Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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000
FXUS65 KGGW 271540
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
940 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVED NNE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. IT/S NOW NORTH AND EAST OF GLASGOW AND
JORDAN WITH THE MOST INTENSE LIGHTNING AFFECTING WOLF POINT.

MOISTURE STREAM LOOKS TO BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHERN
PORTION LIKELY TO DRIFT INTO SASK. HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE ACTIVITY
OVER THE EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING. ADJUSTED POPS/WX ACCORDINGLY.
ALSO COOLED THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES WITH THE ABUNDANT
CLOUDCOVER TODAY. REST OF FORECAST LOOKED GOOD. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS MONTANA OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR BUT AROUND AN INCH OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER...SHOULD RESULT IN SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. ISOLATED STORMS OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE EXPECTED TODAY WITH APPROACH OF THE LOW.
COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND A COLD FRONT DROPS OUT OF
CANADA.

COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH THE TROF MOVING
EAST AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN EDGE OF THE
CWA WHERE THE FRONT HANGS UP. EBERT


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GET STARTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
COMING IN TO THE SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE CLOSED LOW WILL TRANSITION INTO AN OPEN
WAVE AS IT SLIDES EAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS. WITH THE CWA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
AND SOUTHERN INFLUENCE FROM THAT UPPER LOW THERE IS ROOM FOR
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ALSO BRING RISING HEIGHTS AND LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS +20C 850MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST ZONES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE ARGUMENTS
WILL HAVE HIGHS REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 70S NEAR THE NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER AND MID 80S FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A NEW PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST PROVIDING DIFFLUENT UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS ENERGETIC SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
PUMP IN PACIFIC MOISTURE AND SO SEE NO REASON NOT TO CARRY CHANCE
POPS TO FINISH OUT THE EXTENDED AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
VERY REASONABLE. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SORT OF SETUP BUT THAT PICTURE WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR AS THIS
FEATURE APPROACHES THE SHORT TERM. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL
SPREAD THIS FAR OUT INTO THE LONG RANGE...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO
OFFER MUCH DETAIL WITH ANY CONFIDENCE. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE TAF
CYCLE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE SHOULD A STEADIER
THUNDERSTORM PASS DIRECTLY OVER A TAF SITE. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PERSIST AT 5 TO 10 KTS BUT MAY BECOME VARIABLE AND GUSTY NEAR ANY
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. MALIAWCO/MICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




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