Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS22 KWNS 211719
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...Eastern Montana into the Dakotas...
The elevated area is expanded to include more of the northern High
Plains, where gusty northwesterly winds within a dry post-frontal
regime will increase fire-weather concerns Saturday. Sustained
northwesterly winds around 15-25 mph and RH values below 30% will be
favorable for more rapid fire spread. Spotty pockets of RH values
below 20% will also be possible, especially along the southwestern
fringes of the elevated area. However, winds will be weaker here.
Therefore, while locally critical conditions will be possible, no
upgrade appears necessary at this time.

...Portions of eastern Nevada...
As monsoon-related moisture slowly advances north across the Great
Basin this weekend, thunderstorm chances will gradually increase
each day. On Saturday, isolated thunderstorms may develop along
higher terrain across eastern Nevada, where fuels remain favorably
dry. Although forecast thermodynamic profiles indicate primarily dry
modes, uncertainty regarding the coverage of storms, as well as a
lack of faster storm motions, precludes the introduction of an
isolated dry-thunderstorm area at this time.

..Picca.. 07/21/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0303 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017/

...Synopsis...
Some slight amplification of an upper ridge is possible across the
northern Rockies on Saturday, in the wake of an upper trough moving
east-southeastward toward the Great Lakes vicinity. At the surface,
an area of low pressure will move from the upper Midwest into the
eastern Great Lakes region, with dry northwesterly flow persisting
across much of the northern High Plains.

...Eastern Montana into the Western Dakotas...
Elevated conditions will again be possible across portions of
eastern MT into the western Dakotas on Saturday, as a dry
post-frontal airmass persists over much of the northern Rockies/High
Plains and west-northwesterly flow continues. Locally critical
conditions will be possible; however, with a tendency for the
strongest winds to become increasingly displaced to the north and
east of areas with the lowest RH and driest fuels, confidence is too
low for any critical upgrade at this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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