Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
548 FXXX10 KWNP 050031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 May 05 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 05-May 07 2024 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 05-May 07 2024 May 05 May 06 May 07 00-03UT 3.67 4.67 (G1) 2.67 03-06UT 3.33 5.67 (G2) 3.00 06-09UT 2.67 5.67 (G2) 2.67 09-12UT 2.33 4.67 (G1) 1.67 12-15UT 2.00 3.67 1.67 15-18UT 3.00 3.67 2.67 18-21UT 4.00 2.67 3.67 21-00UT 5.00 (G1) 2.67 2.67 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 05 May followed by G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) on 06 May due to the arrival of a CME from 03 May. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 05-May 07 2024 May 05 May 06 May 07 S1 or greater 15% 15% 15% Rationale: A slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms exists, primarily due to the flare potential of Region 3663, over the next three days. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 04 2024 0619 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 05-May 07 2024 May 05 May 06 May 07 R1-R2 75% 75% 75% R3 or greater 25% 25% 25% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a chance for R3 (Strong), over the next three days due to the flare potential of multiple regions on the visible disk.