Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 301156

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
656 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016


Complex of storms surging south across SAT/SSF in the first couple
hours of the TAF period...with stratiform rain and occasional
lightning resulting in improvements over AUS. A delayed wind shift
at DRT should arrive at 13Z and be followed shortly by VCSH and
possibly some scattered TSRA in the area in the few hours to
follow. Stabilized conditions are expected in the late morning for
a few hours...with a possible midday recovery of low clouds to
MVFR levels before resuming as VFR cumulus. A worked over airmass
should lead to a mostly fair evening, then trending to more MVFR
to IFR CIGS late. Mesoscale models show poor agreement on how fast
he air destabilizes in the wake of this mornings complex, so will
keep the later TAF periods simplified until details become



SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...


Main focus this period will be on the incoming thunderstorm line
that is approaching South-Central Texas this morning. Pockets of
heavy rain are expected as the line moves through and localized
flash flooding could occur given the very saturated soil from
the recent abundant rainfall. A flash flood watch is in place for
the Hill Country and portions of the Edwards Plateau through 1pm. The
flash flooding risk should decrease through the early afternoon as
the line weakens and moves south.

A large MCS developed across the panhandle of Texas last night
and is now moving south towards the Hill Country and northern
I-35 corridor. This line will move in over the next several hours.
Rainfall rates have been around an inch to inch and half with the
southward progressing line. A few showers have also developed
ahead of the line in Kerr and this area (along with the Hill
country) will need to be monitored for local enhancement and
sustainability of stronger updrafts resulting in higher rainfall
totals. Low-level flow is balanced well with the strong cold pool
of the storm complex and this will sustain the current strength of
the complex as it moves south. Pockets of 30-50 mph winds will
also be likely with the line as it moves through.

The complex should slowly weaken through the mid to late morning.
This will likely result in a lull of shower activity across a good
portion of the region through early to mid afternoon as the
atmosphere attempts to recover. Hi-res models have done a poor job
over the past 24 hours, so little confidence is being placed in
them currently. Of the ensembles that do show the current line,
some renewed activity could be possible late afternoon and
evening as a H5 impulse moves over the region helping increase
upper level divergence. In addition to this activity, west Texas
and the Burro Mountain range should also see storm development.
Will need to monitor if this activity can make it off the
mountains and cross the Rio Grande.

Overnight and into Tuesday morning should see a slow decrease of
rain/storms for western areas but continued SW flow aloft and
implied shortwave troughs make it difficult to remove all weather
mention during any period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
again expected Tuesday afternoon under this regime. Will need to
monitor closely if any complexes are able to develop for a more
concentrated rainfall hazard Tuesday.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Sunday)...

More rain is expected mid- to late-week as a weak front stalls
over the region and then a mid- to upper-level low develops and
moves very slowly over Texas. Periods of heavy rainfall could
occur Wednesday into Thursday with more scattered activity late
week and weekend. With area soils so saturated, localized flash
flooding could be a possibility again over a larger swath of the

A deep, closed low developing across northern Mexico by Wednesday is
agreed upon my multi model guidance. Stronger H5 flow along with
ample moisture and a weak front across the region will support
widespread showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into early
Thursday. With PWATS 1.8"-2.0", localized areas of heavy rainfall
could occur. It`s possible that a new flash flood watch could be
issued during this time frame.

The mid- to upper-level low is forecast to get cut-off from the
main flow and will stagnate over Texas late week and early
weekend. This will keep higher rain chances and below normal
temperatures in place. Given the cooler conditions, instability
may be lower and thus convective rainfall rates could be more
difficult to occur. Overall rainfall amounts mid-week to the
weekend could be 2-4 with locally 5 inches. If more sun and
instability was able to occur within the upper-low then higher
rainfall rates could be locally possible. This will need to be
looked at on a day by day basis. Deeper NW flow should develop on
the back side of the slowly exiting low/trough by late weekend
and early next week. This should allow for drier and continued
cooler than normal conditions.


Austin Camp Mabry              85  70  85  70  81 /  70  20  50  40  70
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  85  69  85  69  82 /  70  20  50  40  70
New Braunfels Muni Airport     85  69  85  69  81 /  70  20  50  40  70
Burnet Muni Airport            84  69  80  68  79 /  60  20  50  60  70
Del Rio Intl Airport           88  73  88  73  84 /  30  40  50  60  60
Georgetown Muni Airport        84  68  81  67  80 /  60  20  50  40  70
Hondo Muni Airport             86  72  87  70  82 /  70  30  60  50  70
San Marcos Muni Airport        85  70  84  70  82 /  70  20  50  40  70
La Grange - Fayette Regional   86  71  85  72  84 /  60  10  30  30  70
San Antonio Intl Airport       85  74  85  70  82 /  70  30  50  40  70
Stinson Muni Airport           86  72  85  72  83 /  70  30  50  40  70


Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for the following
counties: Bandera...Blanco...Edwards...Gillespie...Kendall...Kerr...
Kinney...Medina...Real...Uvalde...Val Verde.



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