Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 112033
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
333 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND IS DRIFTING
WEST. AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH PWS UP TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF DRIER AIR WITH PWS BELOW
1.5 INCHES IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS AIRMASS
WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES FURTHER TO THE WEST. EXPECT THE USUAL SUMMER LATE NIGHT INTO
MORNING LOW CLOUDS MIXING OUT TO AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WITH NO RAIN
DUE TO DRIER AIRMASS. HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR TWO ALONG THE SEABREEZE FOR AREAS NEAREST THE COASTAL PLAINS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO MORE
SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVERHEAD WITH A WARM AND DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT
WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN OF LATE NIGHT INTO MORNING LOW
CLOUDS MIXING OUT TO AFTERNOON SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL SHOW A SLOW WARMING TREND SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY
TUESDAY...A UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FORCING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS PATTERN CHANGE. ALL
MODELS NOW STALL THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN TEXAS. THIS SETS THE
STAGE FOR A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES. FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT MAY
GENERATE MCS`S SENDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS THERE. LATE
IN THE WEEK...THE ECMWF AND NAVGEM INDICATE A SHORT-WAVE
DEVELOPING INTO TROUGH OVER TEXAS. HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. DUE TO INCREASED DAYTIME
CLOUDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A SLIGHT COOLING TREND FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  97  74  98  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69  96  71  97  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  95  71  96  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  94  72  97  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           73  95  76  96  76 /  20  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  96  73  98  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             69  95  71  96  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        70  95  71  96  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  95  74  96  75 /  -   10  -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  94  74  96  76 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           72  95  73  96  74 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




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