Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGRR 210353
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1155 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL GRADUALLY LOSE IT/S GRIP OVER
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WILL BECOME PARTLY
SUNNY TUESDAY. WE LOOKING AT SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL TODAY. THE MAIN STORY IS THE UPPER LOW
MOVING OVER LAKE HURON. THIS LOW WILL TAKE ANOTHER DAY TO MOVE OUT
OF THE PICTURE. TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUDY AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WEST THROUGH MANITOBA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL
ROTATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FLOW AND ACROSS EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
WE MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES EAST OF US-127 AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY.

UPPER RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WE/LL SEE
DECREASING CLOUDINESS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THAT WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A CHILLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS ENCOURAGE TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALSO LOOK FAIR AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH HOW WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL GO.  I SUSPECT WE WILL SEE SOME 70S AT SOME POINT...MOST LIKELY
MONDAY.

TRENDS IN THE MODELS SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.  WARM AIR ADVECTION IS SHOWN TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AS A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND TRACKS INTO
MICHIGAN ON MONDAY.  925 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE TEENS...WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES MONDAY.  ASSUMING WE MIX TO THAT LEVEL...WE WOULD
LIKELY REACH 70.  FOR NOW I BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES
CONSIDERABLY...TAKING THEM INTO THE 60S.

I DID ADD THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY.  THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE THUNDER RISK.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT.  A WEAKENING MID LEVEL WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  TRENDS SHOWS THIS FEATURE ARRIVING SOONER...SO IF IT DID
PRECIPITATE...THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE DAY.  THE MOISTURE IN THE
DGZ IS DECREASING AS THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH.  WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR
NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO MAINLY
MVFR OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOWERING CIGS AS LOWER CLOUDS ADVECT IN AND
DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT KMKG. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL STAY
OUT OF THE NNW MAINLY AOB 10 KTS.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM MAINLY MVFR TUESDAY MORNING
TO VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE A BIT TO AROUND
10 TO 15 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
TUESDAY EVENING AS SKIES CLEAR AND WIND SPEEDS SUBSIDE TO AOB 10
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE HEADLINE. WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.