Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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054
FXHW60 PHFO 141949
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
949 AM HST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS EARLY IN THE
WEEK WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY OVER
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. DRIER WEATHER AND LIGHTER TRADE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED FAR NE OF THE AREA PLACING THE ISLANDS
IN A LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE TRADE WIND ENVIRONMENT. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS JUST A FEW SHOWERS AROUND MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE STATE.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED
MILES NW OF KAUAI. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE FRONT REACHING KAUAI ON MONDAY AND SLOWLY MOVING DOWN THE
ISLAND CHAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING NW OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH RATHER BREEZY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THESE WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE FRONTS MOISTURE WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. THE TRADE WINDS
WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO BLOW SOME SHOWERS OVER TO LEEWARD
AREAS AT TIMES.

DRIER WEATHER WITH A BIT LIGHTER TRADE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST AREAS TODAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN
SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG WINDWARD FACING SLOPES...AS WELL AS OVER
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.

NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS ARE WITHIN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. A GALE WATCH IS POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE BIG ISLAND AS TRADE WINDS MAY BECOME
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTH.

A NEW WEST-NORTHWEST WILL PEAK TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY LOWER THROUGH
THURSDAY. STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SURF ALONG EAST
FACING SHORES BY MID-WEEK...AND THIS SURF MAY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.
A MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND A LARGE NORTHWEST
SWELL IS POSSIBLE NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU
KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-KONA-KOHALA.

GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR
KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD
WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL.

&&

$$

BURKE



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