Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC
AGUS74 KFWR 041612
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1111 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
VALID OCTOBER 4 THROUGH OCTOBER 9
...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF TEXAS, BUT THE RAIN OVER NEW
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL MOVE OVER TEXAS BY LATE WEEK...
An upper level ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the
weather over Texas this morning, while a series of storms systems
affect the western parts of the WGRFC area. Through the early
part of the week the upper level ridge over east Texas will persist,
and will continue to produce dry conditions over most of Texas. But
a new low pressure system has moved southward from Oregon into
central California. This low will be moving southeastward to a
position over south central California by Monday morning. As this
occurs additional moisture from the eastern Pacific Ocean has been
streaming northward over New Mexico. This moisture, combined
with upper air disturbances ahead of the main low pressure system,
will continue to result in showers and a few thunderstorms over a
good part of New Mexico and far west Texas through today through
Tuesday. Portions of southeast New Mexico around Carlsbad has
already received in excess of 2.00 inches of rain the past 24 hours.
The closed low over the west will be slow moving and will cross
California and southern Nevada into Arizona by Wednesday morning. So
while east Texas and western Louisiana remain dry, precipitation will
continue over New Mexico, southern Colorado, and west Texas into the
middle of the week. Rainfall amounts in excess of 2.00 inches are
possible over parts of southern New Mexico as a result.
By Thursday morning the upper air low will progress slowly
southeastward into southern New Mexico, and over far southwest Texas
over the Big Bend by Friday morning. As this low moves southeastward
the area of rain will spread or develop eastward into more of Texas.
Fairly widespread rainfall can be expected over Texas Thursday and
Friday, and initially the heaviest rain will be over the Rio Grande
and Pecos River drainages in southwest Texas.
For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts
of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast over a good part of New Mexico and
far west Texas. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 0.50 inch,
are forecast over southeastern New Mexico and far west Texas. MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over west Texas,
the Texas panhandle, southern Colorado and New Mexico.
For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are
forecast over central and western New Mexico into southwestern
Colorado, and over far west Texas. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of
an inch are forecast over western Texas, the western two thirds of
Colorado and almost all of New Mexico.
For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast over the southern third of New Mexico into far western
Texas. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over
western Texas and most of Colorado and New Mexico.
For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
or more are forecast over the southeast two thirds of New Mexico into
extreme southern Colorado, and for the western three quarters of
Texas. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 2.00 inches, are
forecast over southwest Texas near and northwest of Del Rio. MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over all of Texas,
western Louisiana, all of New Mexico and most of Colorado.
Drought conditions have returned to a good part of Texas. Only the
Gulf coast, far west Texas and the panhandle are free from abnormally
dry conditions. Topsoil moisture has decreased over the past month,
which means it will require more rainfall to fall for runoff to
occur. In Texas 65% of the state is abnormally dry, with 18% in
severe drought. In New Mexico, 43% of the state is also abnormally
dry. Some beneficial rainfall will occur from central and southeast
New Mexico into southwest Texas the next several days, and some
runoff will likely occur. Elsewhere, the rainfall forecast over the
next five days will not be heavy enough to cause significant runoff.
WGRFC rivers are below bankfull. The forecast for the rest of
the weekend shows little to no rainfall in Texas, keeping all the
rivers in the area near normal if not below normal levels. The
forecast rainfall for the next 5 days may cause some minor flooding
over eastern and southern New Mexico.
...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.
For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
National Precipitation Analysis:
The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
The US Drought Assessment:
The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: