Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 271637
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

VALID 271700Z - 281200Z

...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
AN ISOLATED DRY-THUNDER AREA IS INTRODUCED FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN WY...NORTHEASTERN ID...AND SOUTHWESTERN MT. WATER-VAPOR
IMAGERY IDENTIFIES A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY TRANSLATING
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ORE/SOUTHERN WA...AND THIS IMPULSE SHOULD
REACH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AS A
RESULT...MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT AND HEATING ON HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD ENCOURAGE ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER TODAY.

12Z BOI AND RIW RAOBS SAMPLED PW AROUND 0.6-0.75 INCHES...AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL BUOYANCY AND A
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE
HIGHLIGHTED AREA. THIS THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW DRY-LIGHTNING STRIKES. MOREOVER...THE FIRE-WEATHER THREAT
WILL BE FURTHER EXACERBATED BY QUICK STORM MOTIONS AND DOWNWARD
TRANSPORT OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...RESULTING IN LITTLE WETTING RAIN
AND GUSTY/ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS.

..PICCA.. 07/27/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN
TODAY. MODESTLY ENHANCED WLY/NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES...AND ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS. HOT/DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDERNEATH THE ANTICYCLONE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
BUT...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK WHERE RH
VALUES WILL BECOME LOWERED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. PWAT VALUES ACROSS THIS REGION ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
REMAIN AOA 1 INCH...AND WETTING RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR WITH MOST
THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER N ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN/CNTRL
ROCKIES...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM
THIS AFTERNOON IN HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
ANTICYCLONE. PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE
FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF ERN
ID...SWRN MT...AND WRN/CNTRL WY. BUT...MID-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK...AND ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO
A MORE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR WETTING
RAINFALL. HAVE THEREFORE NOT INTRODUCED AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM
AREA.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$


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