Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 091817

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1217 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Issued at 1218 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

For much of western and central ND wind chills have risen above the
advisory criteria. However, some areas may remain near or within
advisory criteria. Since we do expect another wind chill advisory
for tonight...will have the current wind chill advisory end at noon
CST. Otherwise, only mentions of flurries around and south/east of
lake Sakakawea with some lake effect clouds/flurries. Adjusted
afternoon highs a tad based on latest iterations of high res models.
Looking at highs mainly from zero to 5 below most areas of western
and central ND...with highs 5 to 10 below in the north central.

UPDATE Issued at 926 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Wind chills continue in the 25 to 35 below range this morning
across much of central and western ND. The exception is downstream
of Lake Sakakawea where lake effect clouds and maybe a few
flurries are keeping temperatures a little warmer. Also in areas
of the southwest where areas of fog have developed. Previous
forecast added a mention of fog. Will extend this a couple of
hours, through 18 UTC. No changes to the current wind chill
advisory. Updated text products out shortly.

UPDATE Issued at 640 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Frigid temperatures and dangerous wind chills are in place across
western and central North Dakota this morning. This supports the
current wind chill advisory, and have left it in place through
the morning.

A few observation sites in the southwest have reported reduced
visibility in fog. The fog can also be seen on some area webcams,
so added that into the forecast for a few hours this morning.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 254 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Surface analysis early this morning places high pressure across
the state. This has brought light winds to western and central
North Dakota along with frigid temperatures. The tricky part has
been clouds which continue to move in and out of areas this
morning. Any clearing allows temperatures to fall quickly, while
spots under the clouds are not quite as cold. This has impacted
wind chills, with some locations easily hitting criteria, while
some spots have not. Due to the transient nature of the clouds,
temperatures could easily fall more this morning, so plan to keep
the entire advisory in place.

Temperatures will struggle to recover today with many areas
remaining below zero for highs. It will be cold again tonight, and
clouds will likely again play a role in how quickly temperatures
drop. Wind chills could again approach advisory levels, but will
take the headlines one at a time and defer to later shifts.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 212 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

The wave will bring increasing chances for snow Saturday which
linger into Sunday. After collaboration with surrounding offices,
opted to boost the model blended pops a little to show an area of
likely pops moving across the state from west to east. This
appears to be a high pop, but lower qpf type event. Have generally
gone with snowfall totals in the 1 to 3 inch range.

Frigid temperatures look to be the main story next week with small
snow chances from time to time.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Snow and reduced visibilities are expected during the 18Z TAFs.
Chances for snow will spread eastward across ND, impacting KISN and
KDIK by 12Z. Late in the period, through the 17Z hour, chances for
snow are forecast to move into KBIS/KMOT/KJMS.

VFR and MVFR conditions are primarily expected, though IFR ceilings
and visibilities are possible as snow showers move through the TAF




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