Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center

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AGUS73 KMSR 151732
HMDMSR

Hydrometeorological Forecast Discussion
NWS North Central River Forecast Center Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1132 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

...Precipitation...

Mostly light snow continued across the northern part of the NCRFC
region from eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota to the
northeast half of Wisconsin....where snowfall amounts were two
inches or less and water content of the snow was less than a tenth
inch.

Heavier bands of lake effect snow also continued mainly across the
northern shore areas of upper Michigan and along northwest shores
of lower Michigan where snowfall amounts were up near 5 to 11
inches and water content around a quarter to half inch.  Lighter
snow showers across eastern upper Michigan down to central lower
Michigan averaged 1 to 3 inches, with water content around a tenth
inch or less.

In the forecast... mostly light snow will continue across the
northeast half of the NCRFC region from eastern North Dakota and
northern Minnesota across Wisconsin to Michigan and northern
Indiana.  For this weekend most precipitation amounts will
average a tenth inch or less except near a quarter inch with lake
effect snow of upper and northern lower Michigan.

...Hydrologic Conditions...

Potential for ice jams is the only flood concern currently in the
NCRFC area. The Menominee at Pembine is elevated due to an ice jam
to near what is listed as Moderate flood levels. The river has
stabilized and is slowly dropping with no known impacts.  Several
additional sites in Wisconsin are showing signs of ice effected
stages, so flooding remains a possibility for ice jam-prone
locations.

Due to open water freezing in the northern part of the NCRFC,
a dip of reduced flow is working its way down the main stem
Mississippi. This is the first of a series of "ice bite"
events expected. Water temperatures are around the freezing
mark down to L & D 13 but much open water still exists.

The temperature outlook shows some potential for another deep
freeze around Christmas which would freeze up rivers for the
middle portion of the NCRFC creating a second ice bite event.

Navigation on the Mississippi at St. Louis can be greatly
impacted from sharp flow loss or critically low stages.

For additional and more in-depth information concerning river
forecasts, precipitation and all hydrometeorological information
in the NCRFC area of responsibility, please refer to the NCRFC
web page at:     http://www.weather.gov/ncrfc


Emergency Call Back List: JDT JMP RHR

If no response from this list, call the DOH, SCH or HIC.


$$

...rhr/jmp...





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