000
FXUS63 KMKX 171717
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1217 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.UPDATE...

Temperatures are warming nicely out there and we could end up a
degree or two above the forecast. So, most places could touch 70
or 71 this afternoon. Otherwise, no changes necessary in the short
term forecast.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Skies will
remain mostly clear and VSBYS above 6SM. Winds will
decouple/diminish tonight, but remain elevated above the boundary
layer. Therefore, expect low level wind shear through the
overnight hours. After 12z Wednesday, the stable boundary layer
will mix out, resulting in gusty southwest winds through the day
on Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 950 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017)

UPDATE...

The forecast is on track. No changes to the forecast at mid
morning.

MARINE...

Gusty southwest winds will gradually diminish this morning.
The offshore wind is pushing the higher waves out toward open
water. A small craft advisory remains in place for today, ending
north of Milwaukee by mid day and over the rest of the marine
areas by early evening, or sooner. We will need another small
craft advisory for Wednesday into Wednesday night due to
increasing southerly winds ahead of an approaching trough of low
pressure.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 633 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017)

UPDATE...Forecast is on track for today and tonight.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...A wswly LLJ of 40-45 kts will support LLWS
through 14Z this morning. LLWS may occur again late tonight if
the LLJ becomes strong enough. Otherwise, mostly clear skies and
VFR conditions will prevail today through Wed.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 325 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017)

SHORT TERM...

Today And Tonight...Forecast Confidence Is High.

Swly winds and warm advection will continue through the period. A
850-700 mb thermal ridge will settle over srn WI this afternoon,
while 925 mb temps rise to 13-14C. Thus, expect high temps near
70F. Mild low temps tnt of upper 40s to lower 50s.

Wednesday Through Thursday Night...Forecast Confidence Is High.

Models continue to be in good agreement with trends during this
period. They bring a weak and baggy 500 mb shortwave trough
through the area on Wednesday. There is not much moisture with
this feature, besides a few middle to high clouds. A 500 mb ridge
then develops over the southeastern part of the country Thursday
into Thursday night. This allows for the zonal flow to become
southwesterly by later Thursday night.

A dry cold frontal passage is expected later Wednesday night into
early Thursday morning. Gusty south to southwest winds ahead of it
on Wednesday should bring mild temperatures into the area, with
another shot of warm air advection starting Thursday night. Thus,
a dry period is expected Wednesday into Thursday night, with mild
temperatures expected.

LONG TERM...

Friday Through Friday Night...Forecast Confidence Is High.

Models continue to show the 500 mb ridge axis shifting offshore of
the Carolinas and Georgia during this period. Southwest flow
continues over the region, with a 500 mb vorticity maximum passing
through Friday night. This should bring some middle to high clouds
through the area, with dry conditions continuing. Gusty south
winds should continue to bring very warm temperatures into the
area. Went with middle 70s for highs Friday for now.

Saturday Through Monday...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models show some timing differences with the passing 500 mb
shortwave trough and associated surface cold front across the
region Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Still, there is general
consensus that these features should bring a decent shot at
showers and a few thunderstorms. The best chances look to be
Saturday night, when the front moves into and through the area.
Continued to use consensus model blended PoPs for Saturday
afternoon into Sunday. Mild temperatures should linger Saturday
ahead of the front.

Models are then showing a secondary cold front moving through the
region later Sunday night into Monday morning, with rather strong
cold air advection behind it later on Monday. A digging 500 mb low
sliding southeast through the western Great Lakes region may bring
some showers to the area. Left small PoPs for now.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...

A wswly LLJ of 40-45 kts will support LLWS through 14Z this
morning. LLWS may occur again late tonight if the LLJ becomes
strong enough. Otherwise, mostly clear skies and VFR conditions
will prevail today through Wed.

MARINE...

Breezy swly winds will continue this morning and then lessen
north of North Point Lighthouse for the afternoon, while
continuing south of North Point Lighthouse. Therefore, the Small
Craft Advisory continues through the day south of North Point
Lighthouse, and expires at noon north of North Point Lighthouse.
Breezy sswly winds will return for Wed-Wed nt with high waves
developing north of Port Washington. A Small Craft Advisory will
likely be needed for all of the nearshore waters.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LMZ645-646.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT today for LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

Update...Davis
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Gehring
Wednesday THROUGH Monday...Wood