Marine Interpretation Message
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AGNT40 KWNM 030007
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
807 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

SUMMARY...NCEP 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HI PRES RIDGING OVER THE
OFSHR WTRS...EXCEPT FOR A LOW PRES TROF EXTNDG E TO W ACROSS THE
FAR SRN NT2 WTRS. LATEST AVAIL ASCAT PASSES FROM THIS MRNG SHOW
LIGHT WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE OFSHR AREAS. LIGHTNING
DENSITY PRODUCT DATA AT 2330Z SHOWS SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS INLAND OVER
THE NORFOLK VA AREA...BUT NOTHING OVER THE OFSHR WTRS ATTM. THE
WEAK SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS EXPCTD TO PERSIST THRU MON NITE...WITH
WINDS NOT EXPCTD TO EXCEED 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS NOT EXPCTD TO
EXCEED 6 TO 7 FT.

MODELS...THE MED RNG MDLS ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT ACROSS THE
OFSHR WTRS THRU THE FCST PRD...EXCEPT THE ECMWF BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NRN STREAM ENERGY FOR LATER MON AND MON
NITE. THE CONSISTENT AND REPRESENTATIVE GFS SOLN WILL BE USED TO
POPULATE THE WIND GRIDS THRU THE ENTIRE FCST PRD. AM NOT PLANNING
TO MAKE ANY SIGNIF CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST TREND.

SEAS...WNA VERSION OF THE WAVEWATCH III MDL AND ECMWF WAM BOTH
INITIALIZED WELL IN THE OFSHR WTRS. THE WNA WAVEWATCH III AND
ECMWF WAM ARE IN VRY GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT THRU MON NITE...SO WILL
JUST USE THE WNA WAVEWATCH III MDL FOR THE SEA HT GRIDS.

EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FCST
WITH A MINOR A DISAGREEMENT TWDS THE END OF THE FCST. MODELS AGREE
ON TIMING OF SFC TROF MVNG SE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE
TNGT...THEN MOVE S DURNG THE DAY. HIGH PRES PUSHING S OVER QUEBEC
WILL BRING A COLD FRONT S OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THU NIGHT...
NOTED BY AN INCRS IN NE WINDS TO 20 KT. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS S
FRI AND MODELS CONSISTENT WITH NE SURGE OF 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT.
MODELS AGREE ON DMNSHNG E TO NE WINDS SAT AS THE FRONT DSIPTS.

FM SUN ON...THE GFS BCMS THE OUTLIER...THOUGH THE DFFRNC IS NOT
MUCH. THE GFS TAKES THE WK LOW NR BERMUDA AND DRIFTS IT WWRD SUN
INTO MON WHILE THE UKMET/GEM/ECMWF MAINTAIN A SLGTLY STRNGR SLOWLY
LOW MVNG E. THE GEFS ENSMBL MEMBERS BCM MORE SCT IN TIME WITH THIS
LOW...SO CNFDC IN THE GFS DMNSHS. THE DFFRNC IN THE GRADIENT IS
MINOR AND ALL MODELS MAINTAIN WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. ITS NOTED THAT
THE UKMET/GEM TAKE WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE WEAK LEFTOVR CRCLTN FM
ERIKA AND DVLP A LOW OFF THE N FL COAST...WITH MODERATE EAST WINDS
S OF CAPE ROMAIN MON. BY MON NGT...AS THE MODELS TAKE THIS LOW NW
OR INLAND AND WEAKEN...THE MODELS BCM IN BTTR AGRMNT WITH LGT
WINDS AND A WK PRES GRADIENT AS HIGH PRES EXTENDS E OFF THE MID
ATLC COAST...EXCEPT THE ECMWF WHICH TRENDS TWDS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...MVNG THE SRN LOW OFF TO THE E. WILL STICK WITH GFS 10M
WINDS THE MODEL DFFRNC ARE SMALL AND THE GFS BCMS THE MODEL INBTWN
THE ECWMF AND UKMET SOLUTION EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT WILL USE 30M
WINDS FRI AND FRI NGT FOR THE HIGHER WINDS IN THE NE FLOW.

.SEAS...THE WAVEWATCH II MODEL INITLZD WELL AND THE FCST LOOKS
GOOD. DFFRNC BTWN THE WAVEWATCH AND THE WAM ARE LESS THAN 1 FT.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER SCOVIL/PROSISE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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