Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
000
AGUS74 KFWR 291609
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1108 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

                    VALID JUNE 29 THROUGH JULY 4

...A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN IS RETURNING TO THE WGRFC AREA THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WITH NO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
The WGRFC area remains dry and mild this morning and should
continue through the afternoon. A few showers and thunderstorms
have developed this morning along the Red River. Also another small
area of showers and thunderstorms have developed along the coastal
bend. Rainfall amounts are averaging less than 0.50 inch per hour
with this activity. No additional significant flooding is expected
the next 24 hours.

A ridge of high pressure is forecast to remain over Utah and
Nevada through this week. This pattern will allow a short wave
trough move southeastward late today into tomorrow across mainly
northeast and east central Texas. This will bring a slight chance
for showers or thunderstorms, but since the system will be weaker
than the previous one, widespread rainfall is not expected.

By Wednesday into Thursday the ridge to our west will broaden out
and dominate much of Texas, thus most of the region will have
dry weather.  However,  scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected to continue along and near the Gulf coast due to land
and sea interactions tomorrow through Friday. Also, an area of low
pressure is forecast over deep south Texas on Thursday as well, but
significant rainfall is not expected at this time. Elsewhere,
diurnal thunderstorms should persist each afternoon over parts of
New Mexico and Colorado Wednesday through Friday. While only light
rain is forecast for the middle and latter parts of the week,
significant river flooding is expected to continue for many more
days on some of the Texas rivers due to past rainfall events.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for portions of
southeast Texas.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50
inch are forecast for portions of Deep South Texas and northern
Mexico.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts
are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.00
inch are forecast for portions of southern Colorado and northern
New Mexico. Lesser amounts are forecast for portions of Deep South
Texas.

Many lakes, especially over the northeastern half of Texas, are full
and are releasing water according to regulation rules and schedules.
Soil moisture remains high across much of Texas from rainfall over
the past two months.  Rainfall over the next five days in primarily
southeastern Texas may be enough to cause some runoff locally, but
significant, widespread runoff is not expected. Rainfall intensities
and potential runoff will be monitored.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Guadalupe Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Releases at Canyon Lake have a few sites downstream on the
Guadalupe River elevated above action stage.  Downstream,
Bloomington (DUPT2) will continue to recede very slowly
towards minor flood levels in a few days.

...Trinity Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Widespread flooding continues along the Trinity River mainstem.
Flood stages will continue for some time as travel time from
Dallas to Lake Livingston averages about 2 weeks. Lake Livingston
has been able to reduce their releases a little over the last few
days as the lake returns to its normal elevation. Trinidad (TDDT2)
and Liberty (LBYT2) are the two locations still affected by moderate
flooding.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues along the Neches River basin as the very
slow moving water works its way downstream. The slow nature of the
Neches River will keep the river at high flows at many  locations
for several weeks even though the rains have temporarily ended.
There is still significant flood water in Sam Rayburn  Reservoir
which is above the flood pool; therefore releases will continue for
several weeks.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues at Mineola (MLAT2) and  Deweyville
(DWYT2). Toledo Bend is continuing to slowly decrease their
releases.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
All locations along the river are now below minor flood
levels. Flows along the river system will remain well above
normal because of the releases from the upstream lakes

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Soils remain wetter than  normal over much of the WGRFC area.
Higher than normal flows should be the norm throughout the area.
New Mexico is expected to continue to get scattered storms in its
central and eastern parts as upper level disturbances continue to
pass over the area.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS


$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.