015
FXUS63 KBIS 160305
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1005 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of light showers will continue across parts of western
  and south central North Dakota through Wednesday afternoon.

- Well below average temperatures through Thursday, with near-
  record cold highs in the 60s on Wednesday.

- Dry Wednesday night and Thursday, then medium chances for
  showers and thunderstorms Thursday night through Friday, and
  again late Saturday through Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Forecast adjustments for this update were mainly to incorporate
observed and recent model trends for showers and sky cover. The
drier air advecting in from the northeast has had a greater
impact than expected, with a majority of north central North
Dakota temporarily under a mostly clear sky. Do expect clouds to
fill back in from the south and west through the night. The dry
air also extinguished light showers trying to spread across
southwest and south central North Dakota earlier this evening.
But the stronger forcing soon arriving from Montana should
sustain showers into western and eventually south central North
Dakota later tonight into Wednesday morning. Did add a low
probability of thunder to southwest North Dakota later tonight
given upstream trends, but instability greatly diminishes on
this side of the Montana border.

UPDATE Issued at 710 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

A few lingering showers associated with the initial shortwave will
soon be exiting the southern James River Valley to the east. Central
parts of the state are experiencing a dry period ahead of the next
batch of light showers expanding eastward from Montana. Recent model
guidance shows these showers dissipating this evening ahead of a
stronger shortwave that should bring more widespread and persistent
showers into parts of western and central North Dakota late
tonight into Wednesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Currently a small shortwave trough is sitting in central North
Dakota, with showers and a few thunderstorms on its southern and
eastern cyclonic flow sides. A slight surface high in the
northern part of the state is keeping the majority of the
showers in the south. These showers are mostly staying south of
the Interstate. Another shortwave trough and low is moving
moving east through western Montana. On the positive vorticity
advection side of that trough more showers have formed in
eastern Montana and should move into North Dakota through
tonight and Wednesday morning.

With these troughs, cooler air continues to move on through.
Wednesday`s highs could break cold high temperature records in
the southwest and possibly around the Jamestown area.
Dickinson`s cold high is 65 degrees from 1962, and Jamestown`s
is 67 from 1937. The current NBM forecast for these sites are 62
and 66 respectfully.

A third small shortwave will move through from Canada Thursday,
while a low pressure sits in Wyoming. The machine learning
severe probabilities have a level 1 risk for the southwest.
Looks like this could be another late evening to overnight
threat. CAPE and shear from the big 3 models keep it in Montana
and South Dakota. So we will have to continue watching the
trends for that. Thursday will begin our warming trend as the
flow is more zonal. Highs will reach into the 70s. Although we
may not get severe storms, showers and thunderstorms are likely
through the night northwest and central, with a chance
elsewhere. As the wave progresses through the state, so does the
chances of showers and thunderstorms through Friday.

Temperatures will also increase through Saturday as the zonal
flow continues with little embedded waves producing on and off
showers. Sunday and Monday will be the warmest days of the
forecast, as a short ridge brings warmer temperatures through.
As of now, we are looking at highs in the 80s with chances of
more showers and thunderstorms. Machine learning is hitting a
few of these days for possible severe weather, but those are
greater than 4 days out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1005 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Low ceilings across southern North Dakota are expected to lift to
VFR levels late this evening through tonight, although areas
southwest of KDIK could remain at MVFR/IFR until Wednesday
afternoon. Chances for light rain showers also remain in the
forecast through Wednesday morning, primarily south of KXWA and
KMOT. The highest chances are in southwest North Dakota later
tonight into Wednesday morning. Most locations will see
northeast winds around 10-15 kts through the forecast period,
with more of an easterly direction in northwest parts of the
state.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Hollan