523
AXNT20 KNHC 082327
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu May 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The majority of the monsoon trough remains inland over Africa,
and extends briefly southwestward off the west coast of Africa
to near 12N20W. The ITCZ then begins near 08N20W and continues to
04N23W to the coast of Brazil near 02N51W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is seen S of 06N between 22W and 46W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The Bermuda subtropical ridge extends west-southwestward across
central Florida and to the north-central Gulf. This is producing
light to gentle SE winds in the eastern Gulf and moderate to
fresh SE to S winds over most of the western Gulf. Seas are 2 to
4 ft E of 88W, and 4 to 6 farther west. No significant convection
is occurring in the basin, but haze due to agricultural fires in
SE Mexico continues to restrict visibility across large portions
of the western Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds will prevail across
much of the Gulf through Thu ahead of a cold front. The cold front
will move off the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf Thu night,
and then across most of the basin through Fri. The front will
slow down and weaken further as it reaches from South Florida to
Veracruz, Mexico, by late Sat. Moderate to locally fresh NEly
winds will follow the front through Sat. Meanwhile, fresh to
locally strong winds will pulse nightly through late week off the
northern and western Yucatan Peninsula. Haze due to agricultural
fires in southeastern Mexico will persist in the western Gulf
through Thu. Patchy fog is possible along the NW Gulf coast
tonight.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A persistent broad mid to upper-level trough is over the western
Atlantic, and stretches southwestward across the NW Caribbean.
Scattered moderate diurnal convection is weakening across the
Greater Antilles, from eastern Cuba to Puerto Rico, as this area
has finally come under the western and sinking-air side of the
upper trough. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
occurring across the SW Caribbean, about the monsoon trough, to
the S of 12N. The upper trough will continue to move farther
northeast of the area through Thu night, with atmospheric
conditions stabilizing in its wake. Abundant tropical moisture
remains prevalent just east of the NE Caribbean, where active
weather enhanced by the upper trough continues. Persistent daily
rainfall across the Greater Antilles and NE Caribbean Islands for
the past several days has left soils at or near saturation, and
river levels high across this region. Please see local weather
advisories for specific information on hazardous local
conditions.

The Bermuda ridge is centered across the central Atlantic and
extends a narrow ridge westward to central Florida. This pattern
is producing moderate to fresh trades over the south-central
Caribbean, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Fresh to locally strong winds
have developed this afternoon across the eastern Gulf of Honduras,
where seas have built to 4 to 5 ft. The remainder of the basin
is under gentle to moderate trades and seas of 3 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the central Atlantic
near 30N45W will maintain a ridge extending westward to support
moderate to fresh trade winds over the south-central and SE
Caribbean through the weekend. Meanwhile, expect pulses of fresh
to locally strong E winds at night across the Gulf of Honduras
through the weekend due to the pressure gradient between the high
pressure and lower pressure over the western Gulf. Gentle to
moderate winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The SW North Atlantic continues to be dominated by a broad ridge
anchored on a weak high center of 1020 mb, centered near 30N45W.
The remnants of a frontal trough meander along 18N to 20N between
38W and the eastern tip of Cuba. The associated pressure gradient
between these frontal remnants and the ridge is producing
moderate trade winds from 18N to about 24N and west of 60W and
from 18N to 21N between 40W and 60W. Low level convergence across
this area is combining with upper support by the upper trough
described above, to produce scattered to numerous moderate
convection from 18N to 23N between 42W and 62W. Seas are 5 to 8 ft
in N to NE swell across this zone. To the west, stable
atmospheric conditions prevail across the Bahamas and Florida,
with no significant late afternoon convection present. Gentle SE
to S winds and slight seas prevail W of 75W and S of 28N, becoming
S to SW winds to the N of 28N.

To the E, a dissipating frontal trough extends from 31N23W to
20N37W, and marks the eastern edge of the Bermuda High ridge.
Gentle northerly winds prevail between 35W and the trough.
Scattered light to moderate convection is along the trough to the
W of 23W, while scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
numerous along the trough E of 23W. E of the trough northerly
winds dominate the region from the Azores to western Africa, and
are locally fresh near the coast of Africa. Long period N to NE
swell is moving through this region, producing seas of 7 to 10 ft
to the N of 20N and E of 50W.

For the forecast west of 55W, High pressure centered over the
central Atlantic will shift slowly NE into the weekend. This will
produce diminishing winds tonight. As a cold front approaches the
U.S. East Coast, fresh to strong winds will develop off northeast
Florida tonight through Fri night. The front will move across
Florida late Fri night into Sat, bringing moderate to fresh winds
on both sides of the boundary. The front will weaken late in the
weekend as it moves east of 65W.

$$
Stripling