


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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333 FXUS61 KBTV 160646 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 246 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure and sunshine will remain in place today, though wildfire smoke will likely keep conditions hazy. The heat and humidity continue through tomorrow, but a cold front will finally put an end to it tomorrow night. The front will cause scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 241 AM EDT Wednesday...A warm and humid night is continuing but with calm winds and clear skies, temperatures have been able to drop back slightly more than forecast. While most areas are in the 60s to around 70, the coldest hollows have been able to fall back into the upper 50s. Ridging will continue through today and keep conditions dry, though it will also keep very little flow around. This lack of flow has been helping the wildfire smoke linger and the newer guidance now keeps it in place for much of the day. With plenty of sunshine and the warmest part of the airmass overhead, today will be the hottest day of the week. Highs will be in the mid 80s to mid 90s, and with high humidity, heat index values will generally range between the upper 80s and upper 90s. A prefrontal trough moves through tonight and early tomorrow morning, bringing a round of showers. As a surface low and its associated frontal system approach, flow will increase and it should be able to advect out the wildfire smoke. The nocturnal passage of the trough should prevent any severe risk, but with flow still being on the slower side, the flash flood potential cannot be completely ruled out. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 241 AM EDT Wednesday...The timing of the cold front continues to speed up, with its passage now likely tomorrow afternoon and evening. A few lingering clouds and showers from the prefrontal trough are likely tomorrow morning, before some clearing looks to occur in the afternoon. The earlier passage will likely increase the severe risk a little, as it now passes around peak diurnal heating in many areas. HREF mean surface CAPE is slightly above 1,000 J and mean 0-6 KM shear is generally between 25-30 KTs. The frontal passage and close proximity to the surface low will provide decent synoptic forcing, and CAMs are starting to show a broken line passing through tomorrow afternoon. Ingredients will be in place for heavy rainfall with high PWATs and a large warm cloud depth. Storm motion could be on the slower side but the storms generally look to move fast enough to prevent much of a flash flooding risk, but it still cannot be ruled out. There looks to be a brief window of gusty synoptic winds around the time of the frontal passage tomorrow afternoon and evening, particularly over parts of northern New York. With efficient mixing during this time, gusts between 20-30 mph look possible. Behind the front, there is finally a significant airmass change. Dew points drop rapidly Thursday night and much cooler air advects into the region. Highs on Friday will be in the 70s and dew points will be in the 50s for most places, though dew points will even fall into the upper 40s in a few areas. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 241 AM EDT Wednesday...We`ll start out the weekend with beautiful weather as high pressure settles over the region. Highs will be near or just a bit above normal for mid July, and dewpoints will remain comfortably in the 50s. Precipitation chances increase for Sunday however; an upper shortwave trough will scoot through zonal flow aloft while a frontal system pushes eastward through the Great Lakes. Don`t anticipate a complete washout though, and a warm layer at mid levels should limit thunder potential. The system will remain pretty progressive and exit to our east fairly quickly, allowing high pressure to take hold again for the start of the work week. Temperatures will stay close to normal next week, though there are some indications we could start to see another warming trend toward midweek. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06z Thursday...Most terminals to remain VFR through the period. The exception will be localized IFR in patchy fog 06z-12z. KSLK has already seen IFR/LIFR conditions early this morning, and KMPV/KEFK may also occasionally drop to IFR in fog. Otherwise, some slight visibility reductions in haze are possible through 18z Wed; no significant weather expected thereafter. Skies will remain FEW-SCT AOA 5000 ft outside of any fog. Light and variable winds through 14z Wed, mainly terrain- driven, will trend toward south 5 to 10 kt thereafter. Outlook... Thursday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .CLIMATE... The current forecast highs for Tuesday and especially Wednesday will be within a few degrees of daily record highs, which are listed below. July 16: KBTV: 96/2018 KMPV: 92/1969 KPBG: 95/1969 KMSS: 94/2018 KSLK: 90/1997 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ001-002-005-009-021. NY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ026>028-035-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Myskowski NEAR TERM...Myskowski SHORT TERM...Myskowski LONG TERM...Hastings AVIATION...Hastings CLIMATE...WFO BTV