Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 230820
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
320 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

DAMP AND MUGGY THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG AROUND. THE WEAK
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR NEW ORLEANS WILL AGAIN PROVIDE FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. COVERAGE SHOULD BE A
LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 86 TO 91 RANGE.

A BOUNDARY IS BROUGHT DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE DAY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
THROUGH. THIS FRONT WILL GET HUNG UP TEMPORARILY IN SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR PLACES LIKE TROY AND EUFAULA. OTHERWISE...DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE IN THE 90S EVERYWHERE AS THE
BULGING RIDGE OUT WEST NUDGES EASTWARD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE AS EARLY AS MONDAY
MORNING WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. GFS GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK WAY TOO HIGH GIVEN THE AIRMASS
SO COMPLETELY DISREGARDED THE MEX NUMBERS. THE 23/00Z EURO MOS
LOOKS MORE REASONABLE.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WILL KEEP FORECAST CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/BR DEVELOPING WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.
THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW HAS PUSHED A BIT FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA WAS GENERALLY CLEAR. INCREASED THE FOG RESTRICTIONS SOUTH
TO AROUND 1 MILE AT TIMES BECOMING A LOW CLOUD DECK. IT APPEARS
THERE WILL STILL BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT ACTING ON COPIOUS MOISTURE IN
THE BOUNDARY TO ALLOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE A BIT LESSER COVERAGE TOMORROW...BUT
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH OF A CHANCE NEAR THE TERMINALS THAT VCTS IS
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  71  86  68  87 /  40  40  60  10  10
ANNISTON    88  72  86  70  87 /  40  30  60  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  89  73  87  70  89 /  40  40  60  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  91  73  88  71  91 /  40  30  60  10  10
CALERA      89  72  87  71  89 /  40  30  60  10  10
AUBURN      88  71  87  70  87 /  30  20  60  30  20
MONTGOMERY  91  72  90  73  91 /  30  20  60  30  20
TROY        90  71  90  71  89 /  20  20  60  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









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