Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
000
FXXX12 KWNP 261231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Dec 26 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels.  Regions 2248 (S21E41, Dao/beta-gamma)
and 2249 (S12W41, Dai/beta-gamma) both produced low level C-class
activity.  The largest flare was a C4 at 25/1211 UTC from Region 2248.
New flux emergence was observed on the western side of Region 2248.
Region 2249 continued to exhibit growth through the period as well.  New
Region 2250 (N08W22, Bxo/beta) was numbered today.  No Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for M-class
(R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares for day one (26 Dec).  Solar activity is
likely to be low on days two and three (27-28 Dec) with a slight chance
for M-class flaring.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the forecast period (26-28 Dec) with a chance of
reaching high levels after day 2 (27 Dec).  The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at background
levels (Below S1-Minor) on all three days (26-28 Dec) of the forecast
period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced over the period.  Total
field ranged from 5 nT to 10 nT while the Bz component was mostly
southward reaching a maximum of -9 nT between 25/1542 UTC and 26/0433
UTC.  Solar wind speeds ranged from 405 km/s to 541 km/s.  Phi angle was
oriented in a negative (towards) sector.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to continue to be slightly
enhanced until the onset of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed
stream (CH HSS) on 27 Dec.  Disturbed conditions are expected to last
through 28 Dec.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to a prolonged
period of negative Bz.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled
levels until the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS on day two (27
Dec).  Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on days two through three
(27-28 Dec) with isolated active periods possible.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.