Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGPN40 KWNM 060248
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
748 PM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

UPDATE...18Z NCEP SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRES TROF NEAR THE
CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH A WEAK LOW CENTERED OVER THE SRN PZ6 WTRS.
ALSO A HI PRES RIDGE IS INDICATED AS MOVG NE TOWARD THE OFSHR
WTRS...WITH STRONGEST PRES GRADIENT IN THE SRN OREGON AND NRN
CALIFORNIA COASTAL AND INNER OFSHR ZONES. LATEST AVAIL ASCATB
HI-RES AND RSCAT PASSES FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOW A LARGE SWATH OF
30 TO 35 KT WINDS IN NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE SRN OREGON AND NRN
CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH ANOTHER SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS IN NW
FLOW JUST W AND SW OF VANCOUVER ISLAND.

MODELS...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE OFSHR WTRS IS NOT EXPECTED
TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE FCST PRD...AND THE MED RNG MDLS
ARE IN VERY GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT THRU TUE NITE...SO AM GOING TO
USE THE REPRESENTATIVE GFS SOLN TO POPULATE THE WIND GRIDS THRU
THE ENTIRE FCST PRD. AM NOT PLANNING TO MAKE ANY SIGNIF CHANGES TO
THE CURRENT FCST TREND.

SEAS...ENP VERSION OF THE WAVEWATCH III MDL AND ECMWF WAM BOTH
INITIALIZED WELL OVER THE OFSHR WTRS...AND THESE MDLS ARE IN
DECENT OVERALL AGREEMNT THRU TUE NITE SO THE ENP WW3 MDL WILL BE
USED FOR THE WAVE HT GRIDS THRU THE ENTIRE FCST PRD...BUT AS WAS
DONE BEFORE WILL BOOST UP THE ENP WW3 GUIDANCE BY AT LEAST 10
PERCENT IN AREAS OF GALE FORCE WINDS.

EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AT 18Z A HIGH PRES RIDGE WAS OVER MUCH OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS
EXPECT OVER THE SRN CA WATERS WHERE A 1012 MB LOW WAS PRESENT
ALONG W/ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. AN 1806Z ASCAT HIRES PASS
REVEALED GALES OVER THE FAR SE OR WATERS AND FAR NE CA WATERS W/30
KT WINDS OVER MOST OF THE NRN CA WATERS W OF ABOUT 126/127W PER
AVAILABLE DATA 15-25 KT WINDS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE
WA/OR WATERS...W/5-15 KT WINDS OVER THE SRN CA WATERS E OF 124W.

GENERALLY FAVORED 12Z GFS WINDS OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONTINUED
W/PERIOD OF GALES IN THE CA OFFSHORE WATERS INTO SAT AS LOW PRES
TROUGH ALONG THE CA COAST INTERACTS W/HIGH PRES OVER THE EPAC.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LOW PRES TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF
VANCOUVER ISLAND SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. RESPECTIVELY FEEL ITS
REASONABLE TO CONTINUE W/MENTION OF GALES IN THE FAR NE WA WATERS
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW PRES TROUGH ALONG VANCOUVER
ISLAND INTERACTS W/HIGH PRES TO THE W.

.SEAS...FAVORED 12Z NWW3 OVER THE PERIOD BUT BOOSTED SEAS IN AREAS
OF GALES IN BOTH THE CA OFFSHORE WATERS AND NE WA WATERS WHEN
APPLICABLE.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ800...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT.
.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE TODAY INTO FRI NIGHT.
.PZZ915...OUTER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE FRI NIGHT.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
     GALE TODAY INTO SAT.
.PZZ920...OUTER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
     GALE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.
.PZZ825...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO FRI.
.PZZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...
     GALE FRI.

$$

.FORECASTER SCOVIL/HOLLEY. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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