Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KCAE 251331
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
831 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND FRIDAY THEN
EXIT OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL RETURN LATE
SATURDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF
COAST STATES AND MOVES NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BUILD EAST INTO OUR
AREA TODAY. WE CAN EXPECT CLEARING SKIES THIS MORNING AS A
WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. BREEZY
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STRONG NET
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMING ANCHORED OVER THE AREA. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY FRIDAY...WITH SOME MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
BEGINNING TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. HIGHS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AGAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND DEGREE
OF CLOUD COVER. FORECASTED LOWS IN THE MID 30S NORTH MIDLANDS TO
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE CSRA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALOFT AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO BRING
GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. AT THE SURFACE SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE MAY
BE ABLE TO MOVE INLAND DURING THE DAY. MODELS BEGIN TRYING TO
BRING RAINFALL TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
DAY. THE DEEP MOISTURE RETURN MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY EARLY IN THE
DAY...THEN EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY.

FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE LONGER RANGE MODELS...
GFS40/ECMWF...ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN. MAIN UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY...BRINGING GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL BE PUSHING
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CWA SUNDAY...WITH A POSSIBLE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH...THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING
RAINFALL FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THOUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS...WE
INDICATED LIKELY POPS. KEPT CHANCE POPS TO THE EAST THROUGH THAT
PERIOD. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH TUESDAY...DRIER AIR WILL
TRY TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...THEN
FALL BACK DOWN TO NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED TO THE COAST THIS MORNING AND ALL TAF SITES
REMAIN VFR. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME SCATTERED BY MIDDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. WESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUST NEAR
20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL
BECOME CALM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
STALLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS YIELDED
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. MAIN-STEM RIVERS HAVE
RESPONDED TO THE HEAVY RAIN. ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM AMOUNTS WERE A
LITTLE LOWER THAN ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A FEW RIVERS MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED
FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.