Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 280542

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
142 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Dry weather can be expected today and Saturday as high pressure
builds across the area. Unseasonably warm conditions will return
by Saturday with highs in the 60s to mid 70s. The next cold front
will bring a chance of showers to the area Saturday night or


A few bands of --shra --shsn slicing across the cwa esp in the
central mtns. The central mtns are actually the first locations
which meso mdls take the llvl rh from. Thus, don`t expect the
sprinkles/flurries to last much longer there. The nrn border and
the Laurels will be the last to get rid of the low clouds and any
light precip. The sunshine will only help temps get so high with
8H temps sub-zero to start the day. Mixing does get 8H temps to
+2 or 3C. Thus maxes will likely be in the m40s N/NE but could get
in the m-u50s in the far srn sections. Winds will probably still
be breezy in the morning and early aftn, but the sfc high builds
into wrn PA by the end of the afternoon and the wind should
diminish late in the day in the W.


Friday night will be mainly clear with light winds under high
pressure. Mild weather will return on Saturday with 850 mb
temperatures forecast to rise back above +10 allowing surface
temperatures to climb into the 60s with 70s east of the mountains.
The next front approaching from the northwest may trigger a few
showers over the northern mountains late in the day, with showers
spreading southeast across the state Saturday night as the front
drops south from the Great Lakes toward Pennsylvania.


Models are in good agreement with a mild and reasonably quiet
weather pattern through the period. Showers are possible on Sunday
as a slow moving cold front sags south across the area. High
pressure will bring dry conditions with near seasonable
temperatures on Monday... highs will be mostly in the 50s with
some 60s in the southeast. High pressure over the southeast U.S.
will bring dry mild weather Tuesday through Wednesday with
temperatures returning to above normal levels. ECMWF/GFS and GEFS
are in good overall agreement with this pattern and confidence is
above normal.


The cold front is entering my far eastern zones and most
terminals are MVFR as of 11PM. As the front progresses east of
the area in the wee hours, a gusty WNW flow will develop.

The MVFR conditions will improve to VFR east of the mountains at
MDT and LNS while OCNL MVFR conditions will tend to linger over
central terminals, with IFR/MVFR conditions persisting longest in
the mountains at BFD and JST. A few sprinkles or flurries could
even occur at BFD overnight.

Conditions will improve to mostly VFR at all terminals by Friday
afternoon with a west-northwest wind of 10-20 kt with a few
higher gusts.


Sat...No sig wx expected.

Sun...Showers/low cigs possible, esp N and W.

Mon-Tue...No sig wx expected.




NEAR TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...La Corte is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.