Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 062008
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
408 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT MAY
PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
NOT EXPECTED.

WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
HELP FUEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER WI PUSHES EWD ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION TO
FRONTAL SUPPORT...ADDITIONAL LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED BY
MID LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...AND RIGHT-ENTRANCE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAK
LIFTING NEWD THROUGH ONTARIO.

INSTABILITY NOT OVERWHELMING IN PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS...IN SPITE OF
HIGHER DEW POINTS. MLCAPES OF UNDER 1K J/KG ACROSS SRN WI WILL
SPREAD NE ACROSS REGION EARLY TONIGHT. 500 MB WINDS OF 30-40 KTS
MAY SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT WITH
MEAGER INSTABILITY SEVERE WEATHER /IN GENERAL/ APPEARS UNLIKELY.
OF GREATER CONCERN POTENTIALLY IS PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES AND
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 14 KFT THAT MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS/RAINFALL. ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT SHOWERS INTO EARLY
EVENING ACROSS FAR NW LOWER AND E UPPER...MOST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MID-LATE EVENING NW
LOWER AND E UPPER...AND UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT NE LOWER. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM MID 50S OVER ERN UPPER TO 65-70 IN THE FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

FORECAST CHALLENGE: FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING. TIMING THE RAIN
OUT OF THE REGION.

(7/7) TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT BEING OFF THE LAKE HURON SHORE LINE
AND THROUGH ABOUT MBS TO BEH LINE. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT THE RAIN
WILL BE ALMOST OUT OF THE REGION, BY LATE MORNING. MODELS SHOW IN
THE QPF, THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL BE LEFTOVER ALONG AND EAST OF M-33
BY 18Z. FIGURING THAT THOSE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE OUT OF THE
REGION BY 15Z AND THAT BY 18Z THE CLEARING SHOULD HAVE BEGUN IN
THE SE COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WITH THE 00Z 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 7C. WITH THE
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL HAVE GUSTY NW WINDS FOR A TIME UNTIL
THE SUN SETS AND THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S, BUT WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, WON`T BE SURPRISED IF WEDNESDAY
MORNING WE GET REPORTS OF SOME LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 30S.

(7/8) WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN TO THE REGION AND WE
GET BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S, WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE
LOWER 30 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH THE CORE OF
THE HIGH OVER US. LOWER TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE THEY RISE A FEW
POINTS WITH THE SUNSHINE.

(7/9) THURSDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND WE GET INTO THE
WEAK RETURN FLOW, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S, AND MAYBE A FEW 80S AROUND. THE GFS BRINGS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER E UPPER DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE ECMWF IS DRY
WITH NO SHORTWAVE. WITH THE GOING FORECAST DRY, WILL CONTINUE THE
DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MODELS ARE AGREEING THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL
KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH THE
START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO SATURDAY...UNTIL IT MOVES OFF AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ARRIVAL
AND AMOUNT OF THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS STILL UP FOR
QUESTION WITH THE MODELS DISAGREEING WITH THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION...PLAN TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UNCERTAINTY CAN BE
EXPECTED SINCE THAT LOW IS STILL CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
A CHANCE FOR THUNDER SEEMS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

VFR WX THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY CROSSES NORTHERN MI. S/SW BREEZES
AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE A BIT GUSTY TODAY...AND THERE
MAY BE PERIOD OF LLWS THIS EVENING AS SURFACE MIXING DIMINISHES.
MVFR WX /MAINLY DUE TO VSBYS/ WILL THEN OVERSPREAD REGION BETWEEN
00Z (NW LOWER) AND ABOUT 08Z (NE LOWER)...WITH LOWER CEILINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE /WIND SHIFT TO NW/ OCCURRING
ROUGHLY 07-08Z AT PLN/TVC/MBL AND AROUND 11Z AT APN. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS EARLY TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR BY LATE MORNING AS
DRIER AIR AND GUSTY NW BREEZES ARRIVE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

GUSTY S/SW WINDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. MARINERS
CAN EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT...THAT WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO EARLY TUESDAY VICINITY OF LAKE HURON. BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NW AND
GUSTY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ015-
     020-025-031.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ347-
     348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ341-345-
     346.

LS...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH


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