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000
FXUS64 KCRP 290156 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
856 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED WITH A
LAGGING SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN LIVE OAK COUNTY THAT IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH WITHIN THE HOUR. OTHERWISE...MADE CHANGES TO THE
HOURLY GRIDS TO FOLLOW TRENDS MAINLY OUT WEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THESE
SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE LRD TAF SITE AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED VCSH OR
SHRA REMARKS IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT MOSTLY A VFR FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
WINDOW OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT ALI/CRP/VCT EARLY IN THE MORNING. ANY
LIGHT FOG/STRATIS THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD MIX OUT BY 14Z/15Z.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT ALI/CRP/VCT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE
MOVG W ACROSS S TX ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT IS CTRD ACROSS CNTRL TX...IS HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON S TX DUE
TO VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE FACT THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE IS THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THEREFORE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
IN THE FCST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE ON TEMP
FCST. DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED SUFFICIENTLY THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES GENERALLY 105 TO 109 WITH ONE LOCATION
REPORTING 112 YESTERDAY. DEWPOINTS ON TUE COULD BE ELEVATED ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES OF 110-115 ACROSS MORE LOCATIONS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT HEAT INDICES WILL REACH
105 TO 109...AND MAY STAY JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUE.
HAVE SILENT 5-10 POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ROGUE -SRHA THAT MAY DVLP
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS
ANTICIPATED. SFC WINDS ARE PROGD TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON TUE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO JUST BARELY REACH CAUTION ACROSS THE SRN
BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS BY TUE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LONG TERM UPPER PATTERN
CHARACTERIZED BY A QUASI-STATIONARY RIDGE OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND A
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...WITH DISTURBANCES MOVG SEWD ACRS
THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS CONTRIBUTING TO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CWA/MSA FRIDAY THEN STALL (GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.) EXPECT MSTR CONVERGENCE/HIGH
PWAT VALUES (GFS DETERMINISTIC) ALONG THE BNDRY TO CONTRIBUTE TO
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC PROG SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER PWAT VALUES OVR THE CWA/MSA
SUNDAY APPARENTLY DUE TO GREATER SUBSIDENCE (700-300MB Q-VECTOR
DIVERGENCE). NEVERTHELESS...WL RETAIN ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE
CWA/MSA FOR SUNDAY GIVEN ANTICIPATED MSTR CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
DISSIPATING SFC BNDRY. RETAINED ISOLD CONVECTION MONDAY IN PART
BASED ON GFS CIN/CAPE (YET PWAT VALUES REPRESENT A LIMITING FACTOR.)
EXPECT MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TO REMAIN GENERALLY
LESS THAN 105F. COOLER MAX TEMPS/HEAT INDEX VALUES EXPECTED
FRIDAY/SATURDAY OWING TO GREATER MSTR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  98  75  96  78  /  10  10   0  10  10
VICTORIA          75  99  74  97  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            79 106  78 105  80  /  10   0   0   0  10
ALICE             74 103  74 100  76  /  10   0   0  10  10
ROCKPORT          80  92  79  89  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           75 103  75 103  76  /  10   0   0  10  10
KINGSVILLE        74 101  75  98  77  /  10   0   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       81  93  81  89  81  /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM