Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 221523
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1123 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND EVENTUALLY
END THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1115 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACRS NRN ZONES.
THESE SHOWERS ARE NEARLY STATIONARY AND THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL
WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTN. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO NY STATE AND WL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
THRU THE DAY. HOW FAR EAST THIS RIDGE WL BE ABLE TO BUILD WL
DETERMINE WHERE CONVECTION WL SET UP.

THE GRADIENT BTWN DRY AND MOIST AIR WL SET UP AN MLCAPE AXIS AND
STORMS HV A TENDENCY TO FIRE IN THIS GRADIENT. LATEST MODELS ARE
INDICATING THIS CAPE GRADIENT WL EXIST THIS AFTN ALONG THE I-81
CORRIDOR AND GRADUALLY RETROGRADING WEST OVR TIME AS RIDGE BUILDS
WEST FM NEW ENGLAND. ANY STORMS THAT CAN DVLP IN CNTRL SXNS OF NY
STATE TDA WL TEND NOT TO MV WITH TIME THUS LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. HV UPDATED HWO TO INCLUDE
POSSIBILITY FOR THIS THREAT. WL HOLD OFF ON ANY CHGS TO POP GRIDS
AS IT STILL LOOKS TO BE BEST FOR SCTD STORMS THIS AFTN.

PREV DISCOS BLO...

645 AM EDT UPDATE...
VALLEY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AND VISBYS ARE RANGING ON A
QUITE DIVERSE LEVEL FROM A QUARTER OF A MILE TO SEVEN MILES.
EXPECT FOG TO LIFT SHORTLY AFTER 13Z TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STARTS TO MIX WITH THE MORNING SUN. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS
THIS MORNING AS THEY ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN EXPECTED. PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS GOOD.

424 AM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING HAVE DWINDLED DOWN AND JUST
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LEFT OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING. VALLEY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN ITS WAKE AND HAVE BECOME
QUITE DENSE IN SELECT AREAS. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT BY 13Z ACROSS THE
AREA AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MORNING.

AND THE STORY CONTINUES... THE UPPR LVL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
SINK SOUTH THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN. THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
WASHED OUT IN THE FLOW ALOFT BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE PROMINENT UPPR
LVL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT EAST AND START TO AMPLIFY OVER THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER... THIS
AFTERNOON WE WILL REMAIN ON THE OUTER EDGE OF THIS RIDGE...
RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR
MULTIPLE VORTICITY MAXES TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.

MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AGAIN TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY WAS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DRYING. EXPECT
SBCAPE VALUES TO BE SIMILAR TODAY AS YESTERDAY. SBCAPE VALUES
RANGING AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF FORCING ALOFT...
INSTABILITY PRESENT... AND TOPOGRAPHIC INFLUENCES... SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP EARLY AFTERNOON AND BE SCATTERED LIKE IN
NATURE.

TODAY WILL BE MUGGY AND WARM DAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 60 PERCENT AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE UPPR 70S. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH AND PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THE
SFC HIGH AS IT PUSHES WEST. THE ACTIVITY WILL RETROGRADE WITH TIME
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND PUSHES FURTHER WEST. THUS...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
424 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND ANOTHER
VORTICITY MAX WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THE
RIDGE AND MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY DEPLETED OF MOISTURE AS THE SFC
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE CWA DRY AIR WILL
EXPAND OVER THE WHOLE CWA. IF SHOWERS DO DEVELOP THEY WILL DEVELOP
EARLY DURING THE DAY.

THE ROBUST UPPR LVL RIDGE FINALLY SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EAST ON SUNDAY
TO TYRANNIZE THE NORTHEAST. PARADISAICAL WEATHER WILL FINALLY
RETURN... AKA... NO RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPR 70S TO LOW 80S WITH
PARTY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING OUR WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COMBINED WITH SFC HIGH
PRES OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A PLEASANT STRETCH
OF LATE SUMMER WEATHER WITH MAXES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S. NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A SFC
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DENSE FOG AT KBGM/KELM/KSYR WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 13-14Z.
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KRME/KITH UNTIL 13Z. BY 14Z
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH CIGS AROUND 4K FT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON,
INCLUDED A FOUR HOUR TEMPO GROUP AT EACH TERMINAL FOR MVFR
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS GENERALLY BETWEEN 18Z-22Z. OVERNIGHT MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DUE TO MIST AND LINGERING LOW CIGS AT KELM
DENSE FOG LIKELY AFTER 06Z.

VARIABLE WINDS 3-5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SAT THROUGH TUE...VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN EARLY
MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/PVN
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DJP/RRM
AVIATION...RRM





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