Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 150834

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
334 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

A dry front across the northern and western portions of the
forecast area will dissipate later this morning. High pressure
will then prevail today and Saturday. Increasing Gulf moisture
will bring a chance for rain early next week ahead of another
cold front.


Early this morning...A weak front in the northern portion of the
area extending into the Upstate will dissipate this morning. Low
pressure over the Upstate will toward the coast. High
cloudiness associated with an upper-level jet will continue
over the region. Fog will not occur because of the very dry
near- surface layer. The temperature forecast is on track.
Expect lows generally in the mid to upper 30s.

Today...Weak low pressure along the coast will move
northeastward away from the area today as a shortwave trough
moves into the southeastern CONUS. Surface high pressure will
begin to build into the area from the southwest. Airmass will
remain relatively dry over the area with no precipitation
expected. High cloudiness will continue over the area through
the day. High temperatures are forecast in the lower 50s to
around 60.


A weak short wave will move through the region overnight
tonight, but with limited moisture to work with, only expect to
have partly cloudy skies as cirrus moves through the area. Weak
trough will be south of the cwa, with high pressure beginning to
build into the area for Saturday. Models showing the center of
the high pushing off the coast Saturday night into Sunday.
Dry weather is expected tonight into Sunday.

Near normal temperatures in the middle to upper 50s Saturday
will warm slightly for Sunday with with highs in the upper 50s
to lower 60s. Nighttime lows will be in the upper 20s to lower


with the surface high pushing offshore Sunday night, moisture on
the backside of the high will be returning to the region from
the Gulf of Mexico. Models have slowed slightly on the timing
for the return of rainfall, seeming to hold off until late
Sunday night. Once the rain returns, it should linger across the
area through Tuesday night. Final pops and rainfall amounts will
be highly dependent upon where the surface front will stall out
early next week. Models seem to indicate that a stronger cold
front will cross the region Tuesday night, and with a return to
dry weather Wednesday and Thursday.

Temperatures should be warmer than normal with highs in the 60s
Monday and Tuesday. Expect to see highs near normal in the
upper 50s to lower 60s Wednesday and Thursday.


High confidence in VFR conditions at all terminals throughout
the 24-hr TAF period.

A shortwave trough will push low pressure along the coast
northeastward today. High pressure will build into the area from
the southwest tonight. Satellite imagery shows cirrus clouds
moving over the area which will continue through the day. Cigs
will remain VFR with heights above 15kft. Clouds will be on the
decrease tonight due to downslope flow in the wake of the low.
Light and variable to calm winds will continue early this
morning, but no fog expected with large dewpoint depressions.
Winds will pick up again after 15z from the west around 10

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts expected.




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