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FXUS65 KABQ 202112
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
312 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A SMALL BUT WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF IT
ACROSS NORTHERN NM. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
MEAGER...GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MEANWHILE...A WEAK
FRONT/BOUNDARY REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHEAST NM...AND A FEW
SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE FORMED ALONG IT AS WELL. FURTHER
SOUTH...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. AS THESE WINDS DIMINISH...THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL MAKE
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD. SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...THUS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE EAST...AND HAVE SPREAD SOME SMALL
POPS SOUTHWARD TO QUAY AND CURRY COUNTIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. AS
MIXING ENSUES DURING THE DAY...THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY WASH OUT AND
WHAT MOISTURE THAT WAS USHERED IN WILL MOSTLY SCOUR OUT.  ANY
RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST...BUT AGAIN NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT. THEN...SHORTWAVE RIDGING STILL ON TAP FOR
WEDNESDAY...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
INACTIVE DAY OF THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND WE WILL BE WATCHING THE DIURNAL SLOSHING OF THE
DRYLINE.  ON THURSDAY...GULF MOISTURE WILL JUST BE MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS...WHILE DRY AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN ACROSS
THE WEST. THURSDAY NIGHT...THE GULF MOISTURE WILL MAKE A BETTER PUSH
WESTWARD...AND MAY EVEN BACK UP TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD MIX BACK EASTWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  JUST HOW
FAR EAST REMAINS IN QUESTION...THOUGH IT DOES LOOK LIKE STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOSH BACK AND FORTH OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW FAR EAST IT WILL MIX OUT
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.


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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINES AS IS WITH THE RED FLAG EXPIRING AT 8
PM MDT. CURRENTLY SEEING SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY WITH STRONG WINDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS...EXTENDING
BACK INTO THE ESTANCIA BASIN AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. EXPECTING HIGHER RECOVERIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
TONIGHT WITH WEAKER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EAST. POOR RECOVERIES WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FIRE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP DURING THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY
AROUND SUNSET. A MODERATE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND IMPACT THE NORTHERN MTNS AND
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SOME MEASURABLE IF NOT
EXCEEDING A TENTH OF AN INCH FROM THIS ACTIVITY.

CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
BOTH IN TERMS OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS VERY
DEEP MIXING...HIGH HAINES AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY. THIS WILL BE
COMPLICATED SOME ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THE DRYLINE WILL PUNCH IN AND
SLOSH BACK AND FORTH. SUPER HAINES SHOWING UP WITHIN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST STARTING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY SOUTHWEST HALF BUT INCREASING
IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IS PORTRAYED BY
THE MODELS TO MOVE OVER THE STATE DURING THIS PERIOD AND SERVE AS A
CATALYST FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY AND POOR
RECOVERY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
AND STRENGTHEN TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS...BOTH DAY AND NIGHT BETWEEN
5 TO 10 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE EAST WITH 10 TO
15 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL READINGS AT TIMES.

AS FAR AS WIND AND CRITICAL CONDITIONS THAT WAY...STRONGEST BREEZES
SHOULD BE FELT ACROSS THE FAR WEST BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  A
SECONDARY AREA FOUND BETWEEN LAS VEGAS TO CLINES CORNERS OVER TO
SANTA ROSA ON THOSE SAME DAYS...BASICALLY THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RETREATING DRY LINE AS IT MIXES EAST. WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WATCH AT
THIS TIME DUE TO COVERAGE AREA BUT WILL LOOK CLOSELY AT ZONE 105 IN
THE COMING DAYS. IT APPEARS THE MODELS LOWER THE WIND SLIGHTLY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT THEN BUMP READINGS BACK ON SUNDAY. DID
DECIDE TO ADJUST READINGS SLIGHTLY UP FOR SUNDAY BUT ECMWF AND GFS
ARE SLIGHTLY AT ODDS WITH THEIR MID LEVEL WIND SPEEDS. GFS IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN ECMWF. OVERALL THOUGH...ECMWF AND GFS FAIRLY SIMILAR
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS ON THEIR DEPICTION OF THE OVERALL FLOW WITH
WEST COAST TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS.
PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW DUE TO HOW THE JET DIGS INTO THE TROUGH.

AS FAR AS THE DRYLINE IS CONCERNED...DECIDED TO BUMP DEWPOINTS UP
NEAR THE TEXAS STATE LINE AND ALSO PUSHED THE HIGHER READINGS
FURTHER WEST OVERNIGHT. TYPICALLY IS THE CASE AND MODELS SOMETIMES
DONT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT WESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW FROM THE PREVIOUS
EVENINGS CONVECTION. BUT THEN DRASTICALLY DRY THE DEWPOINTS OUT AS THE
DRYLINE MIXES EAST. THUS CREATING QUITE A RH CHANGE DURING THE DAY
PERIODS WED AND THURSDAY. DRYLINE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG
THIS RETREATING DRYLINE AND MOST LIKELY FAVOR THE TEXAS STATE LINE.
SOME OF THE STORMS WOULD BE OF THE WETTING KIND. TOO EARLY TO SAY
HOW MUCH COVERAGE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES...RIGHT NOW
GOING ISOLATED.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BUBBLE UP LIKE
YESTERDAY AND TEND TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OR NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SERVE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS AS IT
CROSSES OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. GOING WITH VCSH AT GUP AND ABQ BUT LIKING THE CHANCES
MORE AND MORE AT SAF/LVS AND ULTIMATELY TCC. USED A TEMPO AND
ASSOCIATED GUSTY WINDS TO BETWEEN 30 TO 35 KT WITH THAT ACTIVITY.
MTN TOP OBSCD WILL OCCUR AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALL
TERMINAL SITES WILL HAVE GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH
AFTERNOON.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  42  76  45  84 /  10   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  30  71  35  79 /  20   5   0   0
CUBA............................  34  73  39  80 /  10   5   0   0
GALLUP..........................  33  75  37  80 /   5   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  30  70  35  75 /   5   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  35  76  39  81 /   5   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  39  75  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  42  81  44  85 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  32  64  32  70 /  20  10   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  42  69  50  76 /  10   5   0   0
PECOS...........................  41  66  48  74 /   5   5   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  34  68  40  75 /  20  10   5   5
RED RIVER.......................  31  57  34  65 /  30  20  10   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  26  61  29  70 /  20  10  10   5
TAOS............................  33  70  35  77 /  10   5   5   5
MORA............................  37  66  42  75 /  10   5   5   5
ESPANOLA........................  40  75  45  82 /   5   5   0   0
SANTA FE........................  43  71  46  77 /   5   5   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  41  74  43  82 /   5   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  51  76  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  50  77  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  49  79  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  47  77  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  46  80  48  86 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  47  78  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  50  86  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  42  74  50  82 /   0   5   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  44  75  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  42  72  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  40  71  46  80 /   0   5   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  44  74  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  46  78  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  43  70  50  77 /   0   5   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  38  66  43  78 /  30  10  10   5
RATON...........................  38  71  40  81 /  20  10   5   5
SPRINGER........................  39  72  40  82 /  10  10   5   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  37  71  43  80 /  10   5   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  44  74  48  84 /  20  10  10   0
ROY.............................  43  71  45  83 /  10   5   5   0
CONCHAS.........................  48  79  50  90 /  10   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  47  80  51  88 /   5   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  49  80  53  92 /  10   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  50  79  52  90 /   5   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  50  80  52  91 /   5   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  51  80  54  91 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  56  85  55  95 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  50  82  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  48  77  53  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ106>108.

&&

$$

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