Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 032125
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
525 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LINGER AROUND
THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR MUCH
NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS TRIED TO POP UP IN THE SC MTNS RECENTLY BUT HAVE DIED.
THERE IS STILL A FAIR BIT OF SPEED SHEAR AND MILD TEMPS
ALOFT. BUT I AM GOING TO BLAME THE SHORT LIFE SPAN ON DRYING
OCCURRING AS THE CLEARING TAKES PLACE IN THE SWRN HALF OF THE
REGION. ENOUGH INSTABILITY/MOISTURE TO MAKE THE CU GROW - BUT
THIN CAPE NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP THEM GROWING. HOWEVER...MESO MDLS DO
CONTINUE TO PLACE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE SC MTNS AND EVEN INTO
THE SUSQ VLY THIS EVENING. THUS...HAVE SCALED BACK THE POPS A
SMALL BIT BUT LEFT THEM IN PLACE AND IN CURRENT TIME SPAN.

ONE LARGER CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE THE POPS OVER THE EAST EARLY
TONIGHT AND EXPAND SOME QPF TO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL RE-ESTABLISH THEMSELVES OVER MOST/ALL OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS OR DZ IS EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS BY
SUNRISE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN KINDA MILD FOR EARLY MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER OH VLY AND
KEEP IT UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POPS ON WED REFLECT THE
NORMAL OUTCOME OF AN UPPER LOW OVER OH/WV. SCT SHRA...WITH THE
HIGHER /LOW LIKELY/ POPS SLIDE FROM E-W AS THE MORE DRIZZLY STUFF
IS JOINED BY DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE WRN MTNS. MAXES SHOULD BE
ABOUT 5-10F UNDER NORMALS DUE TO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR A LARGE TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S.
TO BECOME DOMINATED BY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND CURLING EASTWARD TO BE LOCATED OVER E NORTH
CAROLINA BY THU EVE AND DELMARVA ON FRI. SHOWERY PATTERN IN STORE
FOR SURE OVER THIS PERIOD...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ON THU LOCATED
OVER W PA /CLOSER TO UPPER LOW/ WITH PRECIP SHIFTING EASTWARD ON
FRI AS IT CONSOLIDATES NEAR SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.

THERE LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY
ALONG WITH A MODEST SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES BEFORE A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS SEWD LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS THE PERSISTENT
UPPER LOW GRADUALLY UNWINDS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH
BRINGING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR SUN/MON BEFORE WHAT LOOKS LIKE
COULD BE A PRETTY DECENT WARMUP AS RIDGING FINALLY ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST OVER EASTERN AREAS WHILE VFR WITH OCNL MVFR
IS THE RULE OVER THE WEST AND NORTH.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND BRINGS AREAS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR FROM LATE EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...BUT MOST OF THE FLYING AREA WILL REMAIN WITH SUB VFR
CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED RAIN/DRIZZLE AND EVEN SOME FOG OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...OCNL SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE


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