


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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243 FXUS63 KBIS 151801 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 101 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Medium to high chances for showers and storms will continue through late Wednesday. - Well below normal temperatures Tuesday through Thursday, with near-record cold highs in the 60s Tuesday and Wednesday. - Dry Thursday, then more chances for showers and storms through the end of the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 With the high pressure moving into northern North Dakota, the showers are mainly just along and south of the Interstate. More showers in a few hours will move into the southwest from Montana ahead of another shortwave. UPDATE Issued at 945 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Widespread showers continue across the southwest and central parts of North Dakota. The thunder chances have now diminished to mainly south of the Interstate through the rest of the day. Updated the PoP forecast, and the latest observations have been blended in. UPDATE Issued at 650 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Widespread showers and a few rumbles of thunder are found across northwestern and north central North Dakota this morning. Further south, more isolated to scattered showers can instead be found. Showers are anticipated to generally build in across the south through the late morning and early afternoon period. Otherwise this morning, temperatures are generally from the upper 50s north to the mid to upper 60s south. Northwest winds are breezy, with sustained speeds up to 15 MPH and gusts up to 25 MPH, though areas under the heaviest showers have been known to gusts as high as 30-35 MPH. Have tweaked PoPs and cloud cover with this update to account for the latest trends, but otherwise the forecast remains on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Near zonal flow is found aloft over the northern Plains this morning, though is expected to become increasingly southwesterly through the late morning and afternoon as a series of depending shortwaves move eastward. A quasi-stational front lingers across south central North Dakota this morning, promoting on-going showers and a few thunderstorms across this area. This front is expected to continue to be pushed further south through this morning, potentially exiting to the south of the forecast area as a cold front by the early afternoon. Showers and embedded thunderstorms have also developed across much of northwestern and north central North Dakota, with medium to high chances (45 to 85 percent) spreading widely across the forecast area through the afternoon. Severe weather is generally not expected today, though a stronger storm or two capable of producing small hail is not impossible in the far southern James River Valley as the aforementioned front exits to the south. On the backside of this cold front temperatures today are much cooler than the day before, with high temperatures forecast broadly in the 60s and 70s this afternoon. Moderate CAA across the forecast area and a tight W-E orientated pressure gradient will help keep northwesterly winds breezy through much of the day today, with sustained gusts up to 20 MPH and gusts up to around 30 MPH. With high pressure starting to build into the region out of the southern Canadian Prairies this evening and overnight, chances for showers and thunderstorms will start to diminish across eastern and central North Dakota overnight into Wednesday. Medium to high chances (40 to 70 percent) will linger across western North Dakota as low pressure system associated with a moderately upper level trough cuts across Wyoming and western South Dakota. These chances are expected to expand to include south central North Dakota as showers and storms develop along an surface trough trailing behind the aforementioned low pressure system. With the ongoing showers expected in the southwest and the cooler airmass over the forecast area, high temperatures on Wednesday are expected to be unseasonably cooler, broadly in the 60s though portions of the southwest may struggle to break through the upper 50s. With high pressure settling over the northern Plains through Wednesday afternoon, all showers and storms are expected to move off to the south by late afternoon, early evening period. When it`s all said and done, additional rainfall totals approaching another 0.5 inch are possible, with the best chances (30 to 50 percent) found south of Highway 2. In the southwest, where showers are expected to linger throughout the whole period, there is a small chance that additional rainfall totals could exceed 1 inch overall (~30 percent chance). A transient upper level ridge17 is then expected to build in behind the upper level trough on Thursday, helping keep conditions dry across the forecast area and kick starting a warming trend that will continue through the end of the week, with highs broadly back into the 70s Thursday afternoon. A return to near zonal flow is then favored by the ensemble, sustaining the warming trend while reintroducing off and on chances for showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week. With another positively tilted upper level trough progged to cut across the southern Canadian Prairies Thursday night through Friday, medium to high chances (40 to 70 percent) for showers and storms are expected. With this pattern, there is a non-zero chance for some stronger to severe storms to develop, though any details about potential timing and hazards is hazy this far out. The CSU machine learning algorithm does paint a low potential for severe weather across the southwest on Wednesday. On the backside of this trough, generally zonal to northwesterly flow is expected to develop as a transient upper level ridge slides across the northern Plains, drying conditions out somewhat for Saturday. The ensemble then diverges somewhat at this point, with the majority of members (~80 percent) favoring a much more quickly moving ridge, subjecting the forecast the southwesterly flow Saturday night through Sunday, and according an uptick in precipitation chances (30 to 50 percent) broadly across the area. CSU machine learning lightly paint southwestern North Dakota again on Sunday with a low potential for severe weather, which would be associated with this pattern. This solution is the cooler of the two, with high temperatures peaking into the 80s by Sunday. A minor cluster also exists (~20 percent), which instead favors a much more slowly moving upper level ridge, which would help limit PoP chances on Sunday and the limit the potential for severe weather even further. Additionally, this pattern would also promote the warmest temperatures across the forecast area, with highs peaking in the 90s. The ensemble gets increasing discordant beyond this point, though a general agreement a slight cooling trends through the early portions of next week is evident. The CPC 6 to 10 day outlook reflects this, with near normal to slightly below normal temperatures anticipated for July 20th through the 24th. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 IFR to VFR through tonight. Lower CIGs with the rain showers. CIGs should lift from north to south. Breezy through most of the period with northerly winds around 20kts. Winds will switch to the northeast Wednesday afternoon. Rain showers will stay in the south for the most part this afternoon and evening. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Smith DISCUSSION...Adam AVIATION...Smith