Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 211559
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1058 AM CDT SAT OCT 21 2017

                 VALID OCTOBER 21 THROUGH OCTOBER 26

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND EAST TEXAS
INTO LOUISIANA THIS WEEKEND BEFORE IT TURNS DRY NEXT WEEK...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
The upper level ridge of high pressure that dominated our weather
earlier this week that brought dry conditions is now off the coast
of the Southeastern US.  Since this ridge moved eastward, it has
allowed storm systems to our west to move across the WGRFC area.
The first upper level disturbance has moved from central Texas into
Arkansas the past 24 hours. This created showers and thunderstorms
from the upper Texas Gulf coast into much of east Texas and
southwest Louisiana. As this disturbance passed across Texas a few
showers also occurred across portions of central and north Texas.
Over the past 24 hours the largest rainfall totals were noted
over southeast Texas where the region near Anahuac received 2.70
inches. And out west, there was an area of precipitation over
northern New Mexico and Colorado, but most amounts were 0.30 of an
inch or less. The rain the past 24 hours was not heavy enough to
cause any river issues.

A stronger upper level storm system is approaching the WGRFC area
this morning and extends across the Rocky Mountains.  This storm will
move quickly through Texas and western Louisiana tonight and Sunday.
This disturbance will push a strong cold front across the region
with its passage, and showers and strong thunderstorms are expected
along and ahead of this front.  The front will be very progressive
which will hold down rainfall amounts.  Nevertheless rainfall totals
of up to 2.00 inches are possible across northeast Texas late tonight
into Sunday morning with the most intense thunderstorms.  Some flash
flooding is possible across low lying areas where the rain rates are
highest, and river rises are possible. However, no significant river
flooding is expected at this time.  This storm should move east of
the WGRFC area by Sunday afternoon and the rainfall will end.

A ridge of high pressure will be forming west of the WGRFC area later
Sunday. Since this ridge will strengthen and move little through
most of the next week, no rainfall is expected.  A secondary cold
front is expected to move across Texas late Monday, but no
precipitation is expected with its passage.  In fact, the next storm
system and cold front is not expected until Friday, and that will be
the regions` next chance for precipitation.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 of an inch or more are forecast over the eastern two
thirds of Texas into a good portion of Louisiana.  The heaviest rain,
with MAP amounts of up to 2.00 inches, are forecast for areas of
extreme northeast Texas and southern Oklahoma.  MAP amounts of less
than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over the southeastern three
quarters of Texas into Louisiana.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are
forecast for portions of east and southeast Texas and Louisiana.  MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over the
southeastern third of Texas.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the area considered
to be abnormally dry is around 19%, and only 4% of Texas is
experiencing moderate drought conditions (mainly over extreme
northeast Texas). In New Mexico, 8% of the state is experiencing
abnormally dry conditions. The rainfall which is forecast over the
next 5 days may create runoff over portions of north central and
northeast Texas.  If the fast rain rates occur long enough some river
rises to criteria may occur.  Elsewhere, no significant runoff is
expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Higher than normal flows continue on the Rio Grande above the Rio
Conchos confluence.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
The remainder of the rivers across the WGRFC area are currently below
criteria levels. Rain this weekend may cause some rises above
criteria, more likely in northern and northeastern Texas, but
significant river flooding is not forecast over the next 5 days.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

STORY

$$




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