Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 031000
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
300 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 40 BELOW WILL IMPACT NORTHEAST
MONTANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

WITH THE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS HAVING NOW MOVED SOUTH OF OUR
CWA...FORECAST CHALLENGE NOW FOCUSES ON WIND CHILL CONCERNS
CONTINUING TODAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LATEST MODELS CONSIDERATIONS AND ANALYSES KEEPS WIND CHILL VALUES
IN THE ADVISORY RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD OF CONCERN. CURRENT WIND
CHILL ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD AND WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE THAT HEADLINE
TODAY...EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE A BRIEF RESPITE TODAY DURING THE
MID-DAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WIND
WILL HAVE A SIMILAR IMPACT EVEN IF THE TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY
TODAY.

THIS SUDDEN COLD SPELL...HAVING BEEN DELIVERED TO THE REGION BY
WAY OF A LONG AND EXTENSIVE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS WHICH
STRETCHES FROM THE NUNAVUT REGION OF NORTHERN CANADA ALL THE WAY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND DOWN OVER LOS ANGELES.
THIS DELIVERS A SHOCK OF COLD AIR DIRECTLY OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...THIS ARCTIC AIR MASS BECOMES
DISPLACED EASTWARD BY AN ADVANCING WARM AIR MASS FROM THE WEST.
THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING A SUDDEN AND WELCOME
RELIEF WITH NEAR CONSTANT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE
20S BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS
ARE IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE A MILDER WNW FLOW COMING OFF THE
PACIFIC INSTEAD OF THE CURRENT FLOW FROM THE ARCTIC.

MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT. THE WAVE COULD BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF EITHER RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE STATE. MODELS STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF WANTS
TO TAKE THE WAVE THROUGH WEST AND CENTRAL MONTANA WHILE THE GFS
WANTS TO TAKE THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHEAST MONTANA. AT THIS
POINT... NEITHER SCENARIO BRING MOISTURE TO NORTHEAST MONTANA. WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON MONDAY THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE OVER ALBERTA WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15
TO 15 KNOTS TODAY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE AREA.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR.

CIGS AND VSBY: SKIES WILL VARY FROM MOSTLY CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
THIS MORNING WITH A MIX OF MID LEVEL VFR CIGS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR
DECK AROUND 2000 FEET. MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CIGS NEAR THE MVFR-VFR THRESHOLD
OF 3000 FEET ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PETROLEUM...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...
SHERIDAN...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




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