Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 261453
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
953 AM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017

                   VALID MARCH 26 THROUGH MARCH 31

...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED NEXT 7 DAYS FOR MOST
PORTIONS OF THE WGRFC AREA...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A storm system will move through the region today, bringing a
chance for severe storms across North and Northeast Texas, as well
as rain and snow showers to higher elevations in the mountains of
New Mexico and Colorado. Up to 0.5 inches of rain will be possible
across Northeast Texas tonight with these storms.

Once the system moves east, drier weather will be in store for the
region on Monday before the return of Gulf moisture and the approach
of a stronger storm system affects the area late Tuesday. West Texas
may see significant convective storm activity from this system by
Tuesday afternoon, resulting in 1 to 2 inches of rainfall by
Wednesday morning. As the upper level system slowly slides eastward,
widespread showers and storms are expected Tuesday night and
Wednesday across North and Central Texas, and these areas could see
up to 3 inches of rain by the time the system exits the area on
Thursday.

This midweek system will tap into deep Gulf moisture and is progged
to be stronger and slower than today`s system, so this will bring
the potential for significant rain, especially to the northern and
eastern portions of Texas, with some snow possible across
mountainous regions of the WGRFC area. A quick break from the
precipitation will follow for the Thursday and Friday timeframe,
but another storm system is expected next weekend.



                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of up to 0.5 inches of rain are possible for far Northeast
Texas.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of up to 2 inches
are possible across West Texas.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of up to 3 inches are
possible across North, Central, and East Texas.

Unseasonably warm, dry conditions so far this March have caused
continued soil moisture loss. This is indicated in the current
U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas which showed the area considered
to be abnormally dry increased to 47%.  Also, 9% of Texas was
experiencing moderate drought conditions and 1% was in severe
drought. In New Mexico the Drought monitor shows 56% of the state
experiencing abnormally dry conditions, with around 7% in the
moderate drought category.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Heavy rainfall is forecast across north Texas during the 5 day
forecast period.  WGRFC is monitoring this situation.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

SCHROEDER


$$





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