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000
FXUS61 KCAR 170733
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
333 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure approaches crosses the region Wednesday through
Thursday. An occluded front approaches Friday, crosses the
region Saturday, then exits across the Maritimes Sunday. High
pressure returns to the area Sunday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The surface axis of a ridge of high pressure is
currently situated over southern New England, and will continue
to gradually shift east into our area into this morning.
Lingering mid-level moisture has maintained a deck of stratus
across the Central Highlands, but as the high pressure moves in
the resulting subsidence will continue to erode these clouds,
and mostly clear skies will prevail through this morning.

Enough mid level moisture will remain as the high continues to
sit overhead for diurnal heating to result in a field of cumulus
across the area, particularly the eastern half of the
forecast area. This could lead to high temperatures being a few
degrees less than other areas further west. Highs are forecast
to reach up to around 50 degrees across the north and down
through Washington county, while the Bangor area may lift into
the mid to upper 50s. Breezy winds will return, with gusts 20 to
25 mph.

Skies will clear out tonight after sunset, and winds are
expected to become calm. This will lead to a radiational cooling
night prime for temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 20s
across the north and around freezing Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure at the surface and aloft builds Thursday. A
frontal system to the west will be blocked by the ridge and
dissipate before reaching the area. Given dry air, the time of
year and little cloud cover, went above guidance for Thursday
high temps and may need to increase further with a deep mixed
layer. That also affected dew points with reductions below
guidance. Light winds mean the sea breeze can be expected to
develop along the coast Thursday afternoon. The upper ridge and
surface ridges crest over the area Thursday night. Expect
another night with lows in the low to mid 30s. The ridge hangs
on Friday, but high clouds may increase with the occlusion
upstream. Went on the high side of guidance for highs and low
side for dew points again on Friday. The warmest temps will
probably be towards the eastern international border where
sunshine will continue further into the day.

For Friday night, the weakening occlusion is still expected to
cross. Have increased PoPs, but QPF looks meager with no more
than a tenth of an inch of rainfall. There is very little upper
level support.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
In the wake of the occlusion, fairly mild air will remain in
place and highs will shoot towards the mid to upper 50s. A
trailing cold front sweeps across the area during Saturday with
very little in the way of shower activity, but much drier air
and gusty winds. May need to adjust dew points downward for the
afternoon.

An extended period of dry weather begins Saturday and continues
well into next week. Temps look a little warmer than seasonable
due to the expectation of plentiful sun and deep mixing
overcoming fairly cold air aloft. As such, continued to go above
guidance on highs and below guidance on dew points. Also bumped
up wind gusts. The timing and evolution of dry northern stream shortwaves
propagating southward from Canada early next week will have a
lot of bearing on which days have the gustier winds and the
strength of these gusts.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR cigs through the morning, with OVC becoming FEW
to SKC into the early morning hours. Brief MVFR possible at
KFVE early this morning before skies begin to clear in the St.
John Valley. Another round of BKN cumulus will move in through
the afternoon, but cigs are expected to remain VFR. Skies will
clear tonight across all terminals. NW winds 5 to 10 kts will
increase 10 to 15 kts with gusts to 20 kts today. Winds will
become light and variable tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Thursday through Friday...VFR with excellent vis and no cigs
under FL050 expected. Light winds becoming southerly at 10 to 15
kt by Friday afternoon.

Friday night into Saturday morning...MVFR tempo IFR due to cigs.
Southerly winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southwesterly 10 to 15 kt.

Saturday afternoon through Sunday...VFR. West winds 10 to 15 kt
with gusts to 20 kt Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels today
through tonight. Gusts to 20 kts likely through the day today.

SHORT TERM:
No significant weather is expected in terms of winds, seas or
fog. Adjusted winds down slightly as air temps are generally
warmer than water temps through the period.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...
A prolonged period of dry weather with low relative humidity and
gusty winds is expected through next week.

&&


.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...AStrauser/MCW
Marine...AStrauser/MCW