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FXXX12 KWNP 041252

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Jul 04 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels this period.  Region 2378
(S16E50, Dso/beta) produced an impulsive M1/1n flare at 03/1251 UTC
which was the largest event of the period.  The region also produced a
pair of C1 flares over the past 24 hours.  Region 2378 underwent minor
trailer spot consolidation.  Region 2376 (N12E16, Eao/beta) underwent
minor penumbral growth in its leader and some trailer spot decay.  New
Regions 2380 (N08W23, Cro/beta) and 2381 (N16E63, Cao/beta) were
numbered this period.  No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs)
were observed.

Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares over the next three days (04-06 Jul).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels with a peak flux
of 5,790 pfu observed at 03/1545 UTC.  The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux remained at background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at high
levels on day one (04 Jul) and decrease to normal to moderate levels on
day two (05 Jul) due to the onset of a co-rotating interaction region
(CIR) preceding the influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high
speed stream (CH HSS).  A return to moderate to high flux levels are
expected by day three (06 Jul) due to CH HSS effects.  The greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout
the forecast period (04-06 Jul).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of a nominal solar wind regime.
Solar wind speeds gradually increased from initial values near 310 km/s
to end-of-period values near 350 km/s.  IMF total field ranged from 1-7
nT while the Bz component was mostly northward throughout the period to
+6 nT with some southward excursions to -6 nT late in the period.  The
phi angle transitioned from a positive (away from the Sun) solar sector
orientation to a negative (toward the Sun) sector orientation at around
03/1830 UTC, remained in a predominately negative orientation through
about 04/0600 UTC and finished the period variable between positive and

Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced late on day one
(04 Jul) through day two (05 Jul) due to the onset of a CIR preceding
the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS.  This coronal hole produced
solar wind speeds in excess of 600 km/s last rotation, but our proximity
to the summer solstice suggests that this feature will be less impactful
this rotation.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to isolated unsettled levels this
period under an ambient solar wind environment.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
day one (04 Jul) due to the onset of a CIR late in the day.  A recurrent
negative polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective midday on
day two (05 Jul) prompting geomagnetic field activity to increase to
active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels.  Field conditions are
likely to decrease to quiet to active levels on day three (06 Jul) as CH
HSS influence begins to subside. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.