Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS03 KWNS 170728
SWODY3
SPC AC 170727

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES.

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NRN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY
FLATTEN ON FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH A CORRIDOR OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE MID MO VALLEY AND UPPER
MS VALLEY. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY FIRST INITIATE AROUND MIDDAY
NEAR THE CORE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS WI. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
MAY TAKE PLACE BY EARLY EVENING FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS SRN
MN AND NRN IA. THESE STORMS WILL MORE LIKELY BE SFC-BASED AND MAY
HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS DUE TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY AND COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS INTRODUCES
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND COULD LIMIT THE
MAGNITUDE OF ANY SEVERE THREAT.

..BROYLES.. 09/17/2014



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