Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 011948
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
248 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT. IT WILL BECOME WINDY
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY POSTED FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING 900 PM...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...

INCREASING WARM ADVECTION RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON...IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOST
AREAS...HOWEVER CLOUDS INCREASING TO THE WEST ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
INTO THE UPSTATE WHERE MOISTURE ADVECTION STRONGER. THE MOISTURE
FLUX WILL SHIFT EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP MAINLY IN THE PIEDMONT AND CSRA EARLY THIS
EVENING. SOUTH WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH THROUGH
AFTERNOON.

EXPECTING RAIN TO BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
AND INCREASING WINDS. SMALL CHANCE OF RAINFALL FROM AROUND
SUNSET THROUGH JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THEN MODELS INDICATE STRONG
MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FAST
MOVING SYSTEM SO QPF NOT TOO HIGH WITH HEAVIER RAIN IN THE
UPSTATE. CATEGORICAL POPS ON TRACK LATE TONIGHT...THE DECREASING
POPS DURING THE MORNING AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA BY
15Z...EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z. MODELS ALSO INDICATE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...NOTE SHOWALTER INDEX AROUND -1. WILL MENTION
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST. QUITE A BIT OF DRYING WILL
OCCUR BY THE AFTERNOON. BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY APPEARS TO
BE THE STRONG WIND POTENTIAL. BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS SHOWING VERY
STRONG LOW- LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WITH
GOOD MIXING/COLD ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT...THE MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO
THE SURFACE FROM THE JET WILL CAUSE SUSTAINED WINDS OF OVER 20
MPH...WITH WIND GUSTS TO OVER 30 MPH...FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

MODERATELY MILD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES PROBABLY FALLING INTO THE
40S BY LATE AFTERNOON DUE TO DEVELOPING COLD ADVECTION. MOS
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRENDING LOWER MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND
EXPECT WINDS TO INITIALLY BE QUITE BREEZY ACROSS THE CWA AND
ESPECIALLY ON THE AREA LAKES. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES
MONDAY NIGHT...THE WINDS WILL FALL BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS BY MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THEN
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND
SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER HAVING TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL
TONIGHT AND FOR PORTIONS OF MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
AND THE RAIN CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND SURFACE FRONT.
CHILLY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WINDS DECREASE
AND ALSO AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST/CAROLINAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LONGER TERM
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH THE POSSIBLE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH FROM
THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. STILL SEEMS TO BE LITTLE CONSISTENCY
IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL RAINFALL PATTERN AND TIMING FROM RUN TO
RUN BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN. 12Z RUNS OF ALL 3 MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TO SPEED UP THE SYSTEM AND NOT ALLOWING THE NORTHERN/SRN
STREAMS TO PHASE AND DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE THAT INTENSIFIES ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HAVE CHANGED VERY LITTLE IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD DUE TO THE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY. THE MODELS STILL TRY
TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION THROUGH ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER THE
LATEST TREND IS TO KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE SOUTH/EAST AND ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...REALLY NOT CHANGES AT THIS
TIME..WILL ADJUST AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. AT THIS
TIME THE PRECIP FOR THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY
WILL BE RAINFALL. THEN FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW
BEGINNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...THEN WORKING ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FALLING TO AROUND FREEZING...AND WITH VERY COLD CORE OF
TEMPERATURES ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS AT
THIS TIME INDICATE MUCH OF THE COLUMN BELOW FREEZING...WITH SOME
MOISTURE IN THE BEST SNOW GROWTH REGION...SO AS THE COLUMN COOLS
OVERNIGHT...RAIN COULD CHANCE TO RAIN/SNOW...THEN ALL SNOW. IT IS
WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP OVERNIGHT IS ONLY
AROUND 20 PERCENT AT THIS TIME...AND QPF AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT.
THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE HAS A LARGE SPREAD IN BOTH POPS AND
TEMPS THAT FAR OUT...WHICH IS ONE OF THE REASONS FOR THE LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. ALSO THIS SYSTEM IS 5 DAYS OUT...SO MUCH CAN
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED BY 04Z.

SOUTH FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTENING AT LOW LEVELS AND LOWER VFR
CIGS EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING. INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN THIS
EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING BY
04Z-06Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AND
VISIBILITIES IN RAINFALL ARE ALSO FORECAST TO DROP DOWN TO MVFR.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBILITY OF IFR CEILINGS AFTER 09Z BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. WINDS SOUTH 10 TO
20 KNOTS...SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST-WEST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS OR HIGHER POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH DAY
MONDAY. COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TERMINALS BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...15Z...WITH WEST-NORTHWEST 20 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30
KTS OR HIGHER AND BECOMING VFR RAPIDLY BEHIND FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$
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