Marine Interpretation Message
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703
AGPN40 KWNM 070932
MIMPAC

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
132 AM PST WED DEC 7 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

The latest ascat pass shows approaching low pressure system with
gale force winds associated...mainly north of the occluded front.
The system is currently near 40N140W. At 5z the strongest winds
are found along the central ca cst over the coastal waters with
winds to 25 kt. Winds to 25 kt are also found moving into the far
western portion of the central California waters as the warm front
approaches. The forecast during the upcoming week as a challenging
one as the global models are not in very good agreement concerning
the track and overall strength of the low as it nears the offshore
waters. The GFS has been the strongest of the models and has been
consistantly indicating storm force conditions moving into the
Washington/Oregon waters. The overall track and speed of the low
has varied...depending on the model cycle used. The CMC is the
model that is the closest to the forecast strength of the GFS. The
UKMET and ECMWF offer a weaker solution...and in the case of the
ECMWF...much weaker than the GFS...with multiple centers. The last
several days OPC has gone with the stronger solution...which in
this case means the GFS. In order to keep as much continuity as
possible with the prior fcsts I will be populating the wind grids
using the GFS throughout the forecast period.

seas...Both the ENP and WAM intialized well across the region.
Given the disparity of the forecast between the GFS and ECMWF I
will pop the wave grids using the ENP in order to be more
representaive and better match the wind field. I will edit the max
waves a few feet below guidance in areas of the highest seas.

Extratropical storm surge guidance...The surge guidance is
showing values of 0.5 to 1 foot along portions of the Washington
and Oregon coasts by late hursday and Thursday night and this
looks reasonable.

.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
.PZZ800...Inner Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Gale Thursday into Thursday night.
     Gale Possible Friday into Saturday.
.PZZ900...Outer Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Gale Thursday into Thursday night.
     Gale Possible Friday into Friday night.
.PZZ805...Inner Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale tonight into Thursday night.
     Gale Possible Friday into Friday night.
.PZZ905...Outer Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale Thursday.
     Storm Thursday night.
     Storm Possible Friday.
     Gale Possible Friday night.
.PZZ810...Inner Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale Thursday into Thursday night.
     Gale Possible Friday into Friday night.
.PZZ910...Outer Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale Thursday into Thursday night.
     Gale Possible Friday into Friday night.
.PZZ815...Inner Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale Possible Friday into Friday night.
.PZZ915...Outer Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale Thursday into Thursday night.
     Gale Possible Friday into Friday night.

.PZ6 California Waters...
.PZZ820...Inner Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale today into tonight.
.PZZ920...Outer Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale today into tonight.
.PZZ825...Inner Waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point...
     Gale today into tonight.

$$

.Forecaster Shaw. Ocean Prediction Center.



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