Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
000
AGPN40 KWNM 250843
MIMPAC

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
1243 AM PST Sat Nov 25 2017

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

00z global models in decent agreement through the forecast
period. Will lean towards 00z GFS for the wind grids through the
period, with some modifications.

Models in good agreement with timing and strength of low pressure
and associated cold front to move into the area later today and
tonight. Relatively stable conditions expected ahead of the
front, so will lean towards the lower 10m winds in the grids in
the southerly flow. Winds still expected to max out at 45 kt,
with some gusts to storm force possible.

GFS showing a few area of gales over the northern waters behind
the front late Saturday into Sunday as a secondary low moves
north of the area. GFS stronger with this feature than in
previous run, but has support from the UKMET, so will go ahead
and have minimum gales with this feature.

Models still showing area of low pressure moving southeast into
the northern and central PZ6 waters late Sunday into Monday.
Models showing system weakening as it moves into the region, but
still having gales on the west side of the low as it enters the
waters. Will continue with gales for this package.

Next system to affect waters Mon night into Tue. Borderline gales
still expected over the far northern waters Mon night ahead of
the front. Strong low pressure expected to move north of the area
late Mon night into Tue. Still some differences in the track of
the low, with the GFS being a bit further south than both the
ECMWF and the UKMET, and thus bringing stronger winds into the
northern waters. Last forecast capped winds at 40 kt and will
continue with that trend in the upcoming forecast.

Models trending stronger with winds associated with coastal
trough along northern California Tue night into Wed night. GFS
showing rather strong gales with this system, while both the
ECMWF and the UKMET keeping winds below gale. Will cap winds at
30 kt for now and monitor the situation to see if stronger model
trends continue.


.SEAS...ENP within a foot or two of current observations. Will
lean towards 00z ENP values for the wave grids through most of
the forecast period. Capped seas to 24 ft for the northern waters
late Mon night into Tue with a weaker forecast trend than the
GFS. Will also cap seas to 18 ft along the California coast Tue
night into Wed as not going as high as the GFS with winds along
the coast.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
.PZZ800...Inner Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Gale tonight into Sunday.
     Gale Possible Monday night into Tuesday.
.PZZ900...Outer Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Gale tonight into Sunday.
     Gale Possible Monday night into Tuesday.
.PZZ805...Inner Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale tonight into Sunday.
     Gale Possible Monday night into Tuesday.
.PZZ905...Outer Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale tonight into Sunday.
     Gale Possible Monday night into Tuesday.
.PZZ810...Inner Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale tonight into Sunday.
.PZZ910...Outer Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale today into Sunday.
.PZZ815...Inner Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale tonight into Sunday.
.PZZ915...Outer Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale today into Sunday.

.PZ6 California Waters...
.PZZ820...Inner Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale tonight.
.PZZ920...Outer Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale today into tonight.
     Gale Sunday night.
.PZZ925...Outer Waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point...
     Gale today.
     Gale Sunday night into Monday.
.PZZ930...Outer Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas...
     Gale Sunday night into Monday.

$$

.Forecaster Achorn. Ocean Prediction Center.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.