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000
FXUS61 KBTV 070220
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
920 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THIS EVENING TO A POSITION SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION
ACROSS THE NORTH. COLD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 920 PM EST FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED LOW-
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL PA TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
MAINE. THE GREATEST MOISTURE IS ALIGNED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THOUGH OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE LOW LEVELS REMAIN
TOO DRY FOR SNOW TO FALL. GIVEN RECENT TRENDS IN SHORT- RANGE
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR PRESENTATION SHOWING
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP TO THE SOUTH...I THINK IT WILL BE RATHER
DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SNOWFALL NORTH OF A
SARANAC LAKE- MONTPELIER/ST. JOHNSBURY LINE. SIMILAR TO PRIOR
THINKING...THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AND INTO ESSEX COUNTY NY OVERNIGHT
WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN D-2" FOR CENTRAL VERMONT AND ESSEX COUNTY NY
TO 1-3" IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. SO THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE
WAS TO LOWER POPS NORTH. TEMPS WERE ALSO RUNNING A FEW DEGREES TOO
COLD AND I`VE ALSO GONE AHEAD AND INCREASED HOURLY TEMPS UP
SLIGHTLY. LOWS STILL CLOSE TO PRIOR FORECAST...RANGING FROM THE
TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND THE `DACKS TO THE MID/UPPER
20S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 254 PM EST FRIDAY...OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE
MAINLY DRY THIS WEEKEND WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY DURING
SATURDAY TO -13 TO -15C BY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VALLEY
HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S...ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS WITH
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COLDER THAN
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HOLD OFF ON BRINGING LIGHT SNOW INTO THE
REGION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING...SNOW
EXPECTED TO BE FALLING ACROSS MOST OF FORECAST AREA...WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO BY DAYBREAK...AND SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION TO FOLLOW. LOOK FOR A RATHER MESSY COMMUTE MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 238 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARDS IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS THINKING AS MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRAG WARM AND COLD FRONTS INTO THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WARM FRONT MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS SNOW THROUGH MID-DAY BEFORE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TO TRANSITION CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS TO RAIN. ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS PRECIP COULD STAY ALL SNOW OR
HAVE A SLIGHT MIX WITH RAIN...BUT THIS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW
FAR NORTH THE FRONT MAKES IT. DURING THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO
RAIN THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT...BUT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND ISOLATED SO
HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS...ATTENDING COLD FRONT SHIFTS IN FROM THE WEST WITH FALLING
SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL TEMPS TURNING PRECIP BACK TO SNOW...THOUGH
WILL BE DISSIPATING QUICKLY BY MIDNIGHT. OVERALL FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY COULD SEE SOME ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA SO STAY TUNED THIS WEEKEND AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...COLDER TEMP PROFILES RETURN AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
SETTLES OVER THE NORTHEAST. WE`LL BE UNDER FAST WEST/SOUTHWEST UPPER
FLOW WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH SUPPORTING SOME LOW
CHANCE POPS HERE AND THERE FOR SNOW ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT NO REAL BIG ACCUMULATIONS ARE ON THE HORIZON...SIGH.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THOUGH OF POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS ALONG A
MODEST ARCTIC FRONT SAGGING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT CERTAINLY WAY TO FAR OUT TO HAVE ANY
CONFIDENCE IN SUCH A MESOSCALE PHENOMENON. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE
NUMBERS...ALL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXIST OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA AND WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE FOR MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
LOWERING CEILINGS AT KSLK...KMPV...AND KRUT WHERE MVFR CEILINGS
WILL DEVELOP AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE
ONLY LOCATION TO LIGHT SNOW THAT WOULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON
VISIBILITY WOULD BE AT KRUT WHERE MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL
DEVELOP BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. AFTER 12Z...ALL
AREAS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE 5 TO 15 KNOT RANGE ALONG WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN DEVELOPING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF
MVFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF