Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGPN40 KWNM 251509
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
809 AM PDT MON JUL 25 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

THE RAPID SCAT PASS FROM 06Z INDICATES THAT GALES HAVE BEGUN ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA CST...MOST RECENT ASCAT DATA IS MISSING DATA OVER
THAT REGION. WILL EDIT EARLY GRIDS TO INCREASE WINDS FOR THE EARLY
PART OF TODAY. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN VERY STABLE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH CONSISTANT GALES OCCURING ALONG THE NRN
CA AND FAR SW OREGON CSTS...OTHERWISE NOT MANY CHANGES EXPECTED
FOR THE GRIDS OR ASSOCIATED TEXT FCSTS.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTHERLY GALES APPEARS LIKELY OVER
NE CALIF AND FAR SE OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS TONITE THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE WEEK.

SHORT TERM...A LARGE HIGH PRES AREA WILL PERSIST TO THE W OF THE
WTRS THRU AT LEAST MIDWEEK...WITH A COASTAL LOW PRES TROF ALSO
PERSISTING OVR CALIF THRU TUE...AND EXPANDING N TO SRN OREG BY
WED. A 0441Z ASCAT PASS INDICATE GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS
OCCURRING JUST OFF THE NRN CALIF COAST OVR THE COASTAL WTRS JUST
S OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE REMAINING IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT OVR THE OFFSHORE WTRS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WE
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE 00Z GFS 10M WINDS FOR TODAY THRU WED AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PAST FEW FCSTS. BASED
ON THE LATEST ASCAT PASS WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BOOST THE 10M
GFS WINDS BY 10 PERCENT OVR THE OFF WTRS FROM SE OREGON INTO NE
CALIF WTRS ADJACENT TO THE COASTAL WTRS TO MAINTAIN THE FCST
GALES OVR THESE WTRS...WHICH ALSO ADJUSTS WELL TO THE LATEST
ASCAT PASS FROM THIS REGION. WE WILL LIMIT GALES TO THE INNER
WTRS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE AS THE CHANCE FOR GALES EXTENDING W
INTO THE NRN CALIF OUTER OFF WTRS APPEARS TOO LOW TOO ADD OR KEEP
IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME. CONFDC IN THE GALES SPREADING FROM THE
COASTAL WTRS INTO THE INNER OFF WTRS OF NRN CALIF AND SE OREG IS
NEAR TO ABV AVERAGE OVR THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FCST.

LONG TERM...AS WAS NOTED ABOVE...WE WILL MAINTAIN GALES FOR NE
CALIF AND SE OREG WTRS WED NITE INTO FRI NITE OR VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREV OPC FCST...AND CONT TO RELY ON THE 00Z GFS FOR MID TO
LATE WEEK AS IT REMAINS VRY CONSISTENT AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE NON-NCEP CLUSTER OF MDLS THRU FRI NITE. WE WILL KEEP MAX
WINDS AT 35 KT...WITH SOME WINDS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE BUT MORE LKLY
OVR THE COASTAL WTRS OF NRN CALIF AND SRN OREG. ALSO THE 00Z GFS
BRINGS MIMIMAL GALES BACK TO NE WASH OFF WTRS FRI NITE. WE WILL
KEEP MAX WINDS AT 30 KT OVR THIS REGION FOR THE EARLY AM
PACKAGE...AS IT APPEARS THAT ANY GALES OVR THIS AREA WILL REMAIN N
OF THE OFF WTRS...W OF VANCOUVER ISLAND...LTR IN THE WK. WE WILL
HOWEVER CONT TO MONITOR THIS REGION CLOSELY OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
TO SEE IF GALES MIGHT SPREAD INTO NE WASH WTRS. CONFDC LVLS IN THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST ARE NEAR AVERAGE.

.SEAS...PER THE LATEST OBS AND ALTIMETER DATA...SEA HEIGHTS RANGE
FROM 10 TO 12 FT OFF THE NRN CALIF COAST TO 4 FT OVR WASH OFF
WTRS. THE 00Z ENP WV WATCH III MDL OUTPUT IS RUNNING GENERALLY
WITHIN A FT OR SO OF THE OBS NOTED OVR THE WTRS AT THIS TIME. AS
WE ARE STAYING CLOSE TO THE 00Z GFS FOR WINDS FOR THE EARLY AM
PACKAGE WE SEE NO NEED TO DEVIATE MUCH OF THE 00Z ENP WW3 MDL GUID
FOR THE EARLY AM FCST. WE WILL MAKE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS OR
EDITS TO GRIDS NEAR THE TAFB AND COASTAL WTRS FOR THE AM
PACKAGE...BUT OTW REMAIN CLOSE TO THE 00Z ENP WV WATCH III MDL
GUIDANCE FOR THE FCST THRU FRI NITE.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE TUE NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED INTO FRI NIGHT.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
     GALE TODAY INTO TUE NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED INTO FRI NIGHT.
.PZZ825...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO TUE.

$$

.FORECASTER SHAW/MILLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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