Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 262043
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
343 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will build east across Pennsylvania
today, then off the east coast Monday. Low pressure will track
out of the Ohio Valley and north of the area during the middle
of the week bringing a mild and rainy period, followed by a
potent cold front late Wednesday that will usher in a return
back to colder temperatures for late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
High pressure building into region with a broken deck of
stratocu eroding quickly this afternoon. Pressure gradient
gradually weakening and gusty winds becoming harder to find.
Wind speeds around 10-15 mph will diminish by early evening.
Temps tonight will slip into the lower 20s in the northern mtns
and to around 30 in the SE, with most locales falling into the
mid/upper 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure shifts off the Mid Atlantic coast early Monday with
mid-level clouds increasing ahead of a weak shortwave tracking
through the Mid MS/OH Valley. Maintained low pops Monday as into
Mon night with scattered sprinkles or very light rain showers
the expected outcome - mainly for western/northern mtns. Highs
bounce back above average into the 40s to lower 50s.

Warm front lifts toward PA Mon night, but biggest impact will be
thickening of cloud cover, and maybe a sprinkle in spots.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Prominent southwest to westerly flow will dominate the long term
period with several shortwave trofs dropping into the central
U.S. and providing chances for unsettled weather.

Elongated low developing over the central U.S. on Tue will edge
a warm frontal boundary toward the region, bringing chance for
light precipitation and ushering in another round of warmer than
normal temperatures (though not as high as the past few days).
By Wed, upper wave catches up to the low, bringing a more
significant rainfall, followed by a cold frontal passage.

Colder and very breezy conditions then in store for late week in
NW flow, along with sct lake effect snow showers in the NW Mtns.

Cooler air lingers into the weekend as upper flow remains from
the NW.

Yet another weather system slides through the Great Lakes over
the weekend, with center of low likely remaining to our north.
The greatest shower chances are over the NW half of the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure building into region with a broken deck of
3000-4000ft stratocu eroding quickly this afternoon. Majority of
area is VFR at 19z, and few patches of MVFR left will disappear
within the next hour. Pressure gradient gradually weakening
and gusty winds becoming harder to find. Wind speeds around
10-15 mph will diminish by early evening.

High pressure shifts off the Mid Atlantic coast early Monday with
mid-level clouds increasing ahead of a weak shortwave tracking
through the Mid MS/OH Valley. Scattered sprinkles or very light
rain showers possible - mainly for western/northern mtns.

Warm front lifts toward PA Mon night, with MVFR cigs becoming
likely in the west. But biggest impact will be thickening of
cloud cover, and maybe a sprinkle in spots.

Outlook...

Mon...VFR.

Tue-Wed...Rain showers/Sub-VFR reductions likely. LLWS poss.

Wed night...Strong FROPA early with gusty winds.

Thu-Fri...Sub-VFR likely west in sct snow showers. NW winds.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Ross/RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...Ross/Gartner
AVIATION...RXR



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