Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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251
FXUS63 KDMX 262053
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
353 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight/
Issued at 353 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Surface low situated across the western high plains with a warm
front/inverted trough feature extending northeastward into
northern MO. Some peaks of sun have burst through at times today
that has allowed for some surface heating. A nominal amount of
SBCAPE has built in across the far south central with effective
shear on the order of 30-40kts. Shortwave trough ejecting
northeastward through the CWA helping to fire some storms in
vicinity of the developing surface low across NE KS. This activity
is expected to expand north and east near that surface boundary
and into southern Iowa this evening. As the surface low lifts
northeastward through the CWA showers and isolated storms expected
to spread through the eastern CWA by late evening into the
overnight hours. Some lighter showers possible across the
north/west as an area of theta-e advection lifts northwest
through the CWA.

Some chance for a strong to severe storm in the far south if can
get development far enough north, given the weak instability and
strong shear. Hail and winds would be the main severe threats.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Friday/
Issued at 353 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Shortwave to push east of the area into Saturday thus allowing
much of the precipitation to lift east of the area in the morning
hours. Main upper level trough to push east region which could
allow for a few isolated storms still in the east/south through
the day. Otherwise a weak boundary remains in place across the
south and could see additional convection in that area into Sunday
and Monday. Broad upper level ridging to build across the central
US into next week. A few ridge riding shortwave impulses to move
through during the week, and as a result have left in a smattering
of pops through the week. This will also allow for some heat to
build back in with the ridge building more into the end of the
week. Thus the storm track should begin to push north with
temperatures pushing back above the seasonal averages for this
time of year.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon/
1242 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Ceilings will gradually lower at all TAF sites as an area of
SHRA/TSRA overspreads the state tonight from southwest to northeast.
Have gone MVFR at all TAF sites...but would not be surprised to see
at least a brief period of IFR conditions due mainly to ceilings
overnight especially after 08Z and lasting through approximately 12Z
Saturday. Precipitation will gradually end from southwest to
northeast during the day on Saturday.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Beerends
LONG TERM...Beerends
AVIATION...Zogg



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