Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 271231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Feb 27 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low with only B-class flare activity observed.
Slight growth was observed in Region 2640 (N10E18, Cro/beta) while
Region 2639 (S08W67, Axx/alpha) exhibited decay.  Region 2638 (N16W22,
Hsx/alpha) was relatively stable.  No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels with a chance
for C-class flare activity over the next three days (27 Feb-01 Mar).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
with a peak flux of 957 pfu observed at 26/1755 UTC.  The greater than
10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the next three days (27 Feb-01 Mar).  The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels
throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels during the period.  Solar
wind speed continued to decrease from approximately 450 km/s to near 360
km/s while the total field was in the 2-4 nT range.  The Bz component
was mostly positive through mid-period, but briefly reached -5 nT late
in the period.

.Forecast...
Background solar wind parameters are expected on day one and through
most of day two (27-28 Feb) under a nominal solar wind regime.  By late
on day two, total interplanetary field strength and density are likely
to begin to increase as a CIR in advance of a negative polarity CH HSS
rotates into geoeffective position.  By day three (01 Mar), CIR effects
are expected to give way to CH HSS effects.  Solar wind speeds in the
600-700 km/s range are likely based on the STEREO-A signature associated
with this feature.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet under a nominal solar wind regime.

.Forecast...
Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day one and through most of day
two (27-28 Feb) under nominal solar wind conditions.  By late on day
two, unsettled to active conditions are likely as a CIR preceding a
negative polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective.  Unsettled
to G1 (Minor) conditions are likely on day three (01 Mar) due to CIR/CH
HSS effects.



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