Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGRR 131148
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
648 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND PROVIDE SOME
SUNSHINE AWAY FROM THE LAKE. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE WEST OF
US-131 WHERE A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE. A COLD DAY
IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS. TONIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD WITH
MANY LOCATIONS BELOW 0. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS ILLINOIS/INDIANA. WARMER
WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH ONGOING LAKE EFFECT AND THE NEXT CLIPPER
MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW AREAS WEST OF US-131 RECEIVING MODERATE
SNOW. VISIBILITIES AT HART/HOLLAND/BENTON HARBOR ARE UNDER 2SM -SHSN.
DESPITE LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS...INSTABILITY IS VERY HIGH OVER THE
LAKE AND SNOW SHSN WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. NOT
MUCH SNOW IS OCCURRING IN KALAMAZOO AND LAKE COUNTIES AND SO WE
ENDED THE ADVISORY THERE. IT/S POSSIBLE THAT SOME LIGHT SHOW MAY
REDEVELOP AS WINDS BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL. WE KEPT THE HEADLINES AS IS WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY ALONG
THE LAKE SHORE EXCEPT FOR THE WINTER STORM WARNING COUNTIES OF
ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN WHERE ANOTHER 1-4 INCHES MAY FALL TODAY.

DON`T REALLY THINK THE SNOW WILL END AT THE LAKE SHORE BEFORE THE
NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY. THERE HAS BEEN A SOUTHWARD TREND
IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW BUT WE/LL STILL RECEIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. . ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO
LOOKS POSSIBLE.

TODAY WILL BE VERY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID TEENS. THEN
TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BELOW 0 TONIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE
LAKE SHORE. WIND CHILLS WON/T GET OUT OF HAND THOUGH DUE TO
DIMINISHING WINDS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE BITTER COLD AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT SLIPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
WE SHOULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HOWEVER
NOT MUCH LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
SINCE SURFACE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IS QUICK TO MOVE IN.

THE MID WEEK BOUT OF COLD AIR DOES NOT STICK AROUND FOR VERY LONG AS
THE NRN BRANCH OF THE JET RETREATS AND AN APPROACHING PACIFIC SYSTEM
INDUCES A STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND MILD
TEMPS IN THE 40S NEXT FRIDAY... BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

FREQUENT IFR/LIFR VSBYS AT THE LAKESHORE TODAY INCLUDING MKG AND
EXTENDING TOWARD AZO AT TIMES. INLAND TERMINALS STARTING OUT VFR
THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR
AFTER 15Z AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD BACK
INLAND. SNOW SHOWERS ENDING TONIGHT WILL ALL AREAS TURNING VFR.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-22 KTS BY 15Z THEN DECREASE
AFTER 21Z... BECOMING CALM LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

BASED ON COASTAL OBS...WE DISCONTINUED THE GALE WARNING AND ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 301 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

RIVER GAUGES THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS
OF BEING AFFECTED BY ICE BUILD UP. IT IS ALSO EVIDENT THAT THE GRAND
RIVER AT ROBINSON TWP HAS A BIT MORE ICE FLOWING DOWNSTREAM THAN WAS
THE CASE YESTERDAY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND UP
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...WHEN WE FINALLY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. LONG TERM FORECASTS SUGGEST WE MAY
EVEN SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

FLUCTUATIONS ARE STILL A POSSIBILITY TO MAKE NOTE OF THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE EVENT
THAT THICKER ICE BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ064-
     071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037-
     043-050-056.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...04


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.