Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
000
FXUS66 KEKA 252240
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
340 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER CALIFORNIA WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THRU TUE) HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA BRINGING HOT TEMPERATURES TO INTERIOR AREAS AND
PLEASANT CONDITIONS TO THE COAST. THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NEAR THE COAST WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER
TONIGHT ALLOWING COASTAL STRATUS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TRAVERSE OVER NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA BEGINNING SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MID-LEVEL CAPPING
STILL LOOKS TO BE TOO STRONG ON SUNDAY TO ALLOW STORMS...SO HAVE
CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST FOR THAT DAY. OTHERWISE SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR STORMS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN
TRINITY AND NORTHEASTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS. MOISTURE RETURN IS STILL QUESTIONABLE AND ANY CLOUD
COVER SPREADING OVER THE REGION WITHIN THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE FACTORS IN WHETHER OR NOT STORMS FORM EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
BEST CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE TRINITY HORN WHERE MID LEVEL
CAPPING WILL BE WEAKEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANY STORMS THAT FORM
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER WEAK AND NOTHING STRONG OR SEVERE IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TUESDAY. RPA

.LONG TERM (WED-FRI)...THE GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAVORABLE
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE
PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN ZONES EVERY DAY NEXT WEEK. THE BULLS-EYE
OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA IN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AND OREGON...WITH TRINITY COUNTY AND DEL NORTE
COUNTY JUST ON THE EDGE. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WHICH COULD TRIGGER CONVECTION AS WELL. THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE SHORT-WAVES REMAIN UNCERTAIN. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH WE WILL HAVE STORMS EACH DAY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A
MID LEVEL STABLE LAYER WHICH MAY SUPPRESS TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...I EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS
WESTWARD INTO DEL NORTE COUNTY AND INCREASED THE COVERAGE ON
WED...THU AND FRI. AS FOR TEMPS...WENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODEL
WHICH INDICATES A SLIGHT COOLING TREND THU AND FRI. THE STRATUS AND
FOG FORECAST FOR COASTAL AREAS HAS BEEN BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY AND
PERSISTENCE. NORTH SURFACE FLOW AND HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY ARE
FAIRLY GOOD INDICATORS THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 21Z...VFR CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA
WITH GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A
THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERIOR. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS BL MOISTURE
INCREASES AND THE WINDS DECREASE. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT VC HUMBOLDT BAY. THINK THAT KCEC COULD
SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW LATER IN THE NIGHT AND THUS...HAVE
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO LIFR THERE AFTER 10Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WITH VSBY REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER TRINITY
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO FU FROM THE SUGARBOWL FIRE BETWEEN WILLOW CREEK
AND HOOPA. STP


&&

.MARINE...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN SHIFTING WESTWARD AND
NORTH THROUGH TODAY AS A THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS ALONG THE COAST.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE MOSTLY IN THE OUTER WATERS AND NEAR PT
ST GEORGE. EXPECT SEAS TO RAMP UP SLIGHTLY TONIGHT DUE TO THE
NORTH WINDS. NORTH WINDS HOWEVER DO NOT LOOK AS STRONG
AS YESTERDAY...SO CANCELED THE GALE WARNINGS DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE OF GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 FT
AT 8 SECONDS TONIGHT...SO HOISTED A WARNING FOR SEAS. NORTH WINDS DO
LOOK TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH BRIEF
GUSTS TO 35 KT AGAIN.

SEAS INSIDE 10NM WILL BE STEEP THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AROUND
6 TO 7 FT AT 8 TO 9 SECONDS. THIS WILL BE BORDERLINE FOR AN
ADVISORY FOR SMALL CRAFT. BUOY 14 WAS JUST OUTSIDE THE
STEEPNESS CRITERIA AT 7 FT AT 9 SECONDS...BUT THINK SEAS WILL
COME UP SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY.

TREND SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IS FOR WINDS AND SEAS TO
DIMINISH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS
WILL MOST LIKELY BE NECESSARY.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY PZZ450-455.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY PZZ470.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.