Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 230136
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
836 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE W CWA THIS EVENING IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF DIMINISHING. AM EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
AS THE NOCTURNAL CAPPING INVERSION STRENGTHENS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WEST CWA. MODELS PROG CONVECTION IN MEX TO NOT MAKE IT TO THE
W CWA OVERNIGHT...BUT KEPT A SLIGHT CHC FOR THE W CWA FOR ANY
ROGUE STORMS THAT MAY MANAGE TO MAKE IT. ALONG THE COAST...AM
EXPECTING CONVECTION TO REDVLP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARD SAT
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET/LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND BETTER INSTABILITY. WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO MODERATE LEVELS IN RESPONSE
TO THE LLJ OVERNIGHT. OVERALL FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR AOA 06Z OVER MOST TERMINALS...
BUT BEFORE THAT AT KVCT. THUNDER THIS EVENING SHOULD STAY OUT OF
TERMINALS KALI AND KLRD BUT WILL MONITOR AS THIS CONVECTION IS
DIURNAL AND SHOULD BE WEAKENING. COULD EVEN HAVE SOME TEMPO IFR
AT KLRD...GIVEN THE EASTERLY WIND. SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
GULF WATERS OVERNIGHT SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM TERMINALS AS MOST
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING INTO AREA. STILL
PUT A VCSH AT KCRP FOR POSSIBILITY. AFTER 12Z...SHOULD SEE MORE
CONVECTION WITH COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...PLENTY OF
MOISTURE...AND APPROACH OF DISTURBANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. DID GO
WITH PROB30 TSRA FOR THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN TEMPO TSRA
FOR THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON (PROB30 AT KLRD WHERE CONVECTION MAY BE
LATE SO CONFIDENCE LOWER). MVFR MAINLY IN CONVECTION...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AROUND 15Z/16Z. GENERALLY THE TIMING OF
THE CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SEA-BREEZE TIMING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...SURFACE FRONT IS
JUST NORTH OF THE CWA AS OF WRITING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA. MOST CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE AS NOCTURNAL
COOLING SETS IN THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...A SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ IS
PROG TO DEVELOP WITH AN AREA OF COASTAL SPEED SHEAR AND VERY WEAK
SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE NIGHT FROM ROUGHLY
PACKERY CHANNEL NORTH TO PORT OCONNOR...RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY...A
H5 VORT MAX IS PROG TO ADVECT EAST BY LATE IN THE NIGHT WHICH MAY
ASSIST WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND THUS HAVE 20 POPS ACROSS
THE WEST FOR THE NIGHT. CONVECTIVE CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY AS AN ADDITIONAL H5 VORT MAX APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND H25 DIVERGENCE INCREASES AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO. COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WITH PERSISTENT DEEP
MOISTURE VALUES AND AN INCREASE IN SBCAPE SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES. TROUGH
AXIS TILTS NEGATIVE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PRETTY MUCH ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS AND WITH ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS...FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FROM MIDDAY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. &&

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
SITUATED OVER THE ROCKIES TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PART OF THE
FORECAST. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND BASE OF UPPER LOW ON SUNDAY
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN THREAT
WITH CONVECTION ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY SINCE SOILS ARE ALL READY SATURATED FROM RECENT HEAVY
RAINS. ALSO...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON
SUNDAY AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL PIVOT OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO WEST
TEXAS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT... UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY. THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL PERSIST. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 12Z MONDAY
BUT THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF TRENDS DICTATE SO. MAIN
TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY PUSH EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY BUT
LINGERING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIST MAINLY OVER
EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT DOWNTICK IN RAIN CHANCES.
LATEST 12Z MODELS NOW WANT TO BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OUT OF
THE WEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHICH MAY RESULT IN MORE
CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  87  75  85  77  /  20  30  70  70  50
VICTORIA          73  85  73  83  73  /  20  40  70  80  70
LAREDO            76  91  73  89  75  /  20  30  70  50  30
ALICE             74  88  73  87  75  /  10  50  60  70  40
ROCKPORT          78  86  77  84  78  /  40  40  70  60  60
COTULLA           73  88  72  88  72  /  20  60  80  50  30
KINGSVILLE        76  89  75  87  77  /  10  30  60  70  50
NAVY CORPUS       78  86  76  83  78  /  30  30  70  60  60

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...
     GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...
     MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...
     WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM


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