Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 171623
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1122 AM CDT THU AUG 17 2017

                  VALID AUGUST 17 THROUGH AUGUST 22

...AFTER TODAY, THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO INTO MEXICO THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
An upper air disturbance has been moving southeastward from southeast
Colorado into northeast Texas the past 24 hours.  Ahead of this
trough an area of showers and thunderstorms developed over Oklahoma
Wednesday evening, which moved southeast into Texas early this
morning. Some of the thunderstorms produced locally heavy rainfall in
the extreme northern parts of Texas. The leftover thundershowers
are moving across northeast Texas this morning.  Other showers were
noted over portions of Mexico into west central and southwest Texas
the past 24 hours as well. The heaviest rain the past 24 hours was
over extreme north Texas where the largest rain gage readings were
around 4.75 inches near Oak Point and just over 4.00 inches north of
Mesquite.  An outflow boundary left over from this mornings
thunderstorm complex may lead to more thunderstorms across central
Texas this afternoon and evening.

Beginning Friday the trend in the weather pattern will be for the jet
stream to begin shifting northward. As this occurs a high pressure
ridge will develop across the southern U.S., including southeast
Texas. This high will bring a drying trend to especially central and
south Texas after today that will last into next week, while
precipitation is forecast to persist around the periphery of this
ridge.  The best chances for rainfall will be over Oklahoma Friday,
and over our western basins in New Mexico, southern Colorado, and far
southwest Texas Saturday through Monday.  The precipitation will
not pose a mainstem river flood risk for this region.

The region will not see much change in this weather pattern into
next week. The ridge of high pressure will spread out across Texas
and much of the southern U.S. Therefore, with the exception of far
west Texas into Mexico, New Mexico and Colorado, the region will
experience seasonably hot, dry weather. Some thunderstorms may
occur each day as well over the Texas Gulf coast into east Texas
and Louisiana due to the sea breeze.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts
of 0.25 inch or more are forecast for most of west Texas and the
Texas panhandle, and across north Texas from northeast of San Angelo
through Waco TX to near Texarkana.  The heaviest rain, with MAP
amounts of 1.50 inches, are forecast just west of Waco and just north
of Longview TX. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast
over the northern half of Texas, southeast Texas into Louisiana, far
southwest Texas, extreme eastern New Mexico, and southeastern
Colorado.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an
inch are forecast for portions of far southwest Texas into northern
Mexico.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over
northeastern Texas into northern Louisiana, deep south Texas, far
west Texas, parts of New Mexico, and southern Colorado.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an
inch are forecast for portions of south central and southwest New
Mexico into northern Mexico.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an
inch are forecast over extreme northern and eastern Texas into
Louisiana, far west Texas, most of New Mexico, and southern Colorado.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an
inch are forecast for portions of central and southwest New Mexico
into northern Mexico, as well as over southwest Colorado.  MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over the eastern
quarter of Texas into Louisiana, far west Texas, most of New Mexico,
and southern Colorado.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the area considered
to be abnormally dry is around 10%, and only 1% of Texas is
experiencing moderate drought conditions.  In New Mexico, only 1% of
the state is experiencing abnormally dry conditions, and that is in
the southwest portion. The rainfall forecast the next five days may
be heavy enough to produce runoff through tonight over north Texas.
Otherwise, no significant runoff is expected over the WGRFC area.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The headwaters of the Sabine are still experiencing minor flood
levels after continuing recent heavy rainfall. Lake Fork is now over
its conservation stage and releasing enough water to cause minor
flooding downstream.

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Luis Leon reservoir in Mexico is releasing water which will keep the
Rio Grande higher than normal through the Presidio and Big Bend
regions.  Thunderstorms over the next few days may cause additional
brief rises above action or even flood stage since the river is so high
already.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other mainstem sites and tributaries are at seasonal flow levels
with no additional flooding expected for the next few days.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

STORY

$$




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