Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 240545 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1045 PM MST Thu Nov 23 2017

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. Winds will become
gusty in many places on Friday as the flow aloft strengthens and a
surface low forms in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Near
record high temperatures are also expected on Friday with readings
around 12 to 24 degrees above normal.



.PREV DISCUSSION...302 PM MST Thu Nov 23 2017...
Warm and dry conditions will continue through this Holiday weekend.
A weak backdoor cold front will bring some cooling to the eastern
plains Saturday but temperatures will remain above average. Some
changes are on the way next week as storm systems begin to move
through Colorado and northern New Mexico. Cooler conditions will be
accompanied by showers across northern New Mexico Tuesday and
possibly again toward the end of next week.


66F the high temperature so far this afternoon and with another hour
or so of warming, it looks like the all-time record high for
Thanksgiving day will be either tied or broken. Upper high just off
the west coast of northern Baja flattening somewhat this afternoon.
This flattening is in response to an upper level trough moving
through the PACNW and Northern Rockies. The ridge flattening will
result in a westerly flow aloft and when that happens, lee side
surface troughs develop and west winds develop across the eastern
plains. The west winds that result across the plains decrease in
elevation as they move east and warm up as a result. Expect near
record or record warmth across much of the area east of the central
mountains as well as across far western NM Friday. A weak backdoor
cold front associated with the previously mentioned trough will move
into eastern NM Friday night and bring some cooling to the eastern
plains Saturday. Otherwise, warmer than average temperatures along
with dry condtions will continue through Monday.

GFS and ECWMF now showing differences with regard to the timing of a
Pacific trough for Monday night and Tuesday. GFS is the faster of the
two bringing the closed low into northeast NM by 12Z Tuesday while
the ECMWF still has a closed low over far north-central AZ. Either
way, all global models now bring a Pacific storm system through
northern NM early next week with trailing system for late in the
week or next weekend. Additionally, the large-scale pattern remains
favorable for upper level troughs to move through the Southwest U.S.
and Southern Rockies beyond next weekend, mainly thanks to an omega
blocking pattern in the Atlantic Ocean (anomalous convection in the
eastern Atlantic via a positive AMO).



Warming continues as the upper high, currently centered offshore of
the Baja Peninsula, extends a ridge axis northeast across the Desert
Southwest and into the Southern Rockies. The ridge axis will shift
east over the area tonight, giving way to increasing westerlies on
Friday with improved vent rates. A deepening lee side trough will
contribute to stronger winds and downslope warming across the
Eastern Plains Friday, resulting in even warmer high temperatures
ranging from 15 to 25 degrees above normal. Above normal
temperatures, stronger winds, low humidity and Haines indices of 5
will combine to produce a couple hours of critical fire weather
conditions Friday afternoon, but over a small portion of the East
Central Plains and Highlands.

A new ridge axis will amplify over the Intermountain West Saturday,
then shift east over New Mexico on Sunday as the upper high
transitions east across Northern Mexico. This will allow a weak
backdoor cold front to slide down the Eastern Plains Friday night
and provide some cooling on Saturday, with temperatures back well
above normal areawide by Sunday. Vent rates will trend back down
over the weekend and be mostly poor by Sunday.

The ridge axis will shift overhead Sunday night, with the westerlies
on the uptrend Monday featuring a deepening lee side trough as an
upper level trough/low and associated cold front approach from the
west. 12Z medium range model solutions are at odds with the timing
of the upper level trough and cold front Tue/Wed of next week, but
moderate to high confidence on a cool-down with increasing chances
for wetting precipitation across the northern higher terrain.





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