Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 210445 AAC
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1145 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PROVIDE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. MODERATE
S/SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. CONVECTION OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF KDRT AND DISSIPATE BY 07Z. SCATTERED CLOUDS
DEVELOPING AROUND 3K FEET THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE A COUPLE MORE
HOURS OF VFR BEFORE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP WITH MVFR CEILINGS. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR AFTER 15Z. HAVE MAINTAINED THE TEMPO
GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KDRT FROM 13Z-15Z. BREEZY SE WINDS AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO NEAR 10 KNOTS. AFTER 15Z EXPECT S/SE WINDS
TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS
DECREASE AGAIN AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 921 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATE REFLECTS THE ADDITION OF LOW CHANCE EVENING POPS OVER
WESTERN COUNTIES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...AS
INDICATED BY THE NAM AND SOME HIGHER RES MODELS OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS...WILL SPREAD NW TOWARD DRT THIS EVENING. THE 18Z
NAM HAD A DECENT DEPICTION OF QPF FOR THE EVENING STORMS THAT ARE
MAINLY SOUTH OF HWY 90 SO FAR. THE NEWLY ARRIVED 00Z NAM SHOWS
LESS ACTIVITY IN THE EVENING AND MORE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. WE ARE
EXPECTING THE DEEP LAYER OF LOW LEVEL NOCTURNAL WINDS TO DISPERSE
SOME OF THE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...AND SHOW NO
MENTION OF CONVECTION PAST 06Z. SOME COSMETIC CHANGES WERE ALSO
MADE TO SKY CONDITION. THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE
IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD END BY SUNSET OR
SHORTLY AFTER. DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO IMPACT TERMINALS SO
HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS. VRF CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING
THEN LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP 08Z-09Z AT THE I-35 SITES WITH
MVFR CIGS THROUGH 15Z. KDRT COULD SEE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW
CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS SO INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FROM 13Z-15Z. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z. AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD SE WINDS WILL BE NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS.
AFTER SUNSET SHOULD LOOSE SOME OF THE GUSTS WITH PREVAILING WIND
SPEEDS NEAR 15 KNOTS THROUGH 06Z-08Z THEN DECREASING TO NEAR 10
KNOTS. AFTER 15Z S/SE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 25 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...STRAY TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...COMING TO AN END AROUND SUNSET. WARM AND DRY ON
THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. MAX AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HEAT INDEX READINGS 103 TO 108 DEGREES ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD NORTHWEST...CENTERING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WORKING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS AND THE EXPANSION OF THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MAX AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HEAT INDEX READINGS CONTINUE IN
THE 103 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE EAST OF I-35. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78 101  77 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  76 101  75 101  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75 102  74 101  72 /  10  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  98  74  97  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  99  77  99  74 /  30  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  99  77  99  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74 100  74  99  71 /  20  -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76 101  76 100  73 /  10  -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78 101  78  99  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79 100  78 101  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78 101  77 101  75 /  10  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...99





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