Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 181231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Sep 18 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 2169 (N05E60, Cao/beta)
produced an M1/Sn flare at approximately 18/0841 UTC, with an associated
Type II radio sweep (est. shock velocity 537 km/s). This region also
produced a C6 flare at 18/0709 UTC. Region 2158 (N16, L=87) produced a
C7 flare at 17/1948 UTC after departing the West limb. Regions 2164
(S13W59, Eac/beta) and 2168 (S21E37, Cao/beta) both exhibited slight
decay, but still managed to produce low level C-class flares during the
period. Regions 2166 (N13W09, Cao/beta) and 2170 (N10E58, Hax/alpha)
both remained stable and mostly inactive.

A coronal mass ejection (CME) became visible off the East limb in LASCO
C2 shortly before 17/1800 UTC, however it was determined to be
far-sided. Due to lack of imagery, it is not known at this time if there
was an associated CME with the M1 flare mentioned above. Analysis will
be conducted as imagery becomes available, but based on initial position
of the source region (Region 2169), any associated CME is likely to be
well east of the Sun/Earth line.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate)) flare activity for day one (18 Sep). Days two and
three (19-20 Sep) are likely to be low with slight chance for an M
flare.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
background levels and the greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at or near background levels (Below S1-Minor) for the next three
days (18-20 Sep). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three
days (18-20 Sep).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained nominal. Solar wind speeds averaged
approximately 380 km/s. Total field varied slightly between 6 nT and 9
nT. The Bz component remained mostly positive between 0 nT and 9 nT
during the end of the period. Phi angle was predominately at a negative
(towards) orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at nominal levels for the
next three days (18-20 Sep).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. An isolated unsettled period
occurred at the period onset, from 17/0000-0300 UTC.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain mostly quiet (Below
G1-Minor) for the next three days (18-20 Sep).


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