Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 241139
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
739 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY CONTROL REGIONAL WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, WARM SUMMERLIKE WEATHER WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD
INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 726 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO TRENDS IN SKY COVER AND
T/TD OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OTHERWISE GOING REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
TODAY BEGINS OUR TRANSITIONAL PERIOD BACK INTO SUMMERLIKE WEATHER
AS PRONOUNCED HEIGHT AND THICKNESS RISES CONTINUE UNDER DEEPENING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL TREND GUSTY BY AFTERNOON.
USING A MODEL BLEND OF 18-21Z 925 MB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST MAX
READINGS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST SPOTS,
PERHAPS TOUCHING THE 80F MARK IN WARMER LOCALES OF THE CHAMPLAIN
AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEYS WHERE DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY BOOST
READINGS A DEGREE OR TWO. WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY, A
WEAK AND DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTED WSW TO ESE ALONG/JUST
NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER MAY STILL SPARK A WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-
BASED SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT BASED OFF SFC- BASED CAPES TO 500 J/KG AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DEEP AND DRY (TO 700 MB) SO IF AN ISOLATED
STORM DOES FORM LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH OR SO WILL BE
POSSIBLE BENEATH ANY CONVECTIVE CORES AS PARCEL DESCENT WOULD BE
ACCELERATING DUE TO EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES BENEATH THE CLOUD BASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY ISOLATED EVENING CONVECTION FAR
NORTHEAST WILL THEN END BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT SOONER, LEAVING CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
WILL THEN TREND GRADUALLY CLOUDY LATER AT NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A
STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES. A
BRIEF SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE FAR WEST TOWARD MORNING, THOUGH MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HOLDING IN THE 50S FOR MOST.

BY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN NY COUNTIES INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AND HAVE OFFERED HIGHEST POPS/STEADIER SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND NOMINAL INSTABILITY IN THE
LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW A FEW/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NY COUNTIES LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IN A MORE LIMITED FASHION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND AFOREMENTIONED
PRECIPITATION, THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD ACHIEVE
LATE DAY VALUES IN UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AS WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH
AND EAST OF THESE AREAS.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH ANY STEADIER MORNING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS EXITING
OUR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH TIME AND SKIES TRENDING PARTLY
SUNNY IN MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL ON BOARD SHOWING
REDEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCT/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN A
MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE LACKING HOWEVER, SO
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DISORGANZIED WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY REMAINING
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH, WITH PERHAPS
OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE SEASON ON TAP AS AFTERNOON 925 MB
TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE +20 TO +23C RANGE PER LATEST
NAM/GFS/EURO OUTPUT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S
FOR MOST SPOTS, WITH PERHAPS A FEW WARMER LOCALES IN THE BROADER
VALLEYS NEARING THE 90F MARK.  DEFINITELY A TIME TO CONSIDER DUSTING
OFF THE AIR CONDITIONERS AFTER A 9-MONTH HIATUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF FA FOR WARM/MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS FORECAST AREA
AS WELL AS OPPORTUNITIES FOR MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO RIDGE
AROUND THE PERIPERHY OF THE RIDGE. IT WILL BE MOIST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES OR GREATER TUES
NGT/WED BEFORE A NORTHERN WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WED NGT
THEN AGAIN PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES FRI NGT/SAT
BEFORE A MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT.

IT HAS BEEN VERY DRY AND ALTHOUGH NOT A WIDESPREAD NEEDED SOAKING
RAIN...WARM MOIST FLOW WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND A PERSISTENT
BOUNDARY ACROSS FORECAST AREA SHOULD GIVE SEVERAL CHANCES OF
BENEFICIAL RAINS...ALBEIT WHEN IT DOES RAIN IT MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE WARM WITH H925 TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. HOW HIGH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER.

THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME CLOSER IN LINE ON TIMING OF SYSTEMS
ALTHOUGH PARALLEL UPPER FLOW ALWAYS HAS A TRICK UP ITS SLEEVE. RIGHT
NOW...A WEAK DISTURBANCE FOLLOWING WARM FRONT TUE NGT/WED WILL BRING
ABOUT CHANCE SHOWERS...PERHAPS THUNDR TUE NGT WITH NORTHERN STREAM
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING AN EVENTUAL WASHED OUT FRONT ACROSS FA
WED FOR BETTER CHANCE OF TSTRMS. LINGERING BOUNDARY ON THU MAY BRING
ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTRMS THU THEN LOOKS DRY FOR FRI
AHEAD OF MORE SIGNFICANT NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE AND FRONT ON
SAT. BETTER DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY ON SAT MAY LEAD TO BETTER CHANCE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED MID CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WEST/SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS SUNDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS TOWARD 12Z MON.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MONDAY - THURSDAY...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 356 AM SUNDAY...FINE DEAD FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...AND WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THESE
FUELS TO BURN QUICKLY SHOULD ANY FIRES START. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW TODAY AS THEY WERE ON
SATURDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
BRISK FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO
30 MPH AT TIMES. THUS ANY FIRES THAT DO START ON SUNDAY WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BECOME
DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
FIRE WEATHER...JMG/RJS



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