Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGPN40 KWNM 220351
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
851 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

00Z NCEP ANALYSIS HAS A WAVE ON FNT OVR NW PZ5 WTRS HEADING NEWD
WHICH SHOULD DRIVE FNT SE AFTER IT PASSES. BELIEVE FOR MOST OF
OVERNIGHT GALES WILL BE MAINLY IN WA/OR CSTL WTRS WHERE CHANNELING
ENHANCES WNDS AHD OF FNT MORE THAN FARTHER OFFSHORE. AS FNT PUSHES
FARTER SE WED AND WED NIGHT LESSTER CHANCE GALES COULD EXTEND S
PAST PT ST GEORGE. TO THE S NOTE THAT PINCHING EFFECT OF NW WNDS
AGAINST PT CONCEPTION IS ENHANCING WNDS THERE WITH SOME OF CSTL
BUOYS RPTG GUSTS NR GALE FRC. EXPECTING EFFECTS MAINLY CSTL WTRS
AND SOME OF INNER SRN CA ZONES OVERNIGHT. FNT EXPECTED TO WKN AS
IT DROPS SE WED INTO THU WITH A SECOND FNT ENTERING PZ5 AREA AT
THAT TIME ALTHO WEAKER. GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN FCST IS THE FRI TO
SAT LOW PRES ENTERING WTRS FM W AND SW. QUESTION IS HOW FAR S AND
HOW STG IT WL ENTER WTRS WITH MDLS IN TWO CAMPS. ECMWF/UKMET AGREE
WITH EACH OTHER ON MORE NRN SOLN WITH SECONDARY LOW TAKING OVR AND
GFS/CANADIAN FAVORING SRN SOLN. FOR NOW GOING WITH ECMWF LIMITING
GALERS TO PZ5 WTRS...AS PREVIOUSLY FCST.

MDLS...POPULATED WNDS WITH 18Z GFS THRU THU THEN SHFTD TO 12Z
ECMWF FOR REST OF FCST...IN RSNBL AGRMT WITH WPC MED RNG FCSTS.

SEAS...18Z ENP WW3 INIT WELL WITH 00Z SEA STATE ANAL WI 1 OR 2 FT
AND WILL LEAN TWD THAT GUIDANCE NR TERM THEN WITH SHFT TWD ECMWF
AND GREATER MDL DISPARITY TOOK 2/3 ECMWF BLEND BEYONG THU.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CD FNT HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT WHILE MOVG E OVR THE WA/OR WTRS THIS
AFTN. DVLPG LOW PRES WAS ABT 600 NM W OF THE OR/NRN CA COAST AND
MOVG NE QUICKLY. GFS/UKMET/GEM/ECMWF MOV LOW PRES NE ACRS THE WA
WTRS EARLY TNGT AND PASSING NE OF AREA BY EARLY WED. BOTH THE
GFS/GEM ARE STGST WITH WINDS JUST E OF THE OFFSHR WTRS AND GREATER
THAN 35 KT. THE UKMET RMNS CONSISTENT WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR
THE PAST SVRL DAYS. PLAN TO HAV WINDS TO 35 KT BY EARLY TNGT ACRS
THE ERN AREAS OF THE WA/OR WTRS. ALSO WL BLEND 50/50 WWIII ENP
WITH ECMWF WV GUID FOR TNGT AND WED WITH SEAS TO 17 FT. IT APRS
THAT ANOTHER CD FNT OR PERHAPS A TROF WL MOV E INTO THE WTRS LATE
WED AND WED NGT AS ANOTHER LOW PRES LIFTS NE TOWARDS THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTE ISLDS. BY LATE THU INTO FRI AN UPR LOW MOVS SE FM THE
GLF OF AK AND SENDS VARIOUS SHRTWVS SWD FRI AND EWD ON SAT INTO
THE WA/OR AND NRN AND CNTRL CA WTRS. A COMPLICATED SFC PATTERN
DVLPS WITH THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF IN DECENT AGRMT INIT...ALTHO BY SAT
THE GFS IS FURTHER S WITH A SFC LOW WHILE BOTH THE UKMET AND ECMWF
ARE SMLR WITH LOW PRES OVR THE NRN WA WTRS EARLY SAT. THE GEM IS
FURTHER S THAN THE GFS AND WL DISCOUNT ITS OUTPUT. ATTM PREFER THE
UKMET/ECMWF WHICH ARE IN SYNC WITH EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN. WL
USE THE UKMET/ECMWF FM 12Z THU THRU 00Z SUN...THEN BLEND THE
GFS/ECMWF AS LOW PRES LIFTS NE LATE SAT AFTN AND EVENING. A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FM THE W SAT NGT INTO SUN NGT ALG AND
W OF THE NRN AND CNTRL AREAS OF OFFSHR WTRS. GFS/ECMWF ARE SMLR
WITH COASTAL TROF DVLPG ALG THE SRN AND CNTRL AREAS OF CA AT THIS
TIME.


SEAS...WWIII ENP AND ECMWF WV GUID LOOKS RNSBL INIT AND WL BLEND
50/50 THRU THU NGT...THEN USE THE ECMWF WV GUID AS ECMWF/UKMET
LOOK BETTER IN HANDLING COMPLICATED LOW PRES SYS THAT DVLP FRI
INTO SAT. WL USE A BLEND 50/50 OF WWIII ENP AND ECMWF FM 12Z SUN
THRU SUN NGT WHERE THERE ARE MINOR DIFFS WITH MDL OUTPUT.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...NA

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ900...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.
.PZZ805...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT.
.PZZ905...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
.PZZ810...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
     GALE TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT.
.PZZ910...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT.
.PZZ915...OUTER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER BANCROFT/ROWLAND. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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