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000
FXUS61 KBTV 200801
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
401 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAIR AND
DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. FOR THE WEEKEND...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 401 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL RING IN THE
SUMMER SOLSTICE IN STYLE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVERHEAD PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS. MEAN 925MB TEMPS OF +14-15C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 70S AREA-WIDE...TO LOCALLY NEAR 80 IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST.
LAWRENCE/CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS. REALLY NOT MUCH MORE TO SAY
OTHER THAN HAVE A GREAT DAY!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 401 AM EDT THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THOUGH A WEAK FRONT
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL MAKE A RUN FOR THE
INTL BORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LOW/MID LEVEL RH
FIELDS SHOW MOISTURE THINS CONSIDERABLY THOUGH AS IT APPROACHES
THE BTV CWA...AND GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE PLUS THE FACT
THAT VERY LITTLE RAIN HAS FALLEN WITH THIS FEATURE UPSTREAM...HAVE
NOT MENTIONED ANYTHING MORE THAN A 10 POP ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. OTHERWISE...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
TONIGHT...AND HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL START OUT GENERALLY CLEAR AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT AND WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXIT TO THE EAST...BUT WE SHOULD SEE
INCREASING SKY COVER AGAIN GOING TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING AS UPPER
LEVEL HEAT RIDGE OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST SHIFTS EAST TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER WE SEE SOME SORT
OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOP AND RIDE OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB
SATURDAY AS WELL...NOW PUSHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...SUMMER WARMTH ON TAP FOR THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS SFC/UPPER LEVEL RIDGES SET UP OFFSHORE...SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION. LL SW FLOW WILL KEEP STRONG WAA ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME. 925 TEMPS WILL BE RANGING FROM 20C TO
25C...W/ 850 TEMPS RANGING FROM 16C TO 20C. THIS IN TURN WOULD PUT
AREA INTO THE U80S/L90S FOR MANY SPOTS THRU PERIOD...BUT DIFFERING
MDL RUNS IN THE GFS/ECMWF BRING SEVERAL WK SFC WAVES AND ALONG
WITH DIURNAL HEATING EFFECTS...WITH BRING THE CHANCE FOR RW/TRW IN
ALL PERIODS. W/ THIS CHANCE FOR CLDS/PRECIP...WILL UNDERCUT LATEST
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHS...AND KEEP AREA IN THE
80S. SOME AREAS IN CVLY/CT RIVER VALLEY MAY NEAR 90F. HAVE
CONTINUED MENTION OF HIR POPS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER/ST LAW
VALLEY AS THESE AREA WILL BE LOCATED ON OUTER PERIPHERY WHERE SFC
FEATURES WILL POTENTIALLY TRACK. BEST CHANCES FOR TRW WILL OCCUR
IN LATTER PORTION OF EXTENDED ON TUES NGT/ WEDNESDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES THRU GREAT LKS REGION AND INTO AREA. BEST
INSTABILITY WED AFTNOON WITH DEWPTS RANGING IN THE 60S...ALLOWING
FOR CAPE VALUES REACHING AT LEAST 1000-2000J/KG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR COND W/ SKC THRU 00Z FRI. SCT250
FOR SLK/MSS/PBG THRU 06Z FRI. MVFR FG DOWN TO 3SM AT TIMES FOR
MPV/SLK FROM 08Z-12Z THIS MORNING. LGT/VAR WINDS THRU 15Z THEN
BECM SW-SE 5-10KTS THRU 00Z FRI...THEN LGT/VAR FOR SLK/MPV.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CONT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING...ALONG WITH THE CHCS FOR SHOWERS BY LATE FRIDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC WARM FRNT. THE CHCS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WL
CONT OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED...
BUT MVFR WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WL BE DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS BTWN 17Z-
23Z EACH DAY. IF A STORM IMPACTS A TAF SITE AND SOME RAIN
OCCURS...PATCHY FOG WOULD BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
EVENING/EARLY MORNING HRS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR
MONDAY W/ SOME MVFR/IFR AFTERNOON -RW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...BANACOS/JN