Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 180639
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
139 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Occasional light rain showers and drizzle will occur overnight,
though temperatures at higher elevations east of Interstate 81
will still support patchy freezing rain or freezing drizzle.
Scattered rain showers will continue to diminish Wednesday, with
wet snow mixed in at higher elevations though also patchy freezing
drizzle Wednesday night. Generally dry Thursday and Friday, then rain
returns to the forecast this weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 PM UPDATE...

Updated to extend the freezing rain advisory until 7 am and expand
it south into the Poconos. Temperatures have risen little since
coming in at 2 PM. On the plus side steadier rain will move out of
the area before midnight. Patchy rain and drizzle will continue
most of the night.

8 pm update...
Back edge of rain crossing the CWA now. This will exit this
evening leaving patchy drizzle. Temperatures continue at or below
freezing across the higher terrain in ne PA and the eastern third
of central NY. Temperatures below freezing most widespread in
Wayne and Sullivan. Not getting too many reports of slippery roads
and accumulating freezing rain. Temperatures should rise slowly
the rest of tonight. Another problem will be the dense fog which
has developed over the higher terrain in ne PA and the Catskills.
This will continue and lower tonight. Adjusted grids to show this.

230 pm Update...
Main concerns in the near term remain focused around the broad
area of rain over much of the forecast area with intermittent
light freezing rain across the colder, elevated areas of the
Catskills this afternoon and evening. A Freezing Rain Advisory
remains in effect for Oneida, Otsego, Delaware and Sullivan
counties in central NY until 10 pm tonight.

Surface low currently moving ewd into wrn NY this afternoon with
an associated upper wave contracting across nrn NY. A secondary
upper wave is quickly following in its footsteps and driving ewd
through the srn Great Lakes. This secondary upper trough has
relatively colder air associated with it...850mb temps around -1
to -3 deg C. The nose of warm air aloft that created favorable
conditions for freezing rain continues to linger over the
Catskills and ern NY today...and will interact with slightly
cooling sfc temps to trigger additional chances for light freezing
rain from Oneida to Sullivan County through this evening.

However...much cooler air aloft will begin to push in this
evening as the upper trough moves in. Temperatures at the surface
will remain in the mid to upper 30s/lower 40s for a good portion
of central NY and ne PA tonight. So...with an above freezing near
surface layer most of the precip will be allowed to fall as
rain...with the exception of elevated areas mentioned previously.

Will see conditions become favorable for areas of fog and low
clouds tonight as well. With the boundary layer near saturation
and cooling conditions aloft, the potential for fog formation
appears to increase tonight and Wed morning.

Will likely see the bulk of the colder air aloft move in during
the day tomorrow...which will combine with lower to mid 30 surface
temps to mix in or change the rain over to snow. Best chance of
light accumulating snow...around an inch or less...will be in the
higher terrain locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure and quiet weather Thursday night will give way to
scattered showers on Friday. A weak surface cyclone spinning
around a central U.S. upper level trough will pull moisture back
into western NY and PA. The rain showers may mix with snow showers
east of I-81, where temperatures will be a few degrees colder than
the rest of the FA.

A lull in the action is forecast for Saturday and Saturday night
when the central U.S. trough retrogrades to the west.

Temperatures will remain much warmer than normal, with highs
Friday and Saturday in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The long term period is forecast to be mild and rainy.

As the next storm system slowly crawls eastward, Sunday looks to
remain dry and mild. Unseasonably mild temperatures in the 40s are
predicted.

Early Monday, the central U.S. trough will close off over MS/AL
while a large surface cyclone spins over the eastern conus.
Copious moisture is progged to race northward into NY/PA, setting
a stage for steady rains Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak flow and abundant low level moisture will keep widespread
IFR/Alternate minimum conditions with drizzle and fog over the
terminals through the mid morning, as a slow moving low pressure
system remains in the vicinity. Around 15Z as flow becomes
west/northwest 5-8 knots at KSYR-KELM-KAVP conditions will
improve to alternate required, but improvement for remainder of
terminals will only manage to get up to IFR. Through early morning
wind will remain light and variable or light east-southeast.

OUTLOOK...

Late Wednesday night into early Thursday...Lingering ceiling
restrictions.

Late Thursday through Friday...VFR.

Friday night and Saturday...Chance for rain and associated
restrictions; possibly mixed with snow for KRME.

Sunday...Generally VFR conditions expected.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Freezing Rain Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for PAZ040-
     048-072.
NY...Freezing Rain Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ009-
     037-046-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...BJT/TAC
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MDP


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