Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGNT40 KWNM 230742
MIMATN

Marine Weather Discussion for N Atlantic Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
342 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Atlantic Ocean W of 50W from 30N to 50N.

Current Conditions...The 00z ncep surface analysis shows a
stationary front extending NW to SE across the nt1 and NE part of
the nt2 waters. Otherwise, the analysis shows a high pres ridge
over the offshore waters. Latest available ascat hi-res and ascat
passes from this morning show 15 to 20 kt winds in SE flow over
the SW part of the nt2 area, with 5 to 15 kt winds indicated
across the remainder of the offshore waters.

Models/Forecast...The 00z medium range models are in good overall
agreement across the offshore waters for today through Tue night,
so the representative 00z gfs 10m/30m solution with the
stability smart tool will be used for the wind grids over this
timeframe. The models are showing differences regarding the
timing and strength of the cold front expected to pass E over the
offshore waters for Wed through Thu, with the 00z ecmwf appearing
to be the best median model solution. The 00z gfs also looks
different than the other models because it takes a frontal low NE
across the waters E of the offshore zones for Thu night through
Fri night. The 00z gem looks like an outlyer solution for Thu
night through Fri night, since it takes a very strong low NE over
the Georges Bank waters during that timeframe. The 00z ecmwf/ukmet
are in the best agreement for later Thu through Fri night. In
summary, the 00z ecmwf will be used for the wind grids for Wed
through the rest of the forecast period, except it will be
boosted for Wed through Thu in order to maintain warning
continuity with the previous grids.

Seas...The 00z wna wavewatch and 00z ecmwf wam both initialized
well over the offshore waters, and are in good agreement with
one another for today through Tue night. A 50/50 blend of the
00z wavewatch/ecmwf wam will be used for the wave height grids
through Tue night. The ecmwf wam will be used exclusively for the
grids for Wed through the rest of the forecast period, in order
to be consistent with the preferred ecmwf wind grids.

.Extratropical Storm Surge Guidance...N/A.

.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.NT1 New England Waters...
.ANZ800...Gulf of Maine...
     Gale Possible Wednesday into Wednesday night.
.ANZ805...Georges Bank west of 68W...
     Gale Possible Wednesday into Wednesday night.
.ANZ900...Georges Bank east of 68W...
     Gale Possible Wednesday into Thursday.
.ANZ810...South of New England...
     Gale Possible Wednesday.

.NT2 Mid-Atlantic Waters...
.ANZ915...Hudson Canyon to the Great South Channel...
     Gale Possible Wednesday into Wednesday night.
.ANZ920...Baltimore Canyon to the Great South Channel...
     Gale Tuesday night.
     Gale Possible Wednesday into Wednesday night.
.ANZ905...The Great South Channel to the Hague Line...
     Gale Possible Wednesday into Thursday.
.ANZ910...East of the Great South Channel and south of 39N...
     Gale Tuesday night.
     Gale Possible Wednesday into Thursday.
.ANZ925...Outer Waters from Baltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon...
     Gale Tuesday night.
     Gale Possible Wednesday night.
.ANZ930...Outer Waters from Hatteras Canyon to Cape Fear...
     Gale Tuesday night.

$$

.Forecaster Scovil. Ocean Prediction Center.


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