452
FXUS63 KGLD 100354
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
954 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light showers are possible today for Eastern Colorado. Greater
  precipitation chances are forecast for Sat/Sun. Widespread
  precipitation is possible, especially along and south of
  Interstate 70.

- Severe weather potential may return by the middle of next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 122 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024

Through most of the short-term, a 500 mb low pressure system will be
stalled out over the Great Basin. This will send out some weak
shortwaves across the Great Plains that will create enough forcing
to start some precipitation, but not enough for anything organized
or severe. Precipitation is possible this evening and tomorrow
evening, but PoPs remain around and under 25 and in the far western
CWA. Kansas and Nebraska will likely (70% confidence) not see any
measurable precipitation in the next 48 hours.

There is a slight chance (~15-20%) chance that patchy fog could form
across the CWA tonight, around 12Z. The limiting factors will be
northerly winds, currently forecast to be around 5-10 kts, and the
potential for upper-level clouds.

Saturday afternoon and into the overnight hours look to be a
different story as the low pressure system starts moving to the
east. This will provide enough forcing for some more organized
precipitation, including a few thunderstorms. The threat for severe
weather is low, but not 0. CAPE looks to be limited to around 1,000
J/KG and effective shear is about 15-20 kts or less. This could lead
to some pop-up storms that are quickly lived.

A warming trend is expected through the period, with highs reaching
the mid to upper 70s on Saturday. Low temperatures will follow a
similar trend, but generally remain in the 40s throughout the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024

A continued active pattern continues to remain forecasted for the
Tri-State area for the extended period. 500mb troughing a surface
low looks to be across or within the vicinity of the region.
Rainfall chances currently are forecasted to be in the in the 50-60%
chance of occurring with the most likely time frame to be
during the afternoon hours. GFS forecast soundings do show over
1100 j/kg of MUCAPE but with 0-6 shear less than 15 knots the
severe threat doesn`t look promising other than perhaps some
isolated instances of hail. GFS forecast soundings do also have
the freezing level down around 10,000` as with PWAT values of
0.8 to one inch makes me wonder if storms producing large
amounts of small hail (accumulating hail/SPLASH) may be in play.
With the weak wind shear as well severe downbursts/perhaps wet
microbursts may be in play as well as soundings do show some dry
air aloft which would help entrainment with dissipating storms.


Monday; as the low departs some lingering showers and storms may
remain possible as moisture remains in place. The main focus then
turns to Tuesday. Mid level ridging looks to be in place during the
day but will quickly be followed by an advancing shortwave. Am
watching this day for the next potential severe weather day for the
area. PWATS do look to be above an inch with falls into the 90th
percentile climatology for the area. A feature to keep an eye on
will be a surface low across the Mid Ohio Valley which will continue
to feed moisture into the area from the east. Currently,
convection may grow more upscale the further east it moves in
the area. The additional moisture advection from the east may
lead into back building of the potential MCS which would lead
to a very heavy rain potential. Continues to not look like a big
hydrology event but some instances of flash flooding may occur
especially if any training does occur.

Wednesday, a cold front pushes through the area bringing showers and
storms again to the area. Do have some concern of lingering cloud
cover from the previous day keeping temperatures cooler and
impacting any instability for thunderstorm potential. Overall I
did lower high temperatures a few degrees to account for this
scenario. The one thing to remember for the potential events
Tuesday and Wednesday is that they are still 5-6 days out and a
lot will change in the coming days so continue to stay tuned for
the most up to date forecast.


Temperatures for the period will be dependent on coverage on
precipitation/clouds from the previous day so I did opt to
lower them some what especially the days where overnight
rainfall looks "more likely". Temperatures for the period are
currently forecast mainly in the upper 60s to mid 70s for highs
with the warmest day currently appearing to be Tuesday where
some low 80s are forecasted under the the mid level ridge in
place. Lows continue to remain forecasted near seasonal in the
40s to 50s. May need to watch Thursday morning for cooler
temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s in wake of the cold
front on Wednesday, but am not anticipating any frost/freeze
concerns at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 950 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period, with ceilings
confined at or above ~6,000 ft AGL. Light (7-13 knot) NNW-N
winds will prevail through the day on Friday.. becoming variable
at/around sunset Friday evening.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Vincent