Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 041214
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
714 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

RADAR IMAGERY IS VERY SIMILAR TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING...
WITH A PERSISTENT CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXTENDING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND WESTWARD INTO ARKANSAS.
THE FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING POSITIVELY
TILTED 500MB TROUGH AXIS. HIGH PWAT VALUES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL UPSTREAM ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI IS ON A TRAJECTORY TOWARD MARION COUNTY...WHERE
RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE APPROACHING 10 INCHES SINCE JULY 1ST. VERY
SATURATED GROUND EXISTS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...AND FLASH
FLOODING COULD BECOME A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE LATER THIS MORNING.

FARTHER SOUTH...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS
DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS. 700-500MB FLOW OF 30-40KT WILL SUPPORT
BOWING SEGMENTS AND A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY.

THE SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
TONIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY CLOSED OFF SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY ACROSS TENNESSEE. WITH A LACK OF RIDGING UPSTREAM FROM THE
TROUGH...PWAT VALUES SHOULD REMAIN QUITE HIGH NEAR AND BEHIND THE
THROUGH AXIS. HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR SUNDAY...
AND CANNOT RULE OUT A NEED FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO BE
EXTENDED IN TIME AND/OR EXPANDED SOUTHWARD.

87/GRANTHAM

.LONG TERM...
AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

THE TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO EXIT ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRIES
TO SWING DOWN TOWARD THE AREA. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE BERMUDA
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND KEEP THE FRONT FROM WORKING
INTO THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PUSH IT BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY. WITH THAT SCENARIO PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE WE DO GET BACK TO MORE OF A
CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMER BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE
UPPER 80S NORTH TO LOW 90S SOUTH AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
STORMS IN THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NORTHERN SITES WILL SEE THE HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING THROUGH THE
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVITY AFTER NOON
THROUGH 21Z BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND. THERE WILL LIKELY BE 3 OR 4
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR THE SOUTH
THE RAIN WILL WORK INTO MGM AFTER 21Z AND TOI AFTER 22Z.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     77  69  82  68  86 / 100  80  70  40  50
ANNISTON    79  69  82  68  86 / 100  80  70  40  50
BIRMINGHAM  78  69  83  69  86 / 100  80  70  40  50
TUSCALOOSA  80  69  84  70  88 /  90  80  70  40  50
CALERA      79  69  83  69  85 /  90  80  70  40  50
AUBURN      84  70  83  69  84 /  80  70  70  40  50
MONTGOMERY  89  70  86  70  88 /  80  70  70  40  50
TROY        88  72  86  70  87 /  70  70  70  40  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARION-
PICKENS-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.

&&

$$



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