Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 250713
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
313 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO THE EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND
WEAKEN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED INTO THE WEEKEND AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE NC/SC STATE LINE
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT BEFORE
STALLING JUST SOUTH OF OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL HOLD ON TO SOME CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH 06Z THEN CARRY A DRY FORECAST FOR ALL BUT THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY FALL OVERNIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST AS A FLAT
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST
ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL BE WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THE
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
EAST MIDLANDS NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE AREA. CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH WEAKER
FORCING. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. PREFER WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A
GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THEN MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL COOL INTO THE 80S TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT AGS AND OGB THIS MORNING.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING.
MODELS INDICATE A VERY SLOW MOVEMENT IN BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA HAVE REDEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN/EASTERN MIDLANDS. FOG THREAT EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT OF RAIN THAT MAY OCCUR AT THE
TERMINALS AND EXTENT OF ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER...BUT GUIDANCE
LEANING TOWARDS SOME MVFR FOG AT AGS AND OGB SO WILL MENTION. SOME
CU WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN PORTION
OF THE AREA. WILL ALSO CARRY A VCSH AT OGB AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL NEARLY STALL ACROSS THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. EXPECT BEST CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION ALONG/SOUTH OF I-20.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MINIMAL CONVECTION EXPECTED SAT/SUN.
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
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