Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
000
FXXX12 KWNP 280031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Feb 28 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels this period. A C1/Sf flare was
observed at 27/2309 UTC from Region 2290 (N19W50, Cro/beta). Region 2290
continued a minor decay trend. Region 2294 (S14W14, Dai/beta-gamma)
produced a B9 flare at 27/0957 UTC, the largest event of the period
prior to the C1 event. Both Regions 2293 (N06E29, Dac/beta-delta) and
2294 showed moderate growth this period, each exhibiting increased
magnetic complexity.

At 27/2304 UTC, ground-based observatories, as well as SDO/AIA 193 and
304 imagery, observed an eruptive prominence (EPL) near the NW limb
located near N22W77. As coronagraph imagery becomes available,
observations and analysis of any CME resulting from the EPL will be
accomplished. At the time of this report, no Earth-directed coronal mass
ejections (CMEs) were detected.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low with C-class flare activity
likely and a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
over the next three days (28 Feb-02 Mar) as Regions 2293 and 2294
continue to develop.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
with a peak flux of 367 pfu at 27/1650 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to persist at normal to
moderate levels for the next three days (28 Feb-02 Mar). The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels
(Below S1-Minor) for the next three days (28 Feb-02 Mar).


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters at the ACE spacecraft were nominal. Solar wind
speeds slowly decreased from initial values near 370 km/s to
end-of-period values near 320 km/s. IMF total field values ranged
between 1-6 nT and Bz reached a maximum southward component of -3 nT.
The phi angle transitioned from a positive (away) sector to a negative
(toward) sector at around 27/0815 UTC.

.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are forecast to remain nominal for the majority of
day one (28 Feb). Following the sector change observed today, recurrence
would suggest solar wind velocities in excess of 700 km/s beginning
towards the end of day one (28 Feb) and persist through day three (02
Mar). The last two rotations also saw Bt in excess of 20 nT and the same
is expected this rotation.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels for the
majority of day one (28 Feb). The anticipated solar sector boundary
change and onset of the recurrent negative polarity coronal hole high
speed stream suggests an increase in activity towards the end of day one
(28 Feb) and persist through day three (02 Mar) with G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm conditions likely.


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.