Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS22 KWNS 211656
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...Central High Plains...

Only modest changes have been made to the previous outlook area,
mainly across parts of western KS and southwest NE. This is based on
latest model guidance regarding where a surface dryline will develop
from central NE southwestward into western KS. Overall forecast
philosophy remains unchanged however. See previous discussion for
details.

..Leitman.. 09/21/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017/

...Synopsis...
Very little change to large-scale pattern is expected on Friday, as
a deep upper trough remains over the West, while an upper ridge
remains in place from the eastern Plains into the Ohio Valley. A
weak surface low is expected to move from the central High Plains
toward the upper Great Lakes through the period, while another low
redevelops in the lee of the Rockies.

...Central High Plains...
Another relatively dry and windy day is expected across portions of
the central High Plains, as low-level south-southwesterly flow
remains strong ahead of the trough over the West. Some modest
moistening is possible compared to D1/Thursday, though trajectories
off of the Gulf of Mexico are expected to remain rather unfavorable
for substantial moisture return into the High Plains. Since
sustained winds are expected to remain in the 20-25 mph range across
a broad area, the fire weather threat will be largely determined by
where the greatest RH reductions will occur. There is a fair amount
of model spread regarding where the strongest drying will occur,
though there is modest agreement that the area from eastern CO into
west-central/northwest KS and southwest NE will see RH values drop
into the 15-25% range, resulting in an elevated to locally critical
fire weather threat. Some adjustments to this elevated area will
likely be needed with time as details regarding the RH forecast are
resolved, and it is possible that some areas will see critical
conditions.

...Four Corners Region...
Dry and windy conditions are also expected to persist across the
Four Corners region on Friday, though some cooling is expected
compared to D1/Thursday. Sustained winds are likely to remain in the
20-25 mph range, but with some increase in RH values expected and
generally marginal fuel conditions across this area, no elevated
delineation has been made across the region.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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