Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 311951
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
251 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST
AND BROAD TROUGHING TO OUR WEST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE SURFACE. ONLY MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VARY FROM THE EAST TO
NORTH...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES LOW. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED
COVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
ROTATES NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS...HIGHS
IN THE LOW 90S ARE EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE FROM MID WEEK FORWARD REGARDING
THE PROGRESSION OF THE BROAD TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THE GFS RETROGRADES
THE TROUGH FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE
TROUGH EASTWARD OVER THE AREA. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH
WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAIN WEAK AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW POPS. ALSO...RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES
IN THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE FINALLY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE
LOW CIGS AND FOG THAT WERE PRESENT THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT ALL
SITES. WE AREN`T EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH DRIER LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...PATCHY FOG WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE PRIMARILY FOR LOCATIONS THAT ARE MORE
FAVORABLE...SUCH AS KTOI. ALTHOUGH NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME...AT
LEAST LIGHT MVFR FOG MAY NEED TO BE ADDED INTO A FEW TERMINALS FOR THE
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

56/GDG


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. RH
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLD VALUES. NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     67  89  69  92  69 /  10  10   0  10  10
ANNISTON    69  89  70  91  71 /  10  10   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  70  90  72  92  71 /  10  10   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  70  93  73  93  73 /  10  10   0  10  10
CALERA      70  90  73  92  72 /  10  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      70  89  73  90  73 /  10  10  10  20  10
MONTGOMERY  70  94  73  95  74 /  10  10  10  20  10
TROY        69  93  72  93  72 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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