Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 271136
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
636 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND
AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AND A SERIES OF
FRONT PUSHING CLOSE TO THE AREA...WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO ERODE THE LOWER CLOUDS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE LOWER CLOUDS
DISSIPATING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND EXPECT SKIES TO PARTIALLY CLEAR
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS IN THE WESTERN MIDLANDS BUT A BAND OF
CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS HAVE HELPED KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK BUT AS THE CLEARING OCCURS THEY SHOULD DROP
A BIT. PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND ADDED SOME
FOG TO THE WEATHER GRIDS.

BROAD CYCLONIC 500MB FLOW BECOMES GENERALLY ZONAL TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND PWAT VALUES
AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH...THEREFORE NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL AGAIN TODAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE MID
40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO MID 50S CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS. DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT AND LOWS AGAIN FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S AND LIMITED BY INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A 1044MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CAD WEDGE CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT DUE TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP THE SHALLOW
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW NEAR SURFACE LAYER. SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE AND BRINGS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE REMAINING OPERATIONAL
MODELS MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION BUT STILL UNCERTAINTY AND LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER...IF SOME
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS SOME
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THIS SCENARIO AT THIS TIME AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50
BUT WILL BE CUTTING THOSE NUMBERS A FEW DEGREES DUE TO DEVELOPING
WEDGE CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM LOWER
30S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A TRANSITION FROM THE PERSISTENT
COLD WEATHER WE HAVE ENDURED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS TO A
WARMING PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY.

THE RELATIVELY FLAT FLOW UPPER PATTERN EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL
ALLOW A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TO MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND PUSH A
FRONT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT UPPER HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
ON TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM RIDGING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND WE SHOULD SEE QUITE THE WARM UP. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS SURGE INTO THE 70S. THE
WEATHER MAY REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS WAVES OF
ENERGY MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW IMPACTING THE REGION BUT THESE
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME AND NOT HANDLED
WELL BY THE MODELS SO WHILE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE
ENTIRE TIME.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY ON
WEDNESDAY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT STRONG...WARM
AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY CREATING
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND MUCH WARMER TEMPS THAN WE HAVE OBSERVED IN
QUITE A WHILE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH. IN
FACT...CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER BUT MAINLY TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINGERING SCT TO BKN CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION WITH BASES
GENERALLY AROUND 040. SOME REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS DUE TO FOG
POSSIBLE WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR IN THE NEAR TERM.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR NW WILL SHIFT EAST
SLIGHTLY TODAY. N TO NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WEDGE CONDITIONS AND A SLOW MOVING FRONT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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