Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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FXUS66 KEKA 272242

National Weather Service Eureka CA
342 PM PDT Thu Oct 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Rains will continue to diminish tonight leading to a
mainly dry day on Friday. Periods of light rain are expected
Friday night and Saturday. The next heavy rain is expected
Saturday night into Sunday.


.DISCUSSION...The shield of moderate rain that affected most of
the area this morning has shifted gradually E and decreased in
coverage and intensity through the day. This was in response to a
short wave that moved into the area and weakened. Clouds have
thinned across the Redwood Coast with breaks of sun expanding
across the N coast interior. Clearing is more substantial offshore
where partly to mostly sunny skies are occurring.

There are a couple of features in the water vapor satellite imagery
which may impact our weather tonight. The first is a rather potent
vorticity max SW of the Bay Area heading NE. This feature may re-
energize the rains over the SE corner of the area, but the feature
is progged to mainly affect areas S of our county warning area
(CWA). The fly in the ointment is another disturbance at about
43N/133W is moving more easterly and doesn`t appear to be handled as
well by the models. This feature has quite a bit of dry air
entrained into it, but cloud tops have been cooling in convection
NE of the center. It looks like main weather impacts from this
feature will remain mostly N of our area. However, the S-SW mid-
level flow ahead of the disturbance may act to bring the S
disturbance farther into our CWA. The evening shift will keep an
eye on all of this for possible updates.

Friday is expected to be mostly dry across much of the area,
although some showers will likely persist over the Yolla Bollys.
Rains will increase again on Saturday as more disturbances round the
base of the broader E Pacific trough. There is still the possibility
of isolated thunderstorms over portions of the area on Sunday. The
latest indications are that any of these will affect the coastal
waters early Sunday, then shift over the S half of the area during
the afternoon. The models drop instability rapidly during this
period, but any breaks in cloud cover will bring local

Rain chances are progged to decrease early in the coming week as
weak ridging occurs over the area. However, this ridging will be
short lived, and PoPs return to at or above climatology by the
middle of next week. Temperatures will remain near normal. /SEC


.AVIATION...VFR to MVFR conditions and light winds will continue at KCEC
and KACV through this evening. The lower conditions will be due to reduced
ceilings and/or visibilities. MVFR to IFR conditions will prevail at KCEC
and KACV overnight and early Friday due to stratus and patchy fog reducing
ceilings and/or visibilities.  VFR to MVFR conditions and light winds to calm
conditions will continue at KUKI through tonight. The lower conditions will
be due to showers or stratus reducing ceilings and/or


.MARINE...Light winds will continue through tonight. Seas will continue to
diminish through Friday. A cold front will move across the region Friday
afternoon and evening increasing the winds and seas across the waters.
A northwesterly swell will increase across the outer waters Friday night
through Saturday evening. Therefore small craft advisories will be in effect
across the outer waters late Friday evening through late Saturday evening.
Seas will increase across the near shore waters Saturday. Small craft
advisories may be necessary across the near shore waters Saturday due to
elevated seas.


     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Friday to 10 PM Saturday for


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