Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 221832
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1232 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AT
MIDDAY TODAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AREAWIDE. LOOKING AT THIS MORNING`S KBMX
12Z SOUNDING...STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. IF SOME OF THE STORMS ARE ABLE TO GET A HIGH ENOUGH
UPDRAFT DEVELOPING...WE COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL PRODUCERS WITH
500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -17C. OTHERWISE...STABLE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. THE WARM
FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
REMAINS JUST OFF THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING. IN TERMS OF THE
FORECAST...HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER AND LIKELY POPS WERE INCLUDED
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-59 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
UNCHANGED WITH LOWER 50S EXPECTED NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S FAR
SOUTH. UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS
WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE. WHILE AN OCCASIONAL BREAKOUT TO MVFR WILL
BE POSSIBLE...THE MAJORITY WILL BE IFR. SOME LIFR IS ALSO EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. FOR THE WEATHER...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR MGM
AND TOI WITH MORE PATCHY RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH...THROUGH 00Z.
WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

88

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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