Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 240030
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Jul 24 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity increased to high levels due to three R2 (Moderate)
flares observed from Region 2567 (N05W80, Dao/beta).  The first of these
events was an M5 x-ray flare observed at 23/0211 UTC.  At 23/0516 UTC,
Region 2567 produced an impulsive M7 flare with an associated 310 sfu
Tenflare.  Shortly afterward, the region produced another impulsive
event with an M5/3b observed at 23/0531 UTC. Associated with this event
was another Tenflare with a 900 sfu maximum as well as Type II (729 km/s
shock velocity) and Type IV radio emissions.

SDO/AIA 304 imagery observed material exiting the west limb at
approximately 23/0516 and 23/0533 UTC.  Two CMEs were observed in
coronagraph imagery lifting off the west limb at 23/0524 UTC and 23/0548
UTC.  Subsequent WSA-Enlil models of the events shows a clear miss to
the west of the Sun-Earth line, however a slight shock enhancement can
not be ruled out.

The leader spots in Region 2567 appeared to be separating while Region
2565 (N03W90, Hkx/alpha) was relatively stable.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance for an X-class (R3-Strong or
greater) flare on day one (24 Jul) due to significant flare potential
from Region 2567.  As the complex of Regions 2565 and 2567 rotate around
the west limb, solar activity is expected to decrease to a chance for
M-class flares with C-class flares likely on day two (25 Jul) and a
slight chance for C-class flares on day three (26 Jul).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels.  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at mostly
background levels with a slight enhancement to near 1 pfu observed after
23/0600 UTC due to significant flare activity off the west limb.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the next three days (24-26 Jul).  There is a slight
chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm for the next two days
(24-25 Jul) due to potential flare activity from Region 2567.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were nominal with solar wind speed decreasing from
approximately 450 km/s to near 365 km/s.  Total field ranged from 1-7 nT
while the Bz component was between +/-6 nT.  Phi angle switched from a
positive (away) sector to negative (towards) at approximately 23/0137
UTC.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be nominal for days one and two
(24-25 Jul).  By mid to late on day three (26 Jul), a positive polarity
CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective enhancing solar wind
parameters along with a possible shock arrival from the 23 July CMEs.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
day one (24 Jul) and mostly quiet levels on day two (25 Jul).  By mid to
late on day three (26 Jul), a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to
become geoeffective along with possible weak shock effects from the 23
July CMEs.



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