Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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518
FNUS22 KWNS 060903
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 AM CST SAT FEB 06 2016

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE NEAR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN SUNDAY...SPREADING AND INTENSE/CYCLONICALLY CURVED BAND
OF MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.  FARTHER WEST...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN...SETTING UP AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT AND
HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
MEANWHILE...A DRY WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT MAY HEIGHTEN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY IN
TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE DAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE GRADIENT SET UP BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEVADA.
 WITH FULL SUN...WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES /APPROACHING 85 F IN A
FEW LOCALES/ AND CONTINUAL DRYING OF FUELS IN THE REGION DUE TO
ANTECEDENT WARM/DRY CONDITIONS...A GRADUALLY INCREASING FIRE WEATHER
THREAT IS EVIDENT.  AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DELINEATION HAS BEEN
CONTINUED FOR THIS FORECAST...WITH SUB-CRITICAL FUELS BEING THE ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR FOR A HIGHER THREAT.

...CENTRAL TEXAS...
10-15 MPH WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
SOUTHWEST OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD
FRONT.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S...RH VALUES
FALLING TO NEAR 15 PERCENT...AND DRY FUELS IN THIS REGION WILL
SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  SHIFTING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO COMPLICATE ANY ONGOING FIRE SUPPRESSION EFFORTS.

..COOK.. 02/06/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$



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