Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
000
FXUS64 KBMX 230856
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
356 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

A persistent band of moderate to heavy rainfall has resulted in
an additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall over the past 6 hours in a
band from SW to NE across the forecast area. The flash flood
watch will be allowed to continue with additional heavy rainfall
expected this afternoon and possibly through early Saturday.

The approach of Cindy`s mid-level trough will foster the
development of numerous showers and storms particularly along and
northwest of I-59 later today. As the remnants of Cindy recurve
toward the northeast and become absorbed into mid-latitude
westerlies, a strong wind field will remain in place across the
region this afternoon. Temperatures rising into the 80s with
dewpoints in the mid 70s could produce SBCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg.
Hodographs will be enlarged by southerly surface winds
increasing to 40-50kt at 850mb from the southwest. This
environment should yield supercell structures capable of producing
a few tornadoes. Isolated damaging winds will also be possible
with any bowing segments. Saturated soil conditions will also
contribute to a potential for downed trees with sub-severe winds.

As the remnants of Cindy zip off to the east, an upper-level
trough will push a cold front southward tonight. Additional
convective development is expected along the front, and the Flash
Flood Watch could be extended into early Saturday if conditions
warrant. The front and associated rain chances will continue
moving southward on Sunday as a stronger push of northerly flow
arrives, and the forecast area should have a chance to dry out
through Tuesday.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

A tropical rain band will affect mainly BHM and EET with the
potential for vis reductions for the next couple hours, before
dissipating prior to sunrise as the moisture axis is pinched off.
Otherwise southerly flow should keep the boundary layer well-mixed
and prevent any fog or prevailing IFR ceilings, with ceilings
expected to mainly be in the MVFR range. On Friday, a period of
VFR conditions is expected by around midday as a mid-level dry
slot moves over the region, with a line of showers and embedded
storms affecting most sites during the afternoon as TD Cindy moves
through TN. Yet another round of precipitation will move in from
the north late Friday evening ahead of a cold front, but will
address this in the next TAF issuance.

32/Davis

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

High rain chances will continue through Saturday with rain chances
decreasing for Sunday and Monday behind a cold front. There are
no fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     85  72  83  65  83 /  70  90  50  20  10
Anniston    87  72  82  67  82 /  50  80  60  20  10
Birmingham  85  73  82  66  83 /  80  80  60  20  10
Tuscaloosa  85  73  83  67  85 /  80  80  60  20  10
Calera      86  73  83  68  83 /  70  80  70  30  10
Auburn      87  73  83  69  82 /  30  50  80  30  20
Montgomery  89  75  86  72  85 /  30  50  80  40  20
Troy        89  75  86  71  85 /  20  40  80  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Flash Flood Watch through this evening for the following
counties: Bibb...Blount...Chilton...Coosa...Etowah...Fayette...
Greene...Hale...Jefferson...Lamar...Marengo...Marion...Perry...
Pickens...Shelby...St. Clair...Sumter...Talladega...Tuscaloosa...
Walker...Winston.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.