Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 242019
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
219 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Mon...

Synoptic Setup: short term begins with a large trough over the
Upper Intermountain West and High Plains of the CONUS running
north into the Canadian Prairies. A ridge runs north from the
California coast through the Pacific Northwest and into Canadian
Rockies.

This afternoon through tonight: Trough exiting the area will be
slow. A few isolated showers will be possible with the surface
airmass not evacuating the moisture from the region. Areas that
include possible showers are over the Big Sheeps and Wibaux
Plateau.

Monday: Ridge to the west will begin to push up against the trough
forming a northerly flow pattern aloft. This should work to
partially dry out the mid layers which will clears skies and
raise surface temperatures slightly. GAH


.LONG TERM...Mon night through Sun...

AFTERNOON UPDATE:
Few changes were made to going forecast. Noted that upper ridge
that moves east across the area late this week becomes quickly
overtaken by a fast moving jet stream that cuts across the Pacific
Northwest and into Montana over the weekend. TFJ

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION:
By Monday evening, the slow-moving low pressure trough will have
consolidated into a small, upper- level closed low center directly
over eastern Montana. Most of the precipitation associated with
this trough will have already exited eastward out of the state,
but a few lingering light rain showers will be possible south of
the Yellowstone River valley through Tuesday. It won`t amount to
much more than a few sprinkles if anything at all.

Late Tuesday through late Thursday, another re-enforcing low
pressure trough in NW flow aloft from the Canadian Rockies will
glance our NE corner with a few raindrops late Wednesday night.

Early Friday through Saturday, high pressure will be in control
over our region, bringing warmer and drier weather to NE Montana.

Late Saturday and beyond, a bit more Pacific moisture and more
zonal flow aloft may signal the return of a more unsettled weather
pattern to begin the month of October.

BMickelson


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CAT: VFR - MVFR.

SYNOPSIS: Surface trough will be slow to exit the area overnight.
This will leave MVFR ceilings over KSDY and KGDV through roughly
the early evening hours which will rise to VFR by midnight.

WINDS: Light and variable through tonight... becoming southerly
around 10 kts Monday at sunup.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow



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