Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 190458
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1058 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 301 PM CST THU JAN 18 2018

The warming trend is well on under way and satellite imagery
shows the snow cover rapidly eroding. Highs tomorrow will be even
warmer with mid to upper 40s likely and some areas possibly
reaching the lower 50s. Warmer temperatures will prevail into
Saturday and Sunday, ahead of strong storm system approaching the
region. Highs by Sunday could be in the 60s south of the Missouri
River.

The main concern through this forecast remains the strong upper-level
storm system that will move across the area Sunday through Monday.
Models remain consistent with the track of the upper low across
northwestern MO with the surface low slightly north of that. This
keeps us right in the warm sector of this storm. The main change
from yesterday is that models have backed off on the amount of
CAPE across the area. Yesterday, the GFS showed 0-3 km MUCAPE
values approaching 500 J/kg. Today the GFS and NAM are about half
as much. Still, the synoptic pattern favors the potential for
showers and storms Sunday afternoon ahead of the main front,
possibly along a pre-frontal trough or elevated cold front. This
may actually be east of the KC area, across our eastern zones. But
wherever showers/storms do develop, they will quickly move east
as the dry slot moves overhead. Despite the weaker instability,
moisture transport is extremely strong into the system. GEFS
anomaly plots show this to be greater than 5 standard deviations
above normal. This leads to precipitable water values between 2
and 3 standard deviations above normal. All of this is ahead of a
surface low that is 2 to 3 standard deviations below normal. This
is indicative of the strong nature to this storm system. And as a
result, feel there is still a decent potential for thunderstorms
with the strong forcing for ascent, highly anomalous moisture and
very strong wind fields. We`ll need to monitor Sunday afternoon
closely for the potential for a high shear low CAPE severe weather
event.

In the wake of this system, temperatures cool back down, but really
just closer to normal values with highs in the lower 40s and lows in
the middle 20s through the middle of the week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1056 PM CST THU JAN 18 2018

VFR conditions continue to prevail with upper-level clouds
streaming overhead and winds primarily out of the SW.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...lg


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