Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 291613
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1113 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

                VALID SEPTEMBER 29 THROUGH OCTOBER 4

...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
ODILE MOVES EAST. NEW FRONT EXPECTED AFTER MIDWEEK...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

The remnants of tropical storm Odile have moved to the east of the
WGRFC area this morning.  Meanwhile, a new storm system over the
Great Basin and Desert Southwest is advancing east today into the
central and southern Rockies. As Pacific Hurricane Rachel swirls off
the southern Baja Mexico coast, abundant moisture is being streamed
into the atmosphere and drawn northeast across northern Mexico and
New Mexico. This increased moisture combined with a weak Pacific
front is expected to produce numerous showers and thunderstorms
across central and northeast New Mexico this afternoon into the
overnight hours. Much drier air will will settle into the region
Tuesday coinciding with the end of the monsoon season for the
desert southwest.

As a new Pacific northwest trough drops into the central Rockies and
northern New Mexico late Wednesday, an upper level disturbance is
expected to bring a few showers over the northern mountains in New
Mexico with the possibility of a light dusting of snow at higher
elevations. Behind this is a second system moving southeast across
the British Columbia coast that is expected to form a deep trough
extending from North Dakota to the southwest through El Paso. This
system will usher in drier air with little or no precipitation
associated with its passing. What rainfall does occur is expected to
fall in far east Texas and along the Gulf coast.

As the system advances, updates will be provided as we continue to
monitor for any significant changes with the forecast models.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for central and
northeast New Mexico.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts
are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch
are forecast for far east Texas and along the Gulf coast.

Drought conditions are slowly improving over Texas and New Mexico.
Statewide, New Mexico has no areas of exceptional drought, while
less than 2% of Texas remains in exceptional drought. Severe drought
conditions are impacting less than 30% of New Mexico and 29% of
Texas.  Runoff is expected to continue across far west Texas, as
well as over southeastern New Mexico for the few days.  Runoff
leading to significant mainstem river flooding may occur on the
Pecos River in addition to flashy rises in southeast New Mexico
and west Texas. No significant runoff is expected over the eastern
portions of Texas for the forecast period.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Rio Grande Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
With the forecast for drier weather the next few days for northern
Mexico that feeds water into the Rio Grande, the chances of increased
flows has come down from late last week. However, the lakes in Mexico
are still full or filling and are holding significantly more water
than they were a month ago. A return to a wet pattern later this
fall would definitely increase the chances of flooding in the
Presidio to Amistad Reservoir stretch of the river, but we should not
see any increases in flows this week.

Current releases are starting to be decreased and locations along
that stretch that are currently in minor flooding status should start
to see recovery in a few days (PRST2),(PRDT2).

At the southern end of the Rio Grande, the Rio San Juan in Mexico has
also seen increases in their water storage. Marte Gomez Reservoir is
rising due to releases from the El Cuchillo Reservoir further upstream.
It`s currently at 82 percent full (though they can hold more than 100
percent). That is up from 64% full a month ago. No plans for releases
into the lower end of the Rio Grande is expected at this time.

No significant rainfall is forecast in the Conchos basin for the next
five days. WGRFC will continue to monitor the Rio Grande conditions
and adjust forecasts accordingly.

...Pecos Basin...
Red Bluff reservoir  continues to spill and slowly fall with pool
height of 2828.50 ft; current spill is about 1250 cfs.  The reservoir
level is expected to decline to near the spillway crest (2827.4 ft)
by the end of this week.

Downstream of Red Bluff along the Pecos River, flows continue at bank
full and out of bank down through Pecos where debris jams against
railway and highway bridges have retarded the natural flow causing
water to spread out over lower lying areas.  The two flood waves
generated downstream of Red Bluff. The first one from localized, heavy
rainfall runoff and the second from Red Bluff spill, has finally
started to show up further downstream at Girvin (GIVT2), though flows
remain relatively small. Higher flows are expected through Girvin,
but no impacts are anticipated at this time.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other basins are expected to remain near normal flow conditions.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

CAZIER


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