Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 271130
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
730 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 258 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2017

Water vapor imagery shows broad zonal flow across the Upper Great
Lakes region this morning, with stout and fast moving shortwave
digging into the northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley. Mostly
clear skies have lingered across Upper Michigan this morning, with
light and variable winds. A few locations intermittently have been
reporting fog, but it seems to be shallow ground fog this far north.

This morning, a few areas of patchy fog are possible, but expect any
lingering fog to dissipate fairly quickly after the sun rises.
Expect a fairly quiet weather day across Upper Michigan today, we
could see a few light rain showers across the west and central as
the above mentioned shortwave digs across the area later this
afternoon. Given how dry the mid-levels are do not expect much in
the way of accumulations with these rain showers. The drier air
should also allow temperatures to modify nicely into the 70s and low
80s this afternoon as ample sunshine is expected. With much of the
area situated between high pressure off to our west and low pressure
to our west, the resulting pressure gradient will allow breezy
northerly winds to develop this afternoon across the central and
east.

Any lingering rain showers will diminish this evening as we lose
diurnal heating and the shortwave digs pushes south of the area.
Tonight, as surface high pressure finally pushes overhead skies
mostly clear skies will work in concert with light winds and a drier
airmass and allow temperatures to drop into the upper 40s to mid
50s. The coldest temperatures are expected to be across the interior
west.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2017

Quiet through the weekend. Appears that the GFS has now backed off
of bringing front into the area as early as Sun. Rain chances do
come back into the picture early next week as weak frontal boundaries
settle across the area in NW flow aloft.

With the high overhead through the weekend, expect light/lake breeze
driven winds during the aftn and calm winds at night inland with a
light breeze continuing along the Great Lakes shores. Light winds
and clear skies with the high could allow mins on Sat morning to
drop into the upper 30s to near 40F at favored cold spots inland.
With plenty of sunshine daytime highs Fri and Sat should top out
in the upper 70s to low 80s and into the low to mid 80s on Sun.

NW flow aloft early next week results in couple of weak fronts
crossing Upper Great Lakes Mon and Tue with stronger shortwave
bringing a sharper front through mid to late week. These weak
fronts could trigger some showers and thunder Mon and Tue. Coverage
should remain isolated or scattered and probably will peak during
each aftn. Stronger shortwave trough and frontal boundary moving
into the area by mid week sometime in the Wed through Thu time
frame should provide best chances at widespread rain next week.
Model guidance offers up differences in what day will have best
focus for rain so will stay with consensus guidance attm.
Temperatures early next week should end up slightly above normal
with readings mainly in the upper 70s to mid 80s, warmest inland.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 729 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2017

Expect VFR conditions to prevail over the next 24 hours at all TAF
sites. Diurnal cumulus this afternoon should remain south of the
terminals as northerly winds help the lake breeze push further
inland throughout the afternoon hours. There is a slight chance
for light rain showers this afternoon across the southwest, but
right now those showers are expected to remain south of the KIWD
terminals so did not include mentions of that activity in the TAF
for now. Winds should remain fairly light at KCMX and KIWD today,
but at KSAW breezy winds are expected this afternoon as the
pressure gradient is remains somewhat enhanced ahead of the
approaching area of high pressure.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 258 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2017

As high pressure begins to build across the region today a lingering
pressure gradient will allow winds to remain 10 to 20 knots. Friday
through the weekend as high pressure settles across the Upper Great
Lakes region, winds will remain under 15 knots. Expect these winds
to linger into the first part of next week.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ritzman
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...Ritzman
MARINE...Ritzman


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