Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 301448
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1048 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather will continue to be the theme of the forecast
through the weekend as the storm system that has impacted the
region the past few days, continues to influence the weather.
Drier conditions are expected to return early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Updated at 1030 AM...
Areas of light rain have overspread most of the forecast area late
this morning and have tweaked pops to raise values slightly across
the north where some very light rain has moved in. Otherwise
expect the rain to continue moving north with some tendency to
diminish from southwest to northeast later this afternoon as some
dryer air tries to move in from the south-southwest. Have also
lowered temperatures in many areas where clouds and persistent
showers will keep values down in the lower to mid 50s. Previous
discussion is below.

400 AM EDT Update...
Light rain showers are present over NEPA and portions of central
NY. These showers are expected to expand northward and towards the
NW as the next surge of Atlantic moisture moves into the region.
Overall expect another day with overcast skies with light rain
showers as the uppr low remains stationary over the midwest.
Showers are expected to become more widespread through the day as
waves embedded within the flow aloft moves over the region along
with strong isentropic lift. These showers will lift northward and
slowly drift towards the NE this afternoon. Expect showers to
weaken near 00Z tonight as isentropic lift weakens and drier air
moves into the region from the west.

Afternoon temps will be a few degrees cooler today than yesterday as
mostly cloudy skies will prevent much diurnal heating. Temps are
expected to reach the mid 50s to low 60s. There will be a small
diurnal spread tonight as temps are expected to remain in the 50s
across much of the area through 12Z Saturday.

Friday night the cutoff low will slowly start to shift northward,
and finally become engulfed within the northern stream. By
Saturday night, the low will be centered over the great lakes
region. The positioning of the low Saturday will still continue
to impact the weather over the northeast. Thus, mostly cloudy
skies and another round of rain showers may be possible. Saturday
will be another chilly day with temps reaching the low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
350 AM EDT Update...
During this period the slow moving upper level low will track from
southern Michigan to western New York. Scattered showers will
continue through the period with perhaps more widespread and
significant showers on Sunday due to diurnal instability. The GFS
actually shows a few hundred J/KG of CAPE on Sunday but will not
mention thunder yet as other models differ. Lows will range in the
50s with high temperatures Sunday from the middle 60s to near 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
350 AM EDT Update...
Upper level low weakens as it tracks across the vicinity on Monday
followed by a building upper level ridge during the mid week period.
Scattered showers will continue Monday into Monday evening then
conditions will become rain free through Thursday as upper level
heights rise and surface high pressure over eastern Canada builds
south. Temperatures through the period will run 5 to 10 degrees
above normal with highs in ranging from the middle 60s to around 70
and lows in the upper 40s to middle 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Showers continue to move into central NY this morning. For the
most part, all TAF sites are still VFR. These conditions are still
expected to slowly deteriorate this afternoon and evening deep
Atlantic moisture moves across the region. Flight conditions are
expected to fall to fuel alternate around mid afternoon. Deep
moisture will linger through the evening resulting in ceilings
falling to IFR for all TAF sites except KSYR, KRME and KAVP.

Easterly surface winds 5-10 kt will persist with a few gusts to 15
kt through the forecast period.

OUTLOOK...

Saturday night-Sunday...Occasional restrictions possible from
lower ceilings and showers.

Monday-Tuesday...Mostly VFR. Early morning fog possible at KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MSE
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...KAH



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