Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 172338
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
638 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THE VALLEY FLOOR THROUGH
TOMORROW, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND
DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 624 PM EST WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS OF
EARLY EVENING. LATEST KCXX VWP DATA NOW SHOWING WINDS STARTING TO
BODILY TREND NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT AS SYNOPTIC FLOW RESPONDS
TO DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF TO OUR EAST. EXPECTING SFC
FLOW TO RESPOND SHORTLY...AFTER WHICH BROAD-SCALE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SOUTHWARD AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT SHOULD ALLOW LIGHT
RAINS/SNOWS TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE AREA...ESP NORTH LATER TONIGHT.
NO REAL COLD AIR AROUND HOWEVER SO DESPITE WIND SHIFT NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S STILL LOOK REASONABLE FOR MOST SPOTS
OVERNIGHT. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED, MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY IS SEEING A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW NORTHWEST
OF THE CWA FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING IS TRANSFERRING ENERGY TO A
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THIS NEW LOW
STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING AND BEGINS TO TRACK NORTH TOWARD THE BAY
OF FUNDY PRECIPITATION WILL FILL BACK IN AND TRANSITION FROM RAIN
TO SNOW AS THERMAL PROFILES COOL ON DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION. INITIALLY, PRECIP WILL BE RATHER WIDESPREAD
BUT BECOME MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND
WITH FROUDE NUMBERS OFF OUR LOCALLY RUN 4KM WRF INDICATING SUB-
CRITICAL TO BLOCKED FLOW. OVERALL QPF ISN`T TOO TREMENDOUS THOUGH
SO THINKING A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE VALLEY FLOOR,
WITH UP TO 4" ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
IT`S SLOW TREK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY THURSDAY
MORNING TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THE VALLEY FLOOR WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW, THE CLIMO FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCALES ALONG THE NORTHERN GREENS
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OF SNOW. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO THIN AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD END BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH LIKELY A NOTABLE
CLEARING LINE IN THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AND WE SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST
CLEAR NIGHT IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS, WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. MIN TEMPS WILL SEE THE MID TEENS
TO MID 20S THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN S-SW FLOW...INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S IN
THE VALLEYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE SW FLOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING, BUT KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT
AT SOME POINT CHRISTMAS EVE, AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO OUR
NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOURS. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
THURSDAY BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOSTLY MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR OVERNIGHT WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM 06-15Z. MPV/SLK
WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY. GREATEST CHANCES AT BTV FROM 07-15Z...MSS 06-10Z...AND
RUT 07-11Z. PBG WILL BE LEAST AFFECTED WITH ONLY MINOR
REDUCTIONS...IF ANY AT ALL...EXPECTED. SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY
AFTER 15Z ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD, SHIFTING WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRI-12Z FRI...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

12Z FRI-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...MUCCILLI


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