Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 300835
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE CLOUD COVER TODAY...THEN RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM ONTARIO CANADA.
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WAS DRAGGING GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE/STRATUS CLOUD COVER SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE MID 40S/LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE ARX FORECAST AREA.

FOR TODAY...SURFACE/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
ERODE LOW STRATUS CLOUD COVER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY LATER THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OFF NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE 60S.

CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE DAKOTAS/SOUTHERN MANITOBA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A
TROUGH/COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN MN/IA. INCREASING CORRIDOR OF 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED TO PUSH A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING...AND INTO WESTERN WI AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NORTH OUT
OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ENTRENCHED OVER THE PLAINS. PLAN ON HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LATEST GFS/ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD A STRONGER SURFACE LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED CONTINUE
WET PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. PLAN ON SOME ISOLATED THUNDER AS
WELL THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 60S...BUT THEN DROP INTO THE 50S ON
FRIDAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW DRAWS
COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION. LINGERING CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT DIPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS CENTRAL WI...CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW. IN FACT...THE ECMWF SOUNDING SUPPORTS THIS.

PLAN ON CHILLY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LINGERING COLD
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 50S
DESPITE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PLAINS BRINGS A
COUPLE WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN MVFR STRATUS DECK IS DROPPING SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN
WISCONSIN AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO LSE/RST AROUND 8Z OR SO.
THERE IS SOME IFR CLOUD COVER IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT
MOST OF IT RESIDES CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR/UP OF MICHIGAN. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS TO SEE IF ANY OF THE IFR CAN MAKE IT
INTO THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT RST HAS A HIGHER
CHANCE OF SEEING IFR CEILINGS...SO HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOWER
CONDITIONS THERE. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES WITH HOW FAST THIS
STRATUS WILL ERODE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WHETHER IT ACTUALLY WILL
ERODE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT WITH
RST POTENTIAL SEEING SOME IN THE EVENING. THE BETTER CHANCE WILL
COME LATER ON...SO HAVE KEPT THE TAFS DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...HALBACH



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