Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 090241
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
941 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THIS WEEK...BUT WILL DROP WAY BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 941 PM EST MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW FINALLY STARTING TO DEVELOP
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS VERMONT.
HAVE UPPER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL MOST AREAS AND
FINE TUNED DEW POINTS GIVEN THE SHARP DRY TO MOIST SCENARIO AS
PRECIPITATION FINALLY DEVELOPS. REMAINDER OF GOING FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE. STILL LOOKING AT MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT PICKING UP AN
INCH OR SO OF SNOW BY THE TUESDAY MORNING WORK COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BUT AREA SEEMS TO BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
BE TRICKY ON TUESDAY WITH A SHARP 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS RANGE FROM -7C
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE TO -14C NORTHEAST KINGDOM...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S TO MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR
REGION...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN THE WEST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
KEEP IMMEDIATE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE MID 20S...WHILE
POTSDAM/CANTON SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 30S.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRES WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DEVELOPING
COLD POOL ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.25. THIS
SUPPORTS ONLY LIGHT QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN FLUFF
FACTOR...SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. BEST DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE ARRIVES AROUND 12Z WEDS...BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST IN
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT. WILL MENTION CHC POPS VALLEYS TO LIKELY IN
THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDS...BUT SLOWLY FALL BY
WEDS NIGHT UNDER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST SURFACE
TO 850MB FLOW OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS. SOME LOCALIZED UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
IS POSSIBLE WEDS NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES ARE VERY LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR A STEADIER
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING
TO AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE
EAST. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW ZERO.

MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DEEP UPPER LOW. ECMWF
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD KEEP CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO
SATURDAY...BUT GFS SHOWS ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT WELL OFFSHORE WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN MOST SPOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

BIG STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE ARCTIC CHILL...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THIS POINT EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW IN MOST AREAS...BUT WILL HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS 850 MB
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND -30C. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO. COLDEST TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 10 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF SUBZERO TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MODERATION BEGINS ON
MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...INITIALLY VFR, EVENTUALLY DETERIORATING
TO MIX OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS
FROM THE EAST, BUILDING BACK WESTWARD. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR/VFR WITH INTERVALS IFR IN LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO
TUESDAY.

VERY DRY AIR HAS KEPT LIGHT SNOW FROM FALLING DESPITE RADAR
PRESENTATION ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. RECENT INDICATIONS PER VSF METAR
INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVELS ARE BECOMING A BIT MORE SATURATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT, WHICH SHOULD ALSO BE THE TREND INTO THE EVENING FOR
THE REST OF THE TAFS. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO DROP FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST, SOONEST AT RUT/MPV AND LATER AT MSS, WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS IFR IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS.
WINDS LIGHT EASTERLY.

PRECIPITATION CHARACTER BECOMES MORE INTERMITTENT/SHOWERY WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CEILING HEIGHTS TUESDAY. HOWEVER VIS MAY
BE AS LOW AS IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS, WHICH MAY BE THE MOST PERSISTENT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK FOR THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY. WINDS
LIGHT/VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO


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