Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 261745
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1245 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
BRING DRY MILD WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLDER WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 11 AM... LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWING CLOUDS STEADILY
DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING WITH ONLY THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY TO SYRACUSE AREA REMAINING CLOUDY AS OF 11 AM. WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECT THIS OVERALL CLEARING TREND TO
CONTINUE WITH ALL AREAS SEEING A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON. 12Z BUF SOUNDING SHOWING A PRONOUNCED INVERSION JUST
ABOVE 900 MB WITH MIXING FROM THE BASE OF THE INVERSION SUPPORTING
HIGHS 40 TO 45 THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

130 AM UPDATE...

AN LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER GEORGIA EXTENDS NNE
INTO OUR AREA. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION IS STILL
DOGGING THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE FAR
SOUTH WITH CLEAR SKIES. THIS MORNING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS ONEIDA
COUNTY WILL CONTINUE WITH ALIGNED WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. NOT
COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT COMBINED WITH
OROGRAPHIC LIFT INTO THE TUG FOR SHOWERS. EITHER WAY WILL NOT ADD
UP TO MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES.

CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE INVERSION
LOWERING TO BELOW 3K FT AND THE LOW LEVEL SHIFTING TO SW AWAY FROM
THE LAKES. KEPT THE TREND OF SKIES BEING MOSTLY SUNNY SOUTH AND
PARTLY SUNNY REST FOR THIS AFTN. WITH 850 TEMPS NEAR 0C SFC MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...

DRY MILD WEATHER TONIGHT TO SATURDAY THEN A COLD FRONT SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH SW MILD FLOW. LOWS FRI NGT COLDER THAN NOW BUT STILL MILD IN
THE U20S TO M30S. SATURDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE MOSTLY MID AND UPPER
40S FOR MAXES BUT POSSIBLY A FEW 50S. SNOW IS GONE NOW AND GROUND
WILL BE DRYING TODAY AND SAT. TREND HAS BEEN UP WITH WARMER TEMPS
FORECASTED FOR SATURDAY EACH OF THE LAST FEW DAYS.

LATE SATURDAY CLOUDS COME IN FROM THE WEST. SCHC POPS IN NRN
ONEIDA WITH UPSLOPE FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. BETTER MOISTURE AND
LIFT AHEAD OF AND WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE SAT NGT AND SUN
MORNING. ALL MODELS HAVE SOME RAIN FOR ENTIRE CWA. WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE UNDER
HALF AN INCH. THE FRONT GOES THROUGH QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING. A
WAVE MOVES NE ALONG THE FRONT KEEPING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN NE
PA SUNDAY NIGHT.

IN THE FAR NORTH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS
TO 300 DEGREES. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -10C LATE SUN NGT SO LAKE
EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE. MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW WITH THE INVERSION
AT 5K FT. CONTINUING WITH THE OLD FORECAST AND THOSE AROUND ME OF
A DRY FORECAST SUN NGT INTO MONDAY...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO ADJUSTED.
IF THE WAVE SUNDAY SLOWS THE COLD FRONT THE LL FLOW WILL TAKE
LONGER TO SHIFT AND KEEP THE NORTH DRY LONGER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

PD SHOWS A GRADUAL RETURN TO MORE WINTER LIKE WX INCLUDING COLDER
AIR BUT WITHOUT A MAJOR STORMS SYSTEM. LARGE SCALE PTRN SHOWS A
DVLPG BROAD UPR TROF OVER ERN CANADA AND THE ERN US WITH A LRG
1052MB POLAR SFC HIGH OVER THE WRN PLAINS OF CANADA. AS THIS HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE CNTRL US BY THE NEW YEAR...VARIOUS WEAK WVS IN THE
NW FLOW OVER THE LAKES SWEEP THRU THE AREA. EVENTUALLY...SOME LE
SNOWS SEEM LIKELY TO DVLP BUT MORE WLY LL FLOW SHD KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE AREA. XPCT THE MAJORITY OF
THE FCST AREA TO REMAIN DRY THRU THE PD...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR PLUNGES SWRD INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND MIDWEST. SOME OCNL LE PSBL...BUT MAINLY OVER THE XTRM
NRN CWA.

FOR THE FCST FLWD THE HP GUID CLOSELY BUT DID MODIFY A BIT IN SOME
PDS TWRDS THE MEX GUID IF IT HELPED COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SC DECK HAS BURNED OFF AT ALL SITES XCPT RME WHERE THERE/S ENUF OF
A WLY FLOW TO BRING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. PLENTY OF
EVIDENCE FORM CNRTS AND FCSTS THAT A SLY FLOW THERE WILL BRING
THEM TO SCT CONDS AS WELL THIS AFTN. AFTER THAT...PRETTY MUCH SCT
OR CLR CONDS AS RDGG BLDS IN FROM THE SOUTH TNGT AND SAT. HI
RESMODLES SUGGEST THAT SOME VFR CLDS COULD DVLP LATE TNGT AT
RME...BUT OTRW XPCT NO CIGS. WLY SFC FLOW ATTM WILL BECOME MORE
SLY AND LGT OVRNGT...AND REMAIN SO THRU THE END OF THE PD.

OUTLOOK...

LATE SAT NGT-SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF RAIN-SNOW
SHOWERS.

SUN NGT-MON...MAINLY VFR.

TUE/WED...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FOR KSYR AND
KRME DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM





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