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000
FXUS61 KBTV 311742
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
142 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANY OF THE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A
RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN DECENT
SHAPE. LINE OF T-STORMS HAS MOVED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. HAD
A GUST TO 36MPH HERE AT THE BURLINGTON AIRPORT. NOTED SOME OTHER
MESONET SITES WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE AS WELL. OTHERWISE
HAVEN`T HEARD OF ANY DAMAGE OR HAIL REPORTS. LOTS OF LIGHTNING THOUGH.

INSTABILITY IS REDEVELOPING OUT ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
ONTARIO, AND AS A RESULT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BUBBLING UP. SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAD
INDICATED THAT WE WOULD INDEED SEE THIS OCCUR, THOUGH AT THIS
POINT WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY OF THOSE TO GROW TO SEVERE
LEVELS. STILL IT`S COLD ALOFT, SO SMALL HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE.

I WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THOSE SHOWERS/T-STORMS DEVELOP IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS I MAY BE TOO AGRESSIVE IN LOWERING THE POPS FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON.

ONE OF THE REAL MESSY ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST ARE THE
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE STORMS, TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROP 10F, BUT
THEN START TO REBOUND AS THE SUN COMES BACK OUT. I THINK FOR THE
MOST PART, VERMONT AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURE
(BTV WAS 74 BEFORE THE RAIN), WHILE NEW YORK AREAS WILL PROBABLY
SEE THEIR HIGHS REACHED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE END, I LEFT
THE HIGHS ALONE -- UPPER 60S TO LOWER/MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...CONVECTION ENDS QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A
RESULT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON BOTH DAYS FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE PICTURE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN-BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES FOR A TIME...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. MIN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND
MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS...COOLING A BIT LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS VERMONT AT THIS TIME. THEY BRING A VERY BRIEF 10-15 MINUTE
PERIOD OF IFR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS. TRIED MY BEST
TO SHOW THE TIMING FOR MPV AND RUT. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST TRICK
FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPTURING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR T-STORMS. HAVE CARRIED VCSH FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY UP TO 20-22Z OR SO. MAY HAVE TO DO QUICK UPDATES
IF SOMETHING ELSE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPS AND HEADS FOR A TAF
LOCATION. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE VFR.

OVERNIGHT AM ANTICIPATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN VERMONT, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN TODAYS RAIN WHICH HAS MOISTENED THE GROUND. SHOULD SEE IFR
CONDITIONS AT SARANAC LAKE AND MONTPELIER FROM 07-12Z OR SO.
ALWAYS A QUESTION IF OTHER TAF LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME FOG AFTER
DAYTIME RAIN LIKE THIS. MOST OF THE TIME THEY DON`T, BUT SOMETIMES
SURPRISES HAPPEN THANKS TO SUCH LOCALIZED FEATURES THAT WE CAN`T
ADEQUATELY OBSERVE AND MEASURE.

AFTER ANY FOG, FRIDAY WILL FEATURE VFR. PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT WORTHY TO PLACE
MENTION INTO TAFS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NASH