Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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000
FXUS65 KBOI 300245
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
845 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING HAS
BEEN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES /MALHEUR COUNTY THROUGH WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY/ NORTHWEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTER. ONLY A
FEW STORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES TODAY. MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WASHINGTON
STATE THIS EVENING INITIATED FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR LOWER POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
THIS EVENING. STORMS ACROSS OWYHEE COUNTY THROUGH THE MAGIC
VALLEY HAVE PRODUCED STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS 35 TO 55 MPH AS WELL AS
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET.
AT LEAST ONE NEW FIRE HAS BEEN REPORTED FROM LIGHTNING WHICH IS
50-ACRES NEAR ROGERSON. A LITTLE COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCT-BKN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THROUGH
06Z...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT SCATTERED ACTIVITY
SOUTH AND EAST OF KMUO. MAINLY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS 12 KNOTS OR
LESS...EXCEPT GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO 45 KNOTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS. WINDS ALOFT...WESTERLY 5-15 KNOTS UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF WASHINGTON LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST OVER NORTHERN IDAHO TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH
IS WEAKENING THE RIDGE AS IT RIDES OVER THE TOP AND IS BRINGING
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SLOW TO
GET STARTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL EXPECTING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING.
PRECIPITATION WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO JUST
UNDER THE CORE OF THE STORM WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THUNDERSTORMS IS GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT BUT COULD SEE ISOLATED
STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY. MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS TO THE
NORTH...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ZONES ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER.
RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
HOT ACROSS THE REGION AVERAGING 10 TO 13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT BASIN /CENTERED
OVER NEVADA/ FOR THE EXTENDED. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARDS FOUR CORNERS AREA OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO CREEP NORTHWARD. THIS PATTERN
WOULD FAVOR INCREASED CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
SATURDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE DETAILS OF
THIS PATTERN CHANGE.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT IDZ423.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....BW
PREV SHORT TERM...JA
PREV LONG TERM....KA/WH



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