Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 021637
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1137 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FLIP TO THE WESTERN SIDE OF ALABAMA
TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS OVER GEORGIA HAS SHIFTED
WESTWARD. THE BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE PRODUCT
HAS A PLUME OF 2+ INCHES ACROSS LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
THE MODELS SHOW INCREASING 500MB VORTICITY ACROSS WEST ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP INITIATE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
IN ADDITION TO THE DIURNAL ACTIVITY. RAISED POPS TO HIGH END
CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO RAISE EVEN FURTHER BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EXPECTING A GOOD BIT OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FROM I-65 WEST BUT CAN NOT
RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM AT ANY OF THE AIRPORTS TODAY. SEVERAL
VISIBLE BOUNDARIES ON SATELLITE WILL PROMPT VCTS WORDING FOR
TCL...EET AND BHM. WINDS ARE LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     92  68  93  70  91 /  40  20  40  20  40
ANNISTON    93  70  93  71  93 /  40  20  40  20  40
BIRMINGHAM  93  74  94  73  94 /  40  20  40  20  40
TUSCALOOSA  95  72  95  71  95 /  40  20  40  20  40
CALERA      93  72  93  72  93 /  40  20  40  20  40
AUBURN      93  73  92  72  92 /  30  20  40  20  40
MONTGOMERY  95  73  95  73  95 /  30  20  40  20  40
TROY        94  71  94  72  92 /  30  20  40  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








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