Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 020231
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
831 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

UPDATED THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM FORECAST TONIGHT SIMPLY TO FINE
TUNE POPS AND SKY GRIDS. MODEL AGREEMENT IS EXCELLENT AND WITH THE
NEXT SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE QUICKLY MOVING OVER OUR NW ZONES EARLY
THURSDAY...FELT IT WAS WARRANTED TO INCREASE POPS THERE A BIT
MORE. REST OF THE FORECAST ALSO LOOKS GOOD. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THIS PERIOD.

AN BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ONE SYSTEM DEPARTING THE AREA TODAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL DROP
IN THURSDAY. THEN THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST PUSHES FURTHER
INLAND.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHTER WINDS THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL KICK UP NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE
MORNING LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS AS TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK QUITE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING FOR
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
IN MOST AREAS TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

ON FRIDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL MT AS THE
PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE PUSHES EAST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND 50S. TFJ

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

UPDATE...THE INHERITED FORECAST CONTINUES TO REFLECT WHAT THE
CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE IN STORE FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...THEREFORE NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE WARRANTED. WIND SPEEDS
WERE INCREASED A BIT OVER THE CWA WITH THE PASSING OF EACH
PREDICTED SHORTWAVE. AEC

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE TROUGH RUNS FROM NUNAVUT
THROUGH MANITOBA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A LARGE RIDGE IS
CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA AND ITS INFLUENCE SPREADS OUT OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. NORTHEAST MONTANA SETS BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UP STREAM THE FLOW BENDS
BACK OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY AND WARM SLIGHTLY
AND THE WARMER... STABLE SIDE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAINTAINS
CONTROL OVER THE AREA.

SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD... MODEL CONFIDENCE BREAKS DOWN AND GOES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR MESOSCALE FEATURES. AFTER A WEAK RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA ROUGHLY MONDAY MORE CHAOS SNEAKS INTO THE FLOW.
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS FROM SHORTWAVES OCCUR FROM HERE ON. FLOW
MAY GAIN A SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL PATTERN WHICH FARTHER INCREASES THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS FROM FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES AND THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR CHANGE IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED HIGH MVFR POSSIBLE.

SYNOPSIS: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS BRINGING ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND A DRAMATIC WIND
INCREASE.

CEILINGS: WILL LOWER OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS OF THE TAF
CYCLE WITH PERIODS OF BRIEF HIGH MVFR POSSIBLE FROM 15 TO 21Z.
CHANCE FOR MVFR IS CURRENTLY NOT HIGH OR PERSISTANT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF DIRECTLY.

SHOWERS: RAIN SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED POST FRONTAL PASSAGE... BUT
COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY TOO SPARCE TO PLACE DIRECTLY IN THE TAFS. RAIN
WILL LIKELY BE ADDED AT A LATER TIME AS ECHOS APPEAR ON RADAR.

AREA WINDS: LIGHT AND OUT OF THE WEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT... VEERING TO WEST AND RAMPING UP TO 10 TO 20 KTS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS POST PASSAGE... THEN INCREASING TO SUSTAINED 20 TO
30 KTS GUSTING TO 40 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A SLOW RAMP
DOWN IS THEN ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.

GAH

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...
MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





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