Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 231850
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
250 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG AXIS BLDG
INTO THE GREAT LKS IN ADVANCE OF A SHRTWV MOVING NEWD THRU THE
NCENTRAL PLAINS. WITH SFC HI PRES RDG STRETCHING FM OHIO NWWD THRU
THE UPR MIDWEST UNDER THE UPR RDG AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...12Z
PWAT WAS AS LO AS ABOUT 0.50 INCH /ABOUT 70 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ AT
MPX...SKIES ARE MOSUNNY. THERE IS A BACK DOOR COLD FNT SLIPPING
SLOWLY SWWD THRU THRU THE E HALF OF LK SUP ASSOCIATED WITH BLDG HI
PRES NEAR JAMES BAY...BUT THE AIRMASS IS SO DRY THERE ARE NO CLDS
ALONG THIS BNDRY IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY DYNAMIC SUPPORT. H85 TEMPS
ARE AS HI AS 12-13C...SUPPORTING TEMPS THAT HAVE RISEN INTO THE 70S
AWAY FM LK MODERATION. LOOKING UPSTREAM...HI CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH
PLAINS SHRTWV ARE ADVANCING INTO NW WI.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON TEMPS AND
EXPECTED CLD COVER/POTENTIAL FOR ANY SHOWERS LATER ON WED OVER AT
LEAST THE FAR WRN CWA IN ADVANCE OF DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE
PLAINS.

LATE TDAY/TNGT...ALTHOUGH BACK DOOR COLD FNT REINFORCED BY LK BREEZE
FORMATION/INLAND HEATING MAY SLIP INTO THE CWA BORDERING LK SUP FM
THE KEWEENAW E TOWARD WHITEFISH PT LATE THIS AFTN...SUBSIDENCE/DRY
AIRMASS WL LIMIT IMPACT TO SOME LOCAL COOLING NEAR THE SHORE.
OTRW...HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV MOVING NEWD THRU THE PLAINS
WL ARRIVE OVER AT LEAST THE W HALF OF UPR MI OVERNT. THE COMBINATION
OF THESE INCRSG HI CLDS/STRENGTHENING SSW H925 FLOW TO 25 KTS LATE
UNDER A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT CLOSER TO INCOMING SHRTWV WL LIMIT THE
DIURNAL TEMP FALL OVER THE W. THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP MAY
NOT SEE TEMPS FALL BLO 50. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS NEAR 40 AT
THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS OVER THE E UNDER WEAKER GRADIENT/LINGERING
DRIER AIR. MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG FCST IN THE FCST FOR THE E HALF
WITH FVRBL DIURNAL COOLING.

WED...AS SHRTWV MOVES INTO NE MN/NW WI BY LATE AND SOME DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC OVERSPREADS UPR MI...AT LEAST MID/HI CLDS WL BE
THICKENING SW-NE THRU THE DAY. A NUMBER OF THE MODELS GENERATE SOME
LGT PCPN OVER THE FAR W LATE IN THE AFTN WHERE THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES A DEEPER INCRS IN MSTR UNDER THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THE NEAR SFC LYR WL
MOISTEN...THE NAM AND GFS BOTH INDICATE PWAT WL INCRS TO 1.25-1.35
INCH OR ABOUT 175 PCT OF NORMAL. SO INTRODUCED SOME LO CHC POPS INTO
THE FAR W LATE IN THE DAY. INCRSG CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL RISE IN
TEMP TO THE 60S AT MOST PLACES DESPITE STEADY S WIND THAT MAINTAINS
H85 TEMPS IN THE 10-12C RANGE. THE HIEST TEMPS MOST LIKELY TO REACH
AOA 70 WL BE OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E AWAY FM MODERATION OFF LK MI
AND WHERE THE CLDS WL THICKEN LATER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A
PLEASANT END TO SEPTEMBER. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EACH
DAY (VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S)...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. THERE ARE ONLY TWO PERIODS OF
CONCERN WITH CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SHOWER BRUSHING THE AREA. THE FIRST
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY SPINNING IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS SHIFTS TOWARDS
THE AREA. EXPECT THE BEST ENERGY WITH THE WAVE TO BE TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...BUT IT COULD PUSH A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS
NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN U.P. AS THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DISTURBANCE BECOMES INFLUENCED BY A SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE IN CANADA. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AND WESTERN U.P. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY OVER THE WEST. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL WEAKEN
AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND LEAD TO
DECREASING CLOUDS. THE OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A COLD FRONT
POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SOLUTIONS WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE ECMWF
DISSIPATING IT OVER NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE GFS RUNNING IT
THROUGH THE CWA. THINK SLOWLY DROPPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. THE UPPER
TROUGH CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST STILL APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...LEADING TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

ALTHOUGH SOME HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF A DISTURBANCE MOVING NE FM THE
PLAINS WL INVADE UPR MI LATE TNGT/WED...DRY LLVL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH HI PRES WL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL 3 TAF SITES THIS FCST
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THRU
THIS COMING WEEKEND AND COOL LAKE WATERS/HI STABILITY...EXPECT WINDS
NO HIGHER THAN 20 KTS THRU SUN.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC



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