Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 162111
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
311 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
Late afternoon surface observations show a weak cold front in place
from just north of Giddings to just north of Pleasanton. East of this
boundary, isolated to scattered showers continue to move from south
to north across the coastal plains and Highway 77 corridor. Most
hourly rainfall totals are around one quarter inch or less. However,
a few spots have picked up close to three quarters of an inch in an
hour with repeated showers moving over the same area.

For tonight, the frontal boundary will gradually slide southward as a
reinforcing surge of surface high pressure moves in from the north.
This should keep the higher rain chances east of the I-35/I-37
corridors tonight. We do expect an increase in warm air advection
just above the surface front to take shape tonight. This will lead to
low clouds spreading north and westward across south central Texas,
with cloudy skies across all areas by Tuesday morning. The warm air
advection pattern strengthens on Tuesday as an upper level low
pressure system approaches from the west. This will lead to
widespread showers along with a few thunderstorms on Tuesday. Highs
will also be cooler with lower 50s in the Hill Country to lower 60s
in the coastal plains. For late Tuesday afternoon and evening, we
can`t completely rule out a strong storm or two across the coastal
plains with a lingering frontal boundary and some lift associated
with the upper level trough. Areas of concern include Karnes, DeWitt
and Lavaca counties. In addition, we could see some locally heavy
rainfall given into Tuesday night given training of cells within a
moist (precipitable water values ~ 1.5") environment. At this time,
we will not mention heavy rain in the forecast or Hazardous Weather
Outlook as the above mentioned areas have not seen any significant
rains recently.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Rain chances continue to remain high across most of south central
Texas on Wednesday as an upper level trough axis continues to
organize to our west. This trough does begin to move east across
Texas Wednesday night and Thursday and we will show decreasing rain
chances from west to east. A much drier weather pattern will take
shape for the end of the work week into the upcoming weekend as the
quality low-level moisture should remain east of the region. We do
expect another upper level trough to move through on Sunday, but
given the lack of moisture, we will only keep a low chance of
rainfall across the coastal plains and Highway 77 corridor on Friday
and Saturday. Sunday is shaping up to be quite windy across the
region as a band of stronger mid-level winds is forecast to move
across central Texas. We have increased wind speeds and will need to
monitor in subsequent forecasts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              54  56  48  61  49 /  30  60  70  60  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  54  57  48  61  49 /  30  60  70  70  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     55  57  49  62  50 /  30  60  70  60  20
Burnet Muni Airport            49  53  45  58  46 /  20  60  70  50  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           54  59  49  65  47 /  -   60  50  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        50  54  46  59  47 /  20  60  70  60  20
Hondo Muni Airport             57  60  50  65  49 /  20  60  70  50  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        54  57  49  62  50 /  30  60  70  60  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   58  61  52  63  53 /  50  60  80  70  50
San Antonio Intl Airport       56  59  50  63  51 /  30  60  70  60  20
Stinson Muni Airport           58  60  51  63  51 /  30  60  70  60  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Williams
Synoptic/Grids...24
Public Service/Data Collection...Treadway



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