Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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000
FXUS65 KBOI 300323
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
923 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE FRONT HAS LOST ITS DEFINITION THIS EVENING.
WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF MOUNTAIN HOME...AREAS
IN OREGON CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO WEAKEN AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO THIS EVENING AS SURFACE DECOUPLES FROM FLOW ALOFT. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING WILL FOCUS
OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ID MTNS AND SNAKE RIVER PLAIN /MTN HOME
EASTWARD/ IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS. HAVE MADE
UPDATES FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING TO LOWER POPS TO THE WEST AND
INCREASED POPS ACROSS S-CENTRAL ID ZONES FOR OVERNIGHT. ALSO
INCLUDED MENTION OF THUNDER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. WILDFIRE SMOKE NORTH OF KBKE-KMYL. LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER TREASURE AND MAGIC
VALLEYS...AND OVER THE BLUE AND WEST CENTRAL MNTS...SHOULD TAPER OFF
BY 30/06Z. CHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE BLUE/WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MNTS
AGAIN AFTER 30/15Z...SHOULD END BY 31/03Z. SURFACE WINDS...GENERALLY
12 KTS OR LESS. EXPECTS GUSTS 17-22 KTS OVER MOST OF THE REGION BY
30/17Z...SHOULD COME BACK DOWN BY 31/03Z. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...SW 20-45 KTS BECOMING SW 20-30 KTS BY 30/06Z AND W 20-30 KTS
BEFORE 31/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...AT 2 PM MDT SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NERN
CORNER OF OREGON...SWD THROUGH ERN BAKER COUNTY...THEN SSWWD
THROUGH MALHEUR COUNTY.  KCBX RADAR DETECTED SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT IN BAKER COUNTY AND NRN-MOST MALHEUR COUNTY.  HIGH
ELEVATIONS IN OREGON HAVE TAPPED INTO VERY STRONG SWLY WINDS AT
700 MB.  EVEN LOWER ELEVATION SITES LIKE BURNS AND ROME HAVE
REPORTED SUSTAINED SW WINDS 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.  FRONT
WILL REACH ONTARIO/OR AROUND 5 PM MDT...BOISE BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM
MDT...MOUNTAIN HOME 8 PM MDT...JEROME/TWIN FALLS 10 PM MDT.
EXPECT WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE SNAKE
BASIN DURING FROPA THEN DIMINISHING.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT...SHOWERS CONTINUING A COUPLE HOURS
BEHIND THE FRONT.  COOLER TONIGHT BUT WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD.  MUCH COOLER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
BUT ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.  UPPER TROUGH
WILL COME THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS IN NRN ZONES...GENERALLY
NORTH OF 44N.  THE SHOWERS WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS NEAR 60 IN NRN
AREAS.  HIGHS IN THE SNAKE BASIN WILL BE 75 TO 82.  WITH SKIES
CLEARING SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL REALLY DROP...LOWS MONDAY MORNING
IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 IN THE VALLEYS.  BUT
MONDAY WILL END UP SUNNY AND WARMER THAN SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OUT.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE
AHEAD OF REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND 15-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BY THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS
AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND STARTING FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....AB
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA/JC


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