Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 300059
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
759 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE MID LEVEL TROF...SEEN VIA WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE...REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND
AND NW COASTAL WATERS. LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT LEADING TO SCT
SHRA/TSRA`S REDVLPG AND MOVG INLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.
HOWEVER...SOME MODELS PROG AN OFFSHORE FLOW TO DVLP SAT MORNING
WHICH COULD PUSH THE BETTER CONVERGENCE/PRECIP FARTHER OFFSHORE
LATER IN THE MORNING ON SAT. CURRENT POP FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WATERS AND LOWEST POPS ACROSS THE W CWA
OVERNIGHT INTO SAT. TEMP AND WIND FCST ALSO LOOK REASONABLE.
THEREFORE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVER SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF VCT FOR
A FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THIS EVENING.
A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG WITH COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND AND LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS. BETTER CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION
WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITHIN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION REMAINS PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE UPPER VALLEY OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH A MID LEVEL
LOW LOCATED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS PROG
TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING NORTH
ON SATURDAY. POSITIONING OF SURFACE LOW/TROUGHING AND ESPECIALLY
OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE CRITICAL WITH WITH REGARDS TO
AMOUNT/COVERAGE OF PRECIP. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND
I HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE LOCATED ALONG
AND JUST OFFSHORE. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/OFF THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING NORTHWARD LATE
IN THE NIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A LIGHT LANDBREEZE LATE
TONIGHT WHICH WOULD HELP ENHANCE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COAST. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AREAS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY WILL HAVE MINIMAL
CHANCES OF PRECIP DUE TO DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT AND IMPACTS FROM
SLIGHT NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THIS MORNING GIVEN SLIGHTLY LOWER
SURFACE MOISTURE VALUES WITH MAX TEMPS STRONGLY DEPENDENT UPON
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND PRECIP.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE IS HOW TO HANDLE THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN
AND FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF/BAY OF CAMPECHE. PREVIOUS GFS AND CANADIAN HAVE BEEN TRYING TO
SPIN THIS UP INTO SOMETHING MORE ORGANIZED...WITH ECMWF KEEPING IT
AN OPEN WAVE. APPEARS NOW THAT MODELS ARE KEEPING IT AT WORST A
SURFACE LOW BUT NOT ANYTHING TOO STRONG (NOT THAT THIS CANNOT TURN
INTO SOMETHING MORE ORGANIZED). IN ANY CASE...FOLLOWING A MORE OPEN
WAVE TYPE SOLUTION WOULD BE BETTER FOR RAIN CHANCES HERE IN SOUTH
TEXAS...AND THUS AM GOING TO INCREASE POPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AND INCLUDE A MENTION OF RAIN FOR FRIDAY (COORDINATED WITH KBRO ON
THIS). THUS...BY WEDNESDAY AS PWATS EXCEED 2 INCHES AGAIN WE SHOULD
SEE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING SPREADING INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON...TAPERING OFF OVER THE GULF. WILL DO THE SAME
FOR THURSDAY. COULD SEE SOME DRIER AIR IN ON FRIDAY SO WENT ONLY
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION (MOISTURE IS STILL REASONABLE).
BEFORE TUESDAY NIGHT...DID NOT MAKE TOO MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST...AS STILL EXPECTING SOME CONVECTION ON SUNDAY MAINLY
EASTERN HALF WITH PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. MAYBE A BRIEF
SHOWER TUESDAY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS BUT NOT MUCH OTHERWISE.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...KEPT THINGS WARM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
(ALTHOUGH DID LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO SOME
AREAS)...AND THEN DID LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
GIVEN MORE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION (MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS). OVERALL
THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DID NOT LOOK TOO BAD BUT DID MAKE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON ISC COLLABORATION AS WELL AS AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE...WHICH TENDS TO DIVERGE TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH ECMWF HAVING COOLER 2 METER TEMPERATURES THEN WARMER GFS
AND EVEN WARMER CANADIAN THURSDAY MORNING. OVERALL...WENT FOR THE
WARMER NUMBERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  93  77  95  78  /  30  30  30  30  10
VICTORIA          76  95  76  96  78  /  20  30  30  40  10
LAREDO            79 100  80 101  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             76  94  76  98  77  /  20  20  20  30  10
ROCKPORT          77  89  79  92  82  /  40  40  30  40  10
COTULLA           76  99  76  99  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  93  77  96  78  /  30  30  30  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  89  80  92  81  /  50  50  30  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM





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