National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS62 KCAE 181819
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
219 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm, sunny, and dry day continues for this afternoon.
Moisture then increases for Friday and Saturday as a cold front
moves into the area. With strong heating, diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop. The front
becomes stationary near or slightly south of the area Sunday.
Deep moisture and lift across the area will result in numerous
showers Sunday through early Monday. Temperatures Sunday and
Monday are expected to be well below normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Currently, an upper ridge continues to build over the region as
high pressure remains in control at the surface. This has led
to mainly clear skies, with the exception of some high clouds
over the CSRA, and warm temperatures. As of 2 pm, temperatures
have risen to the mid to upper 80s.

Rest of today and tonight: With some daytime heating left today
and the mainly clear skies, temperatures should top out around
90F across the area. There remains a chance the Augusta area
breaks their record of 91F set back in 1896. Upper ridge slides
eastward, flattening some as it does overnight due to an upper
trough swinging through the Great Lakes into the Northeast. An
associated surface cold front begins to approach the area as
well overnight, which brings increased moisture, cloud cover,
and a slight chance of rain to the upper CSRA late tonight into
early Friday morning. With the cloud cover in place, overnight
lows are expected to remain mild in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A few showers may be occurring or moving into the western forecast
area early in the morning as some shortwave energy moves into the
region.  Most guidance does indicate this batch of morning showers
weakening and dissipating through the morning, so there may be a dry
period through portions of the late morning into the early
afternoon. Additional showers/thunderstorms may develop during the
late afternoon ahead of a cold front moving southward into the
northern Midlands/Pee Dee.  There will be a moderate amount of
instability and shear.  Only expecting scattered coverage, but some
of the storms that can develop could be strong to severe.  Area
remains in a Marginal Risk of severe from SPC, with our main threats
being winds and hail.  Activity should diminish towards Midnight,
with the remainder of Friday night being dry.  Temperatures will
continue to be rather warm (10+ degrees above normal) again Friday,
with highs in the mid to upper 80s, with a few areas pushing 90.
Overnight lows Friday night drop into the low to mid 60s.

The front will be slowly moving southward on Saturday, with another
chance of seeing afternoon showers and storms develop along the
front, mainly during the afternoon. Not as much instability to work
with, and confidence in overall coverage is not high. Model
soundings do show a warm nose developing aloft during the morning,
which will inhibit any initialization. Questions exist as to how
much this will erode during the afternoon/evening, so this may end
up being more of a conditional threat for any thunderstorms. Chances
for showers and even an isolated storm continue overnight.
Temperatures could be rather varied across the cwa with the front
moving through. Northern counties may only reach to around 80, with
the southern cwa will be in the upper 80s.  Cooler air continues to
push into the area overnight behind the front.  Lows should drop
into the 50s for most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Better rain chances are expected on Sunday as an area of low
pressure moves along the front to our south.  Do expect some
Atlantic moisture to move inland over the front through the day.
Showers should be more widespread through the day, and a weak wedge
at the surface may be able to develop.  This will bring our
temperatures down rather significantly from what the area has seen
the past few days.  Highs on Sunday only expected to reach the mid
60s north, to the lower 70s south.  Rain chances will linger into
early Monday morning, then drier air will make its way back into the
region for a good portion of the day Monday, lasting into Wednesday.
Temperatures remain below normal Monday and Tuesday, then climb back
above normal by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Mainly clear skies give way to high level clouds after about
00z. Cloud cover thickens and lowers, but is likely to remain
mid level cloudiness. Some scattered 4-5 kft clouds are possible
after 13z as a system approaches from the west. Guidance
indicates there is a small (~10%) chance of shower activity at
the terminals after 12z which may lower visibilities somewhat,
but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs for now. West
to northwest winds shift to more southwest at AGS and DNL after
21z this afternoon before all terminals become light and
variable to calm over night. West winds of 5-10 kts are then
anticipated after 10z (AGS/DNL) to 13z (CAE/DNL/OGB).

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Saturday. Restrictions anticipated on Sunday
into Monday with possible developing wedge conditions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$