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000
FXUS64 KCRP 302350 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
550 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOWER CLOUD LAYER OVER THE GULF MUCH OF THE DAY HAS MOVED
INTO THE COASTAL BEND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERED
TO MORE EASTERLY. EXPECT LOWER END MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT WESTWARD AND REACH LRD AROUND 04Z. IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER
TO REACH THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE MVFR CIGS REACHING VCT AREA
AROUND 09Z. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD FROM 09-10Z UNTIL 15-16Z WHEN
IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL BEND INTO THE
SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 30 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. BEST LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE FIELD WILL BE OVER THE BRUSH
COUNTRY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTHWEST OF A
LAREDO TO BEEVILLE LINE SATURDAY. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CIGS
SHOULD LIFT/IMPROVE TO AROUND 2500 FEET OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO PART OF THE EVENING. LATEST RAP AND NAM
GUIDANCE INDICATES WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TO JUSTIFY A SCA. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND BARRIER ISLANDS AS
CURRENT TEMPS ARE ALREADY AT OR BELOW PREVIOUSLY FORECAST MINS.
NO OTHER CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE MADE AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS ON AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. PWATS NOW BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.2 INCHES OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE IS STILL CONFINED TO THE LOWEST
LAYERS AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT TO
MOISTEN. THIS IS THE REASON CLOUDS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN ANTICIPATED
TODAY...JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN MEXICO OVERCAST SKIES ARE NOTED
ON VIS SATELLITE...BUT AS THEY HAVE TRIED TO PUSH EASTWARD...MUCH
OF THE CLOUD COVER HAS DISSIPATED. STILL EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
TOMORROW. SOME MODELS DO INDICATE CLEARING FOR EASTERN COUNTIES
TOMORROW MORNING...BUT LEANING MORE TOWARD THE CLOUDY SOLUTIONS.
RAIN WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO PUSH EASTWARD...HAVE SLOWED POP
INCREASES A BIT TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN
MAINLY IN WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PASSES...AND NOSE OF UPPER JET INCHES IN. THIS PERIOD IS
WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE NOTED...AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT MAINLY MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
CLOUD COVER KEEPING MIN TEMPS INTO THE 50S BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT. THINK HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS/ECMWF THAT
AN UPPER SYSTEM WL MOVE ACRS THE PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD AND CONTRIBUTE TO A COLD FRONT ACRS THE CWA/MSA SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL PWAT
VALUES (GFS DETERMINISTIC)...AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS (GFS
DETERMINISTIC) TO GENERATE AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MSA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
AFTER FROPA. ANTICIPATE THAT PCPN WL CONTINUE AFTER FROPA THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY OWING TO UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE GFS/ECMWF PROG ANOTHER
UPPER SYSTEM MOVG ACRS THE NRN MEXICO AND PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFT MONDAY NGT/TUESDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE SOLNS
SUGGEST PCPN WL END TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. WL COMPROMISE WITH
PCPN REMAINING OVER THE EXTREME ERN CWA/MSA WEDNESDAY. FURTHER...AS
THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
PROG A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE SWRN GULF MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AND MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW DRG
THAT TIME. NO PCPN EXPECTED THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    56  68  59  72  47  /  10  30  40  40  30
VICTORIA          49  66  57  68  42  /  10  40  50  50  20
LAREDO            58  71  58  73  48  /  30  40  50  30  30
ALICE             56  70  58  73  47  /  10  40  50  40  30
ROCKPORT          56  64  60  64  47  /  10  30  40  40  30
COTULLA           52  68  56  70  44  /  30  60  40  30  20
KINGSVILLE        57  70  59  74  48  /  10  30  40  40  30
NAVY CORPUS       56  65  60  65  49  /  10  30  40  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO
     PORT ARANSAS.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION