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000
FXUS64 KCRP 241141
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
641 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation below for 12Z TAF update.

&&

.AVIATION...

Patchy fog has been developing at and around VCT and ALI early
this morning. Anticipate visibilities to improve as fog clears
within the next couple hours after daybreak. MVFR cloud deck may
briefly form over ALI and LRD early this morning, but should clear
the area by the mid to late morning. VFR will then prevail at all
area terminals. Isolated streamer showers are moving within the
vicinity of CRP and VCT early this morning. Anticipate more
scattered convection to develop and move onshore later this
morning into the afternoon. Weak to moderate southeast winds will
develop through the afternoon, relaxing this later this evening.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 435 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...

The region remains positioned between a deep upper level trough
over the Rockies and a weak cutoff low over the northern Gulf
coast. This cutoff low will continue retrograding to the west as
the deeper trough progresses further east through the period.
Anticipate isolated streamer showers to continue through the early
morning, with more scattered sea breeze convection developing
during the afternoon. Moisture will increase overnight and more so
on Monday, with PWAT values climbing back over 2 inches across
most inland areas, but especially across the western zones.
After a repeat of streamer showers and storms overnight, chances
for showers and thunderstorms will increase through the day on
Monday.

Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday, with highs near
90 degrees along the coast to the mid/upper 90s across the Rio
Grande Plains. Highs tomorrow will be a few degrees cooler across
the west where higher cloud cover and more rainfall is expected
throughout the day.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Saturday)...

Main upper trough will eject into the Northern Plains at the start
of the extended. However, some energy hangs back to the west over
the SW Conus and Four Corners Region with a closed low developing
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Deeper moisture will exist
over South Texas with PW values at or slightly above 2 inches
Tuesday persisting into at least Thursday. Areas along the western
Brush Country and Rio Grande will be the favored locations for
showers and storms these days due to closer proximity of better
dynamics. Will keep pops in the 50 to 60 percent range for these
areas, but may need to bump pops up in later forecasts. The threat
for moderate to heavy rain could evolve over the western zones, but
at this time confidence is higher of heavy rains northwest of the
forecast area. Model trends will need to be monitored for the
potential to add mdt/heavy rain to the forecast, esp for Tuesday and
Wednesday. For the Coastal Bend into the Victoria Crossroads, decent
rain chances will still exist during the week, considering moisture
may pool along a southward moving frontal boundary. Daytime heating
and the sea breeze may also be sufficient enough to generate
convection as well. The front may actually make it through the area
in the Thursday to Friday time frame. Rain chances will then
diminish from northeast to southwest Friday night into Saturday as
drier air filters into South Texas.

Regarding temperatures, highs will be around normal Tuesday through
Thursday. Evolution of the showers and storms could end complicating
the temperature forecast though. By late in the forecast, highs will
be setback into the lower to mid 80s behind the boundary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    90  76  90  76  89  /  30  20  30  20  40
Victoria          89  73  90  74  89  /  30  10  30  20  40
Laredo            97  77  94  78  94  /  20  10  40  40  60
Alice             93  73  92  74  92  /  30  10  40  20  40
Rockport          90  78  89  79  88  /  30  20  30  20  40
Cotulla           96  75  94  76  93  /  20  20  40  50  60
Kingsville        92  74  92  76  92  /  30  20  30  20  40
Navy Corpus       90  79  89  80  88  /  30  20  30  20  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

XX/99...SHORT TERM