Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KBOI 302047
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
247 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER COVERING A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HAVE LOWERED TODAYS MAX TEMPS ONCE AGAIN AND RESENT
GRIDS/FORECAST. IN THE AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN MORE SUN...TWF/JER
AREA...TEMPERATURES REACHED THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS AND THEREFORE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
AND INTO WESTERN MONTANA AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING OUTWARD FROM
THE NEXT LOW OFF THE COAST. LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS BAKER COUNTY AND ALSO UP INTO THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD
THIS EVENING. SUNDAY SHOULD BE BACK TO THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO GETS INTO THE WARM
SECTOR WITH MUCH LESS CLOUDS AND A GENERAL SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW.

BACK TO THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW BEGINS TO SWINGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOIST CONDITIONS
WILL COMBINE WITH DIFLUENCE ALOFT TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION TO THE REGION. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR MONDAY WILL BE THE
TIMING OF THE VORTICITY LOBE SWINGING INTO OREGON. THIS AREA MIGHT
SEE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY...THEN THE MAIN ACTIVITY
PUSHES NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF MSO/PIH/PDT/BOI FORECAST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES DROPPING ABOUT 10 DEGREES FROM SUNDAY TO
MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS ALL SHOW A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS IS BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO
INCONSISTENCIES IN HOW EACH MODEL HANDLES FEATURES MOVING THROUGH
THE TROUGH...ESPECIALLY AFTER WEDNESDAY. WPC PREFERS THE BETTER
CONTINUITY OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH HOLDS THE TROUGH OVER
OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING IT EAST OVER THE ROCKIES NEXT
WEEKEND. SO WE CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN A
DECREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH AREAS OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CEILINGS. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL ABOUT
06Z...MAINLY NORTH OF A KBNO-KMYL-FAIRFIELD LINE...AND FROM THE
KTWF/KJER AREA SOUTH INTO NEVADA. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REDEVELOP OVER THOSE AREAS SUNDAY AFTENOON. SURFACE WINDS...
MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST 5-10 KT. WINDS ALOFT...WEST 10-15 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...CR
LONG TERM....JT/WH
AVIATION.....JT



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.