Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KGGW 072058
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
158 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH WIND WARNINGS WILL BE EXPIRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

STORM SYSTEM MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TAKE IT`S TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AS WELL.
PRESSURES ARE STILL RISING NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER BUT
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DECOUPLE ABOUT 5 PM AND ALLOW
WINDS TO SIGNIFICANTLY DROP OFF.

UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST THEN BUILDS EAST BUT BAROCLINIC NW FLOW
WILL REMAIN OVER NE MT INTO TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY, THE GFS BRINGS A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE NE ZONES. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA MOSTLY DRY WHILE THE NAM DROPS MOST OF THE
QPF INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

CONSEQUENTLY, RAISED POPS A BIT INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE
NE ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS A BIT TRICKY AS
THERE IS FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING. BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING IN ALL AREAS BY THE
AFTERNOON. TFJ

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WERE SLIGHT TWEAKS TO INCREASE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIODS. IT APPEAR THAT THE RIDGE
TO THE WEST WILL HAVE MORE INFLUENCE AND AS A LARGE CHUNK OF SNOW
COVERAGE HAS SUBLIMATED OR MELTED OUT WITH THE PASSING HIGH WINDS
MODELS HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE TEMPS IN THEIR ENSEMBLES AND WE MOVES
ALONG WITH IT. THURSDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT POPS SEEM TO HAVE
SETTLED MORE ON THE TIME PERIOD OF THURSDAY NIGHT MORE
SPECIFICALLY AND CHANCES HAVE RISEN AS THE SHORTWAVE SNAPS MORE IN
FOCUS AMONG ENSEMBLES. A SECOND PERIOD AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT IS
ALSO APPEARING TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN FOCUS FOR AN OVERRUNNING
EVENT. AND POPS WERE SHOVED UP DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. GAH
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST WITH ANOTHER TROF
PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND.

LEE TROF/QUASI ARCTIC BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A FEW RIPPLES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES DROPS THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON TIMING AND IF THE WAVE WILL PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION
SO KEPT POPS LOW.

FORECAST IS THEN DRY AND MILD FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER TO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER STRONG
PACIFIC TROF PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND.
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS: A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD
CALM NEAR SUNSET. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. SOME LOW MVFR CLOUDS WILL MAINLY STAY EAST OF KSDY
TODAY.

SURFACE WINDS: FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY AT 25-35KTS
GUSTING TO 50KTS AT TIMES... DIMINISHING QUICKLY TO LESS THAN 10
TO 15 KTS AFTER SUNSET.

 /GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DAWSON...
EASTERN ROOSEVELT...MCCONE...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...
WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.