Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 271859
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
259 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL AND ALSO
KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY,
WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WE
MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

300 PM UPDATE...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT WITH SFC HIGH STARTING TO PUSH INTO
THE REGION KEEPING THE WEST NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION AND
COOLER TEMPS AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. MODELS SHOW THE SFC RIDGE
MOVING OVER THE REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY. MODELS ALSO SHOW PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA WITH 80+
RH AT THE 925-850 MB LAYER...THINK THAT MORE CLOUDS THAN PREVIOUS
THINKING WILL STICK AROUND EVEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND DIURNAL
EFFECT. SCT TO BKN FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE LIKELY WITH LESSER
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY
NE PA. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WHERE CLOUDS BREAK...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE GRIDS.

SFC HIGH IN CONTROL FRIDAY WITH LESSER CLOUD COVER THAN THE LAST
FEW DAYS...EXPECTING SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME BREAKS ALLOWING FOR SOME GLIMPSES OF SUN
THROUGH THE DAY...MORE SUNSHINE OVER NE PA. TEMPS WILL WARM BACK
TOWARDS SEASONAL LEVELS. CLOUDS CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES LIKELY. STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT ALLOWS FOR HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE OVER THE AREA STARTS TO WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR
SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM MIDWEST. HOWEVER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80.

AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AND THE TROUGH DRAWS NEARER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WE DO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM DUE TO W/SW
LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH INCREASING LEVELS OF HUMIDITY. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND EVOLUTION OF 500 MB TROUGH WHICH WILL
BE OVER THE MIDWEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS/GEM HAS
A WEAKER TROUGH AND SUPPRESSES IT TO THE SOUTH UNDER UPPER UPPER RIDGE
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE 0Z ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH
THIS FEATURE AND ALLOWS IT TO BE THE MORE DOMINANT FEATURE
AFFECTING OUR WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE ESSENTIALLY
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE IN MODEL CAMPS BY UTILIZING MODEL BLEND
PROCEDURE (SUPERBLEND) FOR LONG RANGE FORECAST. THE UPSHOT FOR
GRIDDED FORECAST IS THAT EACH DAY HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS DEPICTED DUE MAINLY TO DIURNAL EFFECTS PEAKING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF ECMWF SOLUTION ENDS UP VERIFYING
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENT
THINKING WHILE IF RIDGE REMAINS DOMINANT CONDITIONS STAY DRY.
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE
60S.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE SITES WITH THE ONLY MVFR
CONDITIONS AROUND KRME...ALL DUE TO CIGS RUNNING FROM 2.5 TO 4.5
KFT. LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...SOME LESSENING
IN THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...TRICKY FORECAST THOUGH AS OBS AND
SAT WOULD SUGGEST BKN SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT IF NOT
ALL...MODEL AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT AS MUCH. HAVE HALVED THE
DIFFERENCE FOR NOW WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG IN KELM AREA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS WITH DIURNAL CU AFTER 16Z...MAY CREATE CIGS AROUND 3.5 TO
5KFT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. GENERALLY VFR WITH
LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING WITH
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM AS USUAL. SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...BUT RESTRICTIONS NOT WIDESPREAD OR BRIEF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABS
NEAR TERM...ABS
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...ABS


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