Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 250527 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1127 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS AROUND CENTRAL NM WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THOUGH MTN OBSCURATIONS SHOULD CONTINUE. TRICKY INITIAL
FORECAST IN REGARDS FOR POSSIBLE MORNING CIG REDUCTIONS THANKS TO
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN AREAS THAT RECENTLY RECEIVED RAIN. THESE PUTS
FOCUS ON THE AREA FROM KGUP EAST TO KABQ...SOUTH TO KONM AND THE
REST OF THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT
KGUP WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF KABQ BUT NO IMPACTS EXPECTED AT TERMINAL. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL SET UP ISO TO SCT SHRAS MONDAY...STARTING ACROSS
THE W AND SPREADING E THRU THE DAY. PUT LIGHT SHRA FOR HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE TERMINAL IMPACTS AND VCSH AS PLACE HOLDER FOR AREAS
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY DURING THE
DAY WITH AFTN GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...549 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED TO SCT SH/TS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHERN/CENTRAL NM
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL/NE AREAS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS THE DRIER
VARIETY WITH BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCD AND GUSTY WINDS. ABQ WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE AN IMPACT EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE USING VCSH AT MOST
TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 03Z TO 05Z. TS IMPACTS LESS LIKELY. THE
NEXT PACIFIC WAVE SHOULD IMPACT WESTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND
HAVE THIS INDICATED AT FMN/GUP. MORE PREVAILING CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FROM WEST TO EAST AS MONDAY PROGRESSES. LATE SHIFTS
CAN UPDATE IN TERMS OF TS IMPACTS/LOWER CIGS. THERE WAS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT LOW CIG/FG DEVELOPMENT WITHIN RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TONIGHT AND SOME IMPACTS TO SAF/ABQ. DECIDED TO OPT OUT OF THAT
POSSIBILITY IN TERMS OF GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE. WILL
WATCH TRENDS IN LATER MODEL GUIDANCE AND SURFACE MOISTURE FIELDS.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...323 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN OVERALL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY REACH NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
ALMOST THREE WEEKS. NONETHELESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
CROSS FROM THE WEST. AFTER LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY A
VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TILT EASTWARD OVER NEW
MEXICO DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DRAWING PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN...A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FRIDAY KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVE CENTRAL AND EAST INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PERSISTING
OVER THE WESTERN US UNTIL THE WEEKEND...WHEN A SUMMER-LIKE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD. INJECTION OF MOISTURE WITH
FRIDAYS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF MOISTURE
AND COOL AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY...SHOULD KEEP
CONVECTION ACTIVE OVER NM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RECYCLES EACH DAY.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL CO EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LIFT NEWD NEXT 24 HRS...HOWEVER NOT BEFORE ADDITIONAL
ENERGY IN IT/S WAKE TRACKS OVER NM MONDAY. DRYLINE HAS SEEPED WWD
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE SHUNTED EWD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NORTHWEST THIRD WILL HAVE DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH WETTING RAIN TODAY...WITH CHANCES DECREASING TONIGHT. THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN WILL HAVE SOME DECENT CHANCES
AGAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FINAL WAVE CROSSES NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM. CONSEQUENTLY...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY
IN TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE LIMITED TO
MAINLY THE NORTHERN MTS AND NEAR THE EASTERN NM BORDER WITH TX. THE
DRYLINE RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...COULD KICK OFF CONVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
EASTWARD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY
WILL KEEP RAINFALL CHANCES GOING CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT THIS WEEK...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SATURDAY WHEN POOR VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL. SOME DRYING ALOFT CENTRAL AND WEST AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL RESULT IN HIGH HAINES FOR THOSE AREAS BUT
OVERALL HIGH TEMPERATURE REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK.
THE HIGH HAINES AREAS COINCIDE WITH MIN RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SHOULD
STAY BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA. THE EXTENDED PERIODS /JUN 2-3/ OF THE
EXTENDED MODELS /GFS AND ECMWF/ SHOW A TROPICAL SYSTEM MIGRATING UP
THE BAJA CA COAST.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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