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000
AGNT40 KWNM 241337
MIMATN

.Marine Weather Discussion for N Atlantic Ocean
.NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
945 AM EDT SAT 24 JUN 2017

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Atlantic Ocean W of 50W from 30N to 50N.

At 12Z, a 998 mb low, post-tropical Cindy, was centered just off
the coast near Sandy Hook, New Jersey, and located along the
cold front. The latest models are all initialized about 3 to 5
mb too weak with pmsl along the New England and northern mid
Atlantic coasts this morning. Several buoys extending from the
North Carolina coast to New England have been reporting 25 kt.
Buoy 41025 south of Long Island reported 31 G 39 kt with peak 43
kt gust as thunderstorms passed nearby. To account for these
slightly higher winds, blended in some of the GFS first sigma
level winds into the existing wind grids today and tonight.
Otherwise, we will not be making any significant changes to the
previous OPC wind grids. The highest offshore wave heights this
morning are in the 7 to 10 ft range, and extend from the outer
NT2 waters across the Gulf Stream northward to the south of New
England zones. The 00Z/06Z Wavewatch III and the 00Z ECMWF WAM
are generally within a foot of the latest offshore ship and buoy
observations.

---------------------------------------------------------------
...Previous Discussion...

Summary...The 00z ncep surface analysis shows a warm front
extending se across the gulf of maine, with a low pres trough
approaching the middle atlantic coast. The analysis also shows a
high pres ridge over the central and srn nt2 waters. Latest
available ascat hi-res and ascat passes from a couple of hours
ago show 15 to 20 kt winds in s to sw flow over the offshore
waters, with a few gusts to 25 kt.

Models...The 00z medium range models are in very good overall
agreement across the offshore waters through Wed Night. The main
weather feature in the near term is a cold front sweeping se
over the offshore waters today and tonight. Although the models
differ somewhat regarding the strength of the s to sw flow ahead
of the cold front, the gfs 10m solution is a very good median
model solution with strong support from the 00z ecmwf/ukmet. The
gfs has been showing very good run to run continuity over the
past couple of days, so will use the 00z gfs 10m solution for
the wind grids over the entire forecast period.

Seas...The 00z wna wavewatch and 00z ecmwf wam both initialized
well over the coastal and offshore waters. The models are in
good overall agreement in the wrn Atlantic during the forecast
period, with only minor differences noted, so a representative
50/50 blend of the 00z wna wavewatch/ecmwf wam will be used for
the sea height grids for the entire forecast period.

.Extratropical Storm Surge Guidance...N/A.

.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.NT1 New England Waters...
     None.

.NT2 Mid-Atlantic Waters...
     None.

$$

.Forecaster Clark/Scovil. Ocean Prediction Center.


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