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000
FXUS63 KBIS 170249
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
949 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

PRECIP STARTING TO SHOW UP NOW ON RADAR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
NEW NAM SUGGESTS INITIAL SURGE WILL BE LIGHT AND STREAM SOUTHEAST
QUICKLY. THEN BETTER AREA FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL ON MONDAY MORNING WITH COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY LOW
FORMATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT SUN MAR
16 2014

GOOD MIXING AND LACK OF SNOW COVER HAS ALLOWED HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO EXCEED 60 ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WARM
FRONT IS SLOW TO ARRIVE CENTRAL SECTIONS AND PLACES LIKE BISMARCK
AND LINTON TO RUGBY ARE COOLER THAN FORECAST TODAY. AS THE WARM FRONT
OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MOVES EAST THIS EVENING TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO THIS EVENING CENTRAL.
INITIALIZED CLOUDS TO VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA AND TRENDED THEM INTO
THE EVENING. DELAYED THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AN HOUR OR SO
NORTHWEST BUT FAST MOVING MID LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING SOME RADAR
RETURNS TO NORTHEAST MONTANA QUICKLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING THE PRECIP TYPES
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PROGGED TO AFFECT THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST WHERE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT AND
TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW 50S OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NOSES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HOLD STEADY OR FALL A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT.

PRECIPITATION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA IN THE JAMES RIVER BASIN BY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO BE QUITE WARM...WITH PRECIPITATION FALLING AS
RAIN. HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AROUND SUNRISE
MONDAY. FREEZING RAIN NORTHEAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER COULD CAUSE
TRAVEL PROBLEMS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. FORECAST ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 1/10 OF AN INCH SO WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE
SPS/HWO.

BY MID MONDAY MORNING...SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE
FREEZING WITH RAIN BECOMING THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP AGAIN
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE RAIN
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY DAYTIME. FOLLOWED A BLEND
OF THE 12Z GFS...00Z/12Z ECMWF...AND INHERITED FORECAST.

AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE GATHERS STRENGTH MONDAY AS IT
MOVES/DEVELOPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. MILD TEMPERATURES
FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ONGOING MONDAY EVENING IN THE 40S
ACROSS MY SOUTHERN ONE HALF. THUS EXPECT ALL RAIN SOUTH BUT SNOW
OR TRANSITIONING TO SNOW NORTH AT THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED. COLD
AIR WILL CONTINUE SOUTH INTO THE LOW MONDAY NIGHT AS IT PUSHES
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...TURNING THE PRECIP TYPE TO ALL
SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY LATE EVENING MONDAY. REMOVED THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION SOUTH AS I NO LONGER EXPECT THE SFC TEMPERATURES
HERE TO COOL TO BELOW FREEZING BEFORE THE SUBZERO TEMPS ALOFT MOVE
OVERHEAD. SNOW CHANCES WILL WIND DOWN ON TUESDAY.

MODELS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF. THE 12Z EC TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH THAN EITHER. PUT LESS
WEIGHT ON THIS RUN FOR NOW AND KEPT POPS SIMILAR TO THE 12Z
GFS/00Z EC.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT IT APPEARS
THESE WILL BE TEMPERED DOWN MANY AREAS DUE TO THE FACT THAT A GOOD
DEAL OF THE QPF WILL FALL AS RAIN. STILL...UP TO THREE INCHES OF
WET SNOW POSSIBLE SOME LOCATIONS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
CLOSELY AND SEE HOW THE FUTURE 00Z AND 12Z RUNS TREND OVER THE
NEXT 18-20 HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SNOW POTENTIAL IN
THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

BEYOND TUESDAY...PERIODIC WAVES WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE AREA...WITH PERHAPS A MORE NOTABLE S/WV TROUGH ON
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TUE & WED...MODERATE
THURS AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH...THEN TREND COOLER
AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY PULLING IN COLDER AIR SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

TECHNICIANS CURRENTLY WORKING ON A COMMS ISSUE FOR KMOT.

FOR THE FORECAST...SEVERAL HAZARDS TO AVIATION THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. A WINTRY MIX OF INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW
WILL FOLLOW A PERIOD OF RAIN BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. KISN-KMOT LOOKS POSITIONED FOR THE BEST
CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY WHEN PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN.
KDIK-KBIS-KJMS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE RAIN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP FROM KISN-KMOT-KBIS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

NOTE...ICE IS AFFECTING MANY CREEKS AND RIVERS AND UNTIL THAT ICE
CLEARS...SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS IN WATER LEVELS ARE LIKELY.

FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS...IN THE MISSOURI
RIVER BASIN...

THE MISSOURI RIVER NEAR WILLISTON AFFECTING WILLIAMS AND MCKENZIE
COUNTIES. MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
UNTIL THE RIVER NEAR WILLISTON BECOMES FREE OF ICE.

IN THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN...

SOURIS RIVER NEAR TOWNER AFFECTING MCHENRY COUNTY. MINOR FLOODING
IS FORECAST BY LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...TM/AJS