Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS03 KWNS 130816
SWODY3
SPC AC 130815

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE GULF
COAST REGION...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY...MAINLY OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREA AND POSSIBLY THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
MONDAY NIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN 1/2 OF THE COUNTRY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN
BASE OF THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SERN STATES MONDAY DAY
AND THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. ATTENDANT SFC LOW INITIALLY OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY MONDAY WILL DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY...REACHING THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS TOWARD THE END OF PERIOD.
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SEWD THROUGH THE SERN U.S. AND BY 12Z
TUESDAY SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE SFC LOW SWWD THROUGH THE ERN
CAROLINAS INTO THE ERN GULF. A COASTAL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS MONDAY EVENING.

...GULF COASTAL AREA...

A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SEWD THROUGH THE ERN
U.S. SUNDAY RESULTING IN AN INFLUX OF CP AIR OVER THE GULF. AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFF ATLANTIC SEABOARD...MODIFIED CP AIR WILL RETURN NWD
ALONG A SLY LLJ THROUGH THE WRN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT AND EWD INTO THE
WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST AREA MONDAY. AS BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS RISE
INTO THE UPPER 50S BENEATH COLD AIR ALOFT WITH -16 TO -18C AT 500
MB...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE. POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS AND AREAS OF ONGOING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LIMIT
MUCAPE TO AOB 500 J/KG...WITH GREATEST INSTABILITY LIKELY NEAR THE
COAST WHERE AT LEAST SOME DIABATIC WARMING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONVECTION MAY UNDERGO SOME INTENSIFICATION WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL
CONFLUENT ZONE AS WELL AS ALONG SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL FAVOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WITH AT
LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR
TWO. GIVEN POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS WITH EXPECTED WEAK
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME.

...COASTAL CAROLINAS...

COASTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE INLAND LATER MONDAY AS SHALLOW WEDGE
FRONT GRADUALLY ERODES FROM THE SE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG
EWD-MIGRATING SLY LLJ. WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS
AS THE MOIST WARM SECTOR MOVES INLAND WHERE A STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDING
THE NEWD EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE REGION. GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT...A CONDITIONAL RISK WILL EXIST FOR
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MONDAY NIGHT.

..DIAL.. 02/13/2016

$$


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