Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 122008
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
308 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA AS OF 330 PM. PCPN WAS FOCUSED OVER TWO AREAS... ONE
NEAR THE IOWA BORDER AND ANOTHER FROM EAST CENTRAL INTO WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THE FORMER AREA WAS BEING SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE
EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE
MAIN INSTABILITY GRADIENT/BAROCLINIC ZONE. HOWEVER... THE LATTER WAS
BEING AIDED BY THE SECONDARY FRONT/DEWPOINT GRADIENT DROPPING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
EAST FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA. MLCAPE VALUES OF 250-1000 J/KG
WERE APPARENT IN THE SPC MESOANALYSIS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA... WHERE EMBEDDED STORMS WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES WERE
PRESENT. SOME PEA SIZED HAIL WAS OCCURRING WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS... WHICH HAD SOME BETTER CORES ABV 25K FT AGL. THE HRRR HAS
HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THINGS THROUGH THE DAY... SO GENERALLY
FOLLOWED ITS GUIDANCE TOGETHER WITH NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES FROM
THE HOPWRF. THAT BEING SAID... EXPECT THINGS TO SHIFT EAST/SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY EVENING... WITH MOST OF THE CWFA BECOMING PCPN FREE
BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z. WE COULD SEE SOME SHRA SNEAK BACK INTO THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PV LOBE
SWINGS THROUGH THAT AREA. COLD ADVECTION WILL ASSERT ITSELF OVER THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. SUBSIDENCE WITH THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP ANY SHRA FROM DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY GIVEN THAT THE
BETTER LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STILL BE UPSTREAM AND CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW AT THAT POINT. SO... EXPECT MAINLY JUST DIURNAL CU
WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN DIGGING SOUTH AGGRESSIVELY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WILL REACH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY. CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW
MONDAY...GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE LOW OVER WESTERN WI. STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE STRONG CAA REGIME MAY RESULT IN SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT NOTHING THAT WILL BE TOO STRONG GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY SHALLOW INSTABILITY/MOIST LAYER - MORE LIKE AN ISOLATED
STRIKE OR TWO AT BEST.

THE BIGGER STORY MONDAY WILL BE THE MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. 925 MB TEMPS OF ONLY ABOUT +10C AND 850 MB
TEMPS AT BEST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 0C WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO ONLY
REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S...EVEN IF THE SUN CAN MAKE A BRIEF
APPEARANCE. RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS ARE 68 AT MSP...STC AND EAU AND
RECORD LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE RECORD LOWS MAY
BE A BIT OF A STRETCH...BUT THE COLD HIGHS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
EASILY ATTAINABLE IF HIGHS ARE NOT REACHED AT 06Z MONDAY.

THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...BUT THE
MOISTURE WILL EXIT AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...EXPECTING
A MOSTLY CLEAR REST OF THE WEEK WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
FOR MOST...THIS MAY BE CONSIDERED THE NICEST WEEK OF THE SUMMER
THUS FAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS SRN MN THIS MORNING IS ALSO HELPING TO
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL...WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF IT. INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...SO UPDRAFTS HAVE BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIGHTNING...SO TRENDED
PRECIP MENTION IN TAFS MORE TOWARD A SHRA MENTION. OUTSIDE OF
BEING A LITTLE SLOW IN DEVELOPING ACTIVITY...THE HRRR HAS HAD A
GOOD HANDEL ON ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...SO FOLLOWED IT TO TIME
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THERE IS ALSO AN AREA OF SHRA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS WRN MN...BUT WITH CIGS GETTING EVER
HIGHER OUT WEST...THAT RAIN WILL LIKELY HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING
MUCH FARTHER WEST OF ITS CURRENT LOCATION. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH IT WILL BE TAKING THE IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH IT...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REST OF THE TAF. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR OUT...BUT WE
WILL BE BRINGING IN DRIER AIR THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL...SO THAT
SHOULD KEEP ANY LOWER VSBYS IN CHECK. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TREND
MORE NWRLY OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING AND A FEW GUSTS OUT
OF THE NW DEVELOPING BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

KMSP...LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MINIMAL WITH ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING AND WITH CLOUD TOPS RELATIVELY WARM...WILL LIKELY SEE
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO BE PRETTY SPARSE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...SO FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH JUST THE VCTS MENTION. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR THE FIELD BY 23Z WITH NO OTHER ISSUES
EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD OTHER THAN THE NW WINDS STARTING TO GET
GUSTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR PSBL WITH CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. NW WINDS 15-30 KTS.
TUE...VFR. NW WINDS 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. NW WINDS 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...MPG






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