Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 311007
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
607 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN
SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 07Z COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF SOUTH CAROLINA...TO CENTRAL GEORGIA. A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LATEST RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST WEAKENING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING.

UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WITH BROAD TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
EAST COAST. TROUGH AMPLIFIES TODAY...WILL PUSH WEAK FRONT TOWARD
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MODELS SUGGEST FRONT BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/COASTAL PLAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. AIR MASS NEAR THE FRONT WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND
WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THAT REGION. DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIMIT CONVECTION TO THE WEST.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER...SO LOWERED POPS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. MOS CONSENSUS COOL BIAS TO RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
WITH LIMITED COLD ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT. SO TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...REDUCED POPS CENTRAL AND
WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. SLIGHTLY COOLER TONIGHT
     MOS LOW TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE
BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING.
THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST. SUNDAY APPEARS
DRIER SO REDUCED POPS...SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF AREA WITH
FRONT/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY LIKELY NEAR COAST AND AIR MASS DRY AND
CAPPED. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS EXPANDS EASTWARD AND A WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS HELD TOGETHER OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD CAE/CUB. AS
SUCH HAVE ADJUSTED TO INCLUDE MENTION AT CAE/CUB...WITH GREATEST
IMPACTS AT CUB. SHOWERS WILL TRACK TOWARD OGB...LIKELY DISSIPATING
BEFORE REACHING THE TAF SITE. PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AROUND
AGS/OGB WITH MAINLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS THUS FAR AND POTENTIAL FOR
IFR AROUND SUNRISE. EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNRISE WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD VFR. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MAINLY AT CAE/CUB/OGB...HOWEVER
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AT 7 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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