Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 010237
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1037 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WILL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 1031 PM EDT SATURDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM. VERY DRY AIR REMAINS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S...SO AS PRECIP ARRIVES TOWARD SUNRISE
SUNDAY...EXPECT SOME VIRGA AND AND EVAPORATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR.
THIS WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 40S
VALLEYS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BASED ON CURRENT OBS
AND MORE CLOUDS. ALSO...HAVE MOVED UP ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIP BY
SEVERAL HOURS...AS CURRENT RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN
ALREADY REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS WESTERN NY/PA. USING THE HRRR
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS...THINKING LIGHT RAIN REACHES WESTERN
CWA BETWEEN 09-11Z...AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BETWEEN 12Z-
14Z..AND INTO MOST OF VT BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS REALLY
GOOD.

MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS STILL REAPING THE BENEFITS OF
SURFACE HIGH RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH PROVIDING NORTH
COUNTRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. WINDS HAVE
GOTTEN A BIT BRISK OUT OF THE NORTH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS WESTERN NEW YORK BY THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL
DROP QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT WHERE LINGERING CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME QUICK
RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS CLOUDS INCREASE LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT
THE TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY AS A WARM
AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
FROM 18Z - 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DEEP MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA AS WELL AS VORTICITY ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MAY WILL BE COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS DUE
TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S ACROSS
OUR AREA WITH PERHAPS JUST A COUPLE 60 DEGREE READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF HIGHER
POPS A BRIEF LULL IN DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION ON
THE INTERMITTENT/LIGHT SIDE WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG
POSSIBLE WITH THE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. RATHER UNIFORM LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED.

BY MONDAY AFOREMENTIONED DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE PULL
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARRIVING
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PER WPC/BLENDED QPF
PROGS AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED UNDER
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. DID OPT TO LEAN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MAX
TEMP GUIDANCE OFFERING NEAR STEADY READINGS FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S AREA WIDE.

BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE ON TRACK TO EXIT
NORTHEAST WITH STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDING DESPITE LINGERING
CLOUDS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE
THE ONE MAINLY DRY 24- 36 HOUR PERIOD OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MODERATING
HIGHS TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY TUESDAY IN THE 58 TO 65 RANGE WITH
SOME INTERMITTENT SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ADDITIONAL DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS
ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT IT`S SAFE TO SAY A RENEWED
CLOUDY/INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PIVOT INTO THE
REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR EARLY MAY SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY, THEN DETERIORATING
TO WIDESPREAD MVFR REST OF SUNDAY IN STEADY LIGHT RAIN AND
STRATUS.

HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL, BUT INCREASING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF WARM FRONT TO GRADUALLY BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD. THUS EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z BUT WITH
STEADILY LOWERING VFR CEILINGS. WINDS NORTH 5-8 KTS BUT BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

RAIN SHIELD TO THEN BUILD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TAFS THROUGH
SUNDAY. INITIAL VISIBILITIES GENERALLY 5-6 SM IN RAIN, WITH
STEADIER 3 SM RAIN TOWARD LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. CEILINGS 1.5-2.5 KFT MAINLY IN THE STEADIER
RAIN ALSO OBSCURING MTNS. INITIAL LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 4-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR W/PSBL IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE.
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW CEILINGS.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO



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