Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 221610
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1109 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

               VALID SEPTEMBER 22 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 27

...WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
An upper level storm crossing Southern Idaho will eject into the
Northern Plains States.  This feature will help flatten the
persistent upper level ridge that has been anchored over the WGRFC
area the last several days.  Low level gulf moisture will continue to
stream northward, while upper level moisture courtesy of the remnants
of Pacific Storms Odile and Polo hangs over the western half of the
region.  Precipitable Water (PW) values are running 150% to 200% of
normal as result.

A weak cold front will push toward the Texas coast, but should not
have enough push to clear the area.  Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible along the front.  Daytime heating will
help initiate widespread showers with locally heavy rainfall again
for West Texas, Southeast New Mexico, and possibly Northern New
Mexico.

The previously mentioned upper level storm should continue moving
east, allowing the upper level ridge to build and shift west later
this week.  This pattern should help inhibit some of the areal
coverage of precipitation.  However, rain chances will
remain in the forecast for the WGRFC through mid week, with the
exception of Northeast and East Texas, where hot and dry weather will
continue.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 1 to 1.50 inches are forecast for Southern New Mexico.
MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for Deep South Texas,
and for West Texas, Southern Colorado, and the remainder of New
Mexico.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or
less are forecast for Deep South Texas, West Texas, and New Mexico.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning,  MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or
less are forecast for Deep South Texas, the Texas Panhandle, and New
Mexico.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.50 to 1 inch
are forecast for Deep South Texas.  MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or
less are forecast for the remainder of Texas and for all of New
Mexico.

Drought persists but is slowly improving over Texas and New Mexico.
Statewide, New Mexico has no areas of exceptional drought, while less
than 2% of Texas remains in exceptional drought. Severe drought
conditions are impacting less than 40% of New Mexico and 35% of
Texas.  Runoff is expected to continue across far west Texas, as well
as over southeastern New Mexico for the few days.  Runoff leading to
significant mainstem river flooding may occur on the Pecos River in
addition to flash flooding in southeast New Mexico and west Texas.  No
significant runoff is expected over the eastern portions of Texas for
the forecast period.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
..Colorado Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The Colorado River at Colorado City continues to rise in minor flood
category due to local rainfall that fell in the far upper reaches of
the basin.  Due to the location of the nearly 5 inches of localized
rainfall, it takes a while for this water to appear at the gage, and
it is arriving nearly the same time as water from upstream causing the
two waves to nearly combine as it reaches the gage.  Flooding is
forecast to continue through today as the two waves arrive and than
fall rapidly over the next 24 hours.

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The largest concern in the Rio Grande basin continues to be potential
flows from the Rio Conchos out of northern Mexico into the Rio Grande
at Presidio.  Current forecasts are for minor flood levels at Presido
downstream of the International Bridge (PRST2) and at the weir
(PRDT2).  Flows in the Rio Conchos have been stable with little
change.  No significant rainfall is forecast in the Conchos basin for
the next five days.  WGRFC will continue to monitor  the Rio Grande
river conditions and adjust forecasts accordingly.


...Pecos River Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Overnight rainfall created numerous rises on the lower Pecos river in
New Mexico.

Elevated inflows continue into Brantley Reservoir, although Brantley
has adequate storage available such that it will not be making
releases to contribute to existing downstream flooding.  Downstream,
Lake Avalon crested overnight above the spillway, and is slowly
receding.

Heavy rainfall continued yesterday evening and overnight over
portions of southeast New Mexico and west Texas.  Brief heavy
rainfall caused Dark Canyon Draw (DACN5) to rise 15 feet in a matter
of hours.  The flow from Dark Canyon, combined with additional flow
down the mainstem of the Pecos is making its way into Red Bluff
Reservoir.

Red Bluff reservoir continues to rise due to increased inflows. This
morning the lake elevation was 2829.3 with a spillway discharge of
around 2000 cfs.  Current projection is for the spillway discharge to
crest around 20,000 cfs tomorrow morning.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
In a rare reversal, soil states out in Central and West Texas as well
as New Mexico are fully saturated while the basins in East Texas
remain fairly dry.  Unfortunately, forecast rainfall remains over the
Western WGRFC area where flooding conditions already exist.
Therefore, all other basins are expected to remain near normal flow
conditions.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

WALLER


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