Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS48 KWNS 210943
SWOD48
SPC AC 210942

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY /DAY 4/...MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BEFORE FINALLY
REACHING THE COAST LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH ITS ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT. WHILE STRONG DEEP-LAYER WINDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN THE MOIST
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN A MORE ROBUST SEVERE
THREAT OVER THE CAROLINAS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA...AND A RISK AREA
MAY ULTIMATELY BE NEEDED THERE IN LATER UPDATES.

DAY 5-8...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW DAY 5 OWING TO INTRUSION
OF CP AIR INTO THE GULF. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RETURN NWD INTO ERN
TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY DAY 6 AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.
BEYOND DAY 6 A LARGE AREA OF CP HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVOLVE OVER MUCH
OF THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND PROMOTE OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE
GULF AND STABLE CONDITIONS INLAND.

..DIAL.. 12/21/2014


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