Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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476
FXUS61 KBGM 012351
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
751 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF WEAK STORMS ROTATING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
715 PM UPDATE...THE AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY PROGGED TO TRACK NE
TOWARD PA BY MORNING. FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT, NOT EXPECTING
MUCH...JUST A FEW LIGHT SPOTTY SHOWERS WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE.
LATE TONIGHT, TOWARD 12Z, NEXT BATCH OF HEAVIER AND STEADIER RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH S/W ALOFT
AND APPROACHING SFC LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BUDGE TOO MUCH
TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND WAA PATTERN WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
305 PM UPDATE...
A POTENT WAVE WILL PASS OVER NY/PA EARLY MONDAY, BRINGING A QUICK SHOT
OF MODERATE RAINS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF OUR
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OUR
VICINITY. THOUGH RAINS WILL TAPER OFF, WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE OVER NY AND PA FROM TIME TO TIME.

A MEAN TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH
ANOTHER WAVE DIPPING OUT OF ONTARIO ACROSS NY/PA EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, AS COOLER AIR
KEEPS TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE IN RESPECT TO THE
XPCTD CLSD LOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE
OH VLY THU DVLPS INTO A CLSD LOW WHICH DRFTS TO THE NC CST BY FRI
MRNG. THIS WILL KEEP SHWRS AND COOL AIR OVER THE AREA THRU THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BY SAT MRNG...UPR LOW AS DRFTD INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC...PERHAPS AS A RESPONSE TO THE WV PUSHING INTO THE WRN
LAKES. THIS ALLOWS FOR A BIT OF WEAK RDGG OVER THE FCST AREA AND
IMPROVING WX. WITH THE CORE OF THE UPR LOW MVG SOUTH OF THE
AREA...HAVE LWRD POPS A BIT AND INCRSD TEMPS AS THE COOLER AIR SHD
NOT BE OVHD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RATHER STAGNANT...COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
CONTINUE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR IFR WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING IN RAIN/DRIZZLE
AND FOG. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PASSAGE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE.

WINDS ESE-SSW 5-10 KTS THIS EVENING BECOMING LGT/VRBL. WINDS
BECOMING NW-N 5-10 KTS AFT 18Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...MVFR DUE TO CLD DECKS.

TUE...VFR.

WED-THU...SHWRS MAY BRING OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

FRI...VFR

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/PCF
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...JAB



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