Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 231800 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
100 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Please see the 18Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are in store for area TAF sites through the current
forecast period. For the I-35 sites, south-southwest winds at or
below 10kt will continue this afternoon and evening before a cold
front moves in early Tuesday morning. The cold front and northerly
wind shift should arrive between 05-08Z wind winds initially
increasing to around 10kt. For DRT, southeast winds continue this
afternoon and should then back to a more easterly direction around
24/01Z. The cold front is expected to move in around 07Z at DRT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...
Surface high with light to calm winds and a dry airmass is producing
well below normal temperatures early this morning. An upper level
trough dropping south across the Northern Plains causes a weak brief
lowering of surface pressures in the Southern Plains as the surface
high drifts to the southeast today. Temperatures warm to near normal
or slightly above normal today due to light mainly southwesterly
winds. As the upper level trough moves to upper Mississippi Valley,
it forces a cold front across our area this evening into overnight
with a reinforcing surface high in its wake. No rain is expected with
moisture levels remaining below normal. Temperatures fall several
degrees on Tuesday from today`s readings on cold advection. A tight
surface pressure gradient along with some mixing of moderate winds
aloft indicates breezy conditions with some wind gusts to 25 MPH or
so Tuesday late morning into mid afternoon.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Surface high settles over our area Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Efficient radiational cooling is expected with low temperatures well
below normal. Another upper level trough moves down from Canada on
Wednesday into Thursday. The surface high moves off to the southeast
allowing a warmup to ensue by Thursday. However, it will be short
lived as the upper level trough moves across the Plains, a strong
cold front moves across our area Thursday night into Friday morning.
The recent ECMWF has sped up the trough passage across our area to
Friday night, while the other models have been consistent with an
early Friday passage. The ECMWF has slightly deeper moisture and
have retained slight chance POPs for a few showers for Friday night.
Confidence is increasing that the coldest temperatures of this fall
season are expected Friday through next weekend as ensemble guidance
has narrowed its spread. Temperatures will average 13 to 18 degrees
below normal. Nearly efficient radiational cooling will allow for low
temperatures in the 30s across the much of the Hill Country. Some of
the typically coldest spots may flirt with freezing around sunrise
Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              82  54  76  46  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  81  52  76  44  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     82  52  76  44  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            81  51  72  42  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           83  57  77  48  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        81  51  74  43  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             83  53  78  43  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        81  52  76  44  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   81  51  75  43  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       82  55  77  47  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           84  55  78  48  79 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...24
Synoptic/Grids...TB3
Public Service/Data Collection...Williams


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