Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 240810

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
410 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

The majority of the upcoming week looks chilly, with daily highs
only in the forties to lower fifties. A few light lake effect rain
or snow showers are possible over central New York later today through
Tuesday. Otherwise, mainly dry weather is forecast for the first
half of the week.


At 4 AM this morning a fast moving surface low is located over
northern New Jersey and will be off the east coast shortly. Local
radars show spotty light rain in the far southeast forecast area
and this will pull out shortly.

Behind this feature a cyclonic northwest flow of cold somewhat
moist air will build over the region. The area will be mostly
cloudy today except for the downslope areas of northeast
Pennsylvania. By this afternoon T85 drops to -4C which is cold
enough for some lake enhanced rain showers. The NAM is not too
excited about this possibility but the Canadian Regional and GFS
both indicate isolated to scattered activity across central New
York with a Georgian Bay connection. Will continue with slight
chance/chance pops especially this afternoon. Highs will range in
the middle 40s to around 50.

Tonight and Tuesday...Cold northwest flow continues through the
period with T85 around -6C which will keep isolated to scattered
lake effect rain and snow showers over central New York. With
overnight lows in the upper 20s to middle 30s there could be a
dusting on the hilltops. Tuesday will feel rather chilly with a
brisk northwest wind and maximum temperatures in the lower to
middle 40s.


3 am update...

A deep northwest flow of cold air as 850mb temps fall to
-8C Tuesday night. Multi band snow showers in central NY with only
light accumulations. Low temperatures mostly mid and upper 20s. High
pressure comes late Tuesday night with dry sinking air. Wednesday
the high breaks the up the remaining lake effect clouds before the
next system brings clouds in late in the day. Highs still below
normal at 40 to 45.

Wednesday night clouds increase quickly from the west ahead of a
surface low in the midwest. Models faster with precipitation
possibly starting late at night. Again lows 25 to 30 so any
precipitation will be snow to start. Could be light snow


3 am update...

Little change. Models are close. Faster onset of precipitation with
the Thursday system. With temperatures around freezing some snow
accumulation into Thursday. WAA will turn the snow to rain midday.
Right now the bulk of the precipitation will be rain during the
afternoon. The rain and occluded front exits Thursday evening. Gets
cold enough Thursday night for a mix before ending. With an upper
level trough over the area lake effect showers and clouds start
again for Friday and Friday night mainly in central NY.

Next strong surface low drops southeast through the Great Lakes this
weekend. This looks to be mainly rain on Saturday with highs around
50.  Sunday more northwest flow but not as cold. Euro now has low
level flow from the north and northeast ahead of a large area of
high pressure dropping southeast.


A fast moving weak area of low pressure in northern Pennsylvania
will bring restrictions early this morning to the southern terminals.
At KBGM/KAVP, MVFR conditions in rain showers will continue until
08Z. Once the showers at KAVP end VFR conditions are expected for
the remainder of the TAF period. At KBGM, ceilings will remain
MVFR after the showers pass and possibly drop into the alternate
required category through 13Z. At KITH, prevailing MVFR ceilings
are expected with occasional alternate required conditions through
13Z. At KELM, MVFR conditions are expected through 13Z. After 13Z
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites. A widespread strato
cumulus deck is expected with ceilings around 4k ft. Isolated
rain showers are also likely this afternoon across central New
York but not included in TAF due to limited areal coverage.

Winds shortly after sunrise increasing from the northwest at
10-15 knots with gusts around 20 knots. Winds overnight will
remain northwest at 10 knots with gusts on the hilltops.


Tuesday - Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday/Friday...MVFR possible in showers.




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