Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 292032
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
432 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through this
evening as an upper level shortwave tracks through the North
Country. Expect additional showers to be possible again on
Memorial Day with slightly cooler high temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 344 PM EDT Sunday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue through this evening as energy from an associated mid
level shortwave that is crossing through the North Country. The
convection has been focused in northern New York west of Lake
Champlain as most of Vermont has been fighting the marine airmass
associated with the back door cold front from this morning. High
precipitable water values and slow moving storms will contribute
to localized heavy rainfall. Showers have already produced enough
rainfall based on MRMS precip and 1 hour totals to warrant the
issuance of a flash flood warning for central Franklin and
southern Clinton county in New York. The areal coverage of the
showers should begin to decline through the evening as we lose the
diurnal heating and instability.

For Memorial Day, I anticipate another day of scattered showers
with a few embedded thunderstorms. It won`t be quite as warm as
today so instability will be limited however through will be
enough unstable air to see a few isolated thunderstorms.

Temps overnight will drop into the mid 60s for the Champlain
valley and west and east of the Greens expect lows to drop to the
upper 50s under the marine air. Expected max temps tomorrow will
be in the low to mid 80s as the upper level trough finally starts
to push through the North Country.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 432 PM EDT Sunday...Have kept in slight to low chance pops
early Monday evening for showers, but expecting conditions to
become dry later Monday night. High pressure to build into the
region on Tuesday. An upper ridge over the Great Lakes will build
slowly east Tuesday and Tuesday night, bringing dry weather and
cooler temperatures to the north country.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 432 PM EDT Sunday...A ridge of high pressure at the surface
and aloft will build east from the Great Lakes, with fair and dry
weather expected Wednesday and Thursday. A weakening cold front
will move east from the Great Lakes Thursday night and Friday and
will bring a chance of showers to the north country. ECMWF and GFS
models showing some difference for Saturday and Sunday, so have
stuck with super-blend pops and will have a chance for showers in
the forecast for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 18z Monday...showers and thunderstorms are moving through
the Adirondacks up to the Canadian border. These cells should
have impact on slk/pbg/btv over the next few hours with
thunderstorms temporarily on station from 18z-21z. Scattered
showers could impact all stations except mss through 00z and then
again overnight from 06-12z. Impacts would be temporary mvfr
conditions with passing showers. Overall conditions should remain
vfr with mpv the one exception seeing mvfr ceilings overnight
until the early morning hours. Winds will be southerly for most of
the period 05-15 knots.

Outlook 18z Monday through
Thursday... Mainly VFR with daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Greatest coverage/threat
appears to occur in the Monday early evening time frame. Best
chance for a dry day will be Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record maximum temperatures for today (May 29) are as follows:

                          5/29
BTV - Burlington        89 in 1978
MPV - Montpelier        87 in 1978
MSS - Massena           90 in 1978
St Johnsbury            92 in 1978
Mt Mansfield            77 in 1978

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal/Neiles
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Neiles/MV
CLIMATE...BTV



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