Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 270344
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1044 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Some minor cosmetic changes to the overnight grids, mostly for
PoPs. Removed the mention of the isolated showers over the Rio
Grande Plains and offshore Gulf waters through much of the
overnight hours. Could see an isolated shower develop or move into
our offshore waters closer to daybreak but confidence is lower in
this occurring as much of the activity may remain well south of
our region.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 656 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...Update for 00Z Aviation

AVIATION...

Afternoon convection is slowly dissipating across the area. Gusts
should drop off at KCRP, KVCT, and KALI over the next hour. Expect
winds to stay elevated at KLRD a bit longer. VFR conditions
expected at all TAF sites overnight with patches of stratus
possibly developing during the early morning hours. Better chances
of brief restrictions at KVCT with some fog and stratus possible.
Any stratus that develops will lift by late morning leaving us
with continued southerly flow.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 349 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday night)...

Water vapor imagery shows the upper low moving west out of
Coahuila with deeper moisture over the western Gulf of Mexico
into the Lower Texas coast advancing to the northwest. Scattered
convection continues to move northwestward across the interior
Coastal Bend into the Brush Country this afternoon. Expect
coverage will diminish to isolated by the early evening hours and
diminish with loss of heating by late evening. Convection has
persisted behind an advancing outflow boundary over the coastal
waters and expect the threat for isolated convection will continue
this evening and overnight.

The upper low will continue to move west tonight into Thursday
but models depict a very weak mid to upper level shear axis will
remain over the region for Thursday. Moisture levels will remain
high enough with PWAT values around 1.9 inches to expect isolated
convection to form by late morning and move inland with the sea
breeze during the afternoon Thursday. Temperatures and dewpoints
should lead to heat index values in the 105 to 109 range Thursday
afternoon.

Will show isolated showers possible over the coastal waters late
Thursday night. Otherwise, weather will be quiet for the area.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...

Broad upper level ridging will spread over much of the central and
southwestern US late this week. For South Texas this means
temporarily drier air and hot temperatures. PWAT values drop to
around 1.5 inches by Saturday...but by early next week we see a
sharp reversal on that with much higher moisture air approaching
from the north. As ridge slides west a bit, models push a frontal
boundary into north and east Texas over the weekend, which...while
not unheard of...is unusual for this time of year. However...pretty
good agreement among models in this solution. This is what is
expected to drag moisture down into the area. Will cap things at 20
to occasionally 30 pops from Sunday through early next week as
confidence in the solution is still not high, partly just due to
climatological expectations. At the least, should get some seabreeze
activity most days late in the long term period.

Expect very hot temperatures Friday/Saturday/Sunday with drier air
in place, temperatures ranging from around 105 west to the upper 90s
east. As higher moisture returns early next week, will see
temperatures back town toward normal highs. Low temperatures remain
seasonal throughout the period in the mid and upper 70s. Heat index
values expected to be at least 105 to 109 daily over much of the
area, but could see some periods of higher heat index values Friday
through Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  97  77  98  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
Victoria          76  97  76 100  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
Laredo            78 103  78 104  78  /  10  10  10  10   0
Alice             75 100  75 103  75  /  10  20  10  10   0
Rockport          80  93  80  95  80  /  10  20  10  10  10
Cotulla           76 102  76 104  76  /  10  10   0   0   0
Kingsville        77  98  76 100  76  /  10  20  10  10   0
Navy Corpus       81  93  81  95  80  /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

GH/77...SHORT TERM



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