Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 310121
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
921 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
915 PM UPDATE...FORECAST IN FINE SHAPE NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED,
ENJOY THE COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT TEMPS/DEW POINTS.

530 PM UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS FROM SE FA AS FRONT
HAS CLEARED AREA WITH NO DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BEHIND BOUNDARY.

230 PM UPDATE...

DRY AIR COMING IN FAST WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S. RAIN
ALMOST OUT OF THE CWA BUT IT IS POSSIBLE MOVE WILL FORM. HAVE CHC
POPS UNTIL AROUND 8 PM FAR SE.

GUSTY WINDS NOW WILL DROP QUICKLY AT SUNSET. WITH THE DRY AIR
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL NICELY. MIN TEMPS UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
BUT AROUND ELMIRA MAY BE COOLER. GUIDANCE LOW 50S. WITH THE RAPID
DRY ADVECTION DO NOT THINK RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD
AND DENSE SO DID NOT INCLUDE. ONLY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ACROSS
MOST OF CWA WILL DISAPPEAR. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SW.

FRIDAY A REVERSE WITH FEW TO SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CU FORMING
AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S. SOME
MODELS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD 00Z BUT SHOULD BE TOUGH TO
BREAK INTO THIS DRY AIRMASS. KEPT THE CHC POPS AT 00Z IN THE FAR
NW...FINGER LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN
CHANGE ALOFT AS RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. IS
PUSHED WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY. HOWEVER TIMING
WITH THESE SYSTEMS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AND AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS AS
WINDS ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MODERATELY STRONG FOR THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST... HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A
CHC OF CONVECTION EACH DAY... MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING... HOWEVER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY HOWEVER THE OVERALL
TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWNWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY INTENSIFIES AND DRIFTS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FNT HAS MVD WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND A DRIER
FLOW OF AIR FROM THE NW REMAINS OVER THE AREA. DROPPING DEW PTS
AND A GOOD FLOW AT AND ABV THE BNDRY LYR SHD LIMIT THE FOG
FORMATION OVRNGT...SO OTR THAN SOME OCNL MVFR AT ELM...VFR CONDS
ARE XPCTD TO PREVAIL THRU THE NGT AND FRI. WLY WINDS ARND 10 KNTS
WILL RETURN AFT SUNRISE FRI.

.OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR IN
SHOWERS. ALSO RESTRICTIONS IN MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM POSSIBLE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DGM/TAC


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