Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 101737

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1237 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2016

Cold high pressure over the area will shift off the coast Sunday
allowing temperatures to begin to moderate. Rain chances will
increase early next week as a cold front moves into the region.


Broad upper trough crossing the eastern CONUS this afternoon...with
the upper flow becoming zonal tonight. Cold ridge of surface high
pressure over the region will reach the Mid-Atlantic coast by
morning. Air mass remains dry and unseasonably cold. Afternoon
temperatures expected to peak in the mid 40s to around 50 degree
range under sunny skies.

Potential for radiational cooling tonight with clear skies and
light surface winds. Models suggest boundary layer winds
increasing by Sunday morning with clouds increasing from the south
as isentropic lift begins. Stayed close to MOS temperature
guidance with lows in the low to mid 20s...10 degrees below


An approaching cold front will draw up moisture, clouds and slightly
warmer temperatures on Sunday.  This front will bring a chance of
showers as it moves across the region late Sunday Night into Monday.

The front stalls across The Midlands and CSRA Monday Night into
Tuesday as the flow aloft becomes parallel to the surface front`s
orientation. A disturbance moving along the frontal boundary will
lead to a better chance of showers Monday Night into Tuesday.
Temperatures will be above climatology for mid December both days.


Scattered showers will likely linger into Wednesday as the surface
front is slow to push offshore.  The Southeast U.S. will be in a
fast moving northwest flow aloft during the latter half of next week
as a deep upper low parks itself over the Northeast U.S.
Temperatures will be well below normal Thursday and Friday before
moderating on Saturday as high pressure aloft over the eastern Gulf
of Mexico builds northward.


VFR conditions through Sunday morning.

Clear skies this afternoon into the early morning hours as dry high
pressure builds across the region. Models indicate low clouds with
bases above 3000 feet moving into the TAF sites from the south
after 09Z as moisture increases. Winds will be east to northeast
5 knots or less.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...IFR and/or MVFR ceilings and visbilities will be possible Sunday
Night through early Wednesday in scattered showers and/or fog with a
stalled frontal boundary overhead.




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