Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
FXUS64 KBMX 250858
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
358 AM CDT TUE OCT 25 2016
Today and Tonight.
Cirrus shield continues to push southward toward the coast.
Meanwhile, the weak frontal boundary is now across the TN Valley and
will slowly push southward as it dissipates. Dew points have risen
into the upper 40s just ahead of the front. This will prevent temps
from falling much further in some areas prior to sunrise. We`ll
start the day in the mid 40s to low 50s, but quickly warm into the
low/mid 80s in most areas. However, easterly sfc flow behind the
dissipating front and some weak cold air damming will keep temps
in the upper 70s across the northeast counties. Clear skies will
continue into the night with lows primarily in the low/mid 50s.
Wednesday through Monday.
By Wednesday, we continue to see an approaching upper shortwave
swing across the Central U.S. and across Alabama Wednesday night
into Thursday along with another decaying surface frontal
boundary. Although overall moisture remains meager, we should
have a brief time tonight into Wednesday for some return southerly
low level flow into the state to rebound us enough ahead of time to
squeeze out a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two
Wednesday night into Thursday, mainly across the northern portions
of Central Alabama. Unfortunately, expected rainfall amounts will
be light. We should see milder overnight temperatures for
Wednesday night with extra cloud cover and southeast to southerly
flow helping to increase dew points across the area, especially
A weak surface boundary will move through much of the area
Thursday into Friday as it decays with ridging behind it noted
across the Mid Atlantic states yielding northeast wedging across
Alabama, and this will help keep temperatures from rising too much
in the absence of Thursday`s clouds with drier/slightly cooler
air in place.
As we progress into the weekend, the northern tier of the U.S.
will remain in a progressive pattern with a series of fronts that
will mainly move from west to east with surface ridging remaining
in place across Alabama which means the dry weather continues.
This is in thanks to upper ridging over Texas Friday that is
expected to spread eastward across the Deep South into a flat
ridge and zonal flow across the northern half of the U.S. over the
weekend. By Monday, the upper ridge does shift to being centered
over the Gulf Coast States as a trough develops over the Pacific
Northwest, but alas we remain under the ridge in Alabama. With
overall flow stagnant over the weekend, so too will our
temperatures remain stagnant, with 50s/80s to remain the status
quo over the weekend into the beginning of next week with no big
swings in either direction.
06Z TAF Discussion.
VFR conditions will prevail thru the period as ridging remains
dominant over the Southeast. Those high clouds will exit the
southern taf sites by 15z. Winds will become easterly after 15Z,
but remain light. Some high clouds will begin to move back in from
the south after 6Z Wednesday and will be added in the next set of
Relative humidity values will be slightly higher this afternoon
but will still be in the 25-30% range. Low level moisture will
begin to increase on Wednesday. Rain showers will be possible
Wednesday night mainly north of Interstate 59 but any rainfall
amounts will be light. A small chance of showers will linger into
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 80 49 79 58 78 / 0 0 0 30 20
Anniston 82 52 79 58 78 / 0 0 0 20 20
Birmingham 83 57 81 61 79 / 0 0 0 20 20
Tuscaloosa 85 54 83 60 81 / 0 0 0 30 20
Calera 84 55 81 60 80 / 0 0 0 20 20
Auburn 80 55 79 59 79 / 0 0 0 10 20
Montgomery 86 57 83 60 83 / 0 0 0 10 20
Troy 83 54 82 58 82 / 0 0 0 10 10