Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 171743
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
143 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN INTO SATURDAY BEFORE RE-INTENSIFYING LATER ON SUNDAY ONCE
AGAIN. OVERALL IT SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY PERIOD WITH
A BRIEF WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. WILL LEAVE THE PATHY
VALLEY FOG IN THE FORECAST BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE TOO WIDE
SPREAD BY SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES QUITE COOL...INTO THE 40S AT LEAST
FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL DAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND JUST
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BY QUITE COLD WITH
FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COLDEST VALLEYS...AND A FROST ADVISORY
MAY HAVE TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN PA FOR FRIDAY
MORNING ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE HIGH RETREATS TO OUR
EAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY
FRIDAY. IT WILL BE DRY. THIS MAY SET UP COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION
SATURDAY. PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. IT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD SATURDAY MORNING.

MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN SYSTEMS WILL BE TO OUR WEST ALONG WITH A
SURGE OF 1 SIGMA ABOVE NORMAL PW VALUES. AT THIS TIME THE
RETREATING HIGH AND DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR
WEST...OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

AT THIS TIME...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE MOISTURE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SHOULD PUSH INTO PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY
CHANGE BUT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS CURRENTLY INDICATED DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS SUNDAY
PERHAPS INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE GEFS QPF PDF IMPLIES DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY IS BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN WEST AND INTO EVENING IN THE
EAST. VERY LIGHT RAIN INDICATED IN THE GEFS.

THE 500 HPA TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT DEEPENS OVER THE REGION MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THIS CAUSES THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES TO INDICATED
INSTABILITY SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LOW POPS MAINLY IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. NO GOOD FOCUS FOR ANY RAIN AND THE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH PERHAPS THURSDAY.

SO OVERALL...OTHER THAN THE FRONTAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL SUNDAY...IT
SHOULD BE A COOL DRY PERIOD MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD CHANGE
SHOULD AN UNRESOLVED SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH FORECAST
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION WILL
TRANSLATE TO A NEAR CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. PATCHY MORNING FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS IS
PROBABLE THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE NW MTNS AND THROUGH THE
LOWER SUSQ. SO LNS ARE MDT ARE POSSIBLE MVFR AND BFD POSSIBLE IFR.

OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH.
SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...ROSS



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