Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 010456
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1156 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 335 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Pulse storms have been occurring for much of the day across
portions of the cwa, especially in extreme eastern IA and nw and
western IL. Shear is weak but when a storm encounters a boundary a
brief spin up or funnel cloud develops. Locally heavy rainfall has
also been reported with PWAT`s of 1.4 inches. SBCAPES have been in
the 1000-1500 J/KG range. 3 pm temperatures in the cwa ranged from
the mid 60s in our eastern counties to the lower 80s in our west.

Elsewhere, a line of thunderstorms extended from western WI to
central IA along/ahead of a cold front. Ahead of the front dewpoints
were in the lower to mid 60s but were in the 40s behind the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Forecast focus on thunderstorms through Wednesday morning
associated with a cold front, as we begin meteorological summer.

Tonight, CAMs indicate numerous showers and thunderstorms should
accompany a cold front that will move slowly across the cwa.
Shear will remain weak this evening when we have the better
instability so most storms should remain below severe levels.
However, can`t rule out a couple of severe storms with 60 mph
winds and 1 inch hail possible. Locally heavy rainfall and
frequent lightning will also accompany the storms. PWAT`s increase
to over 1.50 inches this evening. Pops will remain in the 60-80
percent range across the cwa. Minimum temperatures are expected to
be mainly in the lower to mid 60s.

Wednesday, operational models have sped up the cold front somewhat so
most of the showers and storms will exit the cwa in the morning.
Redevelopment along the front should occur in the afternoon with
heating but mainly east of the cwa. However, our far eastern
counties may still have a chance of storms in the afternoon before
the front exits the area. There is a marginal risk of severe
storms in our far eastern cwa but the more organized storms should
develop in Lower MI, northeast IL and into eastern MO at peak heating.
Maximum temperatures should be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Forecast focus on a chance of thunderstorms returning Friday night
and Saturday, otherwise mainly dry and pleasant.

Wednesday night through Friday, a mainly dry period with a wnw
flow aloft bringing comfortable humidity and temperatures about
normal to slightly above. Highs should be in the upper 70s to
lower 80s with lows in the pleasant 50s.

Friday night and Saturday, a potent upper level storm system will
track across the Upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. A strong cold
front will push through the Midwest. The severe potential will
hinge on the timing, instability and shear which is uncertain this
far out. Something to monitor anytime you have a strong northwest
flow system in June. Highs are forecast to be around 80.

Sunday through Tuesday, northwest flow aloft with a deep trough in
the northeast United States and ridge in the Rockies. This looks
to be a dry period with comfortable humidity and temperatures.
Expect highs to be in the 70s and lows in the 50s which is rather
nice for June.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Wednesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

A line of showers and thunderstorms stretched from KDBQ to KMLI
to KBRL and will exit the terminals by 07 UTC. Expect periods of
MVFR TO IFR ceilings and visibilities especially at KMLI and KBRL
where the heaviest of storm cores is now entering the TAF sites.
Precipitation will exit to the east by 07 UTC with possibly MVFR
ceilings through 09 UTC. Skies will clear from west to east
starting at KCID after 09 UTC. Aviation fog is possible at CID
from 09 to 12 utc. The cold front will exit the taf sits by 12 utc
with winds switching to the west. VFR conditions will prevail
through the remainder of the period.

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Haase
SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Cousins



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