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000
FXUS61 KBTV 151149
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
749 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY BRINGING CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT. COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD AND
DRY. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...WITH A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 737 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPDATED FORECAST FOR 730 AM UPDATE TO
REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. MILD TEMPS IN
PLACE AT 7 AM ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WILL SEE INCREASE IN
PRECIP AS SHORTWAVE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL
DROP SHARPLY BEHIND ARCTIC COLD FRONT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND COLD FRONT CROSSES THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST
BEHIND COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME OROGRAPHICALLY
DRIVEN. SHORTWAVE CROSSING AREA IN BASE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
ENHANCE LIFT AND PRECIPITATION. POPS WILL DECREASE TOWARDS THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TODAY. 5AM TEMPS
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT TO AROUND 40 IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
TEMPS DROP QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEHIND ARCTIC
FRONT...AND SOME SNOW SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT SATURDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH UPPER TROF STILL SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA AND INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING LOW AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING
HIGH. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND ARCTIC FRONT THAT CROSSED
THE AREA SATURDAY WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT POPS CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AND ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE MAX
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE TEENS...THIS IS ABOUT TWENTY DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MID MARCH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
VERY COLD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE. NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE REGION...THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 20
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 427 AM EDT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS WITH MUCH OF THE AREA FALLING BELOW ZERO YET AGAIN.
EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY FROM ZERO TO 10 BELOW WITH SOME LOWER
READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS IT
SLIDES FROM QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES. TEMPS NOT QUITE AS COLD
WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 5 TO 15
ABOVE. MODERATION CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AS WE GET INTO RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES EARLY IN THE
WEEK WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY BY LATER IN THE DAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS. COULD BE SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART.
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
40...THEN COOLING A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS FORECAST
AREA TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR FOR BTV/PBG/RUT WITH JUST POTENTIAL
FOR BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS. BETTER CHANCE FOR SEEING SEVERAL
HOURS OF MVFR/IFR AT MPV/MSS AND ESPECIALLY SLK. LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY AT SLK/MPV WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS. DECREASING CLOUDS AND CIGS BECOMING VFR BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY TODAY SHIFTING FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
THIS MORNING...INTO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. EXPECT WINDS 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NGT...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
AT THE SFC. NW WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KTS SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOWERING TO MVFR IN AFTERNOON SNOW/RAIN SHWRS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS