Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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301
FXUS61 KCTP 250216
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1016 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will build over the northeastern U.S.
bringing a noticeably more summer-like pattern into the first
part of the holiday weekend. Slightly cooler weather may arrive
for Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

Light winds and clear skies should provide for another cool
overnight with lows mainly in the 50s and upper 40s in cooler
spots of the western mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday should be a near picture perfect summer day. Mostly
sunny skies, light winds, and temperatures mainly in the upper 70s
to mid-80s.

It will not be as cool overnight Wednesday into Thursday but
should still be comfortable. But the humid will be beginning it`s
steady climb.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The extended guidance continues to show a strong ridge over the
mid Atlantic and the Great Lakes region through the weekend. This
will bring the arrival of the first extended period of summer-
like temperatures and humidity.

By Thursday we will be embedded in a broad WSW flow aloft.
Slightly above normal PWATS support the idea that humidity will
become noticeable over most of the area for the first time this
warm season. It also means we will be susceptible to mainly
afternoon convection pretty much on a daily basis into the
weekend. However the strong ridge should provide enough subsidence
to keep any convection at bay Thursday and Friday. The GFS is
very aggressive poking the Bermuda ridge strongly up over the
eastern U.S. Saturday while the ECMWF is a little flatter. However
given the southerly flow of moisture, the warmer temperatures and
the possibility of a mid level trough advecting through, Saturday
should have a decent chance for some afternoon convection. The
trend is for the ridge to break down late in the weekend and for
cooler air to move into the region early next week. This could
bring temperatures to slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure aloft and at the surface building into the region
tonight into wednesday will bring minimal clouds and primarily VFR
conditions - though some patchy MVFR fog is poss in some valleys
of the southeast toward sunrise. NW winds around 10 mph will
diminish quickly this eve...and pick back up to 7-10 mph from the
west on Wed.

Primarily VFR conditions will continue through the next several
days...with brief impacts from mainly sct afternoon thunderstorms
from Thu into the weekend.

OUTLOOK...

Wed...No sig wx expected.

Thu-Sun...Isold pm tsra impacts possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...Grumm
LONG TERM...Ceru
AVIATION...RXR



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