Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 242359 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
559 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A combination of higher low-level moisture across the eastern plains
of NM and an approaching backdoor cold front will result in scattered
showers and lower cigs/vsbys at KTCC and KROW during the early
morning hours of Monday. MVFR to IFR cigs will develop at KROW aft
06Z in the deeper layer moisture and aft 09Z at KTCC. A thunderstorm
will be possible at KTCC and KROW between 06Z-12Z, but confidence
still too low to include in the TAF. VFR conditions are expected at
airports in central and western NM through the TAF period with a
windshift likely late Monday afternoon at KLVS with the backdoor cold
front.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...323 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Much quieter conditions have prevailed today as dry air has moved
across the area. However, moisture will shift back westward into the
plains tonight, and showers and thunderstorms should again develop.
Storms will continue into Monday, and will be enhanced by a back door
cold front quickly pushing southward across the plains. The front
will push westward through the gaps of the central mountain chain
Monday night, creating breezy to windy conditions in the Rio Grande
Valley. It will continue to push westward into Tuesday as another
disturbance slides into southern California and Arizona. With renewed
moisture across all of New Mexico, showers and thunderstorms will be
on tap Tuesday afternoon through the end of the week across much of
the area. Locally heavy rain will be possible. It will certainly be
a wet end to September.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The upper level low is starting to shift northeast over Utah as dry
air has spread over NM resulting in a much quieter day than
yesterday. As associated Pacific cold front is roughly near the
central mtn chain, while the back door segment is poised across
southeast Colorado. The back door segment will weakly shift into
northeast NM overnight. Meanwhile, Gulf moisture will return to the
remainder of the plains after the breezy southwesterly winds
diminish.  Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop this evening
and overnight across the plains where this better moisture exists.
Some nuisance flooding is possible given the antecedent (wetter)
soil moisture conditions.

While eastern NM will be dealing with rain, western NM will again be
quite chilly. Subfreezing temperatures are expected at Farmington,
Gallup, Grants, and many other areas of west central and northwest
NM. Will upgrade the Freeze Watch for the NW Plateau to a freeze
warning. Farmington briefly touched 32 degrees last night, but
tonight, sub-freezing temperatures are expected for a few hours.

The back door front will have a strong push southward on Monday with
additional storms forming along it, then west through the gaps of
the central mountain chain Monday night. Breezy to windy conditions
are expected below canyons Monday night in the ABQ Metro. As this
occurs, additional upper level energy will slide southward on the
back side of the original low. This secondary energy will close off
into a low over SoCal and slowly shift eastward through Wednesday.
Over NM, the low level moisture will shift westward, allowing for
showers and thunderstorms to develop across western and central NM
Tuesday, and become more widespread on Wednesday. Locally heavy rain
is possible.  By Thursday, the low will shift northeast across the
Four Corners, keeping storms active across NM, then another back
door front looks to arrive Friday. In other words, it looks to be
quite active tonight through next Sunday, when drier air finally
arrives after the trough/low setup over western NM shifts eastward.
That said, there will be periods when the atmosphere stabilizes,
particularly across eastern NM behind back door cold fronts, where
thunderstorms will be less common, and rain will prevail.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A quiet day so far with no rain, instead there`s been plenty of
sunshine. This break will be short-lived however, as moisture
returns to eastern NM via west TX. While the mid and upper levels of
the atmosphere have dried out, there is still plenty of low level
moisture on the eastern plains. This could spark a few thunderstorms
later this afternoon near the TX border. Showers and storms will
likely expand westward and become more widespread this evening over
the eastern lowlands, and then continue through the late night
hours. Meanwhile a back door cold front will approach far northeast
NM toward daybreak, then continue south during the day, adding fuel
to the fire by way of a moist, upslope flow from the eastern plains
to the east slopes of the central mountains. So, Monday will be
cooler and more moist in the east with plenty of showers and storms,
while the west squeezes in one more nice day with lots of sun, not
much wind and high temperatures near pleasant late September
normals.

But that will change starting Tuesday. The back door front will
easily spill into the Rio Grande Valley to the Continental Divide
Monday night, even making it to the AZ border Tuesday morning. The
next deep trough and closed low will be taking shape to our west,
with the upper low along the southern CA/AZ border by Tuesday night.
In addition to the increase in low level moisture into the west from
the back door front, mid and upper level moisture will stream north
ahead of the deepening trough. Showers will become more widespread
Tuesday, which includes the west. The most active day will be
Wednesday as the closed low moves northeast across AZ. Models are in
decent agreement with the low near the four corners region Thursday
and lifting the low northward Friday. Another back door cold front
could impact the east late in the week. All this means more wetting
rain for most, of not all, of the forecast area for Thursday through
Friday night.

A short wave trough will cross NM next weekend, finally bringing
some drier air to the state. But isolated to scattered showers and
storms will still be around next weekend. So, it looks like an
active and wet week for many areas, adding to our recent rains,
especially in the east.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM MDT Monday for the following
zones... NMZ501.

&&

$$


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