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000
FXUS63 KGLD 230846
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
246 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The next two days are forecast to see near average
  temperatures with small chances for showers/storms during the
  evening/overnight hours.

- Potential multi-hazard event is forecast Thursday. Most of the
  area has a chance for severe weather with large hail being the
  main threat. The other potential hazards with the system
  include critical fire weather conditions, high winds, and
  blowing dust, but these all have low confidence at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 242 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

A bit cooler today with highs forecast to be in the 60`s and low
70`s in the wake of the front and with higher pressure over the
area. A mix of clouds and sun is forecast, though no precipitation
is expected until the evening hours when a shortwave moves through
the upper northwest flow. A few shower and storm could form over the
higher terrain in Eastern Colorado and travel east along the better
mid-level moisture. No hazards are expected other than a chance for
dry lightning if a storm can develop instead of just showers.
Otherwise, virga and light rain would move through. Showers could
linger through most of the night if they stay together across the
area, exiting the area to the east just before sunrise. Lows tonight
are forecast to be in the 30`s and 40`s.

Wednesday, a somewhat similar day is forecast with a mix of clouds
and sun and temperatures around 70. The cooler temperatures would
favor along and east of Highway 83 where thicker cloud cover is
possible with the lingering moisture from the prior day. In spite of
subtle ridging aloft, a more zonal/northwesterly flow could allow a
shortwave to move through and spark storms over higher terrain in
Eastern Colorado again. Severe weather is not expected, but any
storms that do form may have an easier time moving to the east if
low level moisture advection occurs as some guidance is suggesting.
The low level moisture advection would also bring a chance for some
fog across most of NW Kansas and SW Nebraska though stronger winds
and any convection may disrupt fog.

Thursday remains the interesting day with a chance of a multi-hazard
setup. It should be noted up front that the multi-hazard is low
chance. While upper ridging is forecast to be present over the area
early Thursday, an upper trough/low is forecast to move over the
Four Corners region and help develop a low pressure system in the
lee of the Rockies. The low is then forecast to push east near the
KS/CO border later in the day. The question is how far east will it
push and will there be any shifting north. This is some of the
variances that ensemble guidance is hinting at. The best case
scenario is a south and west track with the low not deepening too
much. In this case, the low would be sitting on the southwest border
of the area by the evening hours. The only likely hazard at that
point would be severe weather and it may only affect the southern
and eastern half of the area. The worst case scenario is a deep low
that races just east of the Tri-State border by the late afternoon
hours. In this scenario, most of Eastern Colorado and adjacent
counties would have critical fire weather conditions behind the
dryline. Strong to high winds would develop during the day and
blowing dust would be possible late in the afternoon until
precipitation began. Severe weather chances would decrease behind
the dryline, but would likely increase ahead of the dryline. The
most likely scenario is inbetween the two with severe weather
chances across most of the area, a limited area of critical fire
weather conditions generally south of I-70 and west of Highway 25,
some patchy blowing dust across parts of NW Kansas late in the
afternoon, and no high winds (though winds would still probably be
around 15 to 30 mph). Temperatures will depend on placement and
timing of the system, but 70`s favor along and north of I-70 and
80`s favor along and south of I-70.

In regards to confidence, confidence is currently moderate (40-60%)
that severe weather will occur somewhere in the area with large hail
as the primary threat (tornadoes and damaging winds would be
possible but much lower risk). The main uncertainty with the severe
weather is if a capping inversion will be present and hold through
the evening. Confidence is low for the other 3 potential hazards
(wind, dust, fire) with dust and fire also being limited in coverage
if they did occur.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 114 PM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

As the system from Thursday leaves the area, Friday will see
lingering showers and low-end storms, as well as breezy west-
northwesterly winds. Pressure changes with this system have become
fairly weak with this run of guidance. The big change is the second
low pressure system is looking to arrive earlier than previously
thought. Gusts on Friday seem to max out around 30 kts. The
lingering showers and storms will retreat to the north during the
evening and overnight hours.

Another low pressure system is forecast to move into the area
Saturday evening. There are two guidance suggested tracks that this
system will take. The first track is over our southeastern CWA. This
would give majority of the Tri-State area a decent chance as some
stratiform rain, with a few thunderstorms embedded within. The
precipitation would be primarily be from wrap-around moisture, and
gives us a chance (~5-10%) of seeing some snow mix in. The other
track is across the northwestern CWA. This would give us a favorable
setup for severe weather Saturday evening and overnight. The SPC
currently has a 15% outlook for severe weather southeast of the CWA
on Saturday. This looks to be mostly based on the first track, which
has shown up more often in previous model runs.

Pressure rises behind the front on Sunday are strengthening from 24
hours ago, but are not overly impressive. Gusty northwesterly winds
around 30 kts are currently forecast for Sunday.

Winds that will generally favor the north will cause temperatures to
struggle. Temperatures Friday will be in the upper 60s to low 80s
and, depending on the low pressure system and associated cold front,
Saturday`s temperatures look to range from the mid 60s to low 80s.
Sunday, the Tri-State area will all be around 70 and begin warming
up again Monday, up to the upper 70s. Overnight temperatures look to
cool into the upper 30s to upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1003 PM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR conditions continue to remain forecasted at each terminal.
LLWS is seen on GLD VAD wind and looks to continue through
sunrise via RAP forecast soundings. KMCK is forecast to see LLWS
around 09Z. Each of the LLWS is from a deepening surface low in
SE Colorado/ SW Kansas. HREF has been hinting at some stratus
moving south out of the Nebraska Panhandle; but think it should
begin to dissipate as it moves towards the KGLD terminal.  A
brief period of breezy winds sustained around 15 knots and then
weakening through the remainder of the afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Trigg