Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 282324
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
724 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical storm bonnie off the south coast of South Carolina will
move slowly northwest toward the coast overnight. The storm is
expected to make landfall Sunday morning. The storm is expected to
move very slowly northeast along the coast through Monday night. Chances
of rain will increase over the area through Sunday the lower for
Monday and Tuesday. Potential exists for locally heavy rainfall
through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Tropical storm Bonnie remains well offshore with satellite
imagery showing a large area of convection on the northwest side.
Convection has increased near the center of the storm. The storm
may strengthen slightly tonight as the storm moves over the Gulf
Stream.

The heaviest rain this afternoon has remained in the low country
although radar estimates up to 0.75 inch in the far eastern
Midlands. Radar continues to show mainly light rain spreading
west/northwest into the Eastern Midlands...with a few areas of
enhanced convection along the leading edge/outflow...where gusty
winds have been reported to near 30 knots.

Latest High resolution models suggest a lull in the showers across
the Midlands this evening. However expect moisture flux and
isentropic lift may increase late tonight...especially by 09z so
will continue forecast of increasing pops overnight from east to
west. Highest pops in the East Midlands. Heavy rain possible but
more likely after 12z Sunday. With limited instability
thunderstorms will remain isolated. Gusty winds possible in
convection...stronger gradient winds possible late tonight with
approaching storm. Overnight lows in the middle to upper 60s on
track.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TD2 should be moving onshore south of Charleston during the
morning on Sunday before slowing the system down significantly through
the late morning just after landfall. The forecast track then begins
to push it more north/northeast parallel to the coast into sunday
night. The models all bring plenty of moisture into the region by
Sunday morning, especially in areas just to the north of the
track. This will bring plenty of showers and isolated storms to
the eastern half of the cwa. Expect to see some wraparound
moisture to possibly making it back towards the csra through the
day also. Storm total QPF amounts of between 1 to 3 inches with
isolated higher amounts will be possible across the eastern
Midlands, Pee Dee, and Catawba areas. Across the Western Midlands
and much of the CSRA, expecting up to an inch, with isolated
higher amounts. Biggest issues should revolve around urban and
small stream flooding potential more than anything. As the low
pushes northeast of the cwa Sunday night into Monday, the rain
chances will decrease. However still expect to see at least a
slight chance of a shower through the remainder of the period.

Temperatures on Sunday will be tricky. With plenty of cloud cover
and rainfall, temperatures may struggle to get out of the 70s for
many areas. Areas outside of the rainfall may be able to actually
climb into the 80s. Readings return a little closer to normal for
Sunday night through Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models have come into a little better agreement on a deep trough
moving from west to east toward the end of next week into next weekend.
Will continue with the diurnal trend of isolated to scattered
afternoon shower and thunderstorm through much of next week, with
increasing rain chances late in the period just ahead of the next
cold front. Have stayed close to current forecast which is for
temperatures to remain generally at or slightly above normal
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through this evening. High confidence of
MVFR after 06z through Sunday

Tropical Storm Bonnie off the south coast of South Carolina will
move very slowly toward the coast overnight. Area of MVFR
ceilings/visibility remains along the coast early this evening. As
moisture flux increases overnight expect ceilings to lower to MVFR
across the region. Areas of showers/possibly heavy toward 12z
Sunday. Widespread rain with embedded heavier showers during the
day Sunday will result in continued restrictions. IFR possible but
confidence remains low on timing. Gusty winds possible in any
stronger convection...and gradient winds will likely increase by
Sunday afternoon...northwest to northeast 10 to 20 knots with
gusts to 25 knots. Stronger winds possible near the OGB terminal.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions probable in showers and
possible thunderstorms continuing through Monday as the tropical
system moves very slowly northeastward along the coast.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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