Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 250746
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
346 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will remain over the region early this
week. This will continue very warm mostly sunny days, and muggy
mild nights with valley fog. A cold front will pass through
Wednesday afternoon through evening with a chance of rain
showers. This front will usher in a much cooler yet more
seasonal air mass.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
345 AM Update...
Near-record warmth is expected in the near term period, because
of a Summerlike dome of high pressure persisting over the area
a couple more days.

High pressure has settled directly overhead, with stagnant air
stuck under the subsidence inversion. The weakening angle of the
late September sun can have a tough time fully mixing things
out when there is warm air aloft such as is currently the case.
Compared to prior nights, we went into last night with slightly
higher dewpoints, in the lower to mid 60s. As a result, valley
fog has formed yet again, but it is a bit thicker compared to
prior mornings.

After starting off in the lower 60s with fog burning off this
morning, another very warm day is expected with temperatures
reaching near daily records. On Sunday, Scranton (Avoca) reached
91 degrees to set a new record. As for today, the forecast is
for Scranton to reach 89 degrees which would tie a record set
way back in 1908. Syracuse should get around 91 degrees, which
would also tie a daily record high; this one set in 2007. As for
Binghamton, the daily record is 86 degrees also set in 2007;
and our forecast is for it to be eclipsed by a degree. Dewpoints
in the mid to upper 60s will send the heat index into upper
80s- lower 90s this afternoon; perhaps even close to 95 in the
greater Syracuse area. It will be important to stay well
hydrated when active outdoors such as school sports programs.

Some high thin clouds may try to get into the area tonight, but
probably not enough to prevent another muggy night with valley
fog in the usual places. If anything, not quite as thick as this
morning, and lows will be in the lower to mid 60s.

High pressure will stay in place, yet weaken slightly, on
Tuesday. Also, there may actually be a little more of a diurnal
cumulus field intermixing in with the sunshine. This may take
a couple or so degrees off of highs for Tuesday afternoon
compared with 24 hours prior; but with dewpoints primarily in
the upper 60s it will still be a very warm day with heat indices
of mid 80s to near 90. And regardless, still near daily records.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper level ridge will begin to subside across the Northeast
Tuesday night as a weak cold front slides in from the west
across the Great Lakes and Maria approaches nwd along the
Atlantic coast. Much of NY/PA will be situated between these
features and remain in a fairly warm unstable s/swly flow into
Wednesday. Will likely see temperatures into the 80s once again,
with dew points in the 60s making it feel quite humid for the
last week of September. The front moving in from the west will
be the main forcing mechanism for showers and possibly a few
storms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Around 100-200 J/kg of
ML CAPE and 30 kt of deep shear will combine with relatively
steep lapse rates and trigger scattered convection during this
time.

The main result of this front will be to kick Maria further to the
east away from the coast, and also to usher in a much cooler air
mass. The synoptic flow behind the front will remain cyclonic and
cool aloft...which will likely promote scattered to isolated rain
showers into Thursday. Temperatures will be more seasonal Thursday
as well with highs in the mid to upper 60s...close to 70. Dew points
in the upper 40s and lower 50s...and breezy n/nw winds will make it
feel more like Fall too.


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak ridging aloft Thursday night should keep weather
conditions quiet before the next s/w rotates sewd around the
base of a long wave trough over much of ern Canada and the
Northeast. This wave will bring additional chances for light
rain showers Friday and Saturday, but with minimal precipitation
expected as the air mass will be quite dry. The trough will
also have a re-enforcing shot of cool Canadian air with
it...which will adjust temperatures down even more. Highs on
Friday will be in the lower to mid 60s...and on Saturday in the
upper 50s and lower 60s. Overnight lows will drop into the lower
to mid 40s.

Conditions rebound a bit on Sunday as a ridge builds back in across
the region...along with a slightly warmer air mass. Temperatures
will rise back into the mid 60s for much of the area, with night
time lows in the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z Update...
High pressure is now directly overhead, with slightly higher
dewpoints compared to prior nights as stagnant air is stuck
under subsidence inversion. Valley fog development thus will be
a bit thicker, and indeed has already begun in some valleys
prior to 06Z. As is typical of late September, KELM will have
the most restrictive conditions, including airport minimums at
times towards dawn. KITH-KRME appear likely to take turns at
fuel alternate/IFR 09Z-12Z. KBGM should also briefly hit IFR
around sunrise as fog in surrounding valleys lifts to terminal
level. Restrictions will not be likely for KSYR and KAVP, but
will not be very far away from both terminals so watch for
amendments in case expectations change. Fog burns off between
13-14z, leaving entire area under mostly clear sky and VFR today
through this evening. Winds will remain light and variable with
speeds less than 5 knots.

Outlook...

Late Monday night through Tuesday night...VFR except for fog
possible late night/early morning, especially at KELM but for
other terminals as well at times.

Wednesday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...MDP



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