Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 230258
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
858 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...WEAK WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE MTNS OF EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND SW
IDAHO AND POSSIBLY A SPRINKLE TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HAVE
INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER FORECAST ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT WITH STEADIER PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH MID LEVEL CEILINGS.  AT 02Z REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWING PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHEAST JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF LIGHT RAIN AT KBKE.  AFTER 09Z
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO KBKE/KBNO/KMYL AND OVER THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.  THURSDAY MORNING THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR KMYL TO DROP TO MVFR CEILINGS.  SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS...BECOMING BREEZY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 35 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K
FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A MOIST PACIFIC PLUME TO
OUR WEST WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND REACH SE OREGON AND MOST OF SW
IDAHO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN STALL OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH ALONG A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOIST PLUME WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE PRECIP TOTALS WILL BE GREATEST. THE ONLY
AREAS THAT MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP ARE THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY. QPF TOTALS /FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY/ WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH /0.10/ TO A QUARTER
/O.25/ OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A QUARTER /0.25 TO HALF
/0.50/ INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ABOVE 7000 FEET. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WARMEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS
THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT /SOUTH OF A BURNS-BOISE-FAIRFIELD LINE/ ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH...THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW. GOOD MIXING WITH A
MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES. A HEADLINE MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE WINDS DURING THAT PERIOD...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO OCCUR SOMETIME OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BREEZY BEHIND THIS FRONT.
SNOW LEVELS FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DROP FROM OVER 10000 FEET
SATURDAY MORNING TO 5000 TO 6000 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING. NO
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS FORECAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING MONDAY AND A DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL SET IN BEHIND IT. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED UNTIL
A TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE IN AGAIN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A
MORE SSWERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD...INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON A DAILY BASIS. THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
EACH PASSING TROUGH...POSSIBLY COMING IN THE FORM OF SNOW ABOVE
5000 FT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....EP/AB



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