Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 211156
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
556 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

.AVIATION...
Low CIGs and VIS will continue at all area airports into the early
afternoon. A cold front will move through the region bringing a
chance for showers to the Austin and San Antonio areas. Showers will
move from west to east moving through San Antonio between 18Z and 21Z
and then through Austin between 21Z and 00Z. The front will also
bring a wind shift to the northwest and clear skies.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
Areas of drizzle, fog, and isolated showers will persist through the
morning hours beneath the inversion across the eastern Hill Country,
I-35 corridor from San Antonio to Austin, and areas east of I-35/I-37.
Out west low stratus and fog, occasionally dense, will persist
through the morning.

A pre-frontal trough will move through the western Hill Country,
southern Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande this afternoon resulting in
clearing. The inversion across portions of the northeast CWA is
expected to erode mid to late afternoon as the pre-frontal trough
approaches from the west and deeper forcing in the base of the upper
trough clip the CWA. We anticipate deeper convection and a chance of
isolated thunderstorms to develop 3PM-6PM from Williamson and
eastern Travis counties southeast into portions of Bastrop and Lee
counties. Strong to severe risk should remain northeast of the CWA.
Farther south we anticipate the inversion to hold and then drier air
to filter into the area with the pre-frontal trough. The scattered to
broken line of deeper convection should move east of the CWA by
midnight.

The actual cold front will catch up to the pre-frontal trough and
move through the CWA later evening and overnight with clearing skies.
Sunny on Monday with elevated fire weather conditions. RH values will
dip into the mid teens to mid 20s and winds will be gusty through the
midday before gradually weakening late afternoon.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Dry and seasonal conditions Tuesday and Wednesday, with moisture
remaining to the south of the area. An increase in moisture will take
place south to north Thursday and Thursday night. Initially dry air
in place may be enough to overcome forcing and moisture aloft, but
eventually low chances for showers/drizzle develop Thursday night.
Better chances for showers will come Friday into Friday night as
moisture deepens and forcing strengthens with approach of upper
level trough. That trough is forecast to send a cold front through
the area Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              73  45  66  38  65 /  50  20   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  72  46  65  33  64 /  50  20   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     71  45  66  34  65 /  50  10   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            71  40  62  32  63 /  30   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           72  41  66  36  65 /  -    0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        72  42  64  33  63 /  40  10   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             72  41  68  32  67 /  30   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        71  45  66  35  65 /  50  20   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   73  47  66  36  64 /  40  50   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       72  46  66  36  65 /  40   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           72  45  68  36  66 /  40   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...05
Synoptic/Grids...Runyen



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