Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 080302
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1002 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT WILL BE
WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY. THE COLD AIR MASS BEHIND
THIS FRONT WILL DOMINATE DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
IT WILL BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTING FARTHER
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. FOLLOWED THE GFS LAMP FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE E CONUS MON/MON NIGHT.
INDICATIONS OF A QUICK MOVING FRONT PASSING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE.
ACCEPTED THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. MODELS MAINTAIN HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN WITH RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST. NW FLOW ALOFT
TO MAINTAIN A FEED OF COOL DRY AIR FOR OUR REGION. A REINFORCING
DRY COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES TUE AND WED. SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING MIN TEMPS IN THE TEENS LATE WEEK. FOR NOW...USED
GUIDANCE BLEND...WHICH PROVIDE LOW 20S THU MORNING. LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE PREMISE FOR SOME UPPER ENERGY AND ANOTHER FRONT
LATE FRI INTO SAT...THOUGH MOISTURE WOULD APPEAR TO BE LIMITED.
WILL MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.

STRONG LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED.
ONLY A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN CURRENT TAF ISSUANCE. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE WINDS
REMAINING AROUND 5 KNOTS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER
DAYBREAK AND THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MIXING COMBINED WITH A DRY
AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE A FOG THREAT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WILL
PROMOTE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TUESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THRU
WED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99


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