Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 252236
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
336 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREAS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER SUNDAY...BUT IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY BEFORE
MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE STARTING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO TRINITY
COUNTY AS OF 3PM. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS ARE STRONGER. THERE IS A
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH THERE IS STILL SOME DECENT SHEAR AND THE STORMS ARE
MOVING QUITE QUICKLY. THIS BOUNDARY IS WILL PASS THE AREA BY EARLY
EVENING AND THE SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN. SO FAR TODAY THE STORMS HAVE
REMAINED FAIRLY WEAK.

TONIGHT THE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S TONIGHT IN AREAS THAT MANAGE TO CLEAR...BUT THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MIXING TO KEEP FROST FROM BEING A
THREAT.

SUNDAY THERE MAY BE A COUPLE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING...BUT THESE SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL
LIKELY BE SLOW TO CLEAR...BUT BY AFTERNOON SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY
CLOUDY IN MOST AREAS. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA AND SKIES CLEAR.
THERE MAY BE SOME FOG IN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. ALSO SOME OF THE
VALLEYS MAY COOL OFF ENOUGH TO SEE SOME FROST. FOR NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE TRINITY COUNTY HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME FROST...BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE GET CLOSER AND HAVE A BETTER
IDEA OF HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN PLACE IN ALL COUNTIES.
MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A DRY DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MKK

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MILD AND WET WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL GENERATE
THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN ON TUESDAY. THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
RAINFALL WILL BE FROM CAPE MENDOCINO NORTHWARD. SOUTH OF THE CAPE
THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF. THIS BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE REGION AND CONTINUE TO GENERATE PERIODS OF
RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. AGAIN MOST OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR FROM CAPE
MENDOCINO NORTHWARD. ON THURSDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD...THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL INTENSIFY AND PUSH ONSHORE ON FRIDAY. THIS SLOW MOVING
FRONT WILL GENERATE PERIODS OF RAIN...PERHAPS HEAVY AT TIMES. THE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE
LONG TERM FORECAST...DID DECREASE POPS ON THURSDAY AND INCREASED
THEM FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...BY 2 PM TODAY...THE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAD
SHIFTED NORTH WITH THE CENTER OFF THE OREGON/WASHINGTON BORDER.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION IN THE EARLY
MORNING. THE MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION WAS STRONG WINDS THAT POUNDED
THE REGION AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS QUITE WOUNDED UP. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...RAIN AMOUNTS HAD NOT REALLY BEEN THAT IMPRESSIVE AT
THE MAIN AIR TERMINALS. THE AVERAGE WAS AROUND 0.50 INCHES. A BIG
FLIGHT HAZARD EARLIER TODAY WAS WINDSHEAR ON THE NORTH COAST AS
SUPPORTED BY RADAR VAD (VELOCITY AZIMUTH DISPLAY) WIND PROFILER.
AS EXPECTED...CEC AND ACV TAFS WERE SOMEWHAT TOPSY TURVY AND
CHALLENGING AS CONDITIONS CONSTANTLY CHANGED FROM VFR-IFR.
GUIDANCE KEEPS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TA

&&

.MARINE...THE VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD
AND IS NOW OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN OREGON AND THE WINDS ARE
EASING. WITH THE ISSUANCE OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST...THE GALE
WARNING WAS CANCELLED. THE STORM WARNING OVER OUTER WATERS WAS
CANCELLED EARLIER TODAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE GALE FORCE
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LARGE
STEEP SEAS. THUS HAVE ISSUED A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FOR ALL FOUR
MARINE ZONES VALID UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER
NORTH AND WEAKENS THE WINDS WILL EASE AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&
&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ003.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ450-455-470-475.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&

$$

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