Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 190539
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1039 PM MST Thu Jan 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM MST Thu Jan 18 2018

The High Wind Watch for the I-80 corridor between CYS-LAR has been
cancelled. Wind gusts to 55 MPH look to be a possibility overnight
as H75 flow increases to 45-50 knots, but generally modest low-lvl
gradients along the Laramie Range point to low confidence in winds
getting higher than that. The HRRR also keeps winds well below our
warning criteria. That said, and with time running out to make any
kind of decision, we decided not to upgrade to a Warning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM MST Thu Jan 18 2018

Mainly quiet weather expected over the CWA through Friday night
other than some strong winds in the wind-prone areas such as the
Bordeaux and Arlington areas at times. Still not looking too
promising for the stronger winds over the South Laramie range but
will keep the High Wind Watch up and see if new model data/trends
necessitate an upgrade. One more mild day across the CWA Friday
with max temps generally in the 50s outside of the mtns, with a
few lower 60s possible over the southern Neb Panhandle. Varying
amounts of high cloudiness will be over the area as ample moisture
stream over the region ahead of an upper trough that will reach
the west coast by late in the day. This system will bring a
significant change to our weather beginning Saturday as it
progresses over the desert SW and begins closing an upper low. Lee
cyclone will deepen over eastern Colorado during the day Saturday
and colder air will move south across the CWA. Expect to see snow
reach the far western and northwest parts of the CWA during the
day Saturday, initially over the higher mtns. Have posted Winter
Storm watches for those areas beginning Saturday as moderate to
heavy snowfall should begin in those areas at that time. Far se Wy
into most of the Panhandle should see pcpn hold off until late in
the day.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM MST Thu Jan 18 2018

Widespread snow will continue over the CWA Saturday night into
Sunday before tapering off late in the day. Should see decent
accumulations over most of the CWA, particularly western and
northern areas. May be some problems with blowing snow Sunday as
the surface low wraps up over Kansas and produces a healthy breeze
mainly east of the mtns. Clearing out Sunday night with generally
cool conditions Monday through Thursday. Weak impulses should
bring some periods of snow showers to mainly the mtns early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1037 PM MST Thu Jan 18 2018

VFR. Sky conditions generally SCT-BKN around 15k-25k feet AGL thru
the TAF period. Wind gusts to 40 knots possible over the southeast
WY terminals on Friday, mainly west of the Laramie Range.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM MST Thu Jan 18 2018

Anticipate no Fire Weather concerns into at least early next week
with weather factors remaining non-critical. Mild again on Friday
then colder over the weekend with a winter storms system bringing
significant snow to much of the area especially Saturday night
into Sunday.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday
     afternoon for WYZ101-102-106-107-110-114.

     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday
     afternoon for WYZ103>105-109-111-112.

     High Wind Warning until noon MST Friday for WYZ110.

     High Wind Warning until noon MST Friday for WYZ106.

NE...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...TJT/RE
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...RE


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