Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 251802

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z


...Portions of the southern high Plains and Trans-Pecos...
Scenario outlined in the previous forecast (discussion below)
remains valid. The only change was to expand the elevated area a bit
more eastward into northwest TX where downslope effects will likely
support minimum RH values in the upper teens to low 20s amidst
southwesterly winds near 15 mph.

A very dry, post-frontal airmass will be in place across the region,
supporting afternoon RH values from the upper teens to mid 20s.
Fuels across the region are also quite dry. However, despite dry
conditions and receptive fuels, winds across the region will be weak
during the afternoon (i.e. less than 10 mph). The lack of stronger
winds is expected to mitigate the fire weather threat, although some
locally elevated conditions are possible.

..Mosier.. 02/25/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017/

Broad cyclonic mid/upper flow will remain established across much of
the contiguous US on Sunday, as a series of impulses transit
eastward across the Desert Southwest, Midwest, and East Coast. In
response, a channel of strong west/southwesterly mid-level flow will
exist from southern Arizona eastward to the Mid-Atlantic. At the
surface, high pressure initially over the southern Appalachians will
shift eastward off the North Carolina coast. Farther west, lee
troughing will persist over the southern high Plains.

...Portions of the southern high Plains and Trans-Pecos...
Breezy conditions should materialize by mid-day across the region,
as deep diurnal mixing (aided by downslope trajectories) results in
sustained winds around 20-30 mph. A channel of dry low/mid-level air
will continue to overspread the region from the west, such that RH
values should fall below 15 percent in many locations. Ongoing dry
fuels will combine with these meteorological conditions to produce a
critical fire-weather threat across parts of the Trans-Pecos.
Surrounding this area, sustained westerly winds around 10-20 mph and
RH values near 12-20 percent will support elevated concerns.

...Please see for graphic product...

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