Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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738
FNUS21 KWNS 070839
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 AM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FOSTER A FEW AREAS OF ENHANCED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY.  A DEEPENING MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD AN INTENSE BELT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTHWARD TO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...AND EASTWARD TO
MISSISSIPPI.  IN THE WEST...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN TODAY.  AT THE SURFACE...A PERSISTENT HIGH WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN...CONTRIBUTING TO AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT
AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  A SECOND AREA
OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS IN
ADVANCE OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTH TEXAS.

...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
THE PERSISTENCE OF WARM/DRY CONDITIONS AND AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS LED TO GRADUAL CURING AND DRYING OF FUELS IN
COASTAL RANGES OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS A RESULT OF THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH GUSTIER CONDITIONS /UP TO 45 MPH/
EXPECTED PARTICULARLY IN TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS.  THIS WILL OCCUR
AMIDST A VERY WARM AND DRY AIRMASS...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
RISING TO NEAR 80F AND RH VALUES FALLING TO NEAR 15 PERCENT
AREA-WIDE.  THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FUELS IS THE PRIMARY
LIMITING FACTOR FOR AN EVEN HIGHER FIRE WEATHER THREAT...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WHERE FUELS ARE DRIEST.

...WEST/CENTRAL TEXAS...
THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW
APPROACHING 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE TODAY...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE MID 60S TO
NEAR 70F AND RH VALUES FALLING TO 12-15 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH DRY FUELS AND A LACK OF ANTECEDENT
RAINFALL IN THIS REGION...WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.  A COLD FRONT WILL
TRAVERSE THE REGION MID/LATE AFTERNOON...LEADING TO SHIFTING WINDS
AND POSSIBLE COMPLICATIONS FOR ANY FIRE SUPPRESSION EFFORTS THAT MAY
BE NEEDED.

..COOK.. 02/07/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$



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