Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGPN40 KWNM 232027
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
127 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

THE 18Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE FAR
SE N CA WATERS...INTO THE NRN CENTRAL CA WATERS AND EXTENDING SW
AND W. SEVERAL STRONG LOW PRES CENTERS WERE OVER THE GULF OF AK.

THE 12Z MODELS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD FROM TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 00Z MON. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG S OVER THE E PAC BETWEEN
140W AND 150W AND S OF 40N. THE MODELS ALL AGREE ON LOW FORMING
W OF THE N/CENTRAL CA WATERS TONIGHT...THEN TRACKING NE WHILE
INTENSIFYING FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT
NRN OUTLIER WITH THE LOW COMPARED TO THE OTHER 12Z MDLS...THOUGH
IS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY S FROM THE 06Z RUN. GIVEN THE FACT THAT
THE UKMET INDICATES SOME 45 KT WINDS IN THE W QUAD OF LOW AND IS
USUALLY 5 KT LOW AND DO EXPECT SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS TO REACH
THE SFC IN THE UNSTABLE CONDS W OF THE LOW...WILL POPULATE GRIDS
USUING THE 30M GFS WINDS FROM 12Z FRI THROUGH 00Z SUN. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME WINDS TO 50 KT OVER THE OUTER PORTION OF THE OREGON
OFFSHORE WATERS. ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO HAVE SOME STORM
FORCE WINDS OVER THE OR COASTAL WATERS AS FRONT APPROACHES COAST. THE
LOW WILL THEN MOVE RAPIDLY INLAND SAT WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
AREA INTO SUN. LOOKING AHEAD TO LATE SUN THROUGH TUE...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH NEXT STRONG LOW
TO AFFECT THE AREA. THE UKMET AND GFS ARE THE MOST SIMILAR WITH
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR NW WA
WATERS LATER TUE. THE 12Z ECMWF IS STRONGER...BUT FURTHER NW WITH
THE LOW THAN THE UKMET/GFS/CMC. WILL ALSO POPULATE GRIDS USING THE
10M GFS WINDS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WHICH BRINGS GALES INTO THE
WA OFFSHORE WATERS AS WELL AS THE N PORTION OF THE OREGON WATERS
MON INTO MON NIGHT.

.SEAS...THE 18Z SEA STATE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT OBSERVED SEAS
WERE WITHIN A FT OF THE MWW3 FCST VALUES. OVERALL...THE MWW3
VALUES LOOK REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SINCE WILL BE USING
GFS 10M WINDS WILL ALSO GO CLOSE TO THE MWW3 VALUES.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ800...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.PZZ900...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.PZZ805...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.PZZ905...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON.
.PZZ810...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
     GALE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON.
.PZZ910...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
     GALE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON.
.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE FRI INTO SAT.
.PZZ915...OUTER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE FRI.
     STORM FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
     GALE FRI INTO SAT.
.PZZ920...OUTER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
     GALE FRI INTO SAT.
.PZZ825...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...
     GALE FRI NIGHT.
.PZZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...
     GALE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.
.PZZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM PIGEON POINT TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS...
     GALE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER KOSIER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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