Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS48 KWNS 050852
SWOD48
SPC AC 050850

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT SUN JUL 05 2015

VALID 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT AN AMPLIFYING
PERTURBATION COULD EMERGE FROM A MODEST BELT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY MID-WEEK...AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST.  IF THIS
OCCURS...IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT IT COULD PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
PRESENCE OF A SEASONABLY MOIST AND AT LEAST MODESTLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT.  HOWEVER...EVEN IF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE WAS
CERTAIN...DISPARITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING POTENTIAL
NORTHWESTWARD REDEVELOPMENT OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER INLAND OF
THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THE
WORK WEEK...WHICH WILL HAVE A CONSIDERABLE INFLUENCE ON ITS TRACK
EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD.

ANOTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE CLOSED LOW NOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST.  ITS REMNANTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
INLAND THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES...AS A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER DEVELOPS AND BECOMES INCREASING PROMINENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ROCKIES REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.  THIS LATTER DEVELOPMENT PROBABLY WILL ALLOW VERY WARM
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR TO ADVECT EAST OF THE ROCKIES/PLATEAU
REGION...THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...AND AT LEAST CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY
CONDUCIVE TO THE EVOLUTION OF ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS.

DUE TO LARGE FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES BY NEXT WEEKEND...AND BOTH LOW
POTENTIAL AND LOW PREDICTABILITY ISSUES IN THE MID TO LATE WORK WEEK
TIME FRAME...SEVERE PROBABILITIES REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

..KERR.. 07/05/2015


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