Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 270958
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
558 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND MOVES OFF THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
RETURN. COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

555 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST
MESONET IN 1ST PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
A HUMID SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AROUND
PERIPHERY OF OFFSHORE HIGH. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
80S...WITH A FEW 70S NEAR THE COAST AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM THE 00Z SOUNDINGS WERE
PLUS TWO TO THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS AND PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
THREE TO FOUR STANDARD DEVIATIONS TODAY. A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY...PROVIDING SOME
WEAK FORCING OVER OUR FAR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCE WITH CAPES AT OR
BELOW 1000 J/KG. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER CONVECTION SHOULD BE
FROM CONNECTICUT VALLEY NORTHWARD TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
REGION OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE...WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS LATE TODAY. OTHERWISE...TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME WIDELY SCATTERED TONIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. IT`LL BE A HUMID NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND
HAZE. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. ON THURSDAY...WE`LL QUICKLY
DESTABILIZE WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH
SOME HEATING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DEVELOP WITH SUFFICIENT
FORCING AND SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

A MILDER RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD ON SATURDAY.
VERY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COASTAL SEA BREEZE
AND ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE WIND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS MAY
TRIGGER SOME GUSTY STORMS. THE EURO AND CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING CLOUDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER TO FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS DURING THE DAY. THE GFS REMAINS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...BRINGING DRY AND COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO NEW
ENGLAND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR TODAY IN SHRA AND TSTMS. SOME TSTMS
COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. VFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN
FOG AND HAZE...IFR PSBL VCNTY OF KRKD AND KAUG AFT 06Z IN MARINE
STRATUS AND FOG. AREAS OF MVFR EXPECTED THU IN SHRA AND TSTMS.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH AREAS OF IFR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED IN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT. CURRENT SCA MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASED SOUTHWEST GRADIENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THUS FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LOWER THAN IT HAS BEEN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
ES



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