Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 241910

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
310 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Widespread snow, rain or mixed precipitation will sag south tonight
while gradually lessening in coverage as today`s warm front is
pushed southward by building high pressure to our north. Mainly dry
weather will continue to build across the area on Saturday as
the front continues to settle southward. The front will return
north as a warm front on Sunday into Monday with a return of
widespread rain, snow or mixed precipitation expected.


As of 310 PM EDT Friday...The forecast remains on track for
tonight as an east to west oriented warm front across our area
trends stationary, then sags southward as a cold front in
response central Canada high pressure tracking eastward. The
drier more stable airmass should act to slowly shunt steadier
light rains/snows/mixed precipitation southward over time with
most areas trending mainly dry after midnight. Some light
additional snow accumulations will be possible in favored areas,
especially nc/ne VT this evening where thermal profiles will
remain cooler. Again, used latest RAP output for mid level
thermal profiles which is capturing the current 850-700 mb warm
nose quite nicely and would suggest precipitation north of a
Massena-Plattsburgh-St. Johnsbury line should largely remain
light snow. Have issued a Special Weather Statement highlighting
additional light snow potential into the evening hours. For
surface temperatures I leaned toward hourly LAMP output which
guided overnight minimums. Admittedly these values have some
uncertainty as despite the abundance of clouds the synoptic flow
will trend northerly after midnight and begin to usher in a
slightly colder low level airmass into northern counties on the
southern edge of aforementioned surface high. For now I`ve
offered values bottoming out in the upper 20s to around 30
north, and in the lower to perhaps mid 30s south.

On Saturday the cooler/drier airmass continues to slowly seep
southward our east-west oriented surface front sinks into central NY
into southern New England. Could still see some lingering light
rains/snows across our far southern counties in the morning as
the surface front stalls to our immediate south and weak ripples
of moisture track west-east along the boundary. All and all
conditions should be trending drier even here however with our
central/northern counties likely seeing partial to perhaps some
full sun by afternoon. Temperatures should generally range from
35 to 40 north and 40 to 45 east/south.

South edge of high pressure then continues across the area Saturday
night with our former front beginning to lift back slowly north
toward daybreak Sunday. Prior idea of clear to partly cloudy skies
for most of the night still appears reasonable with highest coverage
south. Lows should range from 10 to 20 north, and mid teens to lower
20s south.


As of 237 PM EDT Friday....Sunday and Sunday night look messy!
Hate that we`re still dealing with mixed precipitation for the
end of March. Sunday we will have warm air advection and some
light rain as warm front lifts North across our forecast area.
Temperatures will dip early during the overnight Sunday night,
then continue to warm through the overnight with general warm
air advection continuing. Pretty decent slug of precipitation
moves across our forecast area overnight and believe that we`ll
mainly have rain with some freezing rain east of the Green
mountains where the cold air tends to get stuck the longest.
Have leaned on the warmest guidance that I could find for Sunday
night, the BTV4 and blended with ConsShort. Then I used the
diurnal trend from ConsShort for temps and a GFS/NAM blend for
weather grids from mixed precipitation top down. Amount of QPF
that`s expected along with cold temps East of the Greens, can`t
rule out possibility of winter headlines at some point for
Sunday night into Monday.


As of 237 PM EDT Friday...Rain will continue through the first
part of the day on Monday as well as warm air advection which
should shut down icing east of the greens by later in the
morning. Monday afternoon and overnight the precipitation will
become more orographically enhanced. Another upper level
shortwave pushes across our area on Tuesday bringing more
chances for precipitation, mainly rain. Precipitation continues
into Tuesday night, mixing with some snow, before shutting down
Wednesday morning. Will finally have a bit of a drying trend for
Wednesday through Thursday night, but more chances for
precipitation towards the end of the week. Still a very
difficult p-type forecast for the beginning of the week with
rain-snow line remaining very close if not right across our
forecast area.


Through 18Z Saturday...IFR/MVFR conditions expected through 12Z
as widespread snow and/or mixed precipitation associated with a
stalling warm front traverse the area. Steadier precipitation
will tend to settle south after 05Z as front sags southward with
most terminals trending precipitation-free after 12Z Saturday.
Winds variable 5 to 15 knots south to southeasterly (easterly at
KMSS), trending northerly after midnight. After 12Z Saturday
cigs should begin to transition to VFR from north to south as
Canadian high pressure begins to nose southward into the area.

Outlook 18Z Saturday through Tuesday...

18Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday...trending mainly VFR
/precipitation-free as Canadian high pressure noses briefly
southward into the area.

12Z Sunday through 12Z Tuesday...widespread mixed precipitation
and/or rain return to the region.

12Z Tuesday onward...light and spotty mixed precipitation
transitions toward a period of steadier rains.




LONG TERM...Neiles
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