Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 171156 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
656 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY FROM
THE NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD ULTIMATELY LEAD TO SEVERAL DAYS OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER. SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERNIGHT SHOWS SOME PATCHES
OF LOW CLOUDS...BUT IT SEEMS NOTHING NEAR AS WIDESPREAD AS
PREVIOUS MORNINGS. THOSE CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT AND GIVE WAY TO
LOTS OF SUNSHINE TODAY.

A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH (AT LEAST) THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK SHOULD KEEP THE GULF SHUT OFF. WE WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH WHAT HAPPENS TO THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...AS THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT STORM COULD EVENTUALLY GET CARRIED WESTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. OTHERWISE...I`VE INTRODUCED ONLY VERY
SMALL POPS INTO THE FORECAST AT THE TAIL END...AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THREE DIFFERENT BANDS OF CLOUDS AFFECTING CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
MORNING. THE FIRST THAT WILL MOVE IN LATER TO SKIRT THE BHM/ANB
TAFS SOME STRATO CU ~35-45KFT. THEN MORE IMPORTANTLY THE OTHER 2
LOW STRATUS AREAS...1 MOVING SSW ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR ANYWHERE
FROM 400 FT TO 1KFT. A THIRD AREA OF LOW STRATUS IS DEVELOPED AND
IS DRIFTING EVER SO SLOWLY OVER THE I-85 CORRIDOR AFFECT MGM/TOI
WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS/VISBYS...WITH SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE THIS
MORNING. THE I-20 AREA IS MOVING QUICKLY AND SHOULD NOT LAST MORE
THAN A COUPLE OF HOURS AS IT PROGRESSES AND WILL GET THE HELP OF
SOME MIXING TO SHRINK THE AREAS AS WELL. ACROSS THE SOUTH MOVEMENT
IS SLOW. MGM IS RIGHT ON THE EDGE BUT MAY TEATER FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS BEFORE BECOMING TOTAL VFR. TOI MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER
BEING IN THE THICK OF IT. SHOULD FEEL THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE
EFFECTS AFTER THAT AND ALL SHOULD BE VFR BY MIDDAY THRU TONIGHT.

08/MK

NOTE: WE WILL BEGIN BACK WITH OUR SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF KASN TAF
(TALLADEGA AL) ON OCTOBER 5TH AT THE 00Z ISSUANCE AND IT WILL RUN
THROUGH OCTOBER 23RD 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  59  84  60  85 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    85  60  84  62  84 /  10   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  86  63  85  63  87 /   0   0   0  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  90  64  88  64  90 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      88  63  86  64  88 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      89  63  88  65  87 /  10   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  91  65  89  66  90 /  10   0   0  10  10
TROY        92  64  90  66  89 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

61/08




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