Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 202011
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
311 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...
This afternoon and Tonight.

An upper ridge over the central Gulf Coast region has held at bay
deeper moisture west of the Mississippi River. Cirrus will be the
only cloud type to impact the area overnight. A strong inversion
aloft and increasing southeast flow overnight will result in
warmer temperatures tonight, with lows mainly in the lower to
middle 50s. Some of the colder valley locations across east and
northeast Alabama will likely fall into the middle and upper 40s.

58/rose

.LONG TERM...
Saturday through Thursday.

A ridge aloft and at the surface will continue to move eastward
on Saturday ahead of an approaching Plains trough. A warm and dry
day is expected since the western edge of the ridge should extend
far enough west to divert enhanced moisture and associated rain
chances to our west.

This will begin to change on Sunday as height falls overspread the
region. The GFS has trended toward the slower timing of the ECMWF,
and this scenario would lead to rain holding off for much of the
area (especially east of I-65) on Sunday afternoon. A widespread
soaking rainfall is likely Sunday night into Monday with both
models indicating a somewhat slow-moving closed upper trough
affecting the region. A moderate to strong low-level jet may be
present which could result in a non-zero threat for embedded QLCS
tornadoes. However, the setup does not appear to be favorable at
this time to due to very weak CAPE values in association with poor
lapse rates. An upstream disturbance will cause the trough to
become an open wave and accelerate eastward Monday night, putting
an end to the rainfall. Much cooler conditions are expected for
Tuesday through Thursday as the coolest airmass of the season
becomes established across the eastern CONUS.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conds thru the period with only sct-bkn cirrus. Light east to
northeast winds becoming calm by 00z.

58/rose


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Mild and dry weather will continue through Saturday and early
Sunday. Widespread soaking rainfall is expected Sunday night into
Monday. Relative humidity values should remain above critical
thresholds. There are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     49  78  57  79  64 /   0   0   0  10  70
Anniston    52  78  59  79  66 /   0   0   0  10  60
Birmingham  55  80  63  80  67 /   0   0  10  20  80
Tuscaloosa  56  82  64  81  66 /   0   0  10  50  80
Calera      54  80  63  80  66 /   0   0  10  20  80
Auburn      56  79  62  79  68 /   0   0  10  10  60
Montgomery  57  83  64  84  69 /   0   0  10  20  80
Troy        57  82  63  82  68 /   0   0  10  20  70

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$


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