Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 290357

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1057 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Surface warm front extending into west central MN will continue
lifting north as a cold front approaches from the eastern Dakotas.
Warm air/moisture advection will ensue across northwest and
north central MN tonight as the nocturnal low level jet
strengthens. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in
response over northwest MN, and track east and slightly southeast
overnight. This activity should primarily affect the far northern
part of the forecast area late tonight, and pivot into west
central MN around daybreak Monday. As the front enters the
forecast area during peak heating Monday, expect more widespread
activity to spread east/southeast across the forecast area on
Monday afternoon and evening. Prior to the frontal passage, highs
will warm into the low/mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

The longer term concerns are timing of frontal passage across the
cwa into Tuesday afternoon and the attendant severe weather threat.

Initially the front sags into the northern cwa around 00z Tuesday.
Instability and mid level lapse rates are quite unstable along the
frontal boundary.  The flow is rather weak and deeper shear is lagging
the front.  It appears the greatest threat/high pops will be over the
northeast portion of the cwa into Monday evening. The severe
weather threat looks marginal at the moment...but hail and strong
winds will be a definite threat at least through the evening. If
the front is slower than progged...we could see a heavy rain
threat develop if convection becomes well established. PW`s
increase to about 1.75 inches which is above the 90% percentile
for the date. We will have to monitor this threat into he evening.

The front exits the area Tuesday and a large dry ridge of high pressure
settles over the Great Lakes region through the week.  This should provide
drier dewpoint air with cool nights and steadily warmer days through the
end of the week.  The deterministic models are in fair agreement of bringing
in the next front later Saturday through Sunday. Forecast PW`s increase
out ahead of the western conus trough and should surge out along the front
then...providing another heavy rain threat to the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

A couple weather concerns tonight and tomorrow. We are watching
thunderstorms in northern MN. These storms are not an immediate
threat to any of the TAF sites, and have they have not made the
progress to the east-southeast that we earlier thought, but
something to keep an eye, mainly for KAXN and KSTC. There is also
the potential for a little fog tonight, but conditions will not be
nearly as bad as last night. Another round of storms is possible
tomorrow afternoon - potential for these to be a little more
widespread and impact more airports, at least by tomorrow evening.


The thunder out in western MN is still not making much progress
to the east. It has been slower and farther to the north by now
than what we originally thought. This storm will eventually move
southeast (it`s starting to now), it will likely stay north of
the airport - but need to keep an eye on it. A shower isn`t
completely out of the question around daybreak. More rain likely
late in the day tomorrow.


MON EVE...VFR. Chc -TSRA. Wind S 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind NNE 5 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SSE 5-10 kts.

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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