Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 202348
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
648 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHRAS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE
CWA WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT HOUR THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET. VCSH INCLUDED IN AUS/SAT/SSF TAFS THROUGH 02Z. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...AND A TEMPO
GROUP INCLUDED AT DRT THROUGH 02Z. HI RES MODELS INDICATING SHRAS
PERSISTING AFTER SUNSET THROUGH 06Z ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY AND
MEXICO...AND HAVE LEFT VCSH IN THE DRT TAF THROUGH THE LATE EVE
HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES...
BECOMING IFR AT SAT/SSF 10Z-14Z AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IFR AT DRT
(ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN DRT TAF). VFR CONDITIONS RE-
DEVELOPING 15Z-17Z ACROSS THE CWA. LESS COVERAGE IN SHRAS ON
SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS
RESIDING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AND MEXICO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINS QUITE MOIST. LAST
NIGHT THERE WERE SIGNS OF DRYING AS THE KDRT RAOB SAMPLED A PWAT
OF 1.81 INCHES BUT THAT QUICKLY CLIMBED BACK UP TO 2.12 INCHES
THIS MORNING. WEAK LIFT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WEST OF
THE AREA...AND THIS IS WHERE THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT THE SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE BULK OF THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 00Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ACTIVITY LINGERING THIS
EVENING. THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BEST LIFT IS ASSOCIATED.

TOMORROW...850 FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS THE 850
HIGH BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND REPLACED BY
INCREASING HEIGHTS TO OUR NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE SHOWING QUICK
DRYING OF THE AIRMASS WITH PWAT VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON DROPPING
TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST TOMORROW FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281 AND WILL NOT NEED TO MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ANYMORE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WILL THEN SHIFT TO A STRONG TROUGH
DROPPING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL SEND A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE QUITE POOR AND THE
THERMAL GRADIENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TUESDAY. WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE
IN THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR LOW RAIN
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  90  72  91  70 /  20  10  -   20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69  90  70  91  68 /  20  10  -   20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  92  71  93  69 /  20  10  -   20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  89  71  90  68 /  20  10  -   20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  88  74  88  71 /  40  30  20  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  90  72  90  69 /  10  -   -   20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  93  71  94  70 /  30  20  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        71  89  71  91  69 /  20  10  -   20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  92  72  92  71 /  20  -   -   20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  92  73  93  72 /  20  10  10  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  93  73  94  72 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32





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