Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCTP 250314
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1114 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Tranquil and dry weather is expected to last into Tuesday.
Periods of rain/showers are most likely during the Tuesday
afternoon through Thursday night period. Seasonal temperatures
are forecast through the end of March.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Strengthening dome of high pressure migrating northeast from
southern Ontario/Quebec into the Maritimes will channel down the
east-side of the Appalachians and provide fair and dry weather
tonight through Monday.

Dry air, light wind and clear skies will result in efficient
radiational cooling tonight. Evening temperatures are already
below earlier NBM guidance and will continue to lean colder than
NBM for min temps (below the 50th percentile), particularly in
the central and eastern valleys where winds should be the
lightest.

Mostly sunny and milder tomorrow with just a bit of thin cirrus
associated with developing warm advection aloft. Model 900mb
temps between 1C and 4C support fairly uniform highs in the
50-55F range. Dry air above a weak inversion in the forecast
soundings supports undercutting NBM dewpoints Monday, closer to
the MAV and NBM10pct values.

Winds from the east and southeast will increase through Monday
afternoon especially over the Laurel Highlands and NW
Alleghenies in response to a tightening pressure gradient over
western PA. Peak gusts are forecast in the 20-30 mph range
(highest on the ridge tops). The wind and minRH combo could have
fire weather implications depending on how much dead fuel moisture
can dry out/cure following the rainfall earlier in the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Southeast winds continue to trend higher over the western and
northern Alleghenies Monday night, as low level jet slides over
Western PA. Gusts up to 40 mph appear possible on the ridgetops
of the Alleghenies based on model soundings. Minimum temps
Monday night in the 30s begin a series of higher lows through
midweek adding +5-10F night/night.

A weakening cold/occluded front is progged to push into the
region late Wednesday. In advance of the front, falling heights
and surging pwats along the southerly low level jet will likely
spread showers into the western part of the forecast area by
Tuesday afternoon, with the focus of showers shifting into the
eastern half of the state late Tuesday night into Wednesday.
The parent shortwave and best large scale forcing is progged to
pass well north of PA, so any rainfall Tuesday PM into Wednesday
should be quite light. Ensemble plumes indicate mostly likely
totals by late Wed of 0.10 inches or less.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A few lingering showers are likely to accompany the
cold/occluded front, as it slowly pushes east across the region
Wed night. All medium range guidance develops an area of low
pressure on the stalling front over the southeast coast, then
tracks it northeast late this week. The bulk of ensemble members
keep this system too far east to affect most of Central PA.
However, enough members track it close enough to support a
chance of rain over the southeast part of the forecast area
Thursday. Plumes indicate if it does rain, substantial amounts
of near 1 inch are possible.

There is a broad agreement among guidance that fair and
seasonable conditions return for Friday, as large scale
subsidence overspreads the state behind the exiting upper
trough. A weak wave of low pressure tracking across PA could
produce a bit of light rain or showers Sat or Sat night.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions persist through the 00Z TAF period with mainly
clear skies expected through most of Monday. A tightening
pressure gradient across the western mountains will lead to
increasing southeasterly winds into the morning with gusts of 20
to 25 knots possible by the early afternoon for western sites.
Some high clouds will begin to move in from the west Monday
afternoon as warm advection increases ahead of an upper level
trough that will move towards Central PA into Tuesday.

Outlook...

Mon night-Tue...Increasing clouds.

Tue night-Wed...Rain/low cigs expected.

Wed night-Fri...Improving conds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Depending on how much dead fuel moisture can dry out, minRH and
winds suggest the potential for an elevated risk of wildfire
spread mainly over western portions of central PA including the
Allegheny Plateau and ANF regions/districts.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald
AVIATION...Bauco
FIRE WEATHER...Steinbugl


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.