Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 211133

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
633 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

After a partly sunny and mild day, a front will bring some light
rain showers tonight. Clouds will linger into Wednesday, but
temperatures will remain well above normal into the weekend. The
chance of rain will increase Friday into Saturday as a moist
system moves into the region.


High pressure slides east and allows a southwest flow of mild air
to return haead of the next wave and frontal system. Models show
the surface trof and upper wave banging into the building hiegts
over the forecast area. This results in a weakening area of
precipitation as the upper support washes out over the mean ridge
position. Best chance of rain will be over the northern forecast
area nearer whats left of the upper wave. Temperatures overnight
drop to near freezing over the weatern Catskills...but no real
threat of ice at this time.

No real temperature difference behind the trof...and upper temps
may actually rise on Wednesday. Dirty ridge builds in on Wednesday
with some leftover moisture so clouds and perhaps even a light
shower over north...may linger.


315 pm update... Dissipating surface boundary, associated with
the Pacific-origin system mentioned in the above section, could
still produce a fair amount of cloudiness on Wednesday and perhaps
a few light showers. However, there is model disagreement on
this, and even in the most pessimistic scenarios, most of the day
will be rain-free. Temperatures will remain quite mild, with much
of CNY/NEPA into the 50s.

Wednesday night and Thursday should remain very mild, despite the
approach of another surface boundary from the northwest. A
somewhat better chance of showers could reach our lake plain,
southern Tug Hill, and Mohawk Valley zones by later in the day
Thursday. For the rest of the area, it will be primarily rain-
free, under partly-mostly cloudy skies.

Our NEPA zones could well reach the 60s Thursday afternoon,
especially valley locales.


A weak frontal system or boundary will be draped across our
northern forecast area on Thursday, while very warm air ahead of
an Ontario cyclone pushes into NY/PA. 925mb temperatures are
shockingly warm by Thursday afternoon, with the +13C line forecast
to reach the NY/PA border. That should easily yield temperatures
in the 60s on Thursday.

A stronger upper level storm system will push toward Lake Ontario
on Saturday. Showers will increase Friday night into Saturday, and
a slight chance of thunder is not out of the question given the
mild surface air and cooler air aloft.

The trailing cold front will bring the reality of late-February
climatic norms back to our forecast area. Rain showers will
change over to snow showers late Saturday night. Temperatures will
struggle through the 30s on Sunday and Monday, with some lower-40s
possible across our southern counties. Lake effect snow showers
are forecast east of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie.



VFR conditions will continue for much of the TAF period. A front
will approach after 00Z bringing mvfr ceilings and visibilities in
rain showers through 06Z. The remainder of the TAF period will
feature MVFR ceilings as moisture remains trapped beneath the
inversion. Light winds this morning will become around 10 knots
out of the west ahead of front today and this evening.


Wednesday...MVFR Post-frontal ceilings into early Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Thursday night...VFR except for possible
spotty rain showers and associated brief restrictions Thursday.

Friday through Saturday...Restrictions from rainy frontal system.




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