Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 162121
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
421 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017
Above average temperatures will persist through the week. High
pressure along the Mid-Atlantic Coast will move east into the
Atlantic overnight as a cold front approaches from the west. The
cold front and associated moisture will be in the area Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Unsettled weather will close out the week
into the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Although conditions have improved slightly...wedge conditions
remain entrenched across the Midlands with the CSRA just
outside the wedge enjoying sunny skies. With the clouds
temperatures across the Midlands remain in the mid 50s to around
60...however in the CSRA where skies are mostly clear
temperatures are in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Current satellite
imagery shows breaks in the clouds in the Midlands so expect
the wedge to continue slowly eroding through the afternoon with
temperatures across the Midlands warming several more degrees.
Clouds will return early tonight as an inversion develops and
light southeasterly flow keeps plenty of moisture in place.
Expect another round of low clouds and fog to develop early
tonight and continue through the sunrise hours Tuesday morning.
With the extensive lower clouds overnight lows tonight will
generally be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure aloft over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico reasserts itself
over The Midlands and CSRA during the middle of the week for the
middle of the week for temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above
climatology. We can expect areas of late night and early morning
fog and a chance of showers in the northern Midlands Tuesday Night
near a stationary front.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A very active southern branch of jet stream will push two systems
into the Southeast U.S. late this week into early next week. The
first system arrives Thursday Night into Friday with the second
system forecast for Sunday into Monday. Expect unsettled weather
and for the most part above normal temperatures during this time
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Restrictions expected to dominate much of the TAF period for
CAE/CUB/OGB...with restrictions tonight into Tuesday morning at
IFR CIGS remain over CAE/CUB/OGB with VFR conditions at AGS/DNL
through 00Z. Main concern for the period will be the overnight hours
as an inversion develops and with low level moisture in place
and light easterly flow. Confidence is high for fog and stratus
redeveloping with IFR/LIFR at all sites overnight into Tuesday
morning. Should see condition improving to MVFR around 17/15Z
then VFR for the afternoon as the wedge breaks and winds become
southwest around 10 knots.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Showers and associated restrictions
possible Tuesday night through Friday.