Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 300739
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
339 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
DRIER WEATHER WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
320 PM UPDATE...

AN H5 TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYER
THROUGH MID WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS TROF A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND STREAM
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES, EXTENDING FORM THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH
PA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE A ROUND OF
SHOWERS THIS MORNING, OVERSPREADING THE AREA SHORTLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. AS THIS MOVES TOWARD OUR EAST BY MID MORNING,
INCREASING INSTABILITY COMBINING WITH NEW SHORT WAVES MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST WILL INCREASE AERIAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SPC HAS
EXPANDED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER INTO NEPA, AND A
MARGINAL RISK FOR THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY/TONIGHT. MLCAPE VALUES ARE
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY, WITH AN AVERAGE AROUND 600 TO 800 J/KG, WHEN
AVERAGING BETWEEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM, AND LESS AGGRESSIVE
GFS. WHILE CAPE VALUES HAVE DECREASED, SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE A BIT
STRONGER WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS OF 30 TO 40 KTS. WITH DRY AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS AND SHEAR VALUES CONDUCIVE TO ROTATING STORMS,
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE PRIMARY THREATS. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN WE GENERATE, WITH
SHOWERS EARLY AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS. A SHORT WAVE NOW OVER
WISCONSIN WILL KEEP AT LEAST THE THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS AROUND TONIGHT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE H5 TROF MENTIONED ABOVE MOVES THROUGH ALONG WITH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF BOTH FEATURES. I LIKE THE IDEA OF KEEPING A
FEW SHOWERS AROUND INTO THURSDAY ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM KELM
TO KBGM SOUTH AND EAST, WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY BOUNDARY.
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY DRIES US OUT THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
0245 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED POPS DOWN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY TRENDING DRIER. FOR FRIDAY, ONLY AREA WHERE
SHOWERS ARE MENTIONED IS FROM AROUND SCRANTON SOUTH WHERE WE KEPT
A SLIGHT CHANCE IN. FOR THE 4TH, GEM STILL SHOWING WET SOLUTION
WHILE GFS/ECMWF MAINLY DRY SO WE HAVE AREA WIDE 30 POP IN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD, IN GENERAL FOLLOWED WPC
GUIDANCE. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A BROAD/WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO NE PA WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE FA REMAINS DRY. ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL
MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRING THE AREA CONVECTION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER
THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM IMPACTS
THE AREA ON MONDAY. OVERALL A CONTINUATION OF A VERY ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING IN SHOWERS FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL
ARRIVE TOWARD THE LATE NIGHT / EARLY MORNING TIME FRAME AND THEN
CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. AT TIMES BGM/ITH/ELM
MIGHT FALL TO MVFR TOWARD LATE MORNING. ALSO, LATE DAY ALL SITES
WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS BEFORE SHOWERS/STORMS COME TO AN END BY THE OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT.

E TO SE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE AROUND 3 TO 6 KTS BECOMING SOUTH
TO SW AT AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR TUESDAY. SOME AFTN GUSTS OF 15 TO 25
KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED...HIGHEST AROUND KITH.

.OUTLOOK...

WED...SCATTERED SHRA-TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

THU - FRI...MAINLY VFR.

SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...PCF


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