Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 271703
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1102 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

                 VALID JANUARY 27 THROUGH FEBRUARY 1

...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE WGRFC AREA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT RAIN ARRIVES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
Warm and dry weather will continue across most of the region
through Thursday, as an upper level ridge remains centered
over the Central Plains. Elsewhere, a low pressure system
was located over the eastern Pacific Ocean, well west of
Baja California. Some very light precipitation was reported
across New Mexico and southwestern portions of Texas, however no
river rises occurred with this activity.

By Thursday, a ridge of high pressure will be positioned over
Mexico as the Pacific storm system moves east into California.
The combination of these systems will push higher amounts of
moisture from the Pacific into the western parts of the WGRFC
area. Since the low over California will be a very slow moving
system into Saturday, light precipitation will develop over
southern Colorado, New Mexico and far west Texas by Thursday night
into Friday. Then as the low gets a bit further east into Arizona
the low will likely produce widespread light rain over the southwest
half of Texas as well by Saturday morning. Some of the forecast
models have a piece of energy breaking off from the main upper level
storm system, and developing into a closed low over the southwest
U.S. This will bring another chance of precipitation to portions of
the Rio Grande and South Texas by early next week. This solution is
past the WGRFC forecast time frame, however it is worth mentioning
at this time, since soils are still saturated across those area and
may cause additional flooding.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts
are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50
inch are forecast for portions of New Mexico and West Texas.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.00 inch
are forecast for all portions of the WGRFC region.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New
Mexico and Texas. In Texas, almost half the state is experiencing
moderate or worse drought (41%), and 11% has extreme to exceptional
drought conditions. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (65%), and 4% has extreme to
exceptional drought conditions. Outside of east and southeast Texas,
soils are generally dry. The current precipitation forecast the
next five days will not be heavy enough to produce new or additional
runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The Trinity River at Liberty (LBYT2) and Moss Bluff (MBFT2) will
remain above criteria for the next few days.  Moss Bluff will
rise to flood stage and hold.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues on the Neches and Angelina rivers.
Flooding near Diboll (DIBT2) and Lufkin (LUFT2) will continue for
the next few days. Attoyac Bayou near Chireno (ATBT2) has crested
and will slowly fall. Pine Island near Sour Lake (SOLT2) is above
criteria, but it will slowly fall through the week.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The Sabine  River at Deweyville (DWYT2) remains steady above minor
flood criteria at this time based on reservoir releases upstream.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Brazos River System and its tributaries have crested and will
slowly fall below criteria over the next few days.  Forecast
rainfall this weekend could generate runoff and new criteria
forecasts later in the weekend..

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other forecast locations are at or near seasonal flows.
Forecast rainfall later this week could generate some runoff,
especially over the coastal basins and basins across Southeast
Texas where soils are saturated. Widespread flooding is not expected
over the next 5 days.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS


$$





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