Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 190330
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1030 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

BREEZY AND MILD THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN COOLER AGAIN FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW ACRS NOAM WL CONT A BIT LONGER...THEN
THE PATTERN WL IMMEDIATELY GO BACK INTO AN AMPLIFICATION PHASE...
WHICH WL PEAK EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A GRADUAL PROGRESSION OF THE
LARGE SCALE FEATURES CONTINUES. THE MAIN WESTERLIES WL RECEDE NWD
INTO CANADA BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WL BE ON SOMEWHAT OF A ROLLERCOASTER...WITH MAXES
MAINLY VARYING BETWEEN NORMAL AND ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE MINS VARY
BETWEEN NORMAL AND BELOW NORMAL. PCPN TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD WL
DEPEND PRIMARILY ON WHAT FALLS IN THE NEXT 24-48 HRS...AND WL MOST
LIKELY END UP AOB NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LAST
NIGHTS COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY...WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS REMAINS SOLID OVER MUCH
OF WISCONSIN EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHERE CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING SOUTH. ANTICIPATE THESE CLOUDS TO RETURN
NORTHWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS
NORTHEAST. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST OVER SOUTHEAST
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WILL ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOMORROW.
CLOUD TRENDS ARE THE FIRST FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
PRECIP CHANCES TOMORROW.

TONIGHT...THE COLD CANADIAN HIGH RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST AS
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WITH RETURN
FLOW STRENGTHENING...LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AS THE
COLD FRONT RETURNS NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL HELP DISSIPATE THE LOW
STRATUS DECK FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.  NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
SHOULD SEE THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE LAST.  IF AND WHERE SKIES DO CLEAR
FOR A PERIOD (MOST LIKELY OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN)...SOME POSSIBILITY OF LOW STRATUS REDEVELOPING AS
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A LOWERING INVERSION AND WINDS
SHOULD NOT DECOUPLE.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS WILL OCCUR SO WILL
LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST.  SHOULD SEE A WARMER NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

FRIDAY...AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE THEIR RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST...MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE MORNING AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST OUT OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO LAKE
SUPERIOR.  THE TAIL END OF THAT VORT MAX MAY CREATE A FEW SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR NE WISCONSIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER
DESPITE PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND WILL GO WITH A RANGE FROM
THE MIDDLE 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FRONTAL SYSTEM WL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FRI NGT AND CROSS THE
AREA SAT. LARGE SCALE UPR TROF WL BE AMPIFYING AS IT ACCOMPANIES
THE FRONT ACRS THE AREA. SO LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR PCPN WL BE
DECENT. A BIT CONCERNED HOWEVER THAT THE RETURN OF MOISTURE FM THE
S IS BEING OVERESTIMATED BY THE GUIDANCE. STUCK CLOSE TO PREV FCST
WITH POPS...WHICH BASICALLY MEANT HAVING LIKELY POPS IN THE N AND
CHC POPS IN THE S. LOW-LEVEL WINDS START TO VEER AHEAD OF THE SFC
FRONT ON SAT...CUTTING DOWN ON THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE CAUGHT ON TO THIS BY SHOWING ONLY LIMITED PCPN
WITH THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...WITH THE BEST DEVELOPMENT
OCCURRING TO OUR S AND E LATE IN THE DAY. THIS ALSO FITS WITH
SPC/S SWODY3 OUTLOOK WHICH INDICATED A 5 PCT CHC OF SVR OVER SERN
WI.

UPR SPEED MAX AND SECONDARY SHRTWV WL DIG ACRS THE AREA SAT NGT...
WITH SECONDARY SFC BOUNDARY LIKELY DROPPING THROUGH ON SUN. THESE
FEATURES WL KEEP THE CHC FOR SHRA ALIVE...ESP ACRS THE N. WENT
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACRS THE N IN BOTH PERIODS.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA COMBINED WITH SFC HIGH
PASSING TO OUR SW FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WK WL LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF QUIET AUTUMN WEATHER. TEMPS WL START OUT A LITTLE
COOL AND THEN MODERATE. THE DRY AIR WL ALLOW AFTN MAXES TO WARM TO
ABV NORMAL LEVELS...WHILE NIGHT TIME LOWS DROP TO AOB NORMAL. MADE
A FEW TWEAKS TO THE EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS TO BETTER
DEPICT THE ABV MENTIONED TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
OVER MOST PLACES. HOWEVER PATCHES OF IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH
FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LLWS CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
WEST HALF OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED WITH GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS OVER MOST LOCATIONS STARTING LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TDH





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