Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 291301 AAB
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
801 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...The forecast was updated to raise thunderstorm
chances for northern parts of the region through 18z. Area of
thunderstorms exiting LaSalle county will continue to move
eastward across the northern part of McMullen and Live Oak
counties this morning. Brief heavy rains...gusty winds...and some
hail will be possible with this activity. Updated products are
out.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 638 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...Note Aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Mixture of MVFR/VFR conditions this morning
transitioning to VFR during the afternoon. MVFR conditions near
isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly west of US 77.
A transition to MVFR ceilings expected near the end of the TAF
period. Onshore flow expected during the period. Breezy over the
SRN Coastal Bend during the mid/late afternoon Today.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 506 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...Concur with deterministic
output that the CWA/MSA will remain under a quasi-stationary upper
level ridge. Drier atmospheric conditions expected. Yet...moisture
and instability will remain sufficient for generally isolated
diurnal convection Today/Monday. Expect max heat index values to
remain below 105F both days. Anticipate that the thermal gradient
will contribute to SCEC wind over the Waters this afternoon.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...H5 Low currently
moving into Southern California will move east across the Desert
Southwest through early in the week. By Tuesday, an increase in
shortwave impulses in the southwest flow aloft should aide in an
increase in activity across the Sierra Madre, which will gradually
move into the far western areas Monday night into early Tuesday.
PWATs across the region will continue to range from 1.5 - 2.0
inches, especially across the western two-thirds of the CWA, or
areas generally west of I-37, where rain chances will be best early
on. The continued eastward progression of the low/trough will
continue to kick pops farther east over the CWA as well. Biggest
caveat to this however remains the warm H85 levels. That said,
continued to remain conservative on POPs for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Slow erosion of the cap develops Wednesday night into Thursday night
with the approach of a late season frontal boundary. This front
should add more of a focus to keep higher POPs during this time
frame. Drying in the mid to upper levels through Friday will taper
off rain chances heading into the weekend with slightly cooler but
noticeably drier conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  88  77  89  78  /  10  10  10  20  20
Victoria          73  88  73  87  75  /  10  20  10  30  20
Laredo            76  95  76  95  75  /  30  20  30  30  30
Alice             75  91  75  91  76  /  20  20  20  40  20
Rockport          77  85  78  86  80  /  10  10  10  20  20
Cotulla           75  91  73  93  73  /  30  20  30  40  30
Kingsville        76  91  76  91  77  /  10  10  20  30  20
Navy Corpus       78  85  79  86  80  /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM



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