Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 271504
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1104 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Fair and warm conditions will be the general rule through early
to mid next week. A weak front, with limited moisture, will
traverse the forecast area late today/tonight, with fair and
warming conditions expected Friday into the weekend. A weak dry
front moving through late Sunday/early Monday will reinforce
continued dry conditions early to mid next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IR and water vapor imagery both show well defined upper ridging
across the western US, and deep trough across the eastern US.
A weak upper level shortwave moving through eastern Tennessee and
into western North Carolina is bringing some light rains to the
central Appalachians. This activity will continue to track off to
the east/northeast through the afternoon, with most activity
remaining light. Airmass across the cwa remains somewhat dry, with
pwat values now up around 1 inch. Moisture should continue to
slowly increase in advance of an approaching cold front. However
the upper support will be north of the area as the front moves
closer, and expect mostly dry conditions to prevail through
tonight across the area. exception may be across the extreme
northern counties of Lancaster and Chesterfield, where some very
light rainfall may occur late this afternoon and early tonight.
As for temperatures, with a good amount of sunshine and southerly
wind pattern for most area, temperatures this afternoon should be
able to reach into the mid to upper 70s. Forecast remains on
track. For lows tonight, readings should moderate slightly from
previous nights. Overnight readings in the upper 50s expected.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Behind the weak front/trough, surface high pressure will shift
into the region late Friday into the weekend. Upper trough over
the E CONUS will lift to the north some, with upper ridge center
shifting east along the Gulf coast, providing a continued dry WNW
to NW flow aloft for our area. With building upper heights over
our FA and main nearly zonal upper flow well to our north, along
with some h85 downslope flow, well above normal temps expected.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Models continue to indicate a dry front moving through the area
Sunday night/early Monday. High pressure center to ridge down the
eastern seaboard, and also indicate a building upper ridge over
the SE CONUS, ensuring dry conditions. Some cooler air to enter
the region behind the front, but still above normal temps
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected to continue through the period. Some
scattered mid and high level cloudiness moving across the region,
and this will continue ahead of a weak upper shortwave and surface
cold front. Most areas remaining dry, but can not rule out an
isolated shower north of the terminals late this afternoon and
early this evening. Activity should not impact any of the local
terminals through the period. Winds out of the south to southwest
this afternoon and tonight. Speeds between 5 and 10 knots this
afternoon, then diminishing this evening to less than 5 knots. At
this point patchy fog may become possible at the usual fog prone
sites early Friday morning, but confidence not high enough to
warrant placing in tafs at this time.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
No impacts to aviation expected at this time.