Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 251626
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

VALID 251700Z - 261200Z

...MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA...
15Z OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT OFFSHORE GRADIENT --
LAX-TPH OF 13 MB AND LAX-DAG OF 6.3 MB -- WITH GUSTS STILL OVER 30
MPH AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY IS STILL ANTICIPATED BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
STILL LIKELY BE IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
TO LOW 80S /10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE/ WITH MIN RH VALUES IN
THE TEENS. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION...CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BUT
UNRECEPTIVE FUELS WILL MITIGATE THE OVERALL THREAT. ELEVATED
CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH NO CHANGE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS
ELEVATED AREA.

...WRN OK AND NWRN TX...
SUSTAINED NWLY WIND SPEEDS FROM 25-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. RESULTANT DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND
MIXING WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S -- 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE -- AND DROP MIN RH VALUES TO 15-20 PERCENT.
THESE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A WIDESPREAD
ELEVATED/LOCALLY CRITICAL THREAT. RECENT RAINFALL HAS MOISTENED
FUELS SOMEWHAT BUT THE DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DRY
FINER FUELS AND THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY BE HIGH ENOUGH
TO JUSTIFY DELINEATING AN ELEVATED THREAT AREA.

..MOSIER.. 01/25/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0251 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ERN CONUS...WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW PROGRESSING FROM THE SRN/CNTRL
PLAINS TOWARDS THE SERN U.S. FARTHER WEST...PAC COAST RIDGING WILL
SHIFT EAST AS A CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE THE BAJA PENINSULA DRIFTS N/NW.

...MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA...
THE OFFSHORE-FLOW REGIME IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SUNDAY...ALBEIT IN
A WEAKENED STATE RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE SFC GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A DIURNAL TREND OF MAXIMIZING AROUND 12Z AND
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THEREAFTER. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ARE FORECAST THRU MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT
DIMINISHES AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE.

AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS ENHANCE WARMING/DRYING EARLIER IN THE DAY...TEMPS
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...WHILE RH VALUES WILL FALL
INTO THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE. WHILE THESE CONDITIONS ARE CONSISTENT
WITH A CRITICAL FIRE WX THREAT...A CONTINUATION OF RELATIVELY GREEN
FINER FUELS/HIGH LIVE-FUEL MOISTURE WILL TEMPER THE THREAT SOMEWHAT.
AS SUCH...THE ELEVATED DELINEATION WILL BE MAINTAINED.

...WRN OK AND NWRN TX...
STRONG...DEEP N/NWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH DIURNAL MIXING TO FOSTER
WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AID
IN DRYING...WITH RH VALUES LIKELY FALLING TO 20-25 PERCENT AS TEMPS
WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN TERMS OF
FUELS...CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RECENT PCPN WILL PRECLUDE A
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WX THREAT. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THE
COLLOCATION OF SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 MPH WITH THE LOWER RH
VALUES...LOCALIZED ELEVATED CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF
DRIER FUELS THIS AFTERNOON.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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