Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 241752
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS DESCRIBED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION /BELOW/. MOST RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH ONLY A MODEST INCREASE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS STILL EXPECTED AS MIN RH VALUES
BELOW 15 PERCENT ARE JUXTAPOSED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20 TO 30
MPH AND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. GREEN FUELS CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT DESPITE CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS. NO CHANGE WERE NEEDED TO THE ELEVATED AREA OVER THIS
REGION.

...WRN OK...NW TX...
MIXING WITHIN A DRY AIRMASS AND DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WILL HELP DROP RH
VALUES TO AROUND 20-25 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WILL
ALSO HELP INCREASE NWLY WINDS OVER THE REGION WITH SUSTAINED VALUES
OVER 20 MPH EXPECTED. SOME LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE BUT FUELS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY
UNRECEPTIVE...TEMPERING ANY LARGER FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

..MOSIER.. 01/24/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0309 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ERN CONUS...AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW PROGRESSES FROM THE
MISSOURI VALLEY TOWARDS THE SERN U.S. ACROSS THE WEST...NRN CA/PAC
NW RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS THE OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW
SLOWLY TRANSITS NW DURING THE PERIOD.

STRONG...DEEP N/NWLY FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH DIURNAL MIXING TO PROMOTE WINDY AND
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW OK/S-CNTRL KS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE RH VALUES MAY APPROACH 20-25 PERCENT /AIDED BY A
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT/...RECENT PCPN/RELATIVELY UNRECEPTIVE FUELS AND
HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE 50S WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
THREAT. AS SUCH...NO DELINEATION WILL BE INTRODUCED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...LOCALIZED ELEVATED CONDITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

...MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA...
WITH AN OFFSHORE REGIME PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SRN CA. THE SFC PRES GRADIENT IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AND MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS DAY. HOWEVER...SUSTAINED
E/NELY WINDS AROUND 20-30 MPH /WITH HIGHER GUSTS/ AND MIN RH VALUES
AROUND 10-20 PERCENT WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED FIRE WX THREAT ACROSS
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS/TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS.

WHILE PRE-CONDITIONING OF FUELS OVER THE PREVIOUS DAYS WOULD SUPPORT
AN INCREASED FIRE WX THREAT...WIDESPREAD FUEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN UNRECEPTIVE. FURTHERMORE...THE GRADIENT/FLOW WILL BE
WEAKENING...ESPECIALLY BY EVENING. THEREFORE...WHILE METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WX THREAT DURING THE
MORNING/AFTERNOON...ONLY AN ELEVATED AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED
FOLLOWING COLLABORATION WITH LOX/SGX.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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