National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KCRP 061129
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
529 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY...WITH
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AT LRD TAF SITE. LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WILL COME TO AN END WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALL
LOCATIONS WILL DEVELOP A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING ABOVE THE SURFACE...UP TO ABOUT 2KFT. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN REDEVELOPING TONIGHT...BUT TOO
LITTLE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS POINT. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE SURFACE MAINLY FOR VCT TERMINAL
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...COMPLICATED FORECAST IN
THE SHORT TERM WITH ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING IN OVER SOUTH TEXAS.
WILL FOCUS ON FREEZING TEMPS/PRECIP FIRST...HAVE LOW TEMPS TONIGHT
BETWEEN 30 AND 32 DEGREES FOR 5 COUNTIES FROM VICTORIA WEST TO
MCMULLEN. THESE LOCATIONS HAVE BEST CHANCE OF BEING BELOW FREEZING
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...WARRANTING FREEZE WARNING. OTHER LOCATIONS
WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING...BUT AT THIS TIME THINK IF IT REACHES
FREEZING WOULD BE FOR A SHORT TIME AND NOT MAKE 2 HR MINIMUM
REQUIREMENT FOR FREEZE WARNING. FREEZING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST WHERE TEMPS DROP TO FREEZING...BUT THERE ARE PLENTY OF
QUESTIONS IN IF THERE WILL BE PRECIP MATCHING UP WITH COLDEST
TEMPS. UPGLIDE FLOW THIS MORNING PRODUCING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING
WILL CUT OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS 850MB FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TURNING
WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST...BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES WESTERLY FLOW
WOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW REDEVELOPING
TOMORROW NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THIS UPGLIDE REGENERATION WILL BE CRITICAL
IN THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING PRECIP. THINKING AT THIS TIME IS THAT
WHILE CHANCE POPS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING...WOULD ONLY
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ZR DUE TO TIMING DIFFICULTIES. AS FAR AS
PRECIP TYPE...IN AREAS OF FREEZING TEMPS EXPECT A ZR TYPE AS
OPPOSED TO IP DUE TO SHALLOW NATURE OF SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS WBZ MAINLY ABOVE -5C...TOP DOWN METHODS
WOULD INDICATE -6 TO -11C WOULD BE NECESSARY TO CREATE IP.
FREEZING PRECIP TIMING WOULD BE MOST LIKELY 3AM TO 9AM TO COINCIDE
WITH DEVELOPING UPGLIDE AND APPROPRIATE TEMPERATURES. LITTLE TO NO
ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES
WOULD BE MOST AT RISK FOR DEVELOPING ICY SPOTS ON ROADWAYS.

ADDITIONALLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND A MODERATE NORTH WIND WILL
PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OF 20 TO 25
DEGREES PROMPTING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT WESTERN TWO
COUNTIES...WHERE WIND CHILL WILL BE 25 TO 30 DEGREES. EXPECT THIS
TO DEVELOP AT EARLY AS 9PM TONIGHT IN NORTHEAST AREAS...AND LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING SATURDAY WITH LITTLE WARMING OF TEMPS.

BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY...WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...BUT
SHOULD SEE SOME REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA. WITH 850 MB COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH SHOULD SEE A
TEMPORARY REPRIEVE IN RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO SEE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...MAINLY IN THE FAR WEST. IF THAT
HAPPENS COULD SEE SOME HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S WEST.

FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT A VERY COLD DAY (TEMPERATURES 30+ DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL) WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE LAST
TIME WE SAW DAYTIME HIGHS THIS COLD WAS IN FEBRUARY OF 2011.
EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN DURING THE DAY
WITH UPGLIDE FLOW CONTINUING...30OK SURFACE FLOW INCREASES TO 25
TO 30 KTS DURING THE DAY WITH COND PRESSURE DEFICITS BELOW 10
MB...THINK THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN THAN
DRIZZLE DURING THE DAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...COMPLICATED FORECAST
PRETTY MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE ENOUGH TO
LESSEN CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING ISENTROPIC
LIFT (295K-300K MAINLY) SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME WEAK UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD
HAVE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG WITH THE RAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT (MAINLY OVER BRIDGES AND OVER-PASSES). TEMPERATURES REMAIN
STEADY OR INCREASE A BIT SATURDAY NIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS UP
A BIT. THUS...ANY RAIN ON SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON SUNDAY...SO RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH
SOME (MAINLY OVER THE GULF WATERS)...AND ANOTHER FRONT COMES DOWN ON
MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT FOR RAIN WITH THIS AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS AND REASONABLE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. DRIER AIR COMES IN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY BUT BRISK AND COOL.
NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
MOISTURE DOES RETURN ENOUGH WITH ANOTHER STRONGER DISTURBANCE
IMPACTING THE AREA MORE THAN LIKELY ON THURSDAY NIGHT. ECMWF IS A
BIT FASTER BUT GFS HAS MUCH BETTER MOISTURE...AND EVEN IF UPPER
SUPPORT IS DELAYED SIMILAR TO GFS SOLUTION...COASTAL LOW/TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND COULD ALSO GET ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY/TROUGH. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...IT WILL REMAIN RATHER
COLD FOR SOUTH TEXAS STANDARDS WITH NEAR FREEZING OR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
IT GETS A BIT WARMER. HIGHS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL WARM UP BY THURSDAY TO THE 50S (MAY ALSO SEE SOME
50S MONDAY IF CONDITIONS CLEAR ENOUGH OUT TO THE WEST).
OVERALL...COOL AND DAMP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    46  33  39  34  50  /  60  20  50  50  20
VICTORIA          42  30  37  31  48  /  70  20  50  40  30
LAREDO            51  36  42  35  56  /  30  10  20  20  10
ALICE             46  33  37  33  52  /  50  20  40  40  20
ROCKPORT          45  35  40  34  48  /  70  20  50  50  30
COTULLA           47  34  38  30  53  /  30  10  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        46  33  38  33  50  /  60  20  50  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       48  37  41  36  50  /  60  20  50  50  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...
     GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...
     NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEE...GOLIAD...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...
     VICTORIA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION