Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 280431
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1131 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT VIS WOULD DROP AT AUS...BUT CURRENTLY TEMPS ARE WARMER AND
DEW POINTS ARE LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THINK THEY WILL NOT COOL
ENOUGH FOR BR TO FORM. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VFR MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

UPDATE...
ALLOWED HEAT ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT. HEAT INDICES HAVE FALLEN BELOW 105
AND WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TONIGHT WILL NOT EXTEND
ADVISORY. HEAT INDICES MAY BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 105 ACROSS
PARTS OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AGAIN MONDAY. HOWEVER...WILL BE
BRIEF AND WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. 18Z MODEL RUNS
INDICATE ONGOING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO
CHANGES NEEDED OTHER THAN TO RE-ESTABLISH SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS
FOR TONIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO A
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES LIFTING A MOIST
AIRMASS WITH PWS UP TO 2.4 INCHES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS. HEAT INDEX VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE 105 TO 109 RANGE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST CWA...AND WILL ALLOW HEAT ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 8 PM.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE RIDGE PATTERN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH DEEP LOW ACROSS ACROSS CANADA AND ASSOCIATED
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS
WEEK. ANOTHER RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF
SUMMER WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDING AROUND PERIPHERY OF RIDGE INTO THE TROUGH WILL
COMBINE WITH COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. OUTFLOW
FROM THE STORMS AND POSSIBLY THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AREAS OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY. GFS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PWATS POOLED 2-2.1 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF A BURNET TO
AUSTIN TO LA GRANGE LINE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOULD NOTE...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE POOL
TUESDAY...WITH QPF SHOWN NOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-10
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING SAN ANTONIO. AT THIS TIME HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THIS FAR
SOUTH...BUT WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH AS THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS.

MODELS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS MOVING BACK WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND PART OF THE DAY THURSDAY
ALONG WITH THE FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN AMPLIFIES OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SENDING THE
FRONT BACK AND DEEPER INTO THE CWA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 12Z
DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW ON TIMING OF THIS AND MOISTURE FIELDS THAN PAST FEW
DAYS. DEEP MOISTURE POOLS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ACROSS
THE EWX CWA...WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CWA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TIMING OF
IMPULSES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT...
BUT GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING FRONT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IT
CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT LOCALLY HEAVY POCKETS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...POSSIBLY CENTRAL AND
WEST...SOMETIME FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAISED POPS INTO
THE SCATTERED RANGE...WITH ADDITIONAL UPWARD TREND IN POPS
POSSIBLE IN FUTURE PACKAGES. TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS UNDER
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...POSSIBLY COOLER IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  99  76  96  75 /   0  -   10  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72 100  73  96  72 /   0  -   10  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  99  73  98  72 /   0  -   -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  97  74  94  73 /   0  -   20  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 100  78 100  77 /   0   0  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  98  75  94  73 /   0  10  20  30  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  98  73  97  72 /   0   0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  99  73  98  72 /   0  -   -   20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  99  76  97  75 /  -   -   10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  97  76  97  75 /   0   0  -   10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  98  75  99  74 /   0   0  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00




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