Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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016 FXUS63 KUNR 131615 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1015 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Unsettled this week with periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms, best chances late tonight into Tuesday. -Smoke from Canadian forest fires will slowly push SE out of the region and diminish today, although it will likely return later in the week. -Seasonally temps most of the week. && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Sunday) Issued at 105 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024 Mean NW flow can be expected through the week, supporting occasional weak PAC impulses. Each of these impulses will have the ability to support isold-sct shra/ts as a frontal boundary wavers over the region. Moisture will continue to be limited with most of the impulses as the GOMEX remains closed to the region, leaving the main moisture source as leftover PAC moisture. Slow moving upper trough will support increasing LSA with mid level moisture adv across the region today. This will bring increasing low chances for showers/storms across the western third, starting first over the Black Hills, then across NE WY. CAPE and shear remain highly limited with severe weather not expected. As the upper trough shifts east overnight, pos theta-e adv will support shower chances across the FA, esp the NW third closest to the best LSA. Shower chances will shift SE through the day Tues, with NW winds increasing behind the sfc cool front, possibly bringing more smoke to the region. Unsettled NW flow will persist through the remainder of the week with chances for showers each day. Things trend drier later in the week, with continued low chances for showers each day. Expect most areas will remain dry toward the end of the week, with more isolated convection. Overall, temps will be seasonal with highs generally in the 70s, with Tue-Wed being the coolest days, given weak CAA and lingering shower chances. Overall, any appreciable rain will be localized with most places seeing a few hundredths or less given lack of deep moisture and convective nature of precip. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday) Issued At 1008 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024 Wildfire smoke filtering into the region may cause periods of MVFR visibilities early this afternoon, mainly across western to central South Dakota. Conditions will gradually improve after 20-21z. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and push eastward across the area tonight. Lower flight conditions and erratic and gusty winds are possible near any storms. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC AVIATION...Wong