Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 312235 CCA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
331 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR ACROSS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NEAR RATON PASS WHERE ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. BY SUNDAY...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEATHER OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A PROLONGED WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN. EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF COOL DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CONGEALING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE TAKING
A TURN TO THE EAST OVER MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND IT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
PWATS AT KABQ RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL JAN/FEB VALUES. SPEAKING
OF PWATS...VALUES DID SPIKE UP TO ABOVE 0.61 INCH FOR 3 UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS IN A ROW...MAXING AT 0.65 INCH AT 00Z AND YESTERDAY AT
12Z...ONLY 0.07 FROM AN ALL-TIME JANUARY RECORD AND IN-LINE WITH
MODEL FORECASTS. PRECIPITATION WILL DWINDLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER NEAR RATON PASS THANKS TO UPSLOPE FROM A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE IN THE
1-2 INCH RANGE AND TEMPERATURES WON`T BE COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE
MAJOR CONCERN...SO ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT
BE REQUIRED. WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING WARNINGS TO EXPIRE AT 5 PM
GIVEN ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ONGOING AND RELATIVE WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY OTHER POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARD WORTHY OF
MENTION FOR TONIGHT IS FREEZING FOG...MOSTLY LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU...WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU AND UPPER/MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...ALL CONDITIONAL ON AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. FOG MAY NOT DEVELOP IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY.

A PROLONGED WARM-UP TO BEGIN TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH MUTED SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THANKS TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY AND
THEN GO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH ONE EXCEPTION. ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A SHORT-LIVED COOL DOWN TO THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE
TRANSVERSES THE ROCKIES AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
PICKUP WITH A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE
SHORT-TERM.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN SONORA WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AS MID CLOUDS GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHILE THE WEST WARMS SLIGHTLY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. WEST TO
NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGETOPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS
MONDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES SEWD THROUGH ERN
COLORADO. AS A RESULT...VENTILATION RATES WILL INCREASE MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME...WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR
VENTILATION RATES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. RATES
TREND SIGNIFICANTLY DOWNWARD THURSDAY.

MODELS STILL TRYING TO SETTLE ON THE STRENGTH OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH COLORADO WEDNESDAY. GFS IS STRONGER
THAN THE ECMWF AND BRINGS A STRONGER BACKDOOR FRONT ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE FAR NE PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING. ECMWF
REMAINS DRY AND ONLY BRINGS SLIGHT COOLING TO THE FAR NE PLAINS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE
EAST OVER NEW MEXICO THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AREAS OF -SHRA/-SHSN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NE QUARTER OF NM WITH
LCL SHOWER COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. AREAS OF BR/FZFG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT PARTIALLY CLEAR...CREATING
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  24  47  23  51 /  10   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  19  43  18  46 /  40   5   5   0
CUBA............................  22  40  21  47 /  40   5   5   0
GALLUP..........................  22  49  22  54 /  10   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  20  45  20  51 /  20   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  22  46  22  52 /  20   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  28  47  26  53 /  30   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  34  57  32  59 /  40  10   0   0
CHAMA...........................  14  38  14  42 /  50  10   5   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  24  40  24  45 /  30   5   5   0
PECOS...........................  23  39  23  44 /  30  10   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  15  36  13  42 /  60  10   5   5
RED RIVER.......................  16  32  15  37 /  70  20  10   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  13  33  12  39 /  50  20  10   5
TAOS............................  14  38  12  43 /  50  10   5   5
MORA............................  23  39  22  47 /  40  20  10   5
ESPANOLA........................  25  43  23  48 /  30   5   5   5
SANTA FE........................  25  40  24  45 /  30   5   5   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  22  43  20  47 /  30   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  28  47  27  52 /  20   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  29  49  28  54 /  20   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  26  49  23  55 /  20   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  29  48  27  53 /  20   5   5   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  27  50  24  55 /  20   5   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  28  46  26  52 /  20   5   5   0
SOCORRO.........................  33  51  30  56 /  20   5   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  28  41  26  48 /  20   5   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  27  40  25  49 /  20   5   5   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  22  39  18  49 /  20   5   5   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  24  38  23  48 /  20   5   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  30  44  27  49 /  20   5   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  34  49  31  53 /  30   5   5   5
RUIDOSO.........................  32  46  28  53 /  30  20   5   5
CAPULIN.........................  24  34  22  48 /  60  20  10   5
RATON...........................  24  37  18  51 /  60  20  10   5
SPRINGER........................  25  38  19  52 /  40  20  10   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  22  38  19  49 /  30  10  10   5
CLAYTON.........................  27  36  20  56 /  40  10   5   5
ROY.............................  26  36  19  53 /  40  10   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  29  43  28  59 /  20   5   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  30  45  26  58 /  20   5   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  29  46  27  61 /  20   5   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  33  44  26  55 /  20   5   5   5
PORTALES........................  34  46  27  56 /  20   5   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  33  47  30  57 /  20   5   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  36  51  31  60 /  10   5   5   5
PICACHO.........................  35  48  30  59 /  10  10   5   5
ELK.............................  34  47  29  55 /  20  20   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510>515-526.

&&

$$

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