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000
FXUS63 KBIS 100603
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1203 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM 05-06 UTC...HAVE EXPIRED THE
BLIZZARD WARNING AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW
WHICH WERE IN EFFECT. WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW
AND SLICK ROADS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

CLIPPER NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. PRESSURE RISES HAVE
DECREASED OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...BUT
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ROBUST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EAST INTO
THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION INDICATED...SCALED
BACK ON WINTER WEATHER AND BLIZZARD HEADLINES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
DECREASING WINDS AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS. WINDS REMAIN STRONG
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE RECENT
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 41 MPH AT SAND CREEK RAWS AND 37 MPH AT HETTINGER
HAVE BEEN REPORTED. REPORTED GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH HAVE BEEN COMMON
SOUTH CENTRAL.

WITH THE ABOVE TREND...SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE REMAINDER OF
THE BLIZZARD AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT 06Z OR BEFORE.

EXPANDED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO COVER THE ENTIRE NORTH CENTRAL
TONIGHT WITH REPORTED WIND CHILLS NEAR 30 BELOW AT THE MINOT AFB
AND AROUND 25 BELOW ACROSS BURKE AND MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES.

CAA OCCURRING NOW WILL BE REPLACED WITH WAA OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ALREADY OVER
SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. THE COMBINATION OF WAA AND INCREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES 06-12Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

WILL TRIM OFF SOME COUNTIES FROM THE BLIZZARD AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WITH WINDS DECREASING AND CONDITIONS IMPROVING. OFFICIALS
AT DICKINSON STILL INDICATE ADVERSE CONDITIONS SO WILL CONTINUE
THE BLIZZARD THERE AND POINTS SOUTH. HAVE TRIMMED OFF THE ENTIRE
NORTH CENTRAL FROM THE WINTER WEATHER ADV.

UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY. MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 740 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

HAVE ALREADY VERIFIED THE MAJORITY OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING AREA
WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES HAVING BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF NORTH DAKOTA THE PAST 3-4 HOURS NOW VIA LOCAL
MEDIA...SOCIAL MEDIA...AND AREA EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. NO CHANGES TO
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. WE CONSIDERED ADDING MORTON COUNTY TO THE
BLIZZARD WARNING...BUT AS OF THIS WRITING THE ONLY REPORTS THAT
WOULD QUALIFY AS A BLIZZARD WERE OVER THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTY SO OPTED NOT TO WARN SUCH A SMALL AREA WHEN THE MAJORITY OF
THE COUNTY IS BEST SUITED WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLOWING SNOW.

MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE WAS MAINLY TO ADJUST
WEATHER ELEMENTS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM
MODEL TRENDS.

CLIPPER QUICKLY MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA NOW...WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STRONGEST
WINDS...WITH GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH AT TIMES...HAVE BEEN POSITIONED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST. STRONG WINDS ELSEWHERE
BUT WILL BELOW BLIZZARD CRITERIA. IT IS SAFE TO SAY THE DAY CREW
NAILED THIS ONE.

TEMPERATURES WARMED UP NICELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL EARLIER IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CLIPPER. STRONG CAA THE
PAST FEW HOURS NORTH HAS SEEN TEMPERATURES THERE DROPPING SINCE
00Z. WHILE I KEPT MIN LOWS ABOUT THE SAME...DID ADJUST THE HOURLY
TREND TO BETTER MATCH LATEST OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

BLIZZARD WARNING SOUTHWEST BEGINS AT 3 PM CST. NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD AREA OF SUPER SATURATION W/R TO ICE FROM
NEAR THE SURFACE TO 700 MB ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ND. ALREADY SEEING
1/4 MILE IN HEAVY SNOW WITHOUT TOO MUCH WIND WIND AT BAKER
MONTANA WITH 1/2 MILE IN SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL LAY DOWN AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN RATHER
EFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCING CONDITIONS. THEN EXPECT 35 TO 45 MPH WINDS
TO PUNCH THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE BETWEEN 4 AND 6
PM CST. EXPECT 3 TO 5 HOURS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. LESSER SNOW RATES AND WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTH. SO KEPT THE ADVISORY THERE. FINALLY...ITS STILL LOOKS LIKE
SOME WIND CHILLS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC BETWEEN -25 AND 30 FROM THE
NORTH CENTRAL TO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ADDED ANOTHER
WIND CHILL ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 9 PM CST THROUGH NOON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

A PROGRESSIVE BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
A MEANDERING BAROCLINIC ZONE/ALTERNATING WARM AIR AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES INTERACTING WITH THIS BOUNDARY
WILL CREATE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED...THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HAVE SOURED OUT THE COLD AIR WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. UNTIL THEN...EXPECTING SOME MENTION
OF LIGHT SNOW JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES TO 35 BELOW.  AFTER WEDNESDAY...NOT
EXPECTING ANY FURTHER WIND CHILL CRITERIA BEING MET.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...DRY AND VERY COLD TUESDAY NIGHT AS
A 1039MB SURFACE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WILL BE THE MAIN THEME DURING
THIS TIME. AN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SLIDE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. HAVE A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE NORTH AND
EAST CENTRAL DURING THIS TIME. AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH AROUND
A HALF INCH IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES EXIT
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 06Z THURSDAY.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THIS TIME PERIOD WILL FEATURE PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENS UP SEVERAL TIMES. NEW
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM
1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE POSITIVE
NEWS IS THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION EVENTUALLY SCOURS OUT THE COLD AIR
BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING BETWEEN 25 AND 35 ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

ISOLATED MVFR STRATUS DECKS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL YIELD IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AT KDIK AND
KISN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR NDZ003>005-
011>013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR NDZ002-010.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD