000
FXUS63 KMKX 281545
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1045 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...

STILL EXPECTING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. MODELS ARE SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE LOW LEVELS ARE FAIRLY DRY...SO NOT
A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS AT THE TIME. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
ON TRACK TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE LOW
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY DRY...SO NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS AT THE
TIME. LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.
SOUTHERN WI WILL BE IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO PRESSURE
SYSTEMS RESULTING IN CONTINUED BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISHING. THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRY SO
LOOK FOR A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF MORE CLOUDS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE CLEARING
OUT AGAIN.

THE NAM IS GENERATING SOME LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT IT IS THE ONLY ONE DOING THIS AND
THE MOISTURE LOOKS OVERDONE. WE SHOULD SEE VERY LOW DEW POINTS
TODAY...SO ANY SHOWERS WOULD LIKELY BE ON THE ORDER OF SPRINKLES
OR VIRGA. WILL IGNORE IT FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING A 500 MB LOW LINGERING OVER THE
JAMES BAY CANADA REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. SEVERAL WEAK TO MODEST 500 MB VORTICITY
MAXIMA PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SEEN ON MODELS...AIDED BY LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ON WEDNESDAY.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MEAN LAYER CAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS TUESDAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THUS...CONTINUED CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH
DAY...WITH LOWER END POPS IN THE MORNINGS AND EVENINGS.

PLEASANT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY...TURNING COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH.

GFS/ECMWF GENERALLY SHOWING 500 MB LOW WEAKENING AND SHIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC CANADA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. 500 MB
TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW QPF ACROSS THE AREA
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

CONTINUED POPS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THUNDER
POSSIBILITIES DURING EACH AFTERNOON PERIOD. TEMPERATURES STILL
LOOK QUITE PLEASANT...WITH MAINLY UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EACH DAY.
ONSHORE WINDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SHOULD KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS
COOLER.

TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WHICH MAY BRING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
STILL LOOK NICE.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY OUT
OF THE NORTH AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF KMSN...BUT
WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BLOW THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE NORTH OF MILWAUKEE BY MID
AFTERNOON AND BY EARLY EVENING SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE. IT/S POSSIBLE
TRENDS WILL ALLOW THINGS TO BE CANCELLED A FEW HOURS EARLIER.

BEACHES...

BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LARGE WAVES TO THE
BEACHES FROM SHEBOYGAN COUNTY SOUTH THROUGH KENOSHA COUNTY. WAVES
OF 3 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED...BUT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY MID
AFTERNOON. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-060-066-
     071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...DAVIS
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WOOD