826
FXUS63 KDLH 051137
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
637 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog this morning will lift between 8-9 AM for most.

- Elevated fire weather conditions Monday with breezy southeast
  wind and humidity dropping to 30-40 percent for most.

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms develops Monday
  night and continues through Thursday. Highest chances will be
  Monday night into Tuesday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Today into Monday...

Patchy fog was occurring this morning under high pressure and
light winds. The fog will lift for most by 9AM. There was a
relatively narrow band of clouds moving east through western
into northern Minnesota and these will continue but should
decrease this afternoon. There will be some additional cumulus
that develops but skies will be partly to mostly sunny. Highs
will be in the sixties for most areas.

Mostly clear skies will occur tonight with low in the mid-
thirties to mid-forties.

Shortwave ridging will move through Northland Monday with strong
low pressure over the Northern Plains. We kept Monday dry, going
with consensus that keeps the showers west or south of the
Northland until Monday night. The pressure gradient will
strengthen Monday between the low to the west and high pressure
off to the east and gusty southeast will develop. Winds around
Lake Superior will be off lake and strongest in the Twin Ports
area. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Monday with
the gusty winds and humidity values dropping to 30 to 40% for
most. Highs Monday will be in the mid- sixties to around seventy
but it will be much cooler with the breezy off lake winds
around Lake Superior.

Monday night through Thursday...

Showers and some thunderstorms will develop Monday night and
continue into Tuesday evening with increasing forcing from the
upper low and surface low/fronts. A southerly 850MB low level
jet of 40-50knots is expected to aid in moisture transport and
PWAT values are forecast to climb to 1.25" Monday night into
Tuesday. Forecast instability isn`t very high but some
thunderstorms will occur through Tuesday. Severe storms are not
expected. Rainfall amounts Monday night into Tuesday night range
from a third of an inch to a but more than an inch. Ensemble
models have the highest chances for exceeding 1" of rain at
20-40% up the I35 corridor and along the North Shore. Some
locally higher amounts will be possible, especially with the
thunderstorms.

The upper low will remain over the Northern Plains into
Wednesday then it will shift east and south late week week.
Showers will remain over the Northland into at least Thursday
although rainfall amounts will be lighter compared to the Monday
night into Tuesday evening period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Patchy fog will lift by 14Z then VFR conditions are expected
through the period. There were some lower VFR ceilings moving
through portions of the Northland and that will continue through
late morning or early afternoon with some additional cumulus in
developing in spots. Winds for most will be at or lower than 10
mph through the period.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Winds are expected to be at or below 15 knots today into
tonight. There may be some patchy fog in spots but it`s expected
to lift this morning.

Winds will be easterly on Monday and they will strengthen
through the day as the area will be between strong low pressure
over the Northern Plains and high pressure to the east. Winds
will strengthen further on Tuesday. Conditions will become
hazardous, mainly for smaller vessels Monday roughly from Silver
Bay to the Twin Ports to Port Wing. As winds increase Monday
night into Tuesday, hazardous conditions will become more
widespread.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Melde
AVIATION...Melde
MARINE...Melde