222
FXUS64 KFWD 301851
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
151 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday/

For most, just a dry, humid, and warm forecast through tonight.
Isolated showers driven by some weak ascent from an approaching
shortwave and enhanced warm advection already were developing just
north of the Red River. However, we`ll be watching areas to our
west and northwest later this afternoon along a surface dryline
which is currently west of North-Central Texas near the TX/NM
state line. As this feature mixes eastward into Northwest and
West-Central TX, as well as the western Big Country, any weak low
level cap should easily be broken as a stronger shortwave arrives
from West TX and Northeast Mexico during peak heating. Our Big
Country areas are also seeing the best insolation and should peak
around 90 degrees later this afternoon, so any isolated to widely
scattered storms should be able to maintain into mainly western
North TX. The bulk of any 15%-30% coverage of storms should
remain primarily north of I-20 to parts of the Red River possibly
as far east as I-35 or even Hwy 75 and the Sherman-Denison areas
as we progress into and through the evening hours.

The best surface-based CAPE between 1500-2000 J/KG will correlate
with steepening lapse rates > 7 degC/km. With effective
northwesterly deep layer shear between 30-40 kts, some discrete to
possibly a multi-cellular storm mode are being advertised at
different magnitudes by the CAMs. Isolated strong to brief severe
storms with primarily large hail and gusty/damaging winds would be
the primary hazards. However, a tornado or two can`t be
completely ruled out west of US-281 with more discrete storms and
rich surface dew points near 70F resulting in relatively low LCLs
within the updraft regions of said storms. Any storms that can
last as far east as I-35 and particularly the northern Metroplex
to the Red Red River would likely be sub-severe, but remain strong
as they enter a relatively more stable boundary layer and weaker
mid level lapse rates aloft. Gusty winds and smaller hail would
still be possible with more robust storms. Otherwise, any anvil
debris will combine with another overnight stratus surge and
southerly winds remaining up between 10 and 20 mph for for breezy
and humid night with lows Wednesday remaining in the mid 60s in
our East TX areas to near/around 70 degrees elsewhere.

Patchy fog is possible through mid morning Wednesday, but it
would be very similar to this past morning and nothing that would
cause much delay in travel or outdoor plans. Wednesday will see
plenty of cloudiness that will keep highs capped in the lower to
mid 80s for most, except the Big Country areas once again pushing
the 90 degree mark. Though ripples of mid level energy maintain
overhead, the slow warm up will likely help the EML/low level
capping inversion remain strong enough to keep chances for showers
and storm fairly low until late in the afternoon. A few strong to
severe storms may evolve across Central Texas as a strong
southern stream shortwave moves across South-Central into E and SE
TX and helps to enhance large-scale ascent across these areas
where a deeper moist axis will exist. So at least an isolated
severe weather risk for especially large hail would occur as this
shortwave helps steepen mid level lapse to/above 8 degC/km. 0-1km
S flow around 10-15 kts also would suggest that a tornado would
be possible as well late in the day, though more widespread storms
will likely hold off until Wednesday night as another shortwave
further N interacts with a strong LLJ and increasing low level
warm advection. This will be discussed in further detail in the
long term discussion later this afternoon.

05/Marty

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 346 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024/
/Wednesday Onward/

We will be in the open warm sector of a deepening leeside low near
the OK/TX Panhandles Wednesday. A north moving cluster of showers
is expected to develop over the Texas Coastal Plains in the late
morning/early afternoon. Diurnal heating may (40-50% chance) erode
the cap, allowing for scattered storms to move into Central Texas
in the afternoon. Weak deep-layer shear should limit the ability
for the storms to organize, but moderate instability and steep
mid-level lapse rates support the potential for a few storms to
produce small to marginally severe hail. It`s worth noting that
the low-level shear has a favorable directional profile, but weak
magnitude. If the wind speeds come in stronger (i.e. the low to
our west deepens more than we expect), the severe threat would
consequently increase.

Meanwhile, a dry line will sharpen over West Texas and serve as a
trigger for convective initiation well to our west Wednesday
afternoon. A shortwave trough will also move over the Southern
Plains Wednesday evening and Thursday and support additional
storms well ahead of the dryline Wednesday night. The shortwave
will marginally increase the deep-layer shear and threat of severe
hail, but not much. Widespread showers and storms are expected
Wednesday night into Thursday morning with a gradual west to east
movement. Heavy rain will likely accompany this activity. Given
the already saturated soils, it will not take much more rain to
cause flooding.

A lull in convective activity is expected Thursday as the storms
move into East Texas before additional storms develop along a cold
front late in the day. These storms should move into our area late
Thursday into Friday morning. How well the atmosphere rebounds
ahead of the front will largely determine the severe threat with
this activity. The front will then waver through the weekend into
early next week. There are significant differences in the
deterministic guidance regarding the placement of the front. Some
have it lingering nearby while others drive it all the way into
the Northern Plains. Either way, daily storms chances are in the
forecast through the weekend...with higher chances Sunday when a
shortwave trough moves through.

Ensemble trends are indicating the development of a stronger mid-
level ridge over the Gulf Coast in the middle and late parts of
next week. This would result in a warming trend with highs in the
90s more likely than not--most locations have a 50-70% chance
from Tuesday onward--next week...and since the moisture will not
be significantly scoured, heat index values in the upper 90s are
possible 7-10 days from now. Welcome to May.

Bonnette

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 108 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024/
/18z TAFs/

Stubborn MVFR and patchy IFR cigs should gradually improve/scatter
out to VFR by 20z with southerly winds between 12-15 kts with a
few gusts > 20 kts by mid-late afternoon. Winds will diurnally
back around to the SE near 15 kts this evening. Though not
advertised attm due to low confidence and probability, a VCSH or
VCTS for isolated "conditional" SHRA/TSRA may be needed. Again,
this is very conditional on isolated storm development well W-NW
of the area near the dryline, then outflow and development off
this outflow with a weak mid level impulse moving E over the D10
airspace.

Otherwise, winds will back southerly 10-15 kts overnight with MVFR
cigs arriving into the DFW D10 airports just before 12z
Wednesday with some IFR possible by mid morning, but returning to
MVFR by 18z, at which time southerly winds will will average near
15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts.

05/Marty

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    70  83  69  81  67 /  20  20  60  80  50
Waco                68  82  69  80  68 /   0  30  60  70  50
Paris               65  83  67  76  66 /   5  30  50  90  60
Denton              68  82  68  80  64 /  20  20  60  80  50
McKinney            68  82  68  79  66 /  10  30  60  80  60
Dallas              70  83  69  81  68 /  10  20  60  80  50
Terrell             67  82  67  79  66 /   0  30  60  90  60
Corsicana           68  84  70  80  68 /   0  30  60  80  60
Temple              69  82  69  81  68 /   0  30  60  70  40
Mineral Wells       67  83  67  84  65 /  20  20  70  60  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$