Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGNT40 KWNM 221922 CCA
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN...CORRECTION...
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
150 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

IN THE SHORT TERM...WEAK LOW PRES...A 1014 MB LOW JUST SE OF CAPE
ROMAIN AT 12Z WILL SLOWLY MOVE NE PARALLEL TO THE COAST TNGT AND
TUE WHILE VERY SLOWLY WEAKENING. THE GRADIENT TO THE NE OF THIS
LOW...BTWN THE LOW AND STRNG HIGH OVR FAR SE CANADA. THE GFS/
ECMWF/UKMET/NAM FAVOR A SMALL AREA OF 30 KT WINDS JUST AHD OF THE
ATTENDANT WARN FRONT TNGT INTO TUE. E OF THE VA CAPES...THE GFS
HINTS AT PSBL E TO NE GALES ARND 00Z THIS EVENING. THE 4KM NAM
AND THE HRRR ALSO FCST GALES...THE LATTER TO 40 KT. WILL HV TO
WATCH THIS...BUT FOR NOW CNFDC IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO HEADLINE
GALES HERE SO WILL HOLD THE FCST TO 30 KT. AS LOW DSIPTS TUE
NGT...WARM FRONT WILL CONT TO SLOWLY MV N INTO WED WITH SML AREA
OF SE WINDS TO 25 KT.

MAIN WX EVENT IS COLD FRONT FCST TO MV OFF THE COAST WED NGT AND
EARLY THU. BLV WINDS WL INCRS TO GALE FRC JUST BEFORE 12Z THU AS
THE LOW LVL JET INCRS TO HRCN FRC. THE GFS 30M WINDS LOOK SLGTLY
OVERDONE IN THE SW FLOW...BUT STILL EXPECT MINIMAL GALES THU AHD
OF THE FRONT...WITH A BRF PERIOD OF W TO NW GALES BEHIND THE
FRONT ON CHRISTMAS DAY. EXPECT WINDS TO DMNSH TO LGT OVER ALL THE
WATERS BY EARLY FRI AS LARGE SFC HIGH PUSHES E TO THE SRN COAST.
THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS THU...WITH THE GFS BEING JUST A SMIDGE
FASTER THEN CONSENSUS.

IN THE LONG RANGE...THE MODELS AGREE ON LRG SFC HIGH PUSHING OFF
THE MID ATLC AND STHRN COAST LATE FRI INTO SAT. BY EARLY SUN...
THE MODELS COME INTO DISAGREEMENT. THE GFS SWEEPS NEXT COLD FRONT
OFF THE COAST..WHILE THE ECMWF HOLD THE FRONT INLAND. THE GEM IS
FASTER THEN THE GFS WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE UKMET BUILDS A
MASSIVE SFC HIGH. THEREFORE...WILL STCK WITH THE GFS AS A COMPRMS
BTWN THE GLOBAL MODELS.


.SEAS...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN UNDER DOING THE SEAS WITH THE E TO
NE FLOW JUST N OF THE LOW CENTER OFF THE MID ATLC AND SE COAST.
THE 12Z MULTIGRID WAVE WATCH III IS STILL 1 TO 4 FT TOO LOW HERE
AT 18Z. THE ECMWF WAM IS CLOSER...BUT STILL JUST A TAD LOW AND
THESE SEAS WL BE BOOSTED UP OVERNIGHT. WIL STAY WITH THE ECMWF WAM
FOR GDNC THRU 12Z THU THEN SWITCH OVER TO THE WAVE WATCH AS IT
LOOKS BTTR WITH THE HIGHER SEAS IN THE POST FRONTAL W TO NW FLOW.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...THE ETSS FCST A NEG SURGE OF
1 TO 1.5 FT OFF THE NJ COAST LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE ESTOFS
SURGE IS SMILIAR...BUT OVER A SLGTLY LARGER AREA.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU.
.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU.
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU.

$$

.FORECASTER PROSISE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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