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000
FXAK69 PAFG 112259
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
259 PM AKDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong winter storm is ongoing across the West Coast and
Western Interior producing strong winds, heavy snow, blowing
snow, and blizzard conditions; conditions begin to improve Friday.
Chinook winds have developed in the Alaska Range with gusts up 80
mph possible and strong southerly winds have spread north to
Nenana and Delta Junction. Winds relax tonight. Snow chances
spread eastward across the Interior Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Synoptic Analysis and Forecast...
Aloft, at 500 mb, a 478 dam (decameter) low is in the high Arctic
with a 485 dam low developing northwest of Wrangel Island. The
low northwest of Wrangel Island dives southeast through Saturday
to be 500 NM north of Utqiagvik Saturday afternoon. As this low
dives southeast, a trough stretching south across the Chukchi Sea,
the Bering Strait and to the Aleutians this afternoon marches
east across Mainland Alaska, with the trough axis moving to the
AlCan border by Saturday afternoon. Behind this system ridging
moves eastward across the Bering Sea and southwest Alaska, while
an upper level low in the Sea of Ohkotsk crosses the Kamchatka
Peninsula and moves southeast into the northern Pacific.

At the surface, broad troughing envelops the Bering and Chukchi
Seas, as well as much of mainland Alaska. A 977 mb low 25 NM
southwest of Kivalina splits into two overnight. The original low
weakens to 984 mb as it moves to be between Kotzebue and Noorvik
Friday morning, continuing east Friday into Saturday. The new 981
mb low moves northeast to be 50 NM northeast of Utqiagvik Friday
morning and continues northeast through Saturday. High pressure
builds east across the Bering Sea Friday to the West Coast and
Arctic Plains. A 1003 mb low 100 miles south of Wrangel Island
Friday afternoon quickly tracks east to be 50 NM west of Kivalina
Saturday morning and then moves over Kotzebue late Saturday
morning at 1009 mb.

Models...
The 11/12Z models initialized well against the 12Z RAOBS and
surface obs and remain in surprisingly good agreement with the
overall synoptic pattern. Models continue to struggle with precip
and winds, especially over the Arctic Coast and the Interior. For
winds, opted to blend towards the Canadian to better capture winds
over the Arctic Coast and waters, to better capture the stronger
winds associated with the cold air advection Friday and this
weekend. Leaned towards a blend of the SREF and inherited forecast
for precip and increased pops across the Interior for the shower
activity Friday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
As the strong low continues northeast of the Bering Strait tonight
and tomorrow, strong northerly gales will develop on the west
side of the low, causing blizzard conditions to return to Point
Hope and a blizzard warning is in effect for Point Hope once again
through tonight. A series of fronts will move across the Arctic
Coast Friday into Sunday bringing gusty west to northwest winds of
25 to 40 mph. These winds could produce areas of blowing snow
along the coast. A Winter Storm Watch for blizzard conditions
remain in effect for the Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast and Winter
Weather Advisories may be needed for the remainder of the coast
for blowing snow reducing visibility to one half mile or less at
times. Across the southern Brooks Range heavy snowfall continues
but will taper off from west to east Friday into Saturday. The
next round of snow pushes across the northwest Arctic Coast and
Western Brooks Range Saturday as a low moves east out of Russia
and to Kotzebue.

West Coast and Western Interior...
The deep low that’s been bringing the heavy snow, blowing snow,
and gusty winds has moved northeast of the Bering Strait and
offshore of Kivalina. South of the Bering Strait winds have
shifted to the southwest. West of the low winds have shifted
around to the north. As the evening progresses and the low moves
east, strong northerly winds develop and push south, pushing in
cold Arctic Air. Blizzard conditions are expected to redevelop at
Kotzebue, across the northern Seward Peninsula coast and across
the Bering Strait coast this evening and tonight as those
northerly gales develop. Snow begins to taper off tonight and
Friday from the west to the east. Another weak front moves out of
Russian and to the West Coast Saturday bringing increasing
northwest winds and a chance of snow.

Elevated water levels of 2 to 5 feet above the normal high tide
occur this afternoon as the low moves into Norton Sound. Water
may move over the top of the ice near the shore and may break up
some of the shore-fast ice. Highest water levels are over eastern
Norton Sound with only about 2.5 feet projected at Nome.

Central and Eastern Interior...
A strong Chinook is ongoing in the Alaska Range this afternoon
with southerly gusts in the 60+ mph range have occurred so far.
Expect the strong south winds to continue tonight with gusts up to
80 mph possible. Strong and gusty winds have spread as far north
as Nenana, where gusts of 45 mph have been reported today, and to
Delta Junction, where gusts have been as high as 50 mph. Wind
Advisories are out for these locations. Across the Interior, the
gradient has been tightening, with south to southwest winds
increasing to 15 to 30 mph with gusts of 30 to 35 mph, especially
over the summits; Eagle Summit has been reporting sustained winds
of 30 to 35 mph today. Winds relax across the Interior tonight,
allowing for the Wind Advisories and most of the Winter Weather
Advisories to drop off by Friday morning. Lots of returns noted on
the PAPD radar today but very little has been reaching the ground
so far as the downsloping dry air wins out. Further north and
west, snow has been ongoing, 3 inches of snow was reported at
Atigun from 0900 to 1315 today. Snow chances spread eastward
across the Interior Friday as the upper level trough swings east
and the Chinook turns off. Expect precip to be showery in nature.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...An Arctic low will be setting up
across the high Arctic by this weekend, and will dominate the
larger scale flow through at least the middle of next week. The
global models are now in much better overall agreement with this
general pattern, which looks to include arctic cold fronts
periodically sweeping east across the arctic, with waves of energy
in northwest flow moving from Siberia into the Mainland, which
means continued chances for snowfall at times pretty much across
the Mainland. By late in the week there are indications of a
stronger shortwave trough approaching the western Mainland.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ801.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ849.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ848-850.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ815-827-831-832-834-846-851-852.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ812>814-816-819.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ817.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ818.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ820-821.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ822.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ823.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ824-826.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ825.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ828.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ829-830.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ837.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ839-845.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ805.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ847.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ807-809.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801>803-805-852-858-860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804-850.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806-854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ807.
     Gale Warning for PKZ808.
     Gale Warning for PKZ809.
     Gale Warning for PKZ810.
     Gale Warning for PKZ811-857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816-817.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851.
     Gale Warning for PKZ853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ855.
     Gale Warning for PKZ856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$