Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 010537

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
137 AM EDT THU SEP 1 2016

Issued at 947 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2016

High pressure continues to build into the Western Great Lakes
region late this evening. Upper level trough is still upstream of
Michigan over Lake Superior. Shallow low level moisture continues
to stream southward out of Ontario into Northern Michigan...
producing scattered to broken low clouds across much of our CWA.
Little will change as we head into the overnight hours. Expect
generally partly cloudy skies and cool conditions as temps fall
into the lower to mid 50s for overnight lows.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2016

On the latest surface weather map of interest, 1028 mb high
pressure was centered over northern Manitoba. Visible satellite
imagery showed partly to mostly cloudy skies across northern
Michigan. The main near term forecast concerns revolve around cloud
cover through Thursday.

The clouds increased across the forecast area this afternoon as
expected. Do expect a decrease in cloud cover this evening and
overnight with the loss of daytime heating. However, a short wave
evident on water vapor imagery will move through the flow aloft
which should tend to bring in more clouds. So overall partly to
mostly cloudy skies are expected. Subsidence/drying (mean 1000-500
mb rh of about 30 percent Thursday afternoon) should lead to
dissipating clouds once again. It will be seasonably cool with lows
tonight in the lower and middle 50s with highs Thursday in the
upper 60s to around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2016

High impact weather potential: patchy frost not out of the
question Thu/Fri nights.

Quiet wx expected as we barrel into the holiday weekend. High
pressure starts off Thu evening over far northern Ontario and Hudson
Bay. This will sink southward, and be largely overhead for Friday
night before easing eastward on Saturday. Any moist return flow of
relevance will still be west of the MS river thru late Saturday.
Primary wx concern is the potential for chilly nighttime temps.

Upper trof will already be downstate by Thu evening. This will be
replaced by prominent ridging dead overhead by Fri night. The sharp
increase in heights will result in substantial subsidence/drying.
Lingering cu and cu remnants will rapidly dissipate Thu evening, and
expect mostly clear skies Thu overnight all the way out to Saturday.
Large diurnal temperature swings will result, and in general will go
slightly above guidance max temps and slightly below guidance min
temps. The latter is notable, as guidance min temps are already down
around 40f at the usual northern lower MI cool spots (Grayling/PLN).
Would not take much for the absolute chilly spots (like Luzerne) to
dip into the mid 30s on either night, opening the door to some
patchy frost.

Will thus add patchy frost to a (rather small) portion of northern
lower MI. Eastern upper has a little too much warm water around it
this time of year; expect min temps to be somewhat milder there,
even in interior sections.

Min temps each night will range from near 50f in some coastal
locales, to mid/upper 30s in absolute coldest interior sections. Max
temps low/mid 70s Fri, 75-80f Sat.


Looking like a quiet start to the extended period for us, with high
pressure overhead as what is now Tropical Storm Hermine moving up
the Atlantic Coast. Temperatures will run well above normal through
the period, around 10 degrees above normal in fact. Ridging aloft
will prevail through the extended, with a strung out front and weak
shortwave moving through bringing some possible rain chances early
to mid-week, with mid-week looking to have the better chances right


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 129 AM EDT Thu Sep 1 2016

...Some MVFR this morning then clearing...

A cold upper level trough is pushing south through nrn Michigan
bringing pockets/bands of VFR cigs. Meanwhile low level
temperatures continue to cool via N/NNE winds for a sufficient
lake response that will develop periodic MVFR cigs and even some
isolated light rain showers. These conditions will primarily
impact APN/TVC/MBL into Thursday morning. Much drier air sweeps
in later this morning into early this afternoon for clearing skies
and some gusty NNE winds. Clear skies expected into Thursday night
with winds weakening due to high pressure approaching.


Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2016

...Choppy waters and gusty...

Gusty northerly winds continue. Lake Michigan and portions of
Lake Huron will see continued advisory winds through Thursday
evening. No rainfall over this time period, with increased lower
level clouds into tonight as temperatures get cold enough to
generate a lake effect response.


.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 AM EDT Friday for LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 AM EDT Friday for LMZ323-342-

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 AM EDT Friday for LSZ321.



SHORT TERM...Sullivan
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