Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 250830

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
330 AM EST Sat Nov 25 2017

Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine

Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Nov 25 2017

Temperatures will remain above normal through the end of the month
with relatively benign weather continuing. A cold front will
bring a few light rain or mixed rain and snow showers today, then
another weak front on Tuesday could produce a few light showers.
A better chance of showers arrives next Thursday.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Nov 25 2017

Sfc cold front is passing through at this time and has a decent
coverage of light rain showers ahead/along it - east of Hwy 131.
The front will exit to the east by daybreak but the upper trough
and low level cold advection/lake contribution will aid in the
development of more scattered light showers today.

Fcst soundings support the possibility of some snow mixing in
this afternoon north of I-96 and particularly near/north of U.S.
10. However precip too light and sfc temps too warm for any

The upper trough and H8 thermal trough depart this evening so any
lingering precipitation this evening should just be a few
sprinkles or flurries. Guidance indicates low clouds scattering
out later tonight although the NAM shows considerable moisture
lingering at 925 mb so this may end up being just a partial
clearing situation overnight.

Any lingering low clouds should mix out on Sunday morning, then
mid and high cloud should be streaming in from the northwest in
the afternoon. Looks like a radiation fog potential may exist on
Sunday night as winds diminish, but dependent on how much high
cloudiness is around.

High temps will be up around 50 again on Monday as low levels
continue to warm in the southerly flow ahead of next approaching

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Nov 25 2017

We are looking at two periods in which pcpn will be possible across
SW Lower through next Friday. The first will be a very low chance on
Tue, and then the other will be late Wed night through Thu when the
chance looks much better.

A stiff SW wind will start out the long term, bringing warm
temperatures over the area. This will keep temperatures up Mon
night, and allow for another day likely in the 50s on Tue. We will
see a cold front push through the area Tue afternoon that will limit
the heating some. The front will also bring a low chance of rain,
however most locations will not see rain with very limited moisture
available with the front.

The air behind the Tue front will not be all that cold, as the
coldest of the air stays north of the area and the flow will be from
the west instead of northwest. We should see some sunshine on Wed
also with high pressure nearby.

The best chance of rain will come in later Wed night and will linger
into Thu night. This pcpn will result from a low moving across Srn
Canada, phasing with a low coming from the Plains, and moisture
streaming out of the Gulf. The system is fairly progressive and
should not cause too many issues. We could see the last of the pcpn
Thu evening/night change over to some snow as some colder air moves
in. This will clear out for Fri as high pressure builds in.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1255 AM EST Sat Nov 25 2017

Cold front is approaching the terminals as of 0530z this morning.
Showers had intensified over the lake and up north because of the
lake. They are now on the downturn, with many of the terminals
expected to miss out on the showers. Low clouds based around
2000-2500 ft will move in behind the front along with a wind shift
to the west. Also, winds are coming down as the core of the wind
aloft is moving away.

Low clouds will likely persist for much of the day, gradually
lifting from MVFR to VFR toward mid-afternoon. A few light showers
will likely remain scattered around the area. Wind gusts up in the
20s will be likely. Clouds will clear out this evening, and winds
will diminish.


Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Nov 25 2017

Small craft advisory will be needed through the remainder of the
weekend. Strong northwest flow expected today behind the cold
front, then winds remaining relatively strong from the west on
Sunday as center of sfc high tracks south of Michigan.


Issued at 330 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

All river flood advisories have been discontinued as of Friday
afternoon. Water levels on area creeks, rivers, and streams will
continue to fall through early next week. Light rain showers or
drizzle are expected tonight and Saturday in association with a cold
frontal passage. Rain amounts should remain below a tenth of an
inch. No hydrologic concerns are anticipated through the middle of
next week as no significant precipitation is expected.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for LMZ844>849.



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