Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX12 KWNP 221231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Jan 22 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels due to a C1 flare at 21/1326 UTC from
Region 2628 (N12E28, Dai/beta-gamma).  Slight to moderate growth and
consolidation was observed in Region 2628 while Region 2627 (N06E07,
Dai/beta) had only slight growth in its intermediate area.  Slight decay
was observed in Regions 2625 (N01W55, Hrx/alpha) and 2626 (N08W44,
Hsx/alpha).  No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class
flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) over the next three days (22-24 Jan) due
to the flare potential from both Regions 2627 and 2628.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with
a maximum flux of 2,839 pfu observed at 21/1715 UTC.  The greater than
10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to
high levels on days one through three (22-24 Jan) following elevated
solar wind speeds associated with a positive polarity CH. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated the continued influence of a positive
polarity CH HSS.  Solar wind speed ranged from 475 km/s to 560 km/s.
Total field ranged from 4-9 nT while the Bz component was between +8 nT
and -5 nT.  Phi angle was oriented in a positive (away) sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to gradually decline to nominal
levels over the next three days (22-24 Jan) as CH HSS influence
subsides.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated
active period between the 21/2100-2400 UTC due to persistent CH HSS
effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
day one (22 Jan) as CH HSS influence slowly tapers off.  Mostly quiet
conditions are expected on days two and three (23-24 Jan).



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