Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 301451 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
851 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE HIGH PARKED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BECOME THE MAIN FEATURE TODAY...AND FOR
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TODAY THERE IS STILL A MINOR LOW
PRESSURE AREA SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THAT IS BEING FED
MOISTURE FROM A STRONGER LOW TO OUR SOUTH. THIS HAS CREATED A
BRIDGE OF CLOUDS THAT IS MAINLY AFFECTING OUR WESTERN ZONES. THIS
FEATURE WILL DIMINISH IN STRENGTH THIS EVENING...LEADING TO MORE
CLEARING. GRID EDITS WERE MAINLY TO ALIGN TO OBSERVATIONS.  SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SETUP... NORTHEAST MONTANA BEGINS IN THE MIDDLE OF A
SPLIT FLOW WITH A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
WYOMING AND A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OVER ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. TO
THE WEST A WEAK RIDGE SETS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. FARTHER WEST A LARGE RIDGE IS FORMING OFF THEIR COASTS.

TODAY... RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND PUSH THE WEAK
TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA... KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL FOR
ONE MORE DAY AS SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD IN OVER
ALBERTA AND PUT NORTHEAST MONTANA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THIS IS A VERY UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA PUMPING IN
DRY AIR ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE REVERSED FROM, THE
SOUTHWEST WITH DOWNSLOPE BRINGING IN DRY AIR AS WELL. EXPECTED
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. GAH


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN WITH THE NEXT TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING THIS LOW AND SPREADING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO MONTANA...BUT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATION RESULT IN LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SPECIFICS. WILL PUSH BACK
THE INTRODUCTION OF POPS TO FRIDAY NIGHT THEN SPREAD THEM EAST
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER...ALSO EXPECT A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING GOOD
FLYING WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS PREVAILING
ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



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