Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGPN40 KWNM 280341
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
841 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

AT 00Z NCEP FINAL ANAL SHOWS INVERTED OR THERMAL TROF INLAND OVR
CA WHILE HIGH PRES CNTR W OF PZ5 WTRS EXTENDS A RIDGE TWD WA/OR
COAST. MAIN CHANGE AGREED TO BY MDLS NEAR TERM IS RDG CONTG TO
BUILD E INTO PAC NW WHILE INVERTED TROF SHIFTS W TO CST AND
BECOMES MORE OF A LEE TROF...INCRG THE GRADIENT OFF NRN CA AND SRN
OREGON...SPRTG GALES MAINLY AFFECTING TWO INNER ZONES CNTRD ON PT
ST GEORGE. THIS LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A MRGL GALE EVENT WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR GALES NRN CA INNER WTRS WHERE THEY WILL LAST
LONGEST...INTO TUE NIGHT. CSTL TROF SHOWS GRADUAL WKNG THEREAFTER
WHILE RDG CONTS INTO NW WTRS...WITH WNDS BCMG MORE NNE AND DMSHG
TH 25 KT OR LESS WED NIGHT. GFS 30M WNDS APPR REPRESENTATIVE WITH
THE STRONGER NLY FLOW OFF NRN CA AND SRN OREGON BUT AS PTRN WKNS
AND FLOW TURNS MORE N TO NE 10M WNDS LOOK RSNBL WED NIGHT AND
BYND. HAVE NO SCATTEROMETER CVRG OVR THE INNER WTRS AND BUOYS IN
SUSPECTED GALE AREAS.

18Z GFS IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS MDL RUNS FM 12Z AND
THEREFORE FOR THE EVENING UPDATE SEE NO NEED TO MAKE MAJOR
CHANGES.

12Z/18Z MWW3 AND 12Z ECMWF WAM ARE SIMILAR THRU FCST PRD WITH
ECWMF WAM GIVING MAX SEAS 1-2 FT HIGHER IN STRONGER NLLY FLOW OFF
NRN CA...AND HENCE CONTG WITH MDL BLEND WITH GREATER WEIGHT GIVEN
TO ECMWF WAM.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

INVERTED TROF ALG CA SHUD INTENSIFY TNGT INTO TUE WHILE XPNDG NWD
INTO OR TUE AND TUE NGT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES TO THE W OF
THE NRN OFFSHR BUILDS EWD OVR THE WA/OR/NRN CA WTRS TNGT THRU
TUE NGT...THEN BECOMS WKR LATER TUE NGT INTO EARLY THU. MDL GUID
IS SMLR TO EARLIER GUID WITH FEW DIFFS BETWEEN THE
GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/GEM. HAV NOT HAD ANY RECENT SATEL DERIVED WINDS
OVR THE OFFSHR AREAS SINCE LAST NGT. WINDS APR TO BE NR 30 KT OVR
THE ERN NRN CA WTRS...AND SHUD INCRS TO 35 KT OVR THE NEXT SVRL
HRS IN THIS REGION. WL STAY WITH 30M GFS THRU TUE NGT AS COASTAL
TROF INTENSIFIES AND THE STG HIGH PRES BUILDS EWD. DVLPMT OF GALES
OCCURS TUE OVR THE FAR SERN AREAS OF THE OR WTRS FM TUE INTO TUE
NGT. MDLS STILL SMLR WITH WK LOW PRES DVLPG OVR THE CNTRL CA WTRS
NR THE COAST WED...THEN DRIFTING SW AND MOVG W OF THE WTRS LATE
WED NGT AND THU. WL TRANSITION TO 10M GFS WINDS FM ABT WED NGT AND
THEREAFT.

SEAS...THE LATEST BUOY OBS ACRS THE WTRS RANGE FM ABT 5 TO 9 FT
WITH HIGHEST SEAS OVR THE ERN AREAS OF THE CNTRL CA WTRS. WL
BE USING A BLEND OF THE MULTIGRID WWIII AND ECMWF WAM THRU THE
FCST PD WITH A GREATER WEIGHT TOWARDS THE ECMWF WAM WHICH IS
SLGTLY HIGHER WITH SEAS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO TUE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER BANCROFT/ROWLAND. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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