Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 302325 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
625 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA SITES THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND PICKING
BACK UP TO 10 KNOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. A SURGE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM COULD POP ALONG THE I-35 SITES MID/LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 142 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
A VERY ISOLATED SHOT AT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS
ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE EAST DUE TO A COLD
FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SE CONUS. WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL STEERING WINDS BEING NORTHEAST AND EAST...SOME OF THE SHOWER
AND STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE HI RES MODELS COULD MAKE IT AS FAR
WEST AS THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...AN APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER BASICALLY THE I35 CORRIDOR SHOULD PREVENT
MUCH FROM GETTING ANY FARTHER WESTWARD. ALSO...DRY LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS AS SEEN ON LAPS AND RUC SOUNDINGS WOULD CHALLENGE ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SURFACE SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP THIS EVENING. THEREFORE LEFT THE ISOLATED
MENTION IN FOR THE EASTERNMOST AREAS OF THE CWA.

SHOULD SEE SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORNING BUT
LESS THAN NORMAL WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THE LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY UNOBSTRUCTED SKY SHOULD KEEP LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES
BELOW GUIDANCE AS THEY WERE THIS MORNING.

BEST SHOT AT MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AS
THE CONTINUING WEST COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE COASTAL PLAINS
SEA BREEZE. AN AREA OF ENHANCED QPF WAS NOTED IN THE NAM AND GFS
WHICH MAKES SENSE AS AN AREA OF LIFT ENOUGH TO REALIZE DECENT
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL THINK PWATS ARE A
BIT EXAGGERATED IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS BUT STILL THINK A
BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOUR AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL IN PLAY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT DRIER OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WITH THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO RECEIVE RAINFALL BEING
SATURDAY AS A FORECAST COMPLEX DEVELOPS IN THE PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW CARRIES IT SOUTHWARD. UNSURE ABOUT HOW
FAR SOUTH THIS WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT BUT CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR A WELL SUSTAINED COLD POOL SHOULD AN ORGANIZED
SYSTEM DEVELOP. THEREFORE HIGHLIGHTED THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CWA ON THE PLATEAU FOR THE BEST SHOT AT RAINFALL SATURDAY.

AFTERWARDS...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN RETURNS TO THE SUMMER
DOLDRUMS OF HOT AND DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76 100  76 100  76 /  10  30  20  20   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  99  74  99  73 /  10  30  20  20   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74 101  76 100  74 /  10  30  20  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  99  75  98  74 /  10  30  20  20  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75 101  78 101  78 /  -   10  20  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74 100  75  98  74 /  10  30  20  20   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  98  76 100  75 /  10  30  20  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        75  98  76  99  75 /  10  30  20  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  99  76  99  75 /  20  30  20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  99  78  99  77 /  10  30  20  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74 100  77 100  76 /  10  30  20  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



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