Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 021629
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1229 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AND SURFACE TROUGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE INTO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PLUS
HEATING. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW INCREASING SHEAR AHEAD OF AN H85 JET.
THE NAM IS MOST PRONOUNCED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH H85 WINDS
INCREASING TO 40 KNOTS TONIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY A BOW ECHO
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE JET. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR SUGGEST A WELL
ORGANIZED AREA OF STORMS WITH BOW TYPE FEATURES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WIND MAY OCCUR. THE H85 JET MAY
HELP MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE OF THE STABILIZING EFFECTS
OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO JUST OVER
2 INCHES INDICATES EXCESSIVE RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS AND
STRONG HEATING SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE MOST
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. CLOUDINESS AND MIXING
SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. USED THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...MAINLY IN THE LOWER
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. FLAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES AND GLFMEX WILL BEGIN TO FORCE THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH NORTHWARD. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A THREAT OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION EACH DAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 90 TO 95 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THE REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVERGENCE INTO A SURFACE TROUGH PLUS UPPER TROUGHING WILL HELP
SUPPORT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT
GREATEST COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND H85 JET.
RADAR TRENDS WITH CONVECTION WELL UPSTREAM AND HRRR TRENDS WOULD
SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY THUNDERSTORM TIMING AROUND 22Z AT AGS AND
DNL...AND 00Z AT CAE...CUB...AND OGB. STILL DID NOT EXPLICITLY
FORECAST THUNDERSTORMS AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME BECAUSE OF TOO MUCH
TIMING UNCERTAINTY BUT WE HAVE INCLUDED A VICINITY MENTION. AN
AREA OF WELL ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND
AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL JET MAY OCCUR DURING MUCH OF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE OF THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF PREVIOUS
CONVECTION.

SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAY BE CLOSE TO MEETING
THE LLWS CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...
AND PERIODS OF MORNING FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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