Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 011117
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
617 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AS WE TURN THE CALENDAR TO OCTOBER...WE CAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW AS AN
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE REGION. MID TO UPPER 80S ARE
EXPECTED WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY TOUCHING 90F.

A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE IS SET TO OCCUR BEGINNING ON THURSDAY AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ONE OF
THREE SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO PHASE INTO A LARGE AND DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY...TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AS A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO OUR NORTHWEST. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT
THERE ARE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GEM/GFS/ECMWF THAT MAKE
THIS A SLIGHTLY CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER. WHILE THE GEM/GFS DAMPEN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER TROUGH...THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO HANG ON TO A MORE ROBUST VORT MAX THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY
NEAR THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. LAPSE RATES/CAPE VALUES ARE SLIGHTLY
LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN 24 HOURS AGO...BUT MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 40-50 KT
STILL SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THE ECMWF STILL
SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE...WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WIND IN THE HWO. PRE-FRONTAL STORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO
WEST ALABAMA AROUND 3 AM FRIDAY WITH RAIN COMING TO AN END IN THE
EAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

BEHIND THE FRONT A SURGE OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTH BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND WITH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE
LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THE NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY FROM THE WEST BY
SUNDAY MORNING...LEADING TO WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 40S FOR LOWS. A
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BEST MOISTURE HAS BEEN IN THE SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN IFR VIS AT
TOI AND MGM THIS MORNING. SHOULD BURN BY 14Z. VFR AND LIGHT WINDS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH CALM WINDS TONIGHT. THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST AGAIN TONIGHT SO WENT MVFR BR AT
TOI AND MGM ONCE AGAIN. MORE CONFIDENT WITH TOI. OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN OCTOBER 5TH AT 00Z
AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








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