Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 130748
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
348 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL WORK OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WORKING INTO
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UNSETTLED PTRN OVER THE NXT FEW DAYS AS STRONG UPR LOW...WITH
S/WV`S PIVOTING ARND IT...DROPS SEWD INTO THE GTLAKES. MDLS TDA
SHOW THE DVLPMNT OF A PRE-FNTL TROF ACRS CNTRL NY AND PA THIS
AFTN...WITH CDFNT MOVG INTO WRN NY.

LOW LVL JET FOCUSES ACRS WRN NY ACRS LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE WHERE BEST UPR LVL DVRGNC WILL BE LOCATED.  BIG QUESTION WILL BE
AMT OF HEATING WE GET TDA. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH ALOT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACRS THE RGN THIS MRNG. MESO
DATA ACTUALLY SHOWS SFC TEMPS FALLING THIS AFTN ACRS CNTRL NY WITH
PSSG OF A CONVECTIVE LINE. NAM CAPES MAX OUT BETWEEN 500-1000
J/KG. GFS CAPES MUCH LESS GNRLY 250-500. LCL WRF GETS CAPE UP TO
750 J/KG BUT INDICATES A TALL SKINNY CAPE. WIND FIELDS LOOK GOOD
HOWEVER. PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES APRCHNG 2 INCHES. RUC BRN`S IN
THE SUPERCELL RNG THIS AFTN. FOR NOW...WE WILL INDICATE POTNL FOR
+RA AND GUSTY WINDS WITH TSRA THIS AFTN/EVNG.

ACTIVITY SHUD SLIDE INTO NE PA BY EARLY EVNG...WITH BEST CHCS FOR
SHRA/TSRA PERSISTING ACRS THIS AREA TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPR LOW CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GTLAKES THIS PD WHILE ASSUMING A
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILT. MSTR XPCTD TO MOV BACK NWD
AHEAD OF THE NXT S/WV AND SFC FNT LATE MON AND MON NGT. SOME
TIMING DIFFS EMERGE LATE IN THE PD BUT TREND WILL BE FOR IMPRVG
CONDITIONS ACRS THE RGN ON TUE NGT. XCPTN MAY BE ACRS THE POCONOS
AND SRN CATSKILLS WHERE POTNL FOR MDT TO HVY SHRA/TSRA MAY EXIST
AS AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES LIFTS NEWD ALONG THE FNT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
345 AM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHGS TO LONG TERM GRIDS AS MODELS HV FINALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT WITH FROPA OCCURRING BY WED MRNG. UL TROF WL BE HANGING BACK
TO THE WEST WITH SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS DRG THE DAY WED. TROF LIFTS
OUT ON THURSDAY WITH SFC HIPRES BUILDING IN. THUS, HV KEPT
THURSDAY DRY BFR MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP NWD ON FRIDAY IN THE
FORM OF SLGT CHC THUNDER AS HIPRES SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO KICK IN.

TEMPS SIMILAR TO PRIOR FCST WITH TEMPS BLO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, HIGHS IN THE M70S AND LOWS IN THE L50 AND POSSIBLY U40S
IN NOTORIOUS CLDR VLY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WL MODERATE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS SRLY FLOW WL DRAW WARM AIR BACK TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
HIGH BKN-OVC CIRRUS DOMINANT ACROSS TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING HOURS. AFTER 12Z THESE CLOUDS LOWER TO MID-DECK BUT STILL
VFR. EXPECT LOW VFR DECK TO DEVELOP BY 16Z AT ALL TERMINALS. AS
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AREA EXPECT -TSRA TO DEVELOP AFTER
17Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 01Z, DEPENDING ON TERMINAL. STILL TOO
FAR OUT TO GET SPECIFIC WITH REGARD TO LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDER AND
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS, THUS HAVE GONE WITH PROB30.

LGT/VRB AT ALL SITES TONIGHT. SSW WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SHRA/TSRA.

WED/THUR...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN



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