Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 280030
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Aug 28 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels over the period. Region 2403
(S15W57, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M2/1n flare at 27/0544 UTC
along with several C-class flares. The region remains capable of
producing higher levels of activity while undergoing slow decay. New
Region 2405 (S21E45, Axx/alpha) was numbered today.

A CME was observed off of the west limb that first became visible on
coronagraph imagery at 26/2024 UTC. This CME appears to be associated
with a filament eruption that occurred near S09W48 between 26/1921 -
26/2047 UTC. WSA-Enlil model analysis indicated that the CME was too far
west to be geoeffective. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels, with M-class flares
(R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) likely and a slight chance for X-class (R3,
Strong or greater) flares on days one and two (28-29 Aug) due to the
flare potential of Region 2403. Activity is expected to continue at low
levels into day three (30 Aug) with a decreasing chance for M-class
flares, as 2403 shows signs of decay.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
with a peak flux of 915 pfu at 27/1705 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels with a chance for high levels on day one (28 Aug) and
increase to normal to high levels on days two and three (29-30 Aug). A
slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) exists
on days one and two (28-29 Aug) due to flare potential from Region 2403
which is in a well connected magnetic position. The chance for an event
decreases on day three (30 Aug) due to a reduction in flare potential as
Region 2403 continues to show signs of decay.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters as measured by the ACE spacecraft remained
enhanced due to the 22 Aug CME that arrived late on 25 Aug. Total field
strength remained relatively steady between 8-14 nT while the Bz
component was predominately southward with a maximum deviation of -14
nT. Solar wind velocities remained steady in the 340-380 km/s range. The
Phi angle remained predominantly positive (away) until a solar sector
boundary crossing into the negative (towards) sector was observed around
27/1620 UTC.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at enhanced levels
through most of day one (28 Aug) due to lingering CME effects and the
arrival of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of a negative
polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind velocities
are expected to increase later on day one (28 Aug) and into day two (29
Aug) as the CH HSS becomes geoeffective. A gradual decline towards
nominal conditions is expected on day three (30 Aug) as CH HSS effects
begin to subside.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm (G2-Moderate) levels
during the period due to the effects of the 22 Aug CME.

.Forecast...
Severe (G3-Strong) storm conditions are expected early on day one (28
Aug) due to lingering CME effects and the arrival of the CIR and
subsequent CH HSS. Activity is expected to wane slightly throughout the
day, but active levels are expected continue into day two (29 Aug) under
the influence of the CH HSS. Conditions are expected to be quiet to
unsettled on day three (30 Aug) as CH HSS effects begin to subside.



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