Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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FXHW60 PHFO 262013
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1013 AM HST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY AND COOL TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER
MAINLY OVER NORTH THROUGH WEST SLOPES. MORE TYPICAL TRADE- WIND
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN GRADUALLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY. LOW CLOUDS RIDING THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING PASSING SHOWERS
TO NORTHWEST COASTS AND SLOPES OF KAUAI TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AFFECT NORTHWEST SLOPES OF THE OTHER ISLANDS.

LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE... PRODUCING TODAY/S NORTHWEST
WINDS... WILL PUSH FARTHER NORTH TONIGHT AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL TURN ISLAND WINDS OUT OF
THE NORTH SATURDAY AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC... NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. ANY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THIS WEEKEND WITH THE MAJORITY FALLING OVER NORTH AND
NORTHEAST FACING TERRAIN...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINS
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN WINDS MONDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST
WINDS AND LIMITED WINDWARD SHOWERS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEA BREEZES FORMING IN THE AFTERNOON FROM
OAHU TO THE BIG ISLAND. THE FRONT WILL REACH KAUAI SOMETIME
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY OVER KAUAI AND
INCREASING TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FILL IN OVER
THE REST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG NORTHERN SLOPES
WITH THE TERRAIN AIDING THE FORMATION OF SHOWERS.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WET WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK WITH GLOBAL
MODELS HINTING AT INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE ENTERING THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE EAST... AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING
DOWN FROM THE NORTH. AS USUAL... LONG TERM FORECASTS OF THIS
NATURE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE AS THE MODELS BOUNCE FROM ONE FORECAST
TO THE NEXT.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURF HEIGHTS ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. A MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL
SHOULD ARRIVE TONIGHT...PEAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND DIMINISH
SUNDAY. A SHORT PERIOD NORTH SWELL WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND
DECREASE INTO TUESDAY. A NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHWEST SWELL IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WIND SPEEDS AND COMBINED SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE THRESHOLD FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
THE PENDING MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL MAY LIFT COMBINED SEAS TO
NEAR THE ADVISORY LEVEL BRIEFLY OVER EXPOSED COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.


&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
FOSTER...AVIATION





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