Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXAK67 PAJK 040017
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
417 PM AKDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF HAS ALLOWED FOR BREAKS OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES AT THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AND COOLING TEMPS AT 850MB
HAS INCREASED INSTABILITY OVER THE GULF. AS A RESULT SCATTERED
SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE AND RADAR APPROACHING THE
PANHANDLE. EXPECT THESE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT DUE TO PVA THEN
TOMORROW THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS A FRONTAL BAND
MOVE ACROSS THE NE GULF. YAKUTAT WILL GET THE BRUNT OF THESE
SHOWERS AS WELL AS W-SW FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS SHOWERS MOVE IN. THIS WILL CAUSE
LESS CHANCE OF FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT IF THERE ARE ANY LARGER BREAKS
BY MORNING THAT WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED. ALTHOUGH IT WOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED WITH AMOUNT OF DRYING TODAY. EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
THE FAR SE PANHANDLE THAT DID GET RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...PATCHY FOG TOMORROW MORNING IS MORE LIKELY.

USED MAINLY THE GFS22 AND GEM-REGIONAL FOR UPDATES TODAY...THEN
ADJUSTED FOR LOCAL EFFECTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE...BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER ON AMOUNT OF SHOWERS (SCATTERED VS
NUMEROUS).

.LONG TERM...SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA.
THE FRONTAL BAND WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND THE
PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY AGREE
QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE A THREAT AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH RAPID RISES ON THE RIVERS AND
STREAMS IS LIKELY.

WIND WISE GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE GULF MARINE ZONES ALSO LIKELY
DUE TO THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN DIMINISHING SATURDAY.
LAND AREAS MAY SEE GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 IN EXPOSED AND OR FAVORED
AREAS.

LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS TRYING TO HINT THAT DRYING LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WILL BE TRYING TO OCCUR AND THAT THE TAIL END OF THE
MOTHERS DAY WEEKEND WOULD BE BETTER. COULD SEE A DAY OR SO DRY
WEATHER EARLY NEXT... OR EVEN MORE. WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PLAY OUT IN SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS. CONFIDENCE
IS ABOVE AVERAGE TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ051-052.
&&

$$

FERRIN/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU


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