Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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692
FXXX12 KWNP 230030
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Oct 23 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2685 (S09E58, Hax/alpha)
remained quiet and stable. B-class flare activity continued at or behind
the NE limb in the vicinity of old Region 2683 (N13, L=111). This region
is expected to return within the next 24 hours. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for
C-class flares, including a slight chance for M-class flares, over the
next three days (23-25 Oct).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux decayed to moderate levels with a
peak flux of 255 pfu observed at 22/1650 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux remained at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
remain at background levels for the next three days (23-25 Oct).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, suggested
weakening influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds
steadily decreased from beginning speeds near 485 km/s to ending speeds
approaching 390 km/s. Total magnetic field strength ranged between 1-8
nT while the Bz component varied weakly between +/- 4 nT. Phi angle
remained predominantly oriented in the negative sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at background levels on day
one (23 Oct) through midday on day two (24 Oct). From midday on 24 Oct
through day three (25 Oct), enhancements from the onset of a recurrent,
positive polarity CH HSS are expected.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
Mostly quiet levels are expected on day one (23 Oct) through midday on
day two (24 Oct). By midday on 24 Oct, an anticipated SSBC from a
negative to a positive sector will precede a CIR thats in advance of a
recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to minor storm levels
(G1- Minor) are likely on 24 Oct increasing to major storm levels (G2 -
Moderate) by day three (25 Oct).



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