Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 291104
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
704 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread rain will continue across the region this morning.
A second round of showers and storms is possible this afternoon.
Additional chances for showers and storms will exist Tuesday and
Wednesday...mainly during the afternoon and evening. A few
storms may become strong.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
400 am update...
Main concerns in the near term are focused around the broad swath of
rain showers moving through this morning, a second round of showers
and maybe an isolated storm this afternoon, and then the potential
for a slightly stronger line of storms Tuesday afternoon.

Lead short wave lifting newd through the region this morning with a
narrow band of deep moisture associated with it and minimal elevated
instability...but enough to generate a broad area of rain showers
and possibly a few embedded storms through this afternoon. Brief
heavy rain will be the primary concern with this system. May see as
much as 0.75 inch of rain. There will likely be the main band of
rain this morning, and possibly a brief break in the late morning
and early afternoon before a secondary line of convection forms
across w-central NY and tracks to the east through the afternoon. If
there is clearing/scattering out of the clouds this afternoon,
conditions may become slightly more unstable and favorable for
showers and storms.

Weather conditions ramp down tonight as weak ridging aloft and WAA
in the mid levels produce some large scale suppression and induce a
low level inversion. There will likely be a robust stratus deck that
develops tonight...which should keep temperatures mild...in the 50s.

The low clouds in place Tuesday morning will quickly lift and
dissipate as the next upper wave approaches from the w/nw and
provides sufficient mixing to scatter out the clouds. The lack of
cloud cover is expected to be short lived as a cumulus field fills
in by late morning and convection begins to develop over the Finger
Lakes. CAPE values 1000-1500 J/kg and steep low level lapse rates
combine with gt 50 kt of deep layer shear and around 1 inch PWATs to
trigger convective showers and storms. These storms will track to
the east through the afternoon and be capable of small hail, gusty
winds and brief heavy rain.

Temperatures will remain mild with highs in the 60s and 70s. Surface
dew points in the upper 50s and 60s will make it feel relatively humid.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The generally unsettled pattern will persist through this period
due to an upper level trough which will remain stuck over the
east. To start the period Tuesday evening, showers/storms will
diminish through the evening with the loss of daytime heating
with mainly dry weather overnight. Lows will be mostly in the
low 50s.

For Wednesday, the next shortwave will rotate around the base of
the upper level trough and into the area and this combined with
another surface trough and daytime heating will lead to another
day of showers and storms developing by the afternoon. Despite
surface temps being relatively cool, forecast models prog 500+
J/kg of ML CAPE due to the cold air aloft. Also, deep layer
shear will be around 50 knots with L57 lapse rates of around 6.5
C/km. The upshot is that any storms will once again have the
potential of producing gusty winds and small hail. Highs will be
a little cooler than Tuesday...mostly in the upper 60s to low
70s.

Showers/storms diminish Wednesday evening with the loss of
heating with partial clearing overnight as a surface ridge
begins to move east toward the region. Lows will be mainly in
the upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
4 am update...No major changes to long range forecast. The only
real change was to lower next Saturday`s POPs to slight chance
as most models are now indicating we should sneak in another dry
day between systems. For further details, please see discussion
below.

445 pm Sunday update...The same basic long-wave pattern remains
in tact, with troughing/below normal heights over the Great
Lakes and northeastern states. Thus, temperatures will stay on
the cool side for early June, along with at least some threat of
showers most of the time.

It appears we may be able to sneak out one dry day Thursday, as
surface ridging temporarily builds in behind Wednesday`s systems
mentioned above. However, the chances for showers should
increase again towards next weekend, as the next surface low,
frontal complex, and series of upper-level waves approach.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ceilings will continue to drop to MVFR/IFR the rest of this
morning. Rain showers will continue to spread nwd with a period
of MVFR vsbys in light fog/ra. Heavier rain is expected to
taper off from now until 15Z, with only a few light unrestricted
showers through the rest of the morning. A line of weak
convection will develop in the afternoon and impact portions of
central NY and ne PA for a few hours with brief rain showers.
The most favorable area will be across the Finger Lakes. VFR
conditions are expected at all sites from the afternoon into
the evening except KRME and KAVP which may remain MVFR. Toward
the end of the TAF period conditions may deteriorate with lower
ceilings developing just before 06Z...and falling to IFR after
07Z.

SE winds 5-10 knots and gusts 15 to 20 kt expected this morning.
Winds will shift to the south and eventually to the sw 5 to 10
kt by the afternoon. Winds become light and variable tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday and Wednesday...Restrictions possible from scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday...Generally VFR.

Friday...Potential restrictions in rain showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...BJT


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