Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 020824
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
324 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014

MAIN CONCERN THIS WEEKEND IS THE COLD FRONT THAT SLOWLY DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.  THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL BE WARM AND PLEASANT FOR THE
NORTHLAND...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S NEARLY EVERYWHERE...WITH JUST ENOUGH HUMIDITY TO MAKE IT FEEL A
LITTLE MUGGY.  THIS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE A LOW TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...BUT A LACK OF SHEAR IS GOING TO
LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS TO A MORE AIRMASS TYPE OF STORMS...PULSY IN
NATURE AND SEVERE RISK LOOKS LOW.  THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO KEEP
CONVECTION FESTERING ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT.  THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS OF AN MCS FORMING DURING THE EVENING OUT OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THAT SLOWLY ROLLS EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.  THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DECAY OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS
LIKELY TO STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO FORM THERE
IN THE AFTERNOON.  SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT BETTER THEN...SO THERE MAY BE
SOME BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT TO REMAIN
MILD...BEING GENERALLY IN THE 50S.  SUNDAY HIGHS TO BE COOLER THAN
TODAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN REDUCING THE SUNSHINE AND
THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS MOVING IN.  THUS...FOR NOW HAVE GONE
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S NORTH TO NEAR 80 SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS AND MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

WE KEPT SOME SMALL POPS OVER PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHEAST CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE MODELS INDICATE A SMALL THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
THERE AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING.

MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF A FEW
DAYS AGO...WHICH IS FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN WELL TO THE
SOUTH AND FOR HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO BUILD FURTHER SOUTH
INTO THE REGION. WE HAVE LOW POPS OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH
MID WEEK. A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK.
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
FURTHER NORTH AS A SHORTWAVE OR TWO MAY IMPACT THE REGION.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS FURTHER NORTH LOOKS TO BE
QUITE LIMITED.

WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY/FRIDAY OVER MUCH
OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT...COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LOW.

HIGHS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE SEVENTIES. AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD KEEPING LAKESIDE
AREAS A BIT COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014

PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT ALL OF THE TERMINALS TEMPORARILY THROUGH
ABOUT 12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
IT AS IT DROPS SEWD. TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE ARE DIFFICULT TO
PIN DOWN ATTM AND HAVE A VCTS MENTION. THE STORMS WILL PERCOLATE
THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL 06Z/03.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  80  56  74  52 /  20  50  40  10
INL  80  53  77  47 /  40  40  10  10
BRD  83  58  78  56 /  20  50  40  20
HYR  81  55  79  54 /  20  50  50  30
ASX  78  55  74  53 /  20  50  50  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GSF/MELDE





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