Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 171540
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0939 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

Valid 171700Z - 181200Z

The ongoing forecast is on track with no changes needed.  Elevated
fire weather conditions remain likely in a large part of Kansas and
extreme northwest Oklahoma.  See the previous discussion below for
more details.

..Cook.. 02/17/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018/

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough over the High Plains evident on water vapor
satellite imagery early this morning will move eastward to the Great
Lakes and OH Valley by this evening. An upstream shortwave trough
should move across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies from
this evening through the end of the period. Surface high pressure
centered over the eastern CONUS will develop eastward off the East
Coast, while lee troughing forms over the High Plains. A separate
surface trough/front associated with the shortwave trough over the
Plains should move southward across KS into parts of northern OK
this afternoon.

...Portions of the Southern/Central Plains...
Strong/gusty northwesterly winds around 15-20 mph, locally higher,
will develop later this morning and afternoon across parts of KS
into northern OK behind a surface trough/front. Although
temperatures should not warm substantially due to some low-level
cold air advection, an antecedent dry airmass and diurnal mixing of
the boundary layer will likely support RH values falling into the
15-25% range for a few hours through peak heating. Dry/dormant fuels
remain in place across most of this region, and the forecast
meteorological conditions support the continuation of an elevated
area for parts of KS into northern OK. The southern extent of the
elevated area (in northern OK) has been trimmed slightly due to
ongoing light to moderate rainfall associated with a southern-stream
shortwave trough. The lack of an even warmer/drier low-level airmass
across this region precludes a critical delineation.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$


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