Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
FXUS64 KCRP 271139 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
639 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016
Updated for 12z aviation.
Latest guidance suggest low clouds may not be as likely to develop
as earlier thought, and have removed mention of MVFR cigs. The
main issue today will be chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Confidence is not high enough to prevail SHRA/TSRA and have
included VCSH/VCTS for now. Otherwise, southeast winds will pick
up later this morning, with gusts during the afternoon hours
around 20 knots. Gusty winds will then subside around 01z-02z and
remain 12 knots or less overnight.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 402 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/
SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
Isolated showers continue this morning...extending from Webb
county eastward to the Victoria Crossroads. Additional isolated
showers will continue early this morning with rain amounts generally
on the light side. For today, a weak mid level trough will be
located across western parts of the area into northeast Mexico.
The disturbance combined with PW values at or slightly above 2
inches will lead to renewed chances for scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Best chances will reside across the northern and
northeast parts of the region. As with yesterday, there may be
pockets of moderate rain at times. The chances for rain and cloud
cover should hold temps down a few degrees from what we have seen
in recent weeks. Highs will range from the upper 90s over the Rio
Grande Plains to lower 90s over the Victoria Crossroads. Rain
chances will diminish some after 00z and will carry 20 pops for
the overnight period.
On Thursday, upper level weakness will remain across South Texas.
Chances for isolated to perhaps scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue. Pops were capped at 20 to 30 percent for now. Temps
will rebound a bit with highs around 102 near Laredo with middle
90s around Victoria.
Lastly, there will be a moderate risk of rip currents both today
and Thursday southeast winds increase across the surf zone.
LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
No major changes needed with the long term. The current midlevel low
continues to weaken and move farther west of South Texas. Overall,
moisture will gradually lower day by day, however, sufficient
lingering moisture combined with weakened H5 heights will maintain
at least slight chance pops each day through next week, peaking
during the late morning and afternoon hours. No strong midlevel
forcing should keep most activity developing mainly along the
seabreeze. Have brushed 20% POPs farther south extending from the
Victoria Crossroads, covering the coastal plains, where H85 temps
cool during the day. Isolated development may push farther west into
the Brush Country during the late afternoon/evening Friday/Saturday,
but as capping appears to be stronger, will leave only 10% POPs
during the evening hours for western sites with a mention of
thunder. Temperatures should gradually warm through the period,
returning to the mid/upper 90s across the coastal plains, to 100F to
105F across the Brush Country. Heat index values of 105F to 109F are
also expected daily across most of South Texas.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 93 79 94 78 96 / 30 20 30 10 20
Victoria 91 77 95 76 97 / 50 20 30 10 30
Laredo 99 78 102 79 103 / 20 20 20 10 10
Alice 96 77 98 76 99 / 20 20 30 10 20
Rockport 89 80 91 80 92 / 40 20 30 10 20
Cotulla 97 77 100 76 101 / 40 20 20 10 10
Kingsville 95 78 97 77 98 / 20 20 30 10 20
Navy Corpus 90 81 91 80 91 / 30 20 30 10 20