915
FXUS66 KMTR 130710
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1210 AM PDT Mon May 13 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1208 AM PDT Mon May 13 2024

A relatively quiet pattern will persist featuring overnight and
morning coastal clouds with clear skies elsewhere. Inland
temperatures will warm into the 70s and 80s each afternoon with
cool onshore breezes keeping coastal temperatures in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1208 AM PDT Mon May 13 2024

A weak upper low will drift towards the central CA coast while
upstream ridging dominates the northeast Pacific. This pattern will
promote the subsequent deepening of the marine layer today as low
stratus clouds penetrate deeper inland. The top of the marine
inversion has continued to increase, and is now up to around 2,000
feet per the Fort Ord profiler. Given this depth wouldn`t be
surprised to see a little coastal drizzle early this morning in the
favorable spots so added this to the forecast. Any accumulations
should be quite minor. Otherwise look for low clouds to clear back
towards the coast this afternoon with the marine influence keeping
coastal/bayside temperatures in the 60s. Elsewhere look for 70s and
80s in the warmest inland valleys, with a few locations in southern
Monterey County perhaps nearing 90 degrees. Clouds will push back
inland by this evening with mostly cloudy conditions again
prevailing for many areas tonight. Lows will dip into the upper 40s
to lower 50s.
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1208 AM PDT Mon May 13 2024

Temperatures will cool slightly with onshore flow and weak troughing
aloft persisting. An upper ridge does build/strengthen over the
northeast Pacific by mid week, but it appears our area will remain
along its periphery with no strong signal for a warming trend. In
general high temperatures will range from the 60s along the coast to
the lower-mid 80s for the warmest inland areas. This will only
produce a minor HeatRisk for the warmest locations. Lows will
generally be in the lower to mid 50s. Coastal clouds are likely
during the overnight and AM hours with a gradual clearing towards
the coast each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1059 PM PDT Sun May 12 2024

Currently seeing a mix of VFR-LIFR at the terminals. The marine
layer continues to deepen thanks to a coastal trough with coastal
profilers putting the depth of the marine layer somewhere in the
1,400-1,600 foot range. As this deeper marine layer is
subsequently allowed to penetrate further inland, all terminals
will be impacted by a reduction in flight category overnight.
Widespread VFR and breezy onshore flow will prevail by tomorrow
afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with breezy westerly flow. IFR-MVFR
stratus will impact the terminal overnight before scattering out by
late-morning tomorrow. Winds will remain breezy out of the west
through the TAF period. MVFR stratus looks to return in some form
tomorrow night; however, confidence was not high enough to include
it as a definitive ceiling at this time.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently IFR with westerly flow at MRY and
IFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. IFR conditions and light and
variable winds will prevail overnight. Conditions briefly improve to
VFR by late morning with a quick reduction right back down to IFR by
tomorrow evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 1059 PM PDT Sun May 12 2024

Fair weather and stratus continues for the waters of Central
California through the week as high pressure builds over the
Eastern  Pacific. Fresh northwest to northerly winds continue
through mid- week before winds diminish heading into the weekend.
Across the  northern outer waters, fresh to strong gusts will be
possible  through Wednesday. Seas build to 12 to 15 feet by
Tuesday before  gradually abating through the remainder of the
week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pt
     Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Tuesday
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPM
LONG TERM....SPM
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Kennedy

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